sd/ne...

[AR182]

i was in vegas this past week (just got back) & placed my first bet in nearly 3 months on the under in the sd/ne game. i got 49 (pretty big bet) at the venetian monday afternoon...& when i left vegas this morning the line fluctuated between 46 & 46.5. i haven't looked at what the lines are offshore.

there are a few reasons why i like the under in this game..

sd's 3 key offensive players (rivers, lt, & gates) have various injuries & are questionable at best if they play on sunday...& if they do play, they cannot be close to 100%.imo, the key injury is with the qb rivers, who has a bad knee. i can't see rivers being very effective setting up in the pocket & striding forward to throw the ball...so with him at qb i look for short passes...& if he can't play i question how effective volek will be because of his limited playing time this year. so i look for sd trying to run the ball with either lt or turner..which will keep the clock moving & keep the ball away from ne.....here is an article talking about rivers injury...

By Kevin Acee
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

11:56 a.m. January 18, 2008

Philip Rivers' knee injury is more severe than what has been described by the Chargers, and the quarterback has been listed as doubtful for Sunday's AFC Championship Game.
Sources told The San Diego Union-Tribune today the quarterback also has a partially torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in addition to the sprained medial collateral ligament the team has made known.

Rivers practiced today and is still expected to test the knee Sunday morning to determine whether he can play against the New England Patriots.

?It'll be day-to-day,? General Manager A.J. Smith said. ?We're going down the same road as (Antonio) Gates.? Gates played Sunday at Indianapolis after a pre-game workout to test his dislocated big toe, but was largely ineffective. He also has been listed as doubtful for this Sunday's game.

Rivers was on the practice field this morning for the first time this week, wearing a brace on his right knee. There was no brace on his left knee, on which he has played the past 5? games with a sprained MCL. During the portion of practice open to the media, he threw passes with the first team.

?It always falls on the player,? Smith said. ?The doctors and medical people do so much. The coach and general manager are on the outside. The ultimate decisions is the player's ? unless he physically can't go or it will do harm for your future.?

Smith, as he always does, declined to discuss the specific injury. But he said, ?We would never jeopardize any player.?

A sports medicine expert said yesterday it was possible for Rivers to play with a partial tear of his ACL.

?When you get into the category of partial tears, no one really knows,? said Dr. James Gladstone, an orthopedic surgeon and chief of sports medicine at Mt. Sinai School of Medicine. ?There have been studies out there that suggest if (the ACL) is 50 percent intact, you may be OK. The only way of knowing is you play.?

Even if Rivers does play, the fact his knee is further damaged could affect how long he plays or how much trauma he can handle during the game.

It will also affect how he moves.

The ACL, which along with the PCL forms a cross at the center of the knee, works to stabilize the knee. Its health affects quick starting and stopping and change of direction.

What is not known is the severity of Rivers' tear in either his MCL or ACL. Sprains are classified in three degrees ? as a stretching (first degree), partial tear (second degree) and total tear (third degree).

another reason why i like the under is the weather..which is suppose to be cold & windy....which will cause the ball to be heavier than normal & will limit the deep passing by both teams...

here is one of the weather links that i use....

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/gameforecast/02035?eventid=239439

here are some situations that favor the under....

play under - home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (new england) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 pya) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 pya) after 8+ games, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.....

ats record is 28-7 since 1983...80%...

the average total posted in these games was: 45.6
the average score in these games was: team 23, opponent 17.3 (total points scored = 40.2)

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...7-2 ats....

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...18-5 ats.....


play under - any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (new england) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog....

ats record is 27-7 since 1983....79.4%....

the average total posted in these games was: 45.6
the average score in these games was: team 19.9, opponent 19 (total points scored = 39)

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...2-0 ats...

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...4-0 ats....

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...9-2 ats.....

if i get a chance i will post more info on this play....


good luck..

 

[Kramer]

I hope I don't jinx you AL, I've already played this
and I don't play much NFL. It makes me feel that
much better knowing you are on it. Thanks for the
info. Hope you jump back in next season :toast:

 

[THE KOD]

My only concern would be with Volek.

I remember when watching him in a game he played for Tenn and I remember saying to myself that I wish the Falcons could get him.

If Volek gets in a rythm he can really pass accurately. I doubt he is up to the pressure of playing vs New England in sub freezing weather, with the Super Bowl on the line though.

just sayin

 

[THE KOD]

Passing
Year Team G GS Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate

2004 Tennessee Titans 10 8 357 218 61.1 2486 6.96 48 18 10 30/216 34 5 87.1

...........................................................

This was the year I watched him alot in 2004.

He had 18 touchdowns.

Not saying this will affect the total , but it may help the guys that will take SD and the +13.5

Volek may be able to keep it close, especially if LD plays well.

 

[AR182]

scott...

i know volek is a verteran qb but he hasn't played much this year...which imo makes him rusty. i also think if he does play sd will go to a conservative game plan...

but we will see..

 

[Cie]

Congrats on a nice win by the G men last
week:toast:

Nice grab at 49 on this total. I wish I'd jumped on this one earlier when I managed to get on GB un42.


