SEC Plays 11/8

[RollTide72]

Greetings from SEC Country. I'm in South Carolina this week on a golf trip, so my writeups will be a bit brief this week. 40-28-3 overall this year.

The big matchup this week is on the Bayou as Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide return to Baton Rouge and face his former team, the LSwho Tigers. Emotions will be running extremely high in this game.

Jawga travels to the Bluegrass State to take on the Kentucky Mildcats. The only importance to this game is the winner improves where they will be playing in the post season as both are bowl eligible.

The Hogs and Cocks mix it up in Columbia and it's a must win for Arkansas if they wish to play in a bowl game this season.

It might be the lame duck coaches bowl in ObKnoxville as UcheaT's Phat Phil Fulmer "stepped down" from his post and faces dead man walking Joe Glenn and the Wyoming Cowboys.

Awbarn Coach Tommy Tubberville could be coaching in his final season on the Plains. This is more than likely his last win of the season against a D1-AA opponent in UT-Martin.

The resurgent Reptiles of Florida travel to Music City USA to battle the struggling Commodores of Vanderbilt. A month ago this game looked like it would be for the SEC East title. Vandy as usual has underachieved lately.

Well, onto the action everyone! :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Alabama at LSwho
Both teams have a strong, passionate fan base and the LSwho fans in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon will not be kind to returning Alabama coach Nick Saban. According to CNS it's just another game to him... but he is not one to share his thoughts and emotions with the public. I know he wants to win this game as badly as the Mad Hatter and his LSwho Tigers.

Both teams come off of wins against lesser opponents... Alabama 35-0 over Arky State and LSwho 35-10 against Tulane. Neither team really broke a sweat and were able to turn their attentions towards this matchup around halftime.

Where has the LSwho defense gone? 51 given up against the Reptiles and 52 against Jawga has everyone in Baton Rouge scratching their heads. Rahim Alem leads the SEC in both total sacks (6.0) and sacks per game (0.75). In eight games, Alem's six sacks have accounted for 48 yards in losses. He's also added eight tackles for losses, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles, two PBUs and a blocked field goal. Alem's eight tackles for losses tie for the sixth-highest total in the SEC. With a pair of sacks vs. South Carolina, LSwho DE Tyson Jackson ran his career total to 18.5, which ranks eighth in school history. This year, Jackson has 4.5 sacks to his credit to rank fourth in the SEC.

QB John Parker Wilson has been very pedestrian this year in leading the Crimson Tide to a 9-0 record. He has not had to rely on his arm to win this season due to the strength of the Tide's running game. But, when Alabama has has played against ranked opponents JPW has had his best games of the season. Wilson threw for 180 yards and two TDs as the Tide opened the season with a victory against then-No. 9 Clemson in Atlanta and delivered 205 yards and a TD in a 41-30 victory at then-No. 9 Georgia on Sept. 27. Last year against the Bayou Bengals, JPW had 234 yards passing and 3 TDs. Mark Ingram ranks second on the team in rushing and seventh in the SEC with 59.2 yards per game (533 yards on 94 carries) and a team-best eight TDs. Glen Coffee ranks fourth in the SEC and 30th nationally in rushing at 99.33 yards per game and is second among the top 10 SEC rushers at 6.6 yards per carry.

LSwho QB Jarret Lee is going to need a big game if his team is going to pull off the upset. Also, RB Charles Scott must put up some big numbers to keep the Tide Defense honest. He ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns against Jawga, but he was held to 35 yards by Florida and he struggled to get to 61 yards and two touchdowns against South Carolina. Charles Scott has rushed for 100 or more yards six times this year and he ranks second in the league with 111.1 yards per game. LSU QB Jarrett Lee has thrown for 1,427 yards and 12 scores, while WR Brandon LaFell is tops on the team with 39 catches for 572 yards and 6 TDs.

Rashad Johnson made Homecoming 2008 one he will remember forever. He matched his career high with 13 tackles and found the end zone for the first time in his career with a 32-yard interception return. He also registered a career-best 2.5 tackles for loss and broke up his team-high 10th pass of the season. Dont'a Hightower is third on the team in tackles with 42 stops - 19 solo - in nine games (4.4 tackles per game). Hightower has also forced one fumble and recovered two more to rank tied for fifth in the SEC at .22 per game.

