SEC Plays 9/20

RollTide72

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Had a great start to my SEC season last week with a 7-0-1 record. On the other hand, my leans went 0-4, but that's why they were leans.

The action really starts to heat up now in the nation's best conference for college football. Looks like I've got 6 bets and 6 leans... but if the lines move any that might change.

LSwho at Awbarn

This game could be for the SEC West Championship according to several "experts". I'm not willing to go that far, it is the SEC after all, but the winner definitely will have a leg up on the rest of the division. The road team has not won in this series since 1998. Only 14 points have separated these two teams in the last four meetings with each team winning twice. The Bayou Bengals come into this game having feasted on Appy State and North Texas. Auburn has already popped their conference cherry with a hard fought 3-2 win at Mississippi State last weekend. If you love defense, then tune in to this game because the LSwho "D" is as nasty as ever and War Eagle has a pretty stout one as well. Tony Franklin's offense, on the other hand, hasn't exactly had the scoreboards going on TILT and LSwho is still trying to fill in some gaps in their offense as well. The passing game isn't setting any records at Awbarn so I'm guessing that LSwho won't have to worry about the long ball or a bunch of points. Again, the Bayou Bengals have gotten fat on a couple of cupcakes, so we really don't have an idea what the offense will do against a "D" as good as Awbies. LSwho did lose a big part of their "D" when LB Darry Beckwith sustained a knee injury last weekend. Awbie TB Brad Lester (sprained neck) is still listed as questionable for Saturday's game, although the coaching staff says barring any unforseen setback that he will play. He's the 2nd leading rusher for War Eagle and has started all three games this season. My gut tells me the Tigers win this game :SIB ... seriously though I think the main difference is that LSwho has a better offense and when points will be scarce, that's what I'm looking for. Throw in the fact that Awbarn has had trouble hanging onto the football (6 fumbles and 2 INTs) and that's a recipe for disaster. Field position will definitely be a premium in this defensive match-up. It's hard to pass up Awbie getting points at home, but unless this line moves one way or the other, it's a non-play for me.

My prediction is Bayou Bengals 13-9.

My lean is LSwho -2.5
 
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RollTide72

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Mississippi State at Georgia Tech

This should be another tough as nails defensive battle. The Bulldogs help set the game back 100 years last weekend when they lost 3-2 against Awbarn. The Yella Jackets are licking their wounds having played a great game at Va. Tech but just coming up short 20-17. MSU can't afford to go 1-3 and expect to make a bowl game. Their defense is the real deal though and could give first year Tech coach Paul Johnson fits. They have 17 tackles for loss in the first three games and I don't see any reason for them not to add to that total on Saturday. The defense also has four interceptions, only one less than the team's 2007 total, and it is tied for first in the ACC with 2.67 sacks per game. What worries Bulldog fans is the lack of offense we've seen so far from MSU. In three games so far they are averaging 17 points... throw out the game against Southeastern Louisiana and that average is cut in half, 8 points a game. Furthermore, Bulldog tailback Anthony Dixon's status for Saturday's game is unclear and is day to day per HC Sly Croom. Junior Christian Ducre and redshirt freshman Robert Elliott will share the running back duties if Dixon can't play. Tech has already gone on the road and won a tough game at Boston College and almost pulled off the upset at Va. Tech. In my opinion, Tech is getting better every week and State is stuck in neutral. Lot of points to be giving up considering the two defenses though and the line has already jumped from -7 to -8.5. I still like the Ramblin' Wreck to pull away in the 2nd half and cover.

My prediction is Georgia Tech 23-7.

