Mebbe this info will be useful. Had a huge document which got trapped in my now defunct laptop .. so jotted down my observations .. someone did mention that its better not to put down angles where the books can see them also but there are no % associated with each angle and its just something that is logical ... hopefully it helps us make $$$.
Some of my observations which I use in the second half are:
1. Some teams like Memphis and Denver are strong in the second half. Phoenix especially plays very well in the second half for some reason. They are useless in the first half but turn on the jets in the second half. I have noticed that whenever Shawn Marion has around 5-7 points in the first half he usually explodes in the second half to reach his season average.
2. Similarly a golden rule to make money is to fade certain teams when they are ahead at the half. Teams which fall into this category are Cleveland, Knicks, Washington, Denver [if its possible that they are up @ the half], Atlanta
3. Dallas is the best team when it comes to running time off the clock. If you think the game is going to be a blowout then take the Under for the fourth Quarter. Dallas reserves are horrible @ scoring but they are the best when it comes to slowing down the pace of the game. That is one of the things which they have been doing different than last year and is resulting in so many Unders coming in [also the fact that they are actually playing some defence]
4. Usually Toronto, Washington and Knicks when they are leading have the third Q as the worst Quarter of the game. Somehow they get tired and miss a lot of shots in the third. This is only if they are leading @ the half.
The above is specific for teams. Some generalized angles I follow is:
1. If a favorite is down @ the half take the fav to cover for the third Quarter. The reasoning is that the fav will come out much stronger after the angry meeting in the locker room.
2. If the game is going to be a blowout take the dog and the points for the fourth Q. This angle applies even for the whole game <-- taking the fourth Q before game starts. The reasoning is that the dog always wants to lose by a reasonable margin. The winning team does not care if they win by 10 or by 20 points. So the team which has a huge lead in the fourth Q usually rests the starters but the losing geam which is usually the dog have their players in to make up for horrible play in the prev. 3 Quarters. I have had very good success with teams like Denver 4'th Q, Cleveland 4'th Q, Memphis 4'th Q.
3. Same for blowout: Take the Under for the fourth Q. Usually the zebra's dont call fouls when its a blowout game and the garbage moppers are in.
4. Countless times i have seen the flow of game in the second half be exactly opposite to that of the first half.
e.g. If both teams shoot excellent in the first half [FG shooting > 55 %] the pace will slow down a lot in the second half
e.g. If both teams shoot horrible in the first half [FG shooting < 42%] the pace will pick up and the shooting will improve.
Have seen shooting average out to around 46% a lot of times. Please remember that this is a just a generalization and all angles have to applied keeping in mind a lot of other things like
a. Personal fouls on key players
b. Number of field goals attempted <-- this gives an indication to the flow of the game .. is it fast paced or the guards are not rushing the ball up the floor .. cannot emphasize how much 1 or 2 seconds mean in the end .. its the difference betn another foul committed or not.
c. Three point shooting <-- teams like boston, Bucks and Knicks which rely a lot on 3 point shooting . . if they shoot an excellent percentage [around 55 - 60%] then the law of averages will more often than not catch up in the second half to bring down percentages for the game to around 34 - 40% which may be their season average.
d. Free throws attempted: ARE THE DUMB ZEBRAS willing to blow the whistle @ every opportunity. If yes then the under is not a safe bet bcoz the time clock stops and there are lot of foul shots ..
e.g. the game betn Nets @ Denver - Denver had 5 team fouls 3 minutes into the 3'rd Q Nets were in the penalty 4 minutes into the fourth Q. The Under total was set @ 83 1/2 and I think around 96 points were scored inspite of Nets leading by 20+ points thruout the second half.
Most important Rule: Keep off the LA Teams .. Hornets .. these teams are just too unpredictable as to what they wanna do.
What i have said above is not exactly rocket science but may help you and me to make money and beat the book. Please give your feedback.
# have seen the denver under in the second half go down in smoke recently in the last 3 games. I have been betting denver under for the whole game. This has worked out much better
bcoz Denver tends to play horribly in the first half. [Of course I remember I played against them in the first Q once and they scored 32 points in the first Q - season high] <-- did not work for game with Portland yesterday.
