I believe the numbers could move on this game, so I'm putting out an early report. The total on this game particularly looks to move down at least a half point -- so it's important to make a move now to capture the 37.5 This week's plays will be posted in Friday's report:
1H: SEATTLE +1 vs. DALLAS (BEST BET)
Let me get this straight??.the dreadful Cowboys were essentially shut out by Carolina at home two weeks ago (before a fluke play let them back in the game for the win), then were shut down again by one of the NFL's worst defense last week -- and now they LAY POINTS this week? Add the fact that rookie QB starts for Dallas this week. What's he going to do, solve all the Cowboys offensive problems in one half of football? I'm tempted to play the Seachicks plus the points on the game, but the much stronger play appears to be taking Seattle plus the full point in the first half. Let me make this as clear as possible: DALLAS HAS NOT HAD A HALFTIME LEAD IN ANY GAME THIS SEASON. In fact, Dallas has not scored a point in the first-half in its last two games (they managed 10 points in the 1H against the mediocre Giants three weeks ago). This is an indication that the team is ill-prepared offensively EVERY WEEK. Add the fact that a significant part of Dallas' game plan will be to give the ball to RB Smith so he can get his rushing record -- and that plays into Dallas being more conservative in the first-half of its games. Last thing Cowboys want to do is put all the pressure on the rookie QB, so that makes things even tougher for Dallas to cover as a first-half play. Dallas offensive line remains ridiculously over-rated. This is one of the worst units in the league -- and now has to protect a rookie QB who hasn't thrown a pass in a real game in over three years. Seattle's suspect defense will key on stopping Smith and blitzing the rookie, and should have enough firepower to play at least to a tie in the 1H. Seachicks were actually leading in St. Louis last week at the half. Everything here points to a first-half wager on Seattle GETTING A FULL POINT (we even get this at EVEN -- no juice). BEST BET material for all the reasons listed. If anyone can make case for playing the Cowboys in the first-half, please send me an e-mail. I could use a good laugh.
SEATTLE / DALLAS UNDER 37.5
This wager ties into the previous bet on taking Seattle in the IH. Dallas is likely to come out conservative on offense. RB Emmit Smith needs just 93 yards to break the NFL rushing mark, and with Cowboys on the road next two games, they are determined to get Smith his record at home. You can be certain that meddling Jerry Jones is one the phone this week making DAMN SURE Smith will get enough carries to break the record in front of the home fans. Tick, tick, tick. Add the rookie QB playing (less passing, more running) and this only adds to the strength of the UNDER. Dallas defense has played very well, and Cowboys have gone OVER in only one game this season -- on the road at Philadelphia the week after the Eagles took a loss. Seachicks are averaging just 14 PPG on the road and Dallas is scoring just 17 PPG at home. These are both terrible third-down teams (Seattle is 26th and Dallas is 30th). Seattle has been vulnerable on defense -- but they have faced some very tough opposition, including the Rams, Raiders, and 49ers. They get a much softer spot here. As a nice bonus, we get the hook on the 37, which really makes me like this play. This looks to be a 20-17 type of game -- at most.
NOTE: If anyone in the Dallas organization had an ounce of brain matter, the Cowboys would use this "Smith pursues rushing record" disinformation to their advantage and have the rookie QB come out THROWING ON JUST ABOUT EVERY DOWN. This would be the best game plan the Cowboys could possibly devise. But it won't happen. These incompetent morons in Dallas -- from owner Jones to offensive coordinator Coslett are incapable of intelligent thought or originality.
-- Nolan Dalla
1H: SEATTLE +1 vs. DALLAS (BEST BET)
Let me get this straight??.the dreadful Cowboys were essentially shut out by Carolina at home two weeks ago (before a fluke play let them back in the game for the win), then were shut down again by one of the NFL's worst defense last week -- and now they LAY POINTS this week? Add the fact that rookie QB starts for Dallas this week. What's he going to do, solve all the Cowboys offensive problems in one half of football? I'm tempted to play the Seachicks plus the points on the game, but the much stronger play appears to be taking Seattle plus the full point in the first half. Let me make this as clear as possible: DALLAS HAS NOT HAD A HALFTIME LEAD IN ANY GAME THIS SEASON. In fact, Dallas has not scored a point in the first-half in its last two games (they managed 10 points in the 1H against the mediocre Giants three weeks ago). This is an indication that the team is ill-prepared offensively EVERY WEEK. Add the fact that a significant part of Dallas' game plan will be to give the ball to RB Smith so he can get his rushing record -- and that plays into Dallas being more conservative in the first-half of its games. Last thing Cowboys want to do is put all the pressure on the rookie QB, so that makes things even tougher for Dallas to cover as a first-half play. Dallas offensive line remains ridiculously over-rated. This is one of the worst units in the league -- and now has to protect a rookie QB who hasn't thrown a pass in a real game in over three years. Seattle's suspect defense will key on stopping Smith and blitzing the rookie, and should have enough firepower to play at least to a tie in the 1H. Seachicks were actually leading in St. Louis last week at the half. Everything here points to a first-half wager on Seattle GETTING A FULL POINT (we even get this at EVEN -- no juice). BEST BET material for all the reasons listed. If anyone can make case for playing the Cowboys in the first-half, please send me an e-mail. I could use a good laugh.
SEATTLE / DALLAS UNDER 37.5
This wager ties into the previous bet on taking Seattle in the IH. Dallas is likely to come out conservative on offense. RB Emmit Smith needs just 93 yards to break the NFL rushing mark, and with Cowboys on the road next two games, they are determined to get Smith his record at home. You can be certain that meddling Jerry Jones is one the phone this week making DAMN SURE Smith will get enough carries to break the record in front of the home fans. Tick, tick, tick. Add the rookie QB playing (less passing, more running) and this only adds to the strength of the UNDER. Dallas defense has played very well, and Cowboys have gone OVER in only one game this season -- on the road at Philadelphia the week after the Eagles took a loss. Seachicks are averaging just 14 PPG on the road and Dallas is scoring just 17 PPG at home. These are both terrible third-down teams (Seattle is 26th and Dallas is 30th). Seattle has been vulnerable on defense -- but they have faced some very tough opposition, including the Rams, Raiders, and 49ers. They get a much softer spot here. As a nice bonus, we get the hook on the 37, which really makes me like this play. This looks to be a 20-17 type of game -- at most.
NOTE: If anyone in the Dallas organization had an ounce of brain matter, the Cowboys would use this "Smith pursues rushing record" disinformation to their advantage and have the rookie QB come out THROWING ON JUST ABOUT EVERY DOWN. This would be the best game plan the Cowboys could possibly devise. But it won't happen. These incompetent morons in Dallas -- from owner Jones to offensive coordinator Coslett are incapable of intelligent thought or originality.
-- Nolan Dalla