My bet is Georgia Tech -8.5
 
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RollTide72

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Alabama at Arkansas

Traditionally, the winner of this game has gone on to have a very nice season, thank you very much. The loser, not so much. The last three meetings have been decided by a total of 7 points. I think it's huge for the Pigs that they got a "Bye" week when their game was postponed against Texas. Not only did they not get the physical beat down that was expected from the Longhorns but they were able to prepare for 'Bama that much earlier. Having said all that, Arkansas has had to have two miracle fourth quarter comebacks to defeat Western Illinois and Louisiana Monroe. Arkansas has trailed at halftime of both of its games and has led for a total of 3:11 in the second halves. Also, the Pigs have yet to force a turnover in their first two games. With Air Petrino calling the plays, the passing game has come back to life in Fayetteville... BUT, QB Casey Dick has been sacked 8 times in those two games and you just know that the Alabama defense is a bit better than those first two opponents. The question is how often can the 'Bama defense get into the backfield and disrupt the passing game. Despite the loss of six starters, the Tide has allowed only one offensive touchdown in the first three games and leads D-1 in rushing defense, holding opponents to 42.7 yards per game. They're giving up only 1.9 yards per carry, and haven't allowed a run longer than 13 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide leads the SEC with a 54.8 percent success rate on 3rd down conversions, ranking ninth nationally. 'Bama was 10th in the league last season. 'Bama QB John Parker Wilson has been solid all season long but this is the first real road game for the Tide (Clemson was in the Georgia Dome). If Arkansas gets off to a slow start, it could be a long day for Woo Pig Sooeee. Thankfully it's an 11:30 AM (local time) kickoff, so the Pig fans won't be fully drunk on moonshine. Razorback Stadium is a tough place to play let alone win and if Arkansas is still around in the 4th quarter, watch out. Again, a home team getting points in the SEC is very tempting... this time I'm leaning to the chalk. My heart tells me 'Bama wins going away, but I rarely bet when the Tide is concerned for that very reason.

Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

My prediction is Alabama 27-20

My lean is Arkansas +9.5
 
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dawgball

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Good stuff, Brent.

LSU shows up this week and wins easily.

I don't like Georgia Tech giving up more than a touchdown, but the line is begging for Bulldog action, imo. I won't be playing this one.

I like Arkansas but would like to get 10, and I don't buy points.

Good luck!
 

RollTide72

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Florida at UcheaT

I know it's a game that is circled on the calendar every September by both the Viles and Reptiles. I know it's being played up on Rocky Top and there will be 100,000+ hillbillies screaming at the top of their lungs. I just don't see how UcheaT keeps this game within 2 touchdowns. Phat Phil should be used to being on the coaches hot seat and after losing three in a row to Florida he really doesn't want to lose a fourth. As bad as the loss was to UCLA a few weeks ago, it was magnified when the Bruins lost 59-0 to BYU last weekend. For UcheaT to have a shot at getting to Atlanta, a win against Florida is imperative. Road trips to Awbarn and Jawga won't make it any easier for the Viles. In my opinion, Florida has too many weapons and too much speed for UcheaT to win, let alone cover. I just can't get the awful performance against UCLA out of my mind. Will the Viles be able to provide adequate protection for QB Crompton? Will their defense be able to stop Reptile QB Tebow? Will Phat Phil eat one or two dozen Krispy Kremes before kickoff? I say no to protecting Crompton, no to getting to Tebow and 18 doughnuts. Oh yeah, remember a guy named Percy Harvin? Harvin had nine carries for 75 yards and a touchdown in last year's meeting, and also caught four balls for 120 yards. Here's an interesting fact... the Viles haven't had a rushing play longer than six yards against Florida in the last two matchups. Also, the Gators have limited UcheaT to 92 yards on 69 carries over their last three meetings. It won't be the blowout it was last year in Gainesville, but Florida is just better overall and it will show Saturday. GATOR BAIT!

My prediction is Florida 35-20


My bet is Florida -7
 
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RollTide72

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Vanderbilt at Ole Miss

If Coach O was still trolling the sidelines in Oxford I would bet the house on Vandy. Fortunately for Rebel fans, he was shown the door and Houston Nutt is now calling the plays. As I said last week, I think a bowl game is still out of reach for Vandy, but a win Saturday will raise some eyebrows and my opinion on said bowl game might just change. On the flip side, I think this is an important game for Ole Miss as well. If they want to return to the post season they need every win they can squeeze out of their schedule. I just love Vandy QB Chris Nickson. This season he has 7 TDs with 5 coming on the ground. He has more yards rushing than passing and is a blast to watch. I also think that he's already gone up against one of the better defenses in South Carolina and was able to put 21 points on the scoreboard in the 2nd half. Vandy should be able to pass the ball on Ole Miss, but might find running it a bit more difficult. Rumor has it that Greg Hardy (last year's leading sacker in the SEC) is ready to return to the Rebel lineup after breaking his foot in August. He might not be at 100% speed or strength, but their "D" is that much better with him on the field even if he is not a full strength. One more nugget, Vandy has outscored their opponents 45-10 after halftime this season. This game has the potential of being one of the better games this weekend and unless you are in attendance, won't get to see it for lack of TV coverage. As much as I want to pull the trigger on Vandy, it's hard for me to do so. The line has jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 and if it will get to 7 or over, I will take the points. Either way, SHOW YOUR GOLD!

