Seems odd to me>>>>

[ssd]

So, let me preface this with the following statement:

I invest a set amount of money per month into precious metals - actual physical precious metals, not a Precious Metal ETF fund.

So, I am hearing commercials for silver and gold, saying that there is a silver shortage, so you should buy now, in case the Mint or whomever runs out of silver again and they expect the price of silver to double from here (they do not, however, give a time frame for the price increase)

Anyway, if you had a lot of silver and you thought there would be a significant price increase from here and a possible shortage, would you be selling it?

I realize that selling silver and gold commercially is their business but it seems odd.


Personally, I think we will see a decline in PM prices ( if we have a financial crash or panic) before we see an increase in their prices unless no panic ensues and it just becomes a print-fest.

 

[Duff Miver]

So, let me preface this with the following statement:

I invest a set amount of money per month into precious metals - actual physical precious metals, not a Precious Metal ETF fund.

So, I am hearing commercials for silver and gold, saying that there is a silver shortage, so you should buy now, in case the Mint or whomever runs out of silver again and they expect the price of silver to double from here (they do not, however, give a time frame for the price increase)

Anyway, if you had a lot of silver and you thought there would be a significant price increase from here and a possible shortage, would you be selling it?

I realize that selling silver and gold commercially is their business but it seems odd.


Personally, I think we will see a decline in PM prices ( if we have a financial crash or panic) before we see an increase in their prices unless no panic ensues and it just becomes a print-fest.

Silver is a bit of an odd duck. Right now it's being treated as a speculative precious metal, but for most of recent history silver has been a commodity used in the electrical and chemicals industries. For example, most high temp and aerospace copper wire is silver plated. I worked in that industry for a good many years, for the largest silver/wire plating company. We consumed as much as 100K troy oz per week. That business still exists and still consumes silver as a commodity. Little of that silver will ever be recycled.

Silverware was at one time a big consumer, but has declined considerably over the past few decades.

Silver coinage is gone.

Photographic film, once a huge consumer of silver is gone.

Silver jewelry usage is flat.

Chemical (biocides) use is up some.

Electronics use is up some.

Bear in mind that much, if not most silver doesn't come from silver mines. Rather it is a byproduct of other mining, primarily copper mining. Thus changing silver prices don't influence silver production.

For some time now silver prices have been speculative, tracking gold.

At some time I would expect silver to diverge from gold.

High interest rates, for example, can curb the spec demand for gold, but silver will continue to be used as a commodity. Right now it's an overpriced commodity, but one which does have a floor under it.

Speculating in gold scares me. I sold almost all of mine back at $1100-1200.

Back about 1980 I watched silver go from $4 to a one day peak of $50 and back down $5. The Hunt Bros thought they could corner the silver market, and were still buying @$50. Word is they lost $2 billion. LOL

Silver @ $30 scares me too. I wouldn't care to own any. If it falls under $10, I could own some and sleep well.

 

[ssd]

Thanks, Duff.

I'm aware of the electronic use of silver and that is has more industrial uses than gold.

I just don't buy the hype from these commercials that there is a shortage, etc and you need to buy it now!!!!!

I'm very comfortable accumulating my set amount every month.

My personal view is that the world will see USD strength during the next crisis and all commodities will come down based on the USD strength. However, once the cover is pulled away on the USD, I think that is when it will be wise to own PM. When that happens is anyone's guess but when I see commodities falling and the USD strengthening, I will increase my monthly expenditures.

I bought gold around $300 and sold it around $660 thinking I had made a great trade - hahaha

Still have some gold but wish I had waited on that trade.

 

[Duff Miver]

I agree: the USD will strengthen, interest rates will rise, speculative commodities will take a hit.

Armageddon? I don't think so.

In at $300, out at $660? :toast: I'll take that all day, every day.