? Whenever you talk about how far the Chargers are going to advance, it has to begin with league MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. From a personnel standpoint this will not be the best defense he sees this season, but it will be the best coached and the most fundamentally sound. It will be interesting to see if the Chargers did some self scouting during their bye week. The Patriots will rely on a lot of computer printouts to determine when and where the Chargers will run the ball. According to coaches of the Arizona Cardinals, whom the Chargers played in Week 17, the Chargers have tendencies that are clear on tape. If that is the case, the Patriots will know. The biggest tendency we saw was that TE Antonio Gates is rarely ever at the point of attack in the run game. New England will see this too and overload its defense to the weak side of the formation.
? The San Diego offensive line has been much better than we ever imagined it would be. This week it will get a huge test from a Patriots 3-4 defense that features three excellent players up front in RDE Richard Seymour, NT Vince Wilfork and LDE Ty Warren. All three are loads to move at the point of attack. They will look to eat up blocks in an attempt to open inside run lanes for ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel to run through. A lot of teams have been blitzing ILBs vs. the Chargers in an attempt to make Tomlinson change directions in the backfield. The big key this week for the Patriots defense will be containment. If the Patriots defense has one weakness, it is a lack of speed. For that reason we do not expect the Pats to blitz Bruschi and Vrabel as much because that would only force Tomlinson to the edge, which they don't want.
? Despite being a run-first, pass-second offense this season, the Patriots came out throwing last week. We look for them to take that same approach this week. The Chargers have the best front seven the Patriots have seen all season. The Patriots won't be able to run the ball until they get that defense loosened up a little bit. We loved the Patriots' approach last week and think that same game plan will be packed up and shipped to San Diego. The Patriots used a lot of shotgun formations last week and will again this week vs. OLBs Shawne Merriman (17 sacks) and Shaun Phillips (11 sacks). Tom Brady has an extremely quick release. That release, along with the shotgun formation, should give him the time he needs to get the ball out of his hand before the rush can get to him.
Light? Patriots LOT Matt Light really has struggled of late. Light has had trouble in pass protection and he has had trouble recognizing blitz pressures. Look for the Chargers to play some two-man stunt games over on the right side with Merriman and RDE Luis Castillo, who are two players who can cause a lot of havoc in the New England backfield.
? You don't hear people talk a lot about the center position, but there will be no player under the spotlight more this week than the Patriots' Dan Koppen. He will be the man who has to get San Diego NT Jamal Williams blocked at the point of attack. Williams is load inside and everything the Chargers do up front and with their linebackers is based on his ability to hold the point of attack. For the Patriots to be able to establish the run game, Koppen must at the very least be able to draw a stalemate inside. He also will be responsible for seeing and diagnosing the inside blitzes that will come from veterans Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey.
? San Diego QB Philip Rivers has not played very well down the stretch. On tape, he looks a little physically and mentally fatigued. We expect the Patriots to mix some 4-3 looks in with their base 3-4 defense. They will bring blitz pressure up the middle to try to get him to move his feet and make plays on the move. They will design and hide coverages in the backend. Because the Chargers have Tomlinson in the backfield and a great defense on the other side, Rivers does not have to be great. However, he must make good decisions and take care of the football.
? One player who can help take pressure off Rivers is Gates. With so few weapons in the passing game on the outside, it is critical that Gates becomes involved early and often. The Patriots might be without SS Rodney Harrison (knee) again, which will put James Sanders in a tough spot in trying to handle one of the best tight ends in the game. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, we hear, has been devising new ways to get Gates involved. We expect the Patriots to counter by doubling Gates with a linebacker underneath and Sanders over the top. The Chargers do not have a pass-catching target other then Gates that strikes fear into anyone, so there will be a chess match here. Cameron will do everything he can to get Gates open and Belichick will try to take him away and make one of San Diego's receivers try to beat him.
Special Teams
The Chargers have one of the best kicking duos in the NFL in PK Nate Kaeding and PT Mike Scifres. Both have been clutch in pressure situations all season. New England counters with rookie PK Stephen Gostkowski, who has been solid of late. We do wonder how he will be able to handle the pressure of a game-winning kick, however. San Diego has the better return game with kickoff returner Michael Turner and punt return man Eric Parker. New England kickoff returner Ellis Hobbs is doing a solid job, but he is not nearly as explosive as the Chargers' return men. This is going to be a close game, and even though the Chargers have the advantage, the Patriots could win or lose based on their ability to win the special teams battle.
Matchups
? New England ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel vs. San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson
? San Diego LOT Marcus McNeill vs. New England RDE Richard Seymour
? New England LOT Matt Light vs. San Diego ROLB Shaun Phillips
? New England SS James Sanders vs. San Diego TE Antonio Gates
? New England head coach Bill Belichick vs. San Diego QB Philip Rivers
Scouts' Edge
This should be one of the best matchups of the divisional round. Belichick has a huge advantage over Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer, who is 5-12 in the postseason. The other major advantage the Patriots have is at QB. Rivers is going to the Pro Bowl and Brady isn't, but who would you rather have leading your team in the playoffs? Our pick would be Brady, who is calm and collected under pressure.
