TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ALABAMA (W)
7-14 vs good pass team (avg > 275 ypg)
3-7 as HD < 7
13-25 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
4-9 as HD
12-5 as RD; 11-2 as RD off ATS loss
14-3 as dog > 7
1-11 as conf host
8-15 after SU loss
2-9-1 as DD RF
3-8 in season open (Utah St)
18-2 vs Miss
1-5 road open (Ark); Ark series dog 5-2
Kentucky series host 5-1
6-1 vs S Miss
8-1 at Tenn; series vis 11-1
16-8 after bye (Miss St)
7-1 at LSU
7-3 vs Aub; 3-6 final home
ARKANSAS (W)
6-13 as RF
6-17 vs good defence (allow < 285 ypg)
3-6 as DD fave
10-1 as HD (7-1 with Nutt)
4-8-1 vs Texas
8-4 in conf open (Alabama)
3-8 road open (Fla); 2-10 after Alabama
5-1 vs S Carolina
Miss St series dog 10-2; 1-6 final road
LSU series dog 5-2
AUBURN (W)
2-9 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
12-21 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
5-12 off home conf loss
5-9 vs LSU
Tenn series fave 9-5; 1-6-1 at Tenn
9-0-1 vs La Tech; 1-6 before Ark
Ark series dog 6-1; home team 7-3
5-1 vs Kentucky
3-10 on turf (Miss); 1-10 before bye (Miss)
Georgia series dog 8-4; 1-9 final home
3-9 as fave vs Alabama; series vis 8-1
FLORIDA (E)
20-6 off BB home (Tenn, LSU, Miss St)
3-8 vs poor team (win pct < 25%)
3-10 at home
1-4 vs MAC
5-8 host non-conf
8-0 as conf dog
1-10 conf fave with Zook
9-1 road open (Tenn)
7-3 vs Kentucky
0-5 in 2nd BB home (E Mich, Ark)
LSU series vis 17-6-1
11-3 vs Georgia; 7-1 in 2nd BB away (? neutral); 8-2 before Vandy
3-7 vs Vandy
Fla St series host 7-2; 1-6 final road
GEORGIA (E)
8-1 off home conf win
14-7 as RD
10-0 after 2 or more SU losses
11-24 off road win
11-5 off SU loss
11-3 as single digit fave
2-5 as non-conf host
S Carolina series dog 1-6
2-6 before bye (Marsh, Aub)
6-2 after bye (LSU, Geo Tech)
LSU SU winner 6-1; 2-6 vs LSU; 8-1 before Tenn
Vandy series vis 10-2
3-11 vs Fla
Aub series vis 8-3; 10-3 final road
10-3 vs Geo Tech; series host 1-5
KENTUCKY (E)
4-12 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
9-1 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
13-22 off home loss
7-2 vs SEC West (Aub, Miss St)
8-4 as RD
2-8 as HD < 8
13-6 after bye (Indiana, Tenn)
2-5 road before bye (Louis)
9-1 before Fla (Indiana)
3-7 conf open (Fla); 3-7 vs Fla
2-4-1 vs MAC
Alabama series host 5-1
2-6 vs S Carolina; series host 2-11
1-7 off 3+ home (Aub)
Miss St. series vis 5-1; 1-6 in 2nd BB road (Miss St); 9-2-1 before Georg
5-14 vs Vandy (5-3 L 8 yrs)
2-10 vs Tenn; 3-15 final road; 3-15-1 after Vandy
LSU (W)
13-6 vs good defence (allow < 285 ypg)
2-9 as HF 14.5 to 21 pts
16-8 after allow < 14 pts in BB games
6-17 off road conf loss
13-3 off home win
14-4 after SU win
6-3-1 vs Pac 10
7-3 road open (Aub)
11-1 vs Miss St
Georgia SU winner 7-1; 1-7 after Miss St
3-6-1 in 1st BB road (Georgia)
5-9 before bye (Fla, Vandy)
0-6 host Alabama; series host 1-11
2-8 host Miss; series dog 6-1; 1-6-1 before Ark
Ark series dog 5-2
MISSISSIPPI (W)
12-3 off conf loss < 7 pts
7-15-1 as DD fave
9-1 as DD RD
6-10 vs non-conf
8-1 as DD conf dog
8-2-1 as RF < 12
Memph series host 6-2
5-14 vs Alabama; series SU winner 18-2
0-7 as DD HF vs Vandy; series host 2-7-1
S Carolina series fave 1-5
Tenn series dog 6-2
3-6 vs Aub; series vis 7-1