GL:weed:

 

[AR182]

thanks kramer & cie....appreciate it...

cie...i would be shocked if the giants beat gb...but you never know...if they do i may have to try & get tickets to the superbowl..whcih will be played about 1/2 hour from my house...

 

[Kramer]

My breakdown of this game is simple. Key players
on offense for SD are questionable at best. They
played their superbowl last week, they will come
out flat this week on the offensive side of the ball.
On the defensive side of the ball they can hang
with NE. That's why I refuse to take a side in this
game vs the spread. I am totally convinced this
game will be hard fought defensive struggle in the
cold and wind. Of course I could be wrong. :toast:

 

[AR182]

My breakdown of this game is simple. Key players
on offense for SD are questionable at best. They
played their superbowl last week, they will come
out flat this week on the offensive side of the ball.
On the defensive side of the ball they can hang
with NE. That's why I refuse to take a side in this
game vs the spread. I am totally convinced this
game will be hard fought defensive struggle in the
cold and wind. Of course I could be wrong. :toast:

simple but to the point....:142smilie..hope we're right...

 

[ThrowinPicks]

GL on the bet AR

 

[MrChristo]

Hey ar...

...good to see you around. :clap:

Very happy to see us on the same side...and 100% echo Kramer's thoughts of hopefully seeing you back "full time" again next season. :toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks tp & mr.c.....appreciate it...& hope i can join in the fun also next year mr.c...

 

[escarzamd]

GL..........I have some skin on SD b/c of a pre-season calcutta. I'm just stayin' away from this game b/c after last week, I already turned my profit ......talk about finding money!:mj07:

I remember Volek in 2004........ran pretty hot and took the FFL championship right outta my hands.

The feeling I can't shake (mostly b/c I want NE to lose of course) is the Todd Collins show this year. No film on the guy. What is he he capable of:shrug: ? Can he get it downfield to Chambers/Jackson? We know the SD O-line is a capable bunch..........can Norv stay hot w/the play-calling? Exploiting the LBs lack of real speed seems to be the way to go........LT, Turner, Sproles, and even a hobbled Gates should be able to damage these guys, no matter how smart they are. Win these match-ups, stay on the field on 3rd down, eat the clock like Skittles, get lucky with 2 turnovers (max expectation w/Brady), and then its 2 possesions per team, where anything can happen.

Again.......like yoiur bet, because its the only way SD can win. Likely? Of course not........but one can only hope:0corn GL.....doc

 

[AR182]

thanks doc...

i think if sd was healthy & was playing either at home or at a neutral field they have the capability of beating the pats, but don't see it happening tomorrow....

good luck also...

here is an interesting article that i got from another site...


LAS VEGAS -- Oddsmaker Ken White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, predicts Super Bowl XLII will be a rerun of the NFL's 1997 Green Bay-New England mid-winter extravaganza, while Sin City bookmakers report the bulk of early wagering for this weekend's conference championships is split between a favorite and a dog.

Green Bay, a 60/1 long shot to win the Super Bowl when the 2007 regular season kicked off, is a touchdown pick over the surging wild card New York Giants in the NFC title game. The Giants, winners of nine straight on the road, stunned Dallas 21-17 in one divisional matchup last weekend, while the Packers rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to crush Seattle 42-20 at snowy Lambeau Field in the other.

Unbeaten New England (17-0), a two touchdown pick, hosts San Diego in an affair between what White calls the two hottest teams in pro football in the AFC Championship. The Pats ousted Jacksonville from the postseason 31-20 and the Chargers stunned 2007 Super Bowl champion Indianapolis 28-24.

Conference championships will be played in Green Bay and Foxboro on Sunday.

"We've already received a ton of money on the Packers," Hilton SuperBook supervisor Jeff Sherman said. "The money's all been on the dog in the other game. We opened at 15 and we're now at 14."

Wynn and Harrah's both had the number at 14 1/2Tuesday morning; Wynn also had Green Bay laying 7 1/2.

The Patriots are a huge 1/3 Hilton choice to win the Feb. 3 Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. The Packers are a 4/1 second pick, with the Chargers 10/1 and the Giants assuming the long shot's mantle at 12/1.

"Straight up I think the two favorites will win," White said, cautioning, however, that "anything's possible" in light of Sunday's upsets of the Cowboys and Colts."

The oddsmaker says New York's best chance is "just to keep doing what the Giants have been doing."

"They're playing well, playing good D, showing depth and winning on the road," White declared. "They totally outplayed Dallas Sunday. They made adjustments and the Cowboys didn't."
White pronounced Eli Manning "a big-time quarterback" and says the fact Peyton's little brother has the Giants in the conference championship speaks for itself."He had a good, not great, year," White said. "He's playing with confidence. He completed 56 percent of his passes playing in a home stadium where it's difficult to complete passes if it's windy. Eli has what it takes. It's generally thought that it takes four years for a player to develop into a solid NFL quarterback and he's there. It's going to be a tough game, but I'd lean to the Giants with the points."Straight up is another matter, especially with well-seasoned veteran Brett Favre calling the shots for Green Bay."The Packers are home and they've got Favre," White said. "Last weekend we saw (Ryan) Grant has also given them a running game."He expects weather could be a factor in Green Bay."It's going to be extremely cold, something like 10 degrees, which will be tough on both teams," White said. "I think 7 may be a little high."LVSC sent the total out at 44 and it continues to drop. Stores on Tuesday morning had the over/under at between 41 1/2 and 42 1/2"If it's not windy I think the total is going the wrong way," said White, who correctly took the OVER in Green Bay's victory over Seattle.

