Well I'm a glutton for punishment. After a month of watching college football I'm ready to dip my toe in the water once again and see what I can do.
Last year I was 49-37-3 on all of my plays. Hope that I can improve on that just a bit.
Alabama at Kentucky
Might as well start off with my favorite team, the Crimson Tide of Alabama. I've been very impressed with their play so far this season. Two big questions for the Tide coming into 2009 was how was QB Greg McElroy going to look and how strong was the O-Line going to be after losing Andre Smith to the NFL. I think it's safe to say that both questions have been answered with a resounding NO PROBLEM. McElroy has been scary good through the first four weeks of the season and has not thrown an interception in 81 straight pass attempts, dating back to second quarter against Virginia Tech (his only INT this season). He completed 10 straight passes against Arkansas and 14 straight against Florida International and has 7 TD passes on the season.
Think that if you stop McElroy you stop Alabama? Not so fast my friend! The Tide running game is steamrolling every team in it's way right now. Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are a two headed monster in the 'Bama backfield and UK gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida just last week. So pick your poison... because 'Bama will not beat themselves.
Defensively Alabama has given up 28 points in the past three games and 7 of those were to an Arkansas team that scored 42 points the previous week at home against Georgia. Defensive end Marcell Dareus has led the way for the Tide with 3.5 sacks (-25) to rank tied for 23rd in the NCAA and fourth in the SEC. Dareus also has nine tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three quarterback hurries. Cornerback Javier Arenas is second on the team with 3.0 sacks for a loss of 31 yards to rank tied for fifth in the SEC. Middle linebacker Rolando McClain is next with two sacks for a loss of 19 yards. Obviously the loss of Dont'a Hightower is a blow to defense of the Tide, but Coach Nick Saban has a stockpile of studs to pick from and a steady rotation of backups should be able to pick up the slack as they did for the final 3 quarters of last week's Arkansas game.
Special Teams is where 'Bama can also hurt you when all stud return man Javier Arenas is back deep to return punts or kickoffs. Arenas is quickly sneaking up on the all-time great punt returners in college football history. He is the NCAA active leader in career punt returns, yards, touchdowns, returns per game and yards per game. After returning four punts for 59 yards last week against Arkansas, Arenas is just 165 punt return yards away from breaking Lee Nalley's long-standing SEC record of 1,472 (102 returns for a 14.4 ypr average). Now if 'Bama can just stop committing silly penalties on Arenas' returns they can truly enjoy the game changing field position he provides. Twice last week against Arkansas, Arenas had long punt returns called back due to block in the back penalties. I'm sure that Coach Saban worked on that quite a bit this week in practice.
Talk about a killer schedule! UK gets to watch the #1 ranked Florida Gators run roughshod all over Commonwealth Stadium only to see the #3 ranked Crimson Tide come calling. Kentucky has a 8-4 (.667) record with junior Mike Hartline as the starting quarterback. Hartline has completed 62.2 percent of his passes for 485 yards and four touchdowns. After gaining 36 yards against Florida, Derrick Locke has 993 career rushing yards and needs just seven more yards for 1,000. Randall Cobb has scored at least one touchdown in six of 14 career games, including five of the last seven. He leads UK and ranks second in the SEC in receptions per game (6.0).
Trevard Lindley has made several game-changing plays while at Kentucky. He currently has 10 interceptions and 38 pass breakups during his Wildcat career. Seven of his 10 interceptions have been key plays in Kentucky victories, with the eighth pick helping send a game into overtime. He led the team in breakups each of the last three seasons and now holds UK's career record with 38. He currently leads the SEC in passes defended with 1.7 per game. Corey Peters has 107 tackles in his career, including 17.5 tackles for loss and 8.0 quarterback sacks. The Wildcats linebackers are paced by senior Micah Johnson, who leads the team in tackles with 25 stops. He ranks fifth in the SEC in tackles per game.
Will 'Bama be caught looking ahead? Is UK really as bad as they looked when trailing 31-0 after the first quarter last week? Can UK field a complete front five. Starting right tackle Justin Jeffries suffered and Achilles tendon injury, while starting left guard Christian Johnson is a likely no-go with a rib problem. The last thing the Wildcat offense needs is to deal with Terrence Cody and the Alabama defensive line with green linemen like sophomore Jake Lanefski on the inside and junior Brad Durham on the out. This is nothing like the studs who faced off against the Tide last year. Myron Power has moved on to the NFL. The best pass rusher for UK, Jermey Jarmon, was ruled ineligible prior to the season starting. This has to be a nightmare for Mildcat DC Steve Brown.
UK is famous for starting slow and having to play catch up. They have been held scoreless in two of three first quarters this season and nine of 16 dating back to last year's season opener. Since last season's opener, opponents are outscoring UK 139-44 in first quarters, but the Cats are outscoring opponents 330-208 in the last three.
The Tide has dominated this series winning 34 times and only losing twice to the Wildcats. The last time was in 1997 (OT 40-34). I was there and they were still linked arm in arm singing "My Old Kentucky Home" half an hour after the final gun. UK can play better than they showed last week but it's not going to matter. Nobody should have to play arguably the two best teams in college football back to back, but that is exactly the task that faces the Mildcats. For the Cats to have a chance they need to keep 'Bama in the low 20s and I don't see that happening with the offensive fire power the Tide brings to the table. With the line dropping almost 2 points, I'm very happy to lay the points and take my Crimson Tide. I will be in Section 114 hopefully singing the Rammer Jammer around 3:30 Saturday afternoon.