My prediction is Ole Miss 21-17


My lean is Vandy +6.5
 
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RollTide72

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Georgia at Arizona State

I love this match-up... I think every major BCS school should play one of these a season. UGA won a tough fought battle last weekend in Columbia and gets to fly three time zones west to play a very pissed off ASU team. This game lost a bit of it's luster when the Sun Devils were caught sleeping at home last weekend by UNLV. But make no mistake, they are a good football team and will give the Dawgs all they want. Most of the experts are moaning about UGA's win against the Cocks not being impressive. Listen, any win on the road in the SEC is impressive and if there ever was a trap game for the Dawgs, last Saturday was it. ASU meet Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford... they are Jawga's two headed monster. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to stop the UGA offense very much. ASU's LBs are hurting and/or suspended and to me that spells trouble. If UGA can get to ASU QB Rudy Carpenter, they should win easily. The Sun Devils are 7-9 when Carpenter, a four-year starter, has been sacked more than three times, compared to 19-3 when he isn't. Unless the Dawgs suffer from jet lag, they will head back to Athens with an easier than expected win and a date with my Crimson Tide the following weekend. Hunker down you HAIRY DAWGS!

My prediction is UGA 31-17

My bet is Jawga -7
 
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RollTide72

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South Carolina State/Wofford at South Carolina

Who cares? No line.... it's Wofford. I guess the Head Ball Coach needed a cupcake. :sadwave:

I have no idea who the Cocks are playing.

Several sites have Wofford and the TV says it's South Carolina State. :shrug:

Again, who cares?:mj06:
 
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RollTide72

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And now onto the Over/Unders for the weekend

LSwho at Awbarn... O/U 38
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings (last year over hit).

My bet is UNDER 38

Mississippi State at Georgia Tech... O/U 38
Each team is 2-0 with the Under so far this season. Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games overall and 5-1 in Georgia Tech's last 6 games vs. SEC teams.

My bet is UNDER 38.

Alabama at Arkansas... O/U 46.5
This one is way too close to call for me. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Over is 6-1 in Crimson Tide last 7 games following a S.U. win. Over is 4-0 in Razorbacks last 4 home games.

My lean is OVER 46.5

Florida at UcheaT... O/U 51.5
All Florida trends point to the over and all UcheaT trends point to the under. This one is too close to my predicted score... so I'll pass.

My lean is OVER 51.5

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss... O/U 51
Under is 8-1-1 in Commodores last 10 conference games and 7-3 in Rebels last 10 conference games.

My bet is UNDER 51

Georgia at Arizona State... O/U 50.5

Another one that is too close to my predicted score. Under is 6-1 in Sun Devils last 7 non-conference games. I think if it's a shootout that ASU pulls the upset. I hope that UGA shows the PAC-10 boys how we play defense in the SEC. I hate to pass, but I am.

My lean is UNDER 50.5
 
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RollTide72

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LSwho at Awbarn Update....

**Tailback Brad Lester received another favorable report as he comes back from a scary-looking neck injury last Saturday. Tuberville said Lester went full speed Thursday.

``Getting hit hard for the first time you never know, but he says he has no problem. We'll leave that up to him. The doctors have cleared him,'' Tubeville said.

``He'll probably be sore three weeks from now. But we wouldn't put him out there if there was any chance that there was any damage. He had three MRIs, he had X-rays, went to neuro-surgeons. I talked to them and they said no damage whatsoever.''
 

RollTide72

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Mississippi State at Georgia Tech Update...

Following Thursday?s 90-minute practice, Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom confirmed it: Dixon, the junior preseason all-SEC tailback who injured his groin late last week, will play in Saturday's game at Georgia Tech (11 a.m., ESPN GamePlan).

?He looked OK,? Croom said. ?He didn?t have any pads on, so that?s what I?m worried about, how he?ll look with pads on. I?m concerned. The guy hasn?t practiced all week. He ran around OK today. There?s no way he can be as sharp as he normally is, but we?re better with him than without him. If he's ready to go, he'll start.?
 
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