The key for Alabama is getting off to a quick start. They have only allowed 6 first quarter points this season and a total of 27 first half points. The average halftime score for the Tide has been 22-3 for the season. The Tide seems to thrive on playing away from home this season. John Parker Wilson has completed 69.0 percent of his passes away from Bryant-Denny Stadium for 647 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Wilson boasts a passing efficiency rating of 149.46 in four games away from home this season. Against a suspect LSwho defense, I don't see this changing. This is not the same Bayou Bengals team from the past few years. An inexperienced QB against a strong defense equals trouble on the Bayou. LSwho gives up 21 points to a horrible Auburn team and allows Mississippi State to come into Death Valley and score 24. Both of those offenses are putrid yet could score on the LSwho defense, not to mention the combined 103 points scored by UGA and Florida. The Tide will roll in Baton Rouge. Remember, I never bet the Tide.

The road team is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

My prediction is Alabama 31-13

My lean is Alabama -3

 

[RollTide72]

Jawga at Kentucky
One thing these teams have in common is that they both had their asses kicked by Florida. Both are also going to bowl games this year and the winner of this game will improve their location. How will the Dawgs bounce back from the Cocktail Party thrashing?

Kentucky's offense is horrible this season. Take away the Norfolk State and Western Kentucky games this season and they have only scored 117 points in 7 games. Both sides of the ball are banged up with numerous injuries and is a shell of it's former self. The Mildcats couldn't beat USC-East at home and needed two late TDs to beat Arkansas as well. Last week they came from behind to beat Mississippi State 14-13. Not looking good for UK.

UGA is still licking it's wounds from the blowout in Jacksonville. Mark Richt had his hands full this week trying to get his Dawg to focus on the rest of the season. UGA has laid an egg in both marquee matchups they have played this season. I don't think they are quite ready for primetime but shouldn't have any trouble against UK.

The last time UGA visited Commonwealth Stadium it left with a loss 24-20. The Dawgs are 10-1 in the last 11 matchups though. UGA's offense is averaging an SEC-leading 427.6 yards thanks to quarterback Matthew Stafford, who paces the conference with 245.7 passing yards per game, and running back Knowshon Moreno, whose 110.0 rushing yards per game rank third in the SEC. Last year Moreno had 124 yards rushing and a TD against the Mildcats.

If UK can win Saturday it will be only the second time this decade they have won consecutive conference games. Gonna have to wait a while I believe. UGA is pissed off and will not be in the mood to mess around on Saturday. Lay the points and HUNKER DOWN YOU HAIRY DAWGS!

My prediction is UGA 28-13

My bet is the Dawgs -11

 

[RollTide72]

Arkansas at USC-East
With two wins in the next three games, the Hogs might just go bowling. I think a win in Columbia is a longshot though. The Head Ball Coach has a very stout defense and the offense is starting to fall into place.

The Hogs have ridden on the back of RB Michael Smith but will face a very tough defense from the Cocks. QB Casey Dick will need to open up the passing game to get the running game going and that's a tough task against USC-East. Dick completed 25-of-38 passes for career-high 385 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the Razorbacks' 30-23 win vs. #18 Tulsa. His passing yardage total was the second highest total in Razorback history and was only two yards shy of school record (387, Clint Stoerner, vs. LSU, 1997). Dick recorded his third 300-yard passing game of the season. Michael Smith leads the SEC and is ninth nationally with 123.4 yards rushing per game.

Defensively for the Cocks Eric Norwood is second on the team with 45 tackles, including a team-high 7.5 TFL's. He also has a team-leading 4.0 sacks and nine quarterback hurries. Emanuel Cook leads the team and is seventh in the SEC in tackles with 72 tackles this season (8.0 per game). Captain Munnerlyn has made 23 starts over the past three seasons, recording five interceptions. He has recorded 28 tackles, has a team-leading five pass break ups, has recovered two fumbles and forced another.

Jerry Franklin had his second fumble recovery of the season on Ramon Broadway's first forced fumble in the second quarter last week. Franklin also intercepted his second pass of the season in the third quarter to halt Tulsa's first drive of the half inside the 10-yard line. Isaac Madison intercepted his first pass of the season and career, returning it 26 yards in the fourth quarter. Franklin leads the team with 65 tackles this season. Malcolm Sheppard leads with nine TFLs, while Adrian Davis has four sacks.