A straight up Chargers triumph over the Brady Bunch isn't out of the question either, White believes, despite the double-digit pointspread. The Pats have struggled at times lately while failing to cover, including against the Jaguars last weekend."The Pats need to step it up a notch this weekend," he said.White notes the pressure is on New England, which is seeking to go 18-0 en route to a Super Bowl title and unblemished 19-0 slate."This is going to be a pressure-packed game," he observed. "The longer the Pats go without losing, the more the pressure builds. I think San Diego will keep it close."If they are to beat New England, the oddsmaker points to several things the Chargers must do.

"First they need to run the football," he said. "They need to control the line of scrimmage and they need to convert on third down."
White expects to see both running back LaDanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers on the field Sunday, though both left the game versus Indy with injuries."They're listed as probable and I expect them to be fine," he said."I think (Coach) Norv Turner made the right decision in taking them both out last weekend rather than risk further injury. I can't imagine either player not being ready to play in this one."

New England nipped San Diego last season for the right to face Indianapolis in the AFC Championship.
The Pats-Chargers total was shipped at 50, but also steadily was dropping. Books had it between 47 1/2 and 48 1/2 on Tuesday."The pros say go UNDER," White said.

White doesn't expect weather to be as much of a factor in Foxboro as in Green Bay.
"The storms are due Friday and Saturday," he said. "It should be fine by Sunday. It'll be cold, in the 20s. but I don't think it will affect the scoring."

 

[Franky Wright]

GL with this play AL, love it!


Franky

 

[AR182]

thanks franky....

here is a writeup of this game that i thought some might find interesting....

Playbook: Chargers at Patriots
BY HANK GOLA
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Sunday, January 20th 2008, 4:00 AM

THE LINE: Patriots by 14 (47)

FORECAST: It will be 25 degrees at kickoff, with a wind chill of 14. The Chargers, haven't played a game below 34 degrees this season.

INJURY IMPACT

QB Philip Rivers (sprained knee) and TE Antonio Gates (dislocated toe) are listed as doubtful, but they likely will play. Career backup Billy Volek is waiting in the wings for Rivers. Gates probably will be used mostly as a decoy, as he was last week in Indianapolis, but he's still capable of splitting a seam on an intermediate throw. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (hyperextended knee) was removed from the injury report, but you have to wonder if the residual effects of last week's injury will hamper his ability to cut.

FEATURE MATCHUPS

Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. the Chargers' secondary: CB Antonio Cromartie could be the best athlete on the field, and there's some talk that he could be used in single coverage against Moss. That would be playing with fire. Chances are, the Chargers will double Moss with CB Quentin Jammer and a safety, leaving Cromartie singled up against Donte Stallworth or Wes Welker. The Patriots will make a concerted effort to get Moss involved early in the game. They want to make sure his head is into it after a week of off-the-field trouble.

Patriots LT Matt Light vs. Chargers OLB Shawne Merriman: Light, who owned Merriman in last season's divisional playoffs, has to be at the top of his game. If he can't handle Merriman alone, it's going to throw a wrench into the Patriots' game plan. They probably will try to spread the field with receivers, attacking with a short-passing game - a tactic that was enormously successful when they beat the Chargers in Week 2, 38-14. If Light struggles, they'll have to use a back or tight end to help out on Merriman. The Patriots can be deadly with screen passes, another way of slowing down Merriman and OLB Shaun Phillips.

SCOUT SAYS

"The Chargers have to be more aggressive than the Jaguars were last week. The Jaguars rushed four and dropped seven, and (Tom) Brady had all day to throw. (Chargers defensive coordinator) Ted Cottrell likes to use five-man rushes, so Brady can expect to see a lot of zone dogs. The whole key is how well the Chargers adjust. No matter what they do, the Patriots are going to figure it out pretty quickly."

INTANGIBLES

The pressure is squarely on the Patriots, but they always seem to thrive in these situations. Athletically, there isn't much difference between the teams, but the Patriots are more mature than the Chargers and less likely to crumble in crunch time. The only way the Patriots can lose is if Brady gets careless with the ball and starts turning it over.

PREDICTION

Patriots, 31-10. It's simple: The Patriots have Tom Brady, and the Chargers have too many injuries. It'll be 18 in a row, and counting.

 

[escarzamd]

Lot of $$$ pushing my total up to 47.5........which traditionally means the under is looking good:mj07:

not alot of science AR.........but I love fading these boys.......its been good to me. GL today!

 

[escarzamd]

Good job! Congrats on the Jints as well........comin' home for you!

 

[AR182]

Good job! Congrats on the Jints as well........comin' home for you!

thanks doc...good job also...

 

[Senor Capper]

with all that money you won from Vegas ya gotta return & give some back SOON