seeking our truth in gambling?

pt1gard

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Apr 7, 2002
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after not betting much hoops i tried a few CTs and a couple of my own and got slaughtered ...

including the bulls on Teaser to Deet ...

went 2-6 including lucky ucla win ...

Im amazed people can win in long haul betting college hoops; indiv. games just crush me, grind me down; only thing I EVER win on are Futures ...

the grind of season just kills me with so many tuff losses; seems like i never get evening out of lucky 1/2 pt wins etc ... and this is after 25+ years doign it

would like to see honest tally of guys who believe they are ahead/behind on indiv. games in cfb/nfl/mlb/cbb/nba in last year or so or lifetime...

for myself im not even close--if not for bigger future bets Id been destroyed the last few years, thats why I bet peanuts on indiv. games and big on season long bets

just curious to see who will respond and be honest; b/c I have a ton of respect for anyone who makes much $$$ year in year out in this biz

take care
gregg
 
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maverick2112

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Jan 16, 2001
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PG.........the only thing I have been able to win at are selected teasers and futures the last few yrs........betting the games day to day just seem to be a crapshoot...........some people claim to win season after season but I have followed a lot and nevver seem to find someone winning consistently.

I have had the best success of just playing really small for the week......then if I am winning increase my bets for rest of the week........I have had weeks where I started off betting 20-50 a games and got up say 300-400 by thursday then increase bets to 150-300 then maybe on Sunday I will bet 500 a game if I am up 800........if my week is not going well or I am breaking even I just stick to small plays all week.......I have had a big week going only to lose it all on Sunday( like last sunday when I put every thing I was up for the week on Pitt 1250-1150 and lost) which sucks but I also have won 2500 for a week starting out betting 25 and 50 plays...........This keeps me from chasing when I am doing bad and I figure if I lose everything on Sunday then I just lost what I was up and am back to 0 for the week...I set a limit of losses of $300 a week when I am down that much I just quit for the week....its sounds crazy but when I am down I tend to just lose more rather than get even or ahead for the week.....some weeks I am done betting for the week on thursday :rolleyes: ....Now a lot of people will say this is a stupid way to bet but it has worked for me the last couple of seasons so I say to each his one........basicall my betting unit is dependent on how I am doing for the week......I figure if I can hit the big week twice in a football season then I will do ok.....and like I said before I never chase betting like this......I think chasing is what screws up everyones money management........
 
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Trizzle

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Jan 13, 2005
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I don't "capp" games. I think it is a losing proposition -- and most people who have jobs don't have the time to devote. Between my job, kids etc., I simply don't have the time to read etc.

I ONLY play emotional situations/system. And yes, if you are disciplined, it has been a winning thing for me year after year. The problem is that it doesn't yield many plays -- maybe one or two a week. Sometimes none in a week, sometimes five.

The emotional play is strong in college hoops because of the short time between games, the extreme highs and lows of the young players, and the incalculable home court advantage.

Example system: if a ranked team loses straight up to an unranked team and then plays their next game at home against another unranked team, always play on the ranked team.

Sometimes also play the other side, play against the unranked team, (or upsetting team) after a huge emotional win. Play against them in their next game if they play "away".

This second example in football is called the "tear the goalposts down" play. If a team ever tears down the goalposts, always play against them the following week if they play on the road.

Follow these situations. It easy because you only have to pay attention to the top 25 --which most cappers will tell you are more predictable than the lower 100 teams. Follow them, pay attention to upsets, be disciplined, and you can win. Again, the problem is not much action. You aren't going to get 10 plays a day like some of the MJ cappers here post.

When a play comes, play it for some real money. GL!!
 