Ark series fave 9-2-1; 9-1-1 after Aub
8-2 final road (LSU); 4-0 at LSU; 0-5 after Ark
3-7 final home (Miss St)
4-12-1 as Nov host
MISSISSIPPI STATE (W)
11-4 as RD < 7 pts
6-19 off SU loss
17-9 vs good teams (win pct > 75%)
7-17 vs conf; 2-13 as conf dog
3-13 after allow > 28
Aub series fave 9-3
1-11 vs LSU
5-0 vs Vandy
6-10 before bye (UAB, Alabama)
6-9-1 vs Fla; 1-6 before Kentucky
1-7 after bye (Fla, Ark)
Kentucky series vis 5-1
10-3 vs Alabama
3-7 final home (Ark); series dog 10-2
1-4 vs Miss
SOUTH CAROLINA (E)
12-20 vs good defence (allow < 17 ppg)
5-10 as HF < 7 pts
1-6 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
4-10 off SU loss
1-6-1 season open (Vandy); 9-3 vs Vandy
1-5-1 home open (Georgia)
1-4 in 3rd of 3+ home (Troy St)
7-0 at Kentucky; 10-2 before Tenn
Tenn series host 1-6
Ark series fave 9-1; 2-11 final home
Clemson series vis 12-3; 8-3 at Clemson
TENNESSEE (E)
12-2 as RF < 7
14-5 vs good offence (avg > 425 ypg)
4-16 vs poor offence (avg < 285 ypg)
10-4 on road
16-7 after 2 or more ATS losses
7-3 off home loss
24-5 as conf RF < 13
4-6 as non-conf HF; 7-2 home open (UNLV)
1-6 before bye (UNLV, N Dame)
3-7-1 vs Fla; series dog 5-2-1
3-7 in HC game (La Tech)
5-1-1 host Aub
Georgia series fave 5-2
Miss series dog 6-2
3-9 host Alabama; series host 1-11
7-1 before Vandy (N Dame)
10-2 vs Kentucky; 11-2 final home
VANDERBILT (E)
10-1 off win < 7 pts
4-12 as HF
6-16 after 2 or more ATS wins
15-8-1 as DD HD
4-9 as DD fave
2-8-1 non-conf
0-10 off DD win
Miss series host 2-7-1; 4-0-1 vs Miss; 8-2 after S Car
Georgia series vis 10-2
7-3 vs Fla; 1-10 in HC game
14-5 vs Kentucky
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ALABAMA (W)
7-14 vs good pass team (avg > 275 ypg)
3-7 as HD < 7
13-25 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
4-9 as HD
12-5 as RD; 11-2 as RD off ATS loss
14-3 as dog > 7
1-11 as conf host
8-15 after SU loss
2-9-1 as DD RF
3-8 in season open (Utah St)
18-2 vs Miss
1-5 road open (Ark); Ark series dog 5-2
Kentucky series host 5-1
6-1 vs S Miss
8-1 at Tenn; series vis 11-1
16-8 after bye (Miss St)
7-1 at LSU
7-3 vs Aub; 3-6 final home
ARKANSAS (W)
6-13 as RF
6-17 vs good defence (allow < 285 ypg)
3-6 as DD fave
10-1 as HD (7-1 with Nutt)
4-8-1 vs Texas
8-4 in conf open (Alabama)
3-8 road open (Fla); 2-10 after Alabama
5-1 vs S Carolina
Miss St series dog 10-2; 1-6 final road
LSU series dog 5-2
AUBURN (W)
2-9 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
12-21 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
5-12 off home conf loss
5-9 vs LSU
Tenn series fave 9-5; 1-6-1 at Tenn
9-0-1 vs La Tech; 1-6 before Ark
Ark series dog 6-1; home team 7-3
5-1 vs Kentucky
3-10 on turf (Miss); 1-10 before bye (Miss)
Georgia series dog 8-4; 1-9 final home
3-9 as fave vs Alabama; series vis 8-1
FLORIDA (E)
20-6 off BB home (Tenn, LSU, Miss St)
3-8 vs poor team (win pct < 25%)
3-10 at home
1-4 vs MAC
5-8 host non-conf
8-0 as conf dog
1-10 conf fave with Zook
9-1 road open (Tenn)
7-3 vs Kentucky
0-5 in 2nd BB home (E Mich, Ark)
LSU series vis 17-6-1
11-3 vs Georgia; 7-1 in 2nd BB away (? neutral); 8-2 before Vandy
3-7 vs Vandy
Fla St series host 7-2; 1-6 final road
GEORGIA (E)
8-1 off home conf win
14-7 as RD
10-0 after 2 or more SU losses