Kenny McKinley ranks first in career receptions (181), second in career receiving yards (2,472) and is fourth in receiving touchdowns (18) in Carolina history. Redshirt freshman quarterback Stephen Garcia has started each of the last two games, getting the starting nod in a loss to LSU and a win over Tennessee. He has completed 46-of-80 passes (57.5 percent) for 654 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Mike Davis has carried 123 times for 435 yards, an average of 3.5 yards per carry.

While the Hogs have definitely been playing better football over the past month, getting a win here is not going to happen. Steve Superior still has an outside shot at the SEC East title and will not let his Cocks lose today. This game will be closer than expected, but it's a pass for me.

My prediction is USC-East 23-14

My lean is Arkansas +11

 

[RollTide72]

Wyoming at UcheaT
I guess the oddmakers don't expect much from Wyoming in this one. UcheaT is a 27 point favorite and the total is at 39. I wonder if Wyoming really is that bad because the Viles shouldn't be laying 27 points to anyone.

Will the Viles win one for the Fatty? They sure didn't step up to the plate when his job was on the line earlier this season and we know what happened earlier this week. I've seen the UcheaT offense in person and it's not very good. If Wyoming can get any points on the board they should be able to cover.

Devin Moore was named MWC Player of the Week on Monday for his performance in a 35-10 Wyoming win over San Diego State. Moore rushed for a career high 234 yards in the 35-10 home victory over the Aztecs. It not only marked Moore's career high for rushing yards, but it was the third best single-game rushing performance in Wyoming history. His 234 rushing yards is a MWC high this season, and is the only 200-yard rushing game by an individual in the conference this season. It also ranks as the eighth best single-game rushing performance among (FBS) teams this season.

Senior DE Robert Ayers has 10 TFLs through nine games after posting 6.5 in the last three games. Ellix Wilson has led the team in tackles in four of his eight games including a career-high 16 at Georgia. He leads the team for the season with 71 stops. Rico McCoy is third on the team with 58 tackles after posting a team-high 13 vs. Alabama and leading the team with nine at South Carolina. Wilson has 4.5 TFLs this season and one sack. Eric Berry has 11 career interceptions (six this season) and is the SEC record holder in career interception return yards with 442.

Chris Prosinski leads a Wyoming defense that ranks No. 39 in the nation, giving up only 332.4 yards per game to opponents. Individually, Prosinski enters this week ranked among MWC leaders in four different categories -- passes defended, solo tackles and tackles -- and ranked nationally in one -- passes defended. John Fletcher recorded 2.0 sacks for a -13 yards against San Diego State to improve his career sack total to 16.0 sacks. Fletcher has 3.5 sacks this season for a -36 yards -- second best for the Cowboys. Mike Juergens leads the team this season with 4.0 sacks.

Nick Stephens will start his sixth career game after winning the job during the week before the Northern Illinois game. He is 60-of-103 for 813 yards and four touchdowns this season. He has thrown one interception in five starts. Arian Foster He is 226 yards from being UT's all-time leading rusher. Gerald Jones has emerged as a go-to receiver this season with three receiving TDs.

Phat Phil was shown the door this week and Joe Glenn more than likely is walking the sidelines in Wyoming for the last time this season. Wyoming will not win this game, but they should be able to cover.

My prediction is UcheaT 27-9

My bet is Wyoming +27

 

[RollTide72]

Florida vs Vanderbilt
A month ago this game had SEC-East championship written all over it. Then Vandy woke up and realized they were Vandy. With losses to Duke, Mississippi State and Georgia, Vandy has returned to their normal status in the SEC has bottom feeders. The Reptiles are gunning for their 18th straight win over the Dores. Florida has averaged 54 points in their last three games against Kentucky, LSwho and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Vandy has scored a total of 49 points in their last 4 games, or the same amount that the Reptiles scored last week against Jawga. Vandy usually plays Florida tough, but with their eyes on the prize this one will be ugly early.