UT-Longhorn

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mode the lode said:
DID YOU EVER NOTICE------------ BOOKIES DRIVE CADDYS

what do we drive ?


a new escalade myself..........not everyone loses at sports wagering......just gotta "figure" it out :mj14:
 

Save It

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Jun 21, 2004
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This is a very interesting topic and I would like to contribute to it. I am a firm believer that only about 10% of people max will win in the long run sports betting. I believe the people that do will earn the honor of profiting from sports betting. I would say 80% of sports bettors will lose simply because they don't take the time to do their homework, they don't take time to understand the psychology of the line - one of the most important factors i look at when playing a side or total - they want to make the "quick buck" - which doesn't exist. Only through hard work, research, instinct, psychology, and discipline can a person win on a conisitent basis. I love this forum - but honestly I think there are a lot of people who believe by just browsing this message board they can find all the miracle answers from every single person - and the truth is you just can't. Not everyone here is winning, and probably because they just are not putting in the full effort needed to consistently win. Of the other 20% who truely do put time into research and understanding, still only half of these people will be successful. That is where i come up with the 10% estimate of overall successful bettors. Of the 20% who do put time into it, half will either not look at the right stuff, or just simply not manage their money well enough to win in the long run...this being said I am a person who fits in the category of the 10% long term winning sports bettors.

Personally, I have been sports betting for the start of my 6th year now. I am 27 years old, and did not start betting sports for money until i had the funds to do so - i am a firm believe people should be betting w/ a bankroll they started from excess funds they have available AFTER they pay for all bills, mortgages, car payments, credit cards, food, utilities, other expenses, and AFTER they have put money away in their 401K (if you are not taking advantage of your employer's 401K - do it now and thank me later!) and AFTER they put money aside in savings, money markets, bonds and other investments like mutual funds and individual stocks. I approach this as investing in sports...just as i put away money every month in mutual funds, savings, stock investments, i put money away for sports investing, and use this money on my sports investments...now i went to college and have a double major in MIS and Finance - and have been a successful Information Technology Consultant for the past 5 years...the 4 years i was in college i always was intrigued by sports betting and spent a lot of time making my picks and i documented everything but did it w/o putting actual money at risk - but wanted to track how i would do - i figured i didn't have money to risk while in college - and advise college kids looking for the quick buck or spending the last of what they have to wait and do what i did...now i know it's not that exciting to see what overall "paper record" and "paper win/loss" you have - but after 4 years of tracking - and i track NFL, NBA, NCAA college bb & fb, and MLB - i had 3 winning years and 1 losing year, the losing year being the 2nd year i tracked...like i said i have really looked at the ins and outs of how the line is set - track where money is flowing, what the public likes, and all sorts of factors...anyways i totally felt comfortable and confident i could make some decent money sports investing as soon as i graduated and had a nice income coming in.

So i started in January 2000 as a "rookie sports bettor" putting my money at risk for the first time...but i kind of felt like a seasoned veteran because of the research and tracking i did for 4 years while in college...anyways the rest is history - i have bet sports for 5 complete years, this month starting my 6th, and all 5 years i have bet for money have been winning years...always have ups and downs - but by each years end have showed a profit...last season was my best overall season ever making five figures over the course of the year for the second year in a row...have built up a very nice "sports fund" (i actually treat this as my very own mutual fund where i am the fund manager) over the past 5 years and i don't feel it is because of luck...i put in 100% honest hard work and take pride in doing it well...i have several close friends i help out w/ advice...i drive a 2003 BMW M3 and bought a 2004 Mercedes C230 Kompressor Sport Sedan for my wife over the summer...live in a nice new house i bought a few years ago...life is good - and yes sports investing success has something to do w/ being able to drive both a BMW and Mercedes...but at the same time the hard work i've invested into going to college, securing a good career, and investing in other investments is the main reason for having a nice lifestyle - and people should not lose sight of that - they shouldn't expect to get rich quick sports investing...i've always had the philosophy of paying myself first - and putting money away in several investments, and not to carry too much debt (always pay for at least 50% of my vehicles w/ cash) - and never put money at risk you need - if you are betting money if lost would cause you to have a different lifestyle - you are doing something very bad if you do this - stop immediately - only invest in sports after you put money away for savings, investments, and pay all your bills...

My advice to everyone who invests in sports is to treat it like a business and to not take it lightly - don't bet for the action - make winning a goal and achieve it...just as you can't blindly invest in stocks - you must research the heck out of companies - you must do your research EVERY day you plan to invest in sports...i know i will not play a play unless I truely feel confident in the play...