Some trends to consider:
Bama is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Bama is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
UK is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
UK is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
My pick is Alabama -15.5
My prediction is Crimson Tide 34-10
Last year I was 49-37-3 on all of my plays. Hope that I can improve on that just a bit.
Alabama at Kentucky
Might as well start off with my favorite team, the Crimson Tide of Alabama. I've been very impressed with their play so far this season. Two big questions for the Tide coming into 2009 was how was QB Greg McElroy going to look and how strong was the O-Line going to be after losing Andre Smith to the NFL. I think it's safe to say that both questions have been answered with a resounding NO PROBLEM. McElroy has been scary good through the first four weeks of the season and has not thrown an interception in 81 straight pass attempts, dating back to second quarter against Virginia Tech (his only INT this season). He completed 10 straight passes against Arkansas and 14 straight against Florida International and has 7 TD passes on the season.
Think that if you stop McElroy you stop Alabama? Not so fast my friend! The Tide running game is steamrolling every team in it's way right now. Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are a two headed monster in the 'Bama backfield and UK gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida just last week. So pick your poison... because 'Bama will not beat themselves.
Defensively Alabama has given up 28 points in the past three games and 7 of those were to an Arkansas team that scored 42 points the previous week at home against Georgia. Defensive end Marcell Dareus has led the way for the Tide with 3.5 sacks (-25) to rank tied for 23rd in the NCAA and fourth in the SEC. Dareus also has nine tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three quarterback hurries. Cornerback Javier Arenas is second on the team with 3.0 sacks for a loss of 31 yards to rank tied for fifth in the SEC. Middle linebacker Rolando McClain is next with two sacks for a loss of 19 yards. Obviously the loss of Dont'a Hightower is a blow to defense of the Tide, but Coach Nick Saban has a stockpile of studs to pick from and a steady rotation of backups should be able to pick up the slack as they did for the final 3 quarters of last week's Arkansas game.
Special Teams is where 'Bama can also hurt you when all stud return man Javier Arenas is back deep to return punts or kickoffs. Arenas is quickly sneaking up on the all-time great punt returners in college football history. He is the NCAA active leader in career punt returns, yards, touchdowns, returns per game and yards per game. After returning four punts for 59 yards last week against Arkansas, Arenas is just 165 punt return yards away from breaking Lee Nalley's long-standing SEC record of 1,472 (102 returns for a 14.4 ypr average). Now if 'Bama can just stop committing silly penalties on Arenas' returns they can truly enjoy the game changing field position he provides. Twice last week against Arkansas, Arenas had long punt returns called back due to block in the back penalties. I'm sure that Coach Saban worked on that quite a bit this week in practice.
Talk about a killer schedule! UK gets to watch the #1 ranked Florida Gators run roughshod all over Commonwealth Stadium only to see the #3 ranked Crimson Tide come calling. Kentucky has a 8-4 (.667) record with junior Mike Hartline as the starting quarterback. Hartline has completed 62.2 percent of his passes for 485 yards and four touchdowns. After gaining 36 yards against Florida, Derrick Locke has 993 career rushing yards and needs just seven more yards for 1,000. Randall Cobb has scored at least one touchdown in six of 14 career games, including five of the last seven. He leads UK and ranks second in the SEC in receptions per game (6.0).
Trevard Lindley has made several game-changing plays while at Kentucky. He currently has 10 interceptions and 38 pass breakups during his Wildcat career. Seven of his 10 interceptions have been key plays in Kentucky victories, with the eighth pick helping send a game into overtime. He led the team in breakups each of the last three seasons and now holds UK's career record with 38. He currently leads the SEC in passes defended with 1.7 per game. Corey Peters has 107 tackles in his career, including 17.5 tackles for loss and 8.0 quarterback sacks. The Wildcats linebackers are paced by senior Micah Johnson, who leads the team in tackles with 25 stops. He ranks fifth in the SEC in tackles per game.
Will 'Bama be caught looking ahead? Is UK really as bad as they looked when trailing 31-0 after the first quarter last week? Can UK field a complete front five. Starting right tackle Justin Jeffries suffered and Achilles tendon injury, while starting left guard Christian Johnson is a likely no-go with a rib problem. The last thing the Wildcat offense needs is to deal with Terrence Cody and the Alabama defensive line with green linemen like sophomore Jake Lanefski on the inside and junior Brad Durham on the out. This is nothing like the studs who faced off against the Tide last year. Myron Power has moved on to the NFL. The best pass rusher for UK, Jermey Jarmon, was ruled ineligible prior to the season starting. This has to be a nightmare for Mildcat DC Steve Brown.
UK is famous for starting slow and having to play catch up. They have been held scoreless in two of three first quarters this season and nine of 16 dating back to last year's season opener. Since last season's opener, opponents are outscoring UK 139-44 in first quarters, but the Cats are outscoring opponents 330-208 in the last three.
The Tide has dominated this series winning 34 times and only losing twice to the Wildcats. The last time was in 1997 (OT 40-34). I was there and they were still linked arm in arm singing "My Old Kentucky Home" half an hour after the final gun. UK can play better than they showed last week but it's not going to matter. Nobody should have to play arguably the two best teams in college football back to back, but that is exactly the task that faces the Mildcats. For the Cats to have a chance they need to keep 'Bama in the low 20s and I don't see that happening with the offensive fire power the Tide brings to the table. With the line dropping almost 2 points, I'm very happy to lay the points and take my Crimson Tide. I will be in Section 114 hopefully singing the Rammer Jammer around 3:30 Saturday afternoon.
Some trends to consider:
Bama is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Bama is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
UK is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
UK is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
My pick is Alabama -15.5
My prediction is Crimson Tide 34-10