The bottom line is the Chargers will go as far as Tomlinson can take them. The key for the Patriots will be in trying to keep Tomlinson bottled up inside and not let him get on the edges because he has the speed to make the Patriots defense pay. If New England can keep Tomlinson bottled up and get pressure on Rivers, they will win. If Rivers plays well, the Patriots will lose because even though Tomlinson will not run roughshod over them, he will do enough to keep Belichick's defense off balance. This should be a great game. It will come down to QB play and defense. The Patriots have the better QB, but it will be tough for him to put up big numbers vs. a stout San Diego defense with his very limited weapons. For that reason we will take San Diego in a close game.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Patriots 20
? The San Diego offensive line has been much better than we ever imagined it would be. This week it will get a huge test from a Patriots 3-4 defense that features three excellent players up front in RDE Richard Seymour, NT Vince Wilfork and LDE Ty Warren. All three are loads to move at the point of attack. They will look to eat up blocks in an attempt to open inside run lanes for ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel to run through. A lot of teams have been blitzing ILBs vs. the Chargers in an attempt to make Tomlinson change directions in the backfield. The big key this week for the Patriots defense will be containment. If the Patriots defense has one weakness, it is a lack of speed. For that reason we do not expect the Pats to blitz Bruschi and Vrabel as much because that would only force Tomlinson to the edge, which they don't want.
? Despite being a run-first, pass-second offense this season, the Patriots came out throwing last week. We look for them to take that same approach this week. The Chargers have the best front seven the Patriots have seen all season. The Patriots won't be able to run the ball until they get that defense loosened up a little bit. We loved the Patriots' approach last week and think that same game plan will be packed up and shipped to San Diego. The Patriots used a lot of shotgun formations last week and will again this week vs. OLBs Shawne Merriman (17 sacks) and Shaun Phillips (11 sacks). Tom Brady has an extremely quick release. That release, along with the shotgun formation, should give him the time he needs to get the ball out of his hand before the rush can get to him.
Light? Patriots LOT Matt Light really has struggled of late. Light has had trouble in pass protection and he has had trouble recognizing blitz pressures. Look for the Chargers to play some two-man stunt games over on the right side with Merriman and RDE Luis Castillo, who are two players who can cause a lot of havoc in the New England backfield.
? You don't hear people talk a lot about the center position, but there will be no player under the spotlight more this week than the Patriots' Dan Koppen. He will be the man who has to get San Diego NT Jamal Williams blocked at the point of attack. Williams is load inside and everything the Chargers do up front and with their linebackers is based on his ability to hold the point of attack. For the Patriots to be able to establish the run game, Koppen must at the very least be able to draw a stalemate inside. He also will be responsible for seeing and diagnosing the inside blitzes that will come from veterans Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey.
? San Diego QB Philip Rivers has not played very well down the stretch. On tape, he looks a little physically and mentally fatigued. We expect the Patriots to mix some 4-3 looks in with their base 3-4 defense. They will bring blitz pressure up the middle to try to get him to move his feet and make plays on the move. They will design and hide coverages in the backend. Because the Chargers have Tomlinson in the backfield and a great defense on the other side, Rivers does not have to be great. However, he must make good decisions and take care of the football.
? One player who can help take pressure off Rivers is Gates. With so few weapons in the passing game on the outside, it is critical that Gates becomes involved early and often. The Patriots might be without SS Rodney Harrison (knee) again, which will put James Sanders in a tough spot in trying to handle one of the best tight ends in the game. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, we hear, has been devising new ways to get Gates involved. We expect the Patriots to counter by doubling Gates with a linebacker underneath and Sanders over the top. The Chargers do not have a pass-catching target other then Gates that strikes fear into anyone, so there will be a chess match here. Cameron will do everything he can to get Gates open and Belichick will try to take him away and make one of San Diego's receivers try to beat him.
Special Teams
The Chargers have one of the best kicking duos in the NFL in PK Nate Kaeding and PT Mike Scifres. Both have been clutch in pressure situations all season. New England counters with rookie PK Stephen Gostkowski, who has been solid of late. We do wonder how he will be able to handle the pressure of a game-winning kick, however. San Diego has the better return game with kickoff returner Michael Turner and punt return man Eric Parker. New England kickoff returner Ellis Hobbs is doing a solid job, but he is not nearly as explosive as the Chargers' return men. This is going to be a close game, and even though the Chargers have the advantage, the Patriots could win or lose based on their ability to win the special teams battle.
Matchups
? New England ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel vs. San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson
? San Diego LOT Marcus McNeill vs. New England RDE Richard Seymour
? New England LOT Matt Light vs. San Diego ROLB Shaun Phillips
? New England SS James Sanders vs. San Diego TE Antonio Gates
? New England head coach Bill Belichick vs. San Diego QB Philip Rivers
Scouts' Edge
This should be one of the best matchups of the divisional round. Belichick has a huge advantage over Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer, who is 5-12 in the postseason. The other major advantage the Patriots have is at QB. Rivers is going to the Pro Bowl and Brady isn't, but who would you rather have leading your team in the playoffs? Our pick would be Brady, who is calm and collected under pressure.
The bottom line is the Chargers will go as far as Tomlinson can take them. The key for the Patriots will be in trying to keep Tomlinson bottled up inside and not let him get on the edges because he has the speed to make the Patriots defense pay. If New England can keep Tomlinson bottled up and get pressure on Rivers, they will win. If Rivers plays well, the Patriots will lose because even though Tomlinson will not run roughshod over them, he will do enough to keep Belichick's defense off balance. This should be a great game. It will come down to QB play and defense. The Patriots have the better QB, but it will be tough for him to put up big numbers vs. a stout San Diego defense with his very limited weapons. For that reason we will take San Diego in a close game.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Patriots 20