11-24 off road win
11-5 off SU loss
11-3 as single digit fave
2-5 as non-conf host
S Carolina series dog 1-6
2-6 before bye (Marsh, Aub)
6-2 after bye (LSU, Geo Tech)
LSU SU winner 6-1; 2-6 vs LSU; 8-1 before Tenn
Vandy series vis 10-2
3-11 vs Fla
Aub series vis 8-3; 10-3 final road
10-3 vs Geo Tech; series host 1-5
KENTUCKY (E)
4-12 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
9-1 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
13-22 off home loss
7-2 vs SEC West (Aub, Miss St)
8-4 as RD
2-8 as HD < 8
13-6 after bye (Indiana, Tenn)
2-5 road before bye (Louis)
9-1 before Fla (Indiana)
3-7 conf open (Fla); 3-7 vs Fla
2-4-1 vs MAC
Alabama series host 5-1
2-6 vs S Carolina; series host 2-11
1-7 off 3+ home (Aub)
Miss St. series vis 5-1; 1-6 in 2nd BB road (Miss St); 9-2-1 before Georg
5-14 vs Vandy (5-3 L 8 yrs)
2-10 vs Tenn; 3-15 final road; 3-15-1 after Vandy
LSU (W)
13-6 vs good defence (allow < 285 ypg)
2-9 as HF 14.5 to 21 pts
16-8 after allow < 14 pts in BB games
6-17 off road conf loss
13-3 off home win
14-4 after SU win
6-3-1 vs Pac 10
7-3 road open (Aub)
11-1 vs Miss St
Georgia SU winner 7-1; 1-7 after Miss St
3-6-1 in 1st BB road (Georgia)
5-9 before bye (Fla, Vandy)
0-6 host Alabama; series host 1-11
2-8 host Miss; series dog 6-1; 1-6-1 before Ark
Ark series dog 5-2
MISSISSIPPI (W)
12-3 off conf loss < 7 pts
7-15-1 as DD fave
9-1 as DD RD
6-10 vs non-conf
8-1 as DD conf dog
8-2-1 as RF < 12
Memph series host 6-2
5-14 vs Alabama; series SU winner 18-2
0-7 as DD HF vs Vandy; series host 2-7-1
S Carolina series fave 1-5
Tenn series dog 6-2
3-6 vs Aub; series vis 7-1
Ark series fave 9-2-1; 9-1-1 after Aub
8-2 final road (LSU); 4-0 at LSU; 0-5 after Ark
3-7 final home (Miss St)
4-12-1 as Nov host
MISSISSIPPI STATE (W)
11-4 as RD < 7 pts
6-19 off SU loss
17-9 vs good teams (win pct > 75%)
7-17 vs conf; 2-13 as conf dog
3-13 after allow > 28
Aub series fave 9-3
1-11 vs LSU
5-0 vs Vandy
6-10 before bye (UAB, Alabama)
6-9-1 vs Fla; 1-6 before Kentucky
1-7 after bye (Fla, Ark)
Kentucky series vis 5-1
10-3 vs Alabama
3-7 final home (Ark); series dog 10-2
1-4 vs Miss
SOUTH CAROLINA (E)
12-20 vs good defence (allow < 17 ppg)
5-10 as HF < 7 pts
1-6 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
4-10 off SU loss
1-6-1 season open (Vandy); 9-3 vs Vandy
1-5-1 home open (Georgia)
1-4 in 3rd of 3+ home (Troy St)
7-0 at Kentucky; 10-2 before Tenn
Tenn series host 1-6
Ark series fave 9-1; 2-11 final home
Clemson series vis 12-3; 8-3 at Clemson
TENNESSEE (E)
12-2 as RF < 7
14-5 vs good offence (avg > 425 ypg)
4-16 vs poor offence (avg < 285 ypg)
10-4 on road
16-7 after 2 or more ATS losses
7-3 off home loss
24-5 as conf RF < 13
4-6 as non-conf HF; 7-2 home open (UNLV)
1-6 before bye (UNLV, N Dame)
3-7-1 vs Fla; series dog 5-2-1
3-7 in HC game (La Tech)
5-1-1 host Aub
Georgia series fave 5-2
Miss series dog 6-2
3-9 host Alabama; series host 1-11
7-1 before Vandy (N Dame)
10-2 vs Kentucky; 11-2 final home
VANDERBILT (E)
10-1 off win < 7 pts
4-12 as HF
6-16 after 2 or more ATS wins
15-8-1 as DD HD
4-9 as DD fave
2-8-1 non-conf
0-10 off DD win
Miss series host 2-7-1; 4-0-1 vs Miss; 8-2 after S Car
Georgia series vis 10-2
7-3 vs Fla; 1-10 in HC game
14-5 vs Kentucky