This season, Tim Tebow has rushed for eight touchdowns. The total is equal to or more than 23 Division I-A teams. He is one of six players nationally to have thrown two-or-less interceptions this season (min. 125 att.). Jeff Demps' average of 10.2 yards per carry leads the nation (min. 30 attempts). His average touchdown run this year is 47 yards. Percy Harvin has scored a touchdown in each of the last 10 games he has played in. Over the span, he has scored 16 touchdowns and touched the ball 127 times for 1,419 yards (11.1 yards per touch).

Broderick Stewart leads the team with 4.5 sacks. Chris Marve played one of the finest games of his young Vanderbilt career versus Duke, contributing 16 total tackles, including 10 solo stops. Marve's tackle total is a team high for the Commodores this season. Marve also contributed 2.5 tackles for loss, a 6-yard QB sack and the team's lone forced fumble recovered by Commodore teammates. Reshard Langford and D.J. Moore leads all Commodores with 10 career interceptions each.

Brandon Spikes is fourth in the SEC in tackles per game this year and is 52nd nationally with 8.43. Spikes has led the Gators in tackles in eight of the last 12 games he has played in. Joe Haden (56.0) and Ahmad Black (46.0) rank first and fourth, respectively, in interception return avg. this season among all players nationally. Carlos Dunlap is third in the SEC in sacks per game (.62) and is tied for 48th nationally. His five sacks lead all Gators this season.

Sean Walker produced a career outing against the Blue Devils, catching six passes for 138 yards and one TD. It marked Walker's first career effort of 100+ receiving yards, and the first by a Commodore receiver since Earl Bennett had 100 receiving yards vs. Ole Miss on Sept. 15, 2007. Walker and QB Mackenzi Adams hooked up for a 79-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Moore is the SEC's only athlete this year to see action at five positions (CB, WR, QB, PR and KR) and serve as a four-way contributor (Def./Off./PR/KR).

The Reptiles will blow through the rest of their schedule until they take on the Tide in Atlanta.

My prediction is Florida 49-3

My bet is Reptiles -25

 

[AR182]

brent...

what do you think about the under in the tenn game ?

 

[#cruncher]

Enjoy your write-ups Tide!

 

[Phenom]

If you make it up to the Greenville area let me know, I will meet up with you for some drinks. (Just don't bring up Alabama football, or Auburn football for that matter )

 

[RollTide72]

brent...

what do you think about the under in the tenn game ?

Hey Al, getting ready to post my total plays. Definitely love the under. Obviously they are not expecting Wyoming to score and the Tennessee offense is not very good. I can definitely see a 24-3 or 24-7 type of game.

Don't know the weather yet but do like the under.

Good luck in your plays!

 

[RollTide72]

Enjoy your write-ups Tide!

Thanks cruncher. I appreciate the kind words.

Best of luck this weekend! :toast: :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

If you make it up to the Greenville area let me know, I will meet up with you for some drinks. (Just don't bring up Alabama football, or Auburn football for that matter )

I wish I had time to swing by and have that drink. Hope all is well and best of luck this weekend!

 

[RollTide72]

Totals....

Georgia at Kentucky... 45.5

I think the Dawgs are pissed about last week's asskicking and will have no problem taking it out on an injury riddled Mildcats team. UGA is good for four TDs and UK maybe two.

My bet is UNDER 45.5

Arkansas at South Carolina... 43.5

USC-East's defense is too good to give up very many points to the Hogs and their offense isn't very explosive. Arkansas might have gotten back on track in the last few weeks but I don't see more than 4 TDs scored total.

My bet is UNDER 43.5

Wyoming at Tennessee... 43.5

The Cowboys' offense is horrible and UcheaT's isn't much better. The Viles might come out all fired up to play for Phat Fulmer but I don't see how this total gets anywhere near the over.

My bet is UNDER 43.5

Alabama at LSU... 47

The Tide is leading by an average score of 22-3 at the half and coasting through the 2nd half. I know that LSU has given up lots of points recently but I don't see that changing tomorrow. I'm not betting this one, but I lean to the over.

My lean is OVER 47

Florida at Vanderbilt... 48

Vandy's offense is incredibly ineffective and shouldn't put many points on the board against the Reptiles. Coach Egomaniac will keep his starters in until he has enough style points. I love the over here.

My bet is OVER 48

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

Jawga at Kentucky
One thing these teams have in common is that they both had their asses kicked by Florida. Both are also going to bowl games this year and the winner of this game will improve their location. How will the Dawgs bounce back from the Cocktail Party thrashing?