As many may gather by my long post (i tend to write alot sometimes) i really enjoy writing and I have been working on writing my own sports investing and money management book, which i have the end goal of being published someday soon in the near future...have no deadline set - but my mission is to write a book in which people upon reading will say "wow - this is powerful - this guy truely understands what it takes to be successful while investing in sports, and i can apply what he does to be just as successful"...honestly i think w/ all the books out there, there is a lack of quality sports investing books...i have read several - and most of them just don't get down to explaining to someone w/ absolutely no sports investing experience what they need to do to be successful in the long run...we all no there is no magic formula that makes sports investing simple - however there are lots of things one can do to prepare themselves to make the best possible wagers and become a successful sports investor. So far i have over 200 pages of the book written, and i will continue to refine it until i think it is truely a complete text...I speak of systems i use, what i look for, what i've learned over the years, different ways to manage your money, and go into great detail about what i believe are the most important indicators of finding successful picks...so hopefully someday in the future it will become published...i always accomplish any goal i set, so i know it will.

In conclusion - yes - you can make money sports investing...but at the same time if you are consistently losing there becomes a point where you have to ask yourself "Why am i losing?"...I believe in evaluating plays before and after...learn from your losses as well as from your wins.

I believe ANYONE can win at sports investing...it may take years of hard work to figure it all out - but when you do it is a BEAUTIFUL thing!

Good luck!

--SAVE IT!
 

lenniethelock

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:scared imo it would take more than that few years of experiance,to have the knowledge to write a how too.just saying as what i know now compared to what i knew after my first 6 serious years of this would be a new ballgame completely.plus i couldnt write a book anyway i guess cause of lack of grammer and typeing skills.lol so good luck either way.
 

mode the lode

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i thought only the SAC KINGS drive escalades ?

oh well i guess they didnt buy them all.

300 C my choice ---- like SNOOP DOG
 

maverick2112

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Save It..........good post.......

a couple of thoughts.......you post

" I would say 80% of sports bettors will lose simply because they don't take the time to do their homework"

I would respectafully disagree........from what I have seen in 20 plus yrs of this is that the majority of people are not bad cappers but bad at money management and chase there losses.......just like any kind of gambling, cards slots etc people tend to bet more when they are losing...........

What exactly is " doing your homework"..........I presume you mean studying the teams and the games but I have had week when I have spent hrs upon hrs of studying only to get beat by a last second shot or an officials bad call.........

."..but at the same time if you are consistently losing there becomes a point where you have to ask yourself "Why am i losing?"

the old saying goes.......if you are doing something with unsuccessful results......then change the way you are doing it or stop doing it alltogether..........
 

saint

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Jan 10, 2002
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I know personally for myself in college hoops for the entire year last year and this year combined I am at about 51 or 52%...I just went through the printouts from Pinnacle. So pretty much have just lost the vig. My % on UNC games is much higher but unfortunately every time I go big I lose on them. It's karma I suppose...but if i could just have connected on those times i went big i'd be up nicely. Will keep plugging along, i actually was pleasantly surprised to see after that many wagers I am close to the 56% or so needed to make money in the end.
 

stwoody

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Good Topic-
Very hard to pick consistent winners in college hoops/NBA. For me these have been the two hardest sports due to the amount of games played on a daily basis. Still, there are some jewels out there, and when they come up you have to take advantage. I lived in Reno for 5 years to this for a living, and I was very successful, but there were times when I almost threw in the towel. It is tremendously hard to make a living doing this. Every good capper will have their stretches...........kinda like basketball.....it is too often a game of runs. The key has always been to hold back and play on paper when you experience a down run. Seen too many good cappers lose their br. by chasing what they thought were sure winners. Takes a lot of patience. Life wasn't all glitz and glory. Too much running around town looking for the best line. Always found College Foots/Pro foots to produce the greater amount of units throughout the season. Where I have always made my money is by finding the hidden gems and raising my bet units on these. Its how I always turned a profit. Most don't have the patience for that. And even when your hitting at a 50% keel you can still turn a nice profit.
Stwoody
 

vinnie

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mode the lode said:
DID YOU EVER NOTICE------------ BOOKIES DRIVE CADDYS

what do we drive ?

Yea I like to piss mine off so every once in a while I will rent a limo to pick up my money :mj07:
 
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