Season Long Thread

[TLankford]

1-1-1 this week
13-11-1 on the year

Obviously went heavy on Auburn once I got drunk enough to pull the trigger and that was lovely.
Our team looks damn good and I honestly think Mississippi State may be the toughest matchup, on paper, left for AU this year. We have a damn good run defense to handle the Bama, UGA types.

Got a couple early ones this week:

Auburn -145 over MSU

Think this opening line said all that needs to be said about this game. And Mullen hasn't proven that he can get up this team for multiple big games in a row. We'll see how that works for him this week. I think the matchups will be in the trenches and also Marshall vs. MSU Secondary, which hasn't looked great. MSU kept Kenny Football in check because they were dropping 7 and playing video game football like A&M tries to make everyone play. If someone doesn't stack 8 in the box against Auburn we'll run for 300. I think we just outscore MSU in a semi shootout in the 34-24 range.

Arkansas +9.5 over Bama

Weeeeeelp. Bama's first real football game against a good team and they had all kinds of holes exposed. QB is not where it is. Losing Drake to that :scared was pretty brutal and hurts them. Defense is full of holes in the secondary and I think Arkansas will be able to open up a few PA passes that get them big gains to keep them within double-digits. They probably won't win though just keep it close

LSU -2 over Florida

Also think this line tells the story of the game here. Not sure who thinks it's a good idea to have LSU favored over anyone at this point, but someone in Vegas does... so I'm taking their word for it. Lot of people will jump on UF being at home catching points vs someone that the whole country just saw get beat 41-7. I think LSU will still have a little fight in them. And the team is still very talented just young and sloppy

haven't made up my mind yet about the UGA-Mizz or OM-ATM games

 

[capping-guru]

Love Arky! GL

 

[TLankford]

Bama is "built" to stop Arkansas's style of offense, I think between losing their best RB and C, let's be honest that C-RG combo was not good at all to begin with and now they're on the backup C... Bama's Offense is gonna have a time against Arkansas. I think this one will be more low scoring than most games on the board.

Added:

Texas A&M -175 over OMiss

Juice is kinda steep on this one, but there's nothing that makes me more angry than taking a -3 and the team winning the game by 1 or something.

Have a pretty good read on A&M this year. 3-1 betting their games with the only loss being on SCar who nobody knew would be this terrible. I think A&M bounces back this week. Also the mentality from everyone I've talked to and everything I've read shows 2 completely different mentalities in the Mississippi schools:

Miss State is all, OK we had a big win and now it's on to the next game lets get ready for Auburn

While OMiss has been, from everything I have seen, beating their chest over the biggest win in the school's history, Freeze finally made his marquee win, etc etc. It's the SECWest and that mentality doesn't cut it. I see it being a let down game against a team with a much more potent offense that can do damage to OMiss's "good" defense. We'll see

 

[TLankford]

Heard the line for UGA/Mizzou re-opened at Mizzou -1. Not up on 5D yet but if that's what it opens back up there at I'm taking it. Mason is bad.

 

[TLankford]

And since that kind hearted soul forgave Treon Harris for raping her, I'm gonna buy back the LSU game if Treon ends up starting. Gonna be a gameday decision there I think

 

[TLankford]

15-13-1 on the year for posted plays
Took a week off because last week's games were pretty hard to get a read on now that we're getting into the meat of conference play. Watched all my SECs on saturday. Pretty sure I have a good handle on how the rest of the season plays out for most of these teams.

LSU +4 over OMiss

This is the fishiest line of the year so far. No reason LSU shouldn't be at least a 10-pt dog the way they have been playing. And I don't think the line is reflecting anything related to the UK game because that's Kentucky. Filing this one in the category of "Vegas knows something I don't" so I'm biting on the short line.

Bama -17 over Tennessee

Don't think Tennessee has anything on their defensive side of the ball that is gonna slow down Bama's above-average offense. Bama's front 7 will make UT pass to win and they just can't do it.

Auburn -17 over USC

Bye week to get AU back on track. Sounded like we're gonna get Roc Thomas more touches, and he looked 100X better than Payne against MSU. Kid is gonna be special but we have to get the seniority shit out of here and actually play him. USC's D is pretty pitiful and I don't see them stopping AU in the redzone like MSU was able to

 

[TLankford]

16-15-1 on the year
1-2 last week

Tough picking games this week. People playing so much different week to week. Also wasn't expecting Spurrier to call a game like he was playing video games online. Normally when you stop a team 3 times you get the ball back. Spurrier picked apart his former DC.