Kentucky's offense is horrible this season. Take away the Norfolk State and Western Kentucky games this season and they have only scored 117 points in 7 games. Both sides of the ball are banged up with numerous injuries and is a shell of it's former self. The Mildcats couldn't beat USC-East at home and needed two late TDs to beat Arkansas as well. Last week they came from behind to beat Mississippi State 14-13. Not looking good for UK.

UGA is still licking it's wounds from the blowout in Jacksonville. Mark Richt had his hands full this week trying to get his Dawg to focus on the rest of the season. UGA has laid an egg in both marquee matchups they have played this season. I don't think they are quite ready for primetime but shouldn't have any trouble against UK.

The last time UGA visited Commonwealth Stadium it left with a loss 24-20. The Dawgs are 10-1 in the last 11 matchups though. UGA's offense is averaging an SEC-leading 427.6 yards thanks to quarterback Matthew Stafford, who paces the conference with 245.7 passing yards per game, and running back Knowshon Moreno, whose 110.0 rushing yards per game rank third in the SEC. Last year Moreno had 124 yards rushing and a TD against the Mildcats.

If UK can win Saturday it will be only the second time this decade they have won consecutive conference games. Gonna have to wait a while I believe. UGA is pissed off and will not be in the mood to mess around on Saturday. Lay the points and HUNKER DOWN YOU HAIRY DAWGS!

My prediction is UGA 28-13

My bet is the Dawgs -11

:mj06: :mj06: gl on em!

 

[cbrown334]

Totals....

Georgia at Kentucky... 45.5

I think the Dawgs are pissed about last week's asskicking and will have no problem taking it out on an injury riddled Mildcats team. UGA is good for four TDs and UK maybe two.

My bet is UNDER 45.5

Arkansas at South Carolina... 43.5

USC-East's defense is too good to give up very many points to the Hogs and their offense isn't very explosive. Arkansas might have gotten back on track in the last few weeks but I don't see more than 4 TDs scored total.

My bet is UNDER 43.5

Wyoming at Tennessee... 43.5

The Cowboys' offense is horrible and UcheaT's isn't much better. The Viles might come out all fired up to play for Phat Fulmer but I don't see how this total gets anywhere near the over.

My bet is UNDER 43.5

Alabama at LSU... 47

The Tide is leading by an average score of 22-3 at the half and coasting through the 2nd half. I know that LSU has given up lots of points recently but I don't see that changing tomorrow. I'm not betting this one, but I lean to the over.

My lean is OVER 47

Florida at Vanderbilt... 48

Vandy's offense is incredibly ineffective and shouldn't put many points on the board against the Reptiles. Coach Egomaniac will keep his starters in until he has enough style points. I love the over here.

My bet is OVER 48

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND TIDE, I HOPE THE TIDE ROLLS, AND ALSO MY GATORS!! AS FAR AS EGOMANIAC YOU AND I BOTH KNOW THAT STYLE POINTS DO COUNT RIGHT NOW!!

THAT BEING SAID................................
SEE YA IN THE A.T.L.

 

[RollTide72]

LMM and Cbrown, best of luck this weekend in your bets and to the Reptiles. :toast:

Looking forward to mixing it up in the SEC Championship. :00hour

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Looking forward to mixing it up in the SEC Championship. :00hour

Keeps gettin' closer and closer

:toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Hey BBC, hope you are doing well. Continued success in the HK contest. I suck over there! :mj07:

 

[wealthyd]

BEST MONEYLINE I'VE EVER SEEN

BEST MONEYLINE I'VE EVER SEEN

Sorry about this since you're a Bama fan, but LSU beats Bama today in Death Valley.

Everyone thinks LSU is horrible on defense - which they are, but they will match up well in the middle against Coffee and that will force Saban to make Wilson throw the ball downfield.

I predict a few key turnovers and possibly a special teams TD pushing LSU over Bama at home.

Take LSU's moneyline - its one of the best long odds bets I've seen this year.

Good Luck!

 

[cbrown334]

ROLLTIDE 72........

ROLLTIDE 72........

GOOD GAME BROTHER...NICE WIN!!!!!

SEE YA IN THE A.T.L.!:00hour