Good luck in your plays
Cheers !!!
Spock
Some of my observations which I use in the second half are:
1. Some teams like Memphis and Denver are strong in the second half. Phoenix especially plays very well in the second half for some reason. They are useless in the first half but turn on the jets in the second half. I have noticed that whenever Shawn Marion has around 5-7 points in the first half he usually explodes in the second half to reach his season average.
2. Similarly a golden rule to make money is to fade certain teams when they are ahead at the half. Teams which fall into this category are Cleveland, Knicks, Washington, Denver [if its possible that they are up @ the half], Atlanta
3. Dallas is the best team when it comes to running time off the clock. If you think the game is going to be a blowout then take the Under for the fourth Quarter. Dallas reserves are horrible @ scoring but they are the best when it comes to slowing down the pace of the game. That is one of the things which they have been doing different than last year and is resulting in so many Unders coming in [also the fact that they are actually playing some defence]
4. Usually Toronto, Washington and Knicks when they are leading have the third Q as the worst Quarter of the game. Somehow they get tired and miss a lot of shots in the third. This is only if they are leading @ the half.
The above is specific for teams. Some generalized angles I follow is:
1. If a favorite is down @ the half take the fav to cover for the third Quarter. The reasoning is that the fav will come out much stronger after the angry meeting in the locker room.
2. If the game is going to be a blowout take the dog and the points for the fourth Q. This angle applies even for the whole game <-- taking the fourth Q before game starts. The reasoning is that the dog always wants to lose by a reasonable margin. The winning team does not care if they win by 10 or by 20 points. So the team which has a huge lead in the fourth Q usually rests the starters but the losing geam which is usually the dog have their players in to make up for horrible play in the prev. 3 Quarters. I have had very good success with teams like Denver 4'th Q, Cleveland 4'th Q, Memphis 4'th Q.
3. Same for blowout: Take the Under for the fourth Q. Usually the zebra's dont call fouls when its a blowout game and the garbage moppers are in.
4. Countless times i have seen the flow of game in the second half be exactly opposite to that of the first half.
e.g. If both teams shoot excellent in the first half [FG shooting > 55 %] the pace will slow down a lot in the second half
e.g. If both teams shoot horrible in the first half [FG shooting < 42%] the pace will pick up and the shooting will improve.
Have seen shooting average out to around 46% a lot of times. Please remember that this is a just a generalization and all angles have to applied keeping in mind a lot of other things like
a. Personal fouls on key players
b. Number of field goals attempted <-- this gives an indication to the flow of the game .. is it fast paced or the guards are not rushing the ball up the floor .. cannot emphasize how much 1 or 2 seconds mean in the end .. its the difference betn another foul committed or not.
c. Three point shooting <-- teams like boston, Bucks and Knicks which rely a lot on 3 point shooting . . if they shoot an excellent percentage [around 55 - 60%] then the law of averages will more often than not catch up in the second half to bring down percentages for the game to around 34 - 40% which may be their season average.
d. Free throws attempted: ARE THE DUMB ZEBRAS willing to blow the whistle @ every opportunity. If yes then the under is not a safe bet bcoz the time clock stops and there are lot of foul shots ..
e.g. the game betn Nets @ Denver - Denver had 5 team fouls 3 minutes into the 3'rd Q Nets were in the penalty 4 minutes into the fourth Q. The Under total was set @ 83 1/2 and I think around 96 points were scored inspite of Nets leading by 20+ points thruout the second half.
Most important Rule: Keep off the LA Teams .. Hornets .. these teams are just too unpredictable as to what they wanna do.
What i have said above is not exactly rocket science but may help you and me to make money and beat the book. Please give your feedback.
# have seen the denver under in the second half go down in smoke recently in the last 3 games. I have been betting denver under for the whole game. This has worked out much better
bcoz Denver tends to play horribly in the first half. [Of course I remember I played against them in the first Q once and they scored 32 points in the first Q - season high] <-- did not work for game with Portland yesterday.
Good luck in your plays
Cheers !!!
Spock