Auburn +1.5 over OMiss

I think the rebels are overrated, plain and simple. Their only decent win this year is against Bama, who I also think is pretty overrated. If Tunsil is out for OMiss this game won't be close. he's a huge part of that OL and from what I've seen today he's doubtful to play. OMiss's strength on D is the secondary and AU doesn't throw very much. It's gonna come down to OMiss Offense vs. AU Defense.

 

[TLankford]

Also leaning towards: Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas

 

[TLankford]

Put in 3 more for now:

Arkansas +10.5 over MSU

I think arkansas has the hogs to play with MSU in the trenches. And they seem to be steadily improving every week this year. Dax has kinda stalled out. He's definitely not looking as Heisman-esque as ESPN was wanting him to against Auburn or Kentucky.

Oregon -7 over Stanford

Shaw is horrible. Harbaugh's players are gone and that program is on a really fast decline. Oregon is seemingly healthy again and they are a very good football team when this is the case.

Louisville +3.5 over FSU

Combination of FSU's defense being very suspect this year, Petrino having a long time to prepare for said defense, Mike Dyer being healthy, and the whole home dog on Thursday aspect. Throw into the mix this whole Karlos Williams domestic violence problem.... you got a stew goin.

 

[TLankford]

finally had a good week. hate what happened to treadwell but glad we got the W. real big win to stay in the hunt.

3-1 on the week
19-6-1 ytd

will be interesting to see where these two lines come out

AU-A&M
Bama-LSU

AU I'd probably put around 24
Bama around 10

 

[TLankford]

Put in a few for this weekend. Still waiting on a couple

Auburn -21 over T A&M

Not surprising. Most people I know LOVE Auburn in this game. While I don't think anyone should be betting the house on this one, I do think it is gonna be another ugly game for a freshman QB starting in JHS at night. We're not gonna have a bit of trouble scoring on that defense with the 1st or 2nd team in there. I actually think the second team with Johnson at QB and Roc Thomas at RB is gonna be more fun to watch than the 1st team. Marshall, Duke, CAP, and Coates are all in top form though so they should get us out to a big lead by halftime.

Will probably look at AU Team Total or AU 1st Half for this one as well.

Louisville -3 over BC BOUGHT BACK

I know BC hasn't been a doormat this year but I still think they are outclassed in this one. Blah blah hangover from losing a huge game. I don't think Petrino lets them just drop this one because of a pity party. They still have a damn good defense and solid weapons on Offense.

Kansas State +195 over TCU

I like Snyder to scheme his way to a win here. TCU coming off a big come back win and having to play their toughest game of the year. KState hasn't had a real game since the OU game like 4 weeks ago.

Still looking at Bama and probably Oregon

 

[TLankford]

Bought back the Louisville bet. Just didn't like it after thinking about it for a while.

put in a few more:

Texas +120 over WV

Some rational UT alum here in austin are very confident they win this one. They've made honest predictions about the horns games so far that were pretty accurate.

1H ASU -1.5 over ND

Like the home team to come out swinging. Not a believer in ND just because they played a so-so FSU team down to the wire.

LSU +7 (b .5) over Bama

I like the matchup of Chavis vs. Kiffin. I think LSU has the players to keep the run game in check and take away a lot of the dink and dunk crap that Lane does. Couple that with the fact that winning on the road in the SECW this year has proven to be incredibly difficult. LSU has the chance for the straight up win but I'll take the TD as insurance

 

[TLankford]

2-2-1 weekend
21-18-2 on the year

Very disappointing collapse at the end of the a&m game. Now rooting for complete chaos in the SECW and top 10 in general so Auburn can backdoor into the SECCG and Playoffs. First up: Georgia

Haven't played any because I'm gonna wait to see how a few lines move before Thursday.

Leans:

AU-UGA OVER. I'll take anything under 70 for a really big bet. I think both teams reach 40 fairly easily. Both teams are gonna be able to run the ball pretty much at will - especially if Gurley is back. Auburn should get 300 on the ground without breaking a sweat. Tough to stop people in the RZ when they can run the ball.

MSU over Bama. I think the game comes down to a TD or less. Will take the better team getting a TD vs. Bama, who mostly gets lines that look like this because of their name and national perception. They have been one of the least impressive teams in the SEC, but still keep winning games.

Texas over OSU. Texas finally looks like a decent Longhorn squad. OSU is just not very good and probably won't be able to keep this one close.

Arkansas over LSU. Line tells me everything I need to know here. Arkyslaw has been close to a lot of Ws this year. I just don't see them going winless in the SEC again because they're not as bad as their record indicates.