Screw my 401 k. This is my new retirement account.

[SmashMouth]

My 401k has pretty much crapped the bed so I'm starting a new one at one of my sportsbooks. I started it at $500. Every Monday I will ad $100 to my account.
Every Sunday I will play the following.
3 team parlay for $25
3 team 10 point teaser same teams. For 100

4 team parlay for $25
4 team 6 point tease same teams for $75

1 straight game for $150


Add a 5 team parlay
which I will start at $20 and increase by 10 bucks until I hit it.
I'll also tease those in a 6 pointer for 50 every week.

This is for my entertainment only. My goal is to have $3000 in my account after Super Sunday. We'll see what happens. Plays to follow.

 

[SmashMouth]

Here we go.
401k balance
$500

Straight play
Denver -3 for $150

3 teamer Denver -3
Bears-3
Over 36 in the Dallas game
risk $25 to win $150

Teaser adjust lines to:
Denver +7
Bears+7
Over 26 in the Cowboy game.

Risk 130 to win $100

4 teamer risk $25 to win $250
Saints -1.5 under 50.5
Falcons-4.5 over 36

4 team teaser $75 to win $225
Saints +8.5 under 56.5
Falcons+1.5 Over 30

5 teamer to follow

 

[SmashMouth]

5 team parlay $20 to win $400
Jets-3
Jags pk
Skins+8
Miami-4.5
Arizona -3.5

Teaser 50 to win 250
Jets +3
Jags +6
Skins +14
Miami +1.5
zona +2.5

Comments welcome

 

[SmashMouth]

Need to get this account rolling. Trying to retire by 40.
:thefinger

 

[Jhpga]

The only thing I would think of changing is the Atl teasers.Atl +1 just doesnt sound tooo good.Why not your Bucs + 9.5??????But good luck on your picks!!!!!!

 

[SmashMouth]

No good so far. The 2 things any broker worth his salt will tell you when starting an investment plan are:
1) Patience
2) Diversity
I think the $500 start may be to low. It may take a few weeks to get hot and at this rate I could exhaust the resourses before I see any return on investment. To remedy this situation, I'm going to add another $500 to the account. This gives me a little more wiggle room to ride out a bad streak.

As for Diversity I'm going to start an account for Hockey, NBA and College Baskets, and NBA.

EAch one of these Accounts will have 1k to start. And will have a $100 per week deposit. Obviously I won't start depositing in Nba and college baskets until those seasons start.
So this is how it is going to look.

Nfl Account Start $1000
Week 1 lose 325.00
Week 2 distribution $100
Balance $775

Hockey Account $1000
No plays as of yet

College football $1000.00
First plays this week

Nba Not funded yet.
Ncaa hoops not funded yet.

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Good call on the Pats. Even as a fan (and season ticketholder) I REALLY feel bad about this game. Denver always has our number and we are playing like sh*t right now. I hope and pray we win, but I just don't see it.

Maybe I'll lay a small amount on the Broncos,,,at least that way SOMETHING good will happen, either a Pats win or some change for me..

GL:shrug:

 

[ATX]

The way to diversify is to place large numbers of wagers.
The more games you wager on, the more accurate your results will be to your true handicapping ability (due to bad beats, injuries during games, and other impossible to forsee events that skew results in a small sample size).
Teasers will hurt you in the long run.
The only teasers that historically show positive expectation are only during these conditions:

1. Only bet +100 (even money), 2 team 6 point teasers, and only tease NFL games.

2. Tease home underdogs of +1.5, +2, and +2.5 up.

2. Tease home favorites of -8.5, -8, and -8.5 down.

3. Tease road underdogs of +1.5, +2, and +2.5 up.

If you treat betting on sports similar to playing options in the stock market you can make a pretty penny. Money management above all else is key. This is what I do:

I mainly flat bet. I wager 2% of my bankroll per game on football. I wager between 1% and 2% on basketball and usually only 1% on baseball games. Some few games I do put more on.

I wager on at least 2000 games per year. My goal is to win 55% of those games.

2000 games. 55% winners, 45% losers
1100 wins 900 losses +90 for vig = 990 (lower vig is avail.)
1100 wins -990 losses = 110 profitable games
At an average of 2% per game, well you can do the math...gl

 

[SmashMouth]

Very good info there. Thanks for posting.
That said you can't teach an old dawg new tricks.

Here we go:

Three Team Teaser:
Raiders+ 7.5/ over 44.5/ Jags-.5
risk 130 to win 100

Parlay $25 to win $125
Raiders- 2.5 /Jags-10.5/ Raider over 54.5

More later

 

[SmashMouth]

Here is the 4 teamer. Just a side not when I handicap these 3,4 and 5 teamers, I am trying to hit the teaser. The Parlay is gravy.
That said Here we go

Teaser risk 75 to win 225.
Browns +9
Brown over 35.5
Bills -1
Bill over 43

Parlay risk 25 to win 250
Browns +3
over 41.5 in that game
Bills -7
Over 49 in that game

Can't see the jets winning by more than 3. Can't see the Bills not winning here. the 35.5 over in the brown game looks good. The bills and lions should put up plenty. Imo

 

[SmashMouth]

Straight play
Titans-5.5
82.50 to win 75

5 teamer

30 to win 600
Pats-3
Jags-11
falcons+4
Over 32 in tampa game
over 40.5 in 49er game

Teaser 50 to win 250
Pats +3
Jags-5
falcons+10
over 26 in tampa
over 34.5 in niner game.

 

[DjGuey]

Don't be so sure about the Bills winning. My Lions run D will prevail and they will stop Moulds. I'm just not sure about Peerless Price yet.

Definatly take the over on that game, though.

 

[SmashMouth]

Another tough week in my experiment.
Starting balance last week $775
Weeks losses =$260
Weekly contribution $100
Balance $615.00