Season Wins

[BASON]

I am not much of a futures player as I usually do not like tying up any amount of money for the whole season, but there is no way I can not make this bet:

Orioles Un 59.5

Seriously, they won 47 games last year and will go into the season with a significantly worse team than last year. How in the hell are they going to win 60 games with this roster when they have to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays 57 times. They also have Nats, Dodgers, Colorado, SF and AZ in inter league play. They got rid of their two best hitters (Machado and Jones), Schoop, their three top starters all lost at least 15 games LY and won a total of 17 games combined, they sold off almost their entire bullpen and have one of the worst hitting 1B in baseball (Davis, also one of the worst contracts ever). I really see no way in hell they win 50 games this year. I have been an Oriole fan my whole life so please try and convince me otherwise, but they are going to be one really, really bad baseball team this year.

I will post a few more after watching to see where remaining free agents land (the Orioles will not do anything of significance). Waiting for the Phillies to get over inflated so I can go under there also as Harper is not going to make them 10 games better than last year (yes, he will improve their offense but he was the second worst defensive right fielder in baseball LY) . Not sure anyone in that division will win 90 as it has become very competitive.

 

[BASON]

Phillies Un 89.5 -115

Not waiting anymore on this one. It is possible it goes to 90 if they sign a pitcher, but I prefer this line. The hype with Harper has gotten out of control. Is he worth 10 wins? Not a chance based on his play the last two years. The Phillies will have a strong offense, but on paper, they are a very poor defensive team. They need another starting pitcher and have an unproven bullpen. They have the potential to win 90, but everything has to fall perfectly in place. In addition, and very importantly, their division is very strong this year. The Nats, Braves and Mets all have very competitive teams, which means they will all beat each other making it difficult for any of them to get over 90 wins. I am sure one team emerges, but I do not think anyone can tell you which one right now, but I think there are better arguments for the Nats or Braves over the Phillies.

By this same reasoning I am still looking at the Nats Un 89, but I want to see if they happen to sign Kimbrel, which will make their bullpen very strong.

 

[BASON]

Nats Un 89 -130

Similar philosophy here with the Nats as with Philly. This division should beat up on themselves and I do not think anyone will run away with it, so going to be tough to win 90 games. The Nats have the potential to have one of the top staffs in all of baseball as well as a strong back end of the bullpen. The issue I have with them is their ability to score runs on a consistent basis. They do not have a lot of pop in the lineup but have a lot of speed. They are very dependent on Soto improving and Zimmerman being able to produce which is a big question mark. They certainly have tons of speed and could look like a "old school" national league team. They are also a very good defensive team, especially with the loss of Harper, so they should see a lot of low scoring tight games, so their ability to win one run games should be key . This kicker for me is that I still have serious concerns about Martinez as a manager. I think he was a unmitigated disaster last year no matter what Rizzo has to say. He constantly tinkered with the lineup, made poor pitching change decisions, has no idea what a bunt is and just made a lot of bad decisions all year long. Hopefully, he improves, but I am not willing to bet on it as he looked like a terrible hire last season. Given this teams need to produce runs, I think that managing this team will be a challenge.