Full disclosure: historically, I've done worse on the playoff games than on the bowl games.
I mentioned previously that I like Miami and Indiana. Last week, not long after the lines came out, I bet these two parlays:
Miami (ML)/Indiana (ML) 4 to win 6.4
Miami (-3)/Indiana (-4) 4 to win 10.8
Not a hell of a lot I can add about these teams that I haven't already discussed.
This is the best defense Ole Miss has faced since October. Miami continues to be excellent against the run, allowing 2.8 yards/rush. They'll be geared up for Kewan Lacy, who has rushed for at least one TD in every game but one this season. The Hurricanes have picked off 4 passes in their 2 playoff games. They've also registered 12 sacks. They'll need to dial up the pressure to force Chambliss into some bad throws. He's only thrown 3 INTs all year. He's also only been sacked 13 times, but Marcel Reed had only been sacked 10 times all year before Miami got him 7 times.
This will be the worse defense Miami has faced in the playoffs, although Ole Miss is comparable to Texas A&M. In fact, both A&M and Ole Miss allow exactly 4.19 yards/rush. Fletcher, who has been running hard in both playoff games, racked up 172 (on 17 carries) against A&M. He could have another big game tonight. And what can you say about Carson Beck? Nothing flashy. Two workmanlike efforts in the playoffs. 2 TDs and 0 INTs. He just wins.
Four big X factors for me tonight.
1) Malachi Toney. Immensely talented kid, but he's just that. A kid. He's been an 18-year old boy playing against men. 3 fumbles in 2 games. So you know Ole Miss has been focused in practice on punching that ball out even more than usual. And, with all the hype around him, this surprised me... his biggest play from scrimmage in the 2 playoff games is just 12 yards. I just hope he has more positive big plays than negative big plays tonight. Or, really, just no big negative plays period.
2) Carter Davis. The Miami kicker missed 3 FGs at A&M before rebounding to hit a 47-yarder against Ohio St. If he misses one early, Cristobal might have some tough decisions re: the kicking game. And I don't want Cristobal to face any tough decisions.
3) Mario Cristobal. I think we're all just waiting for him to implode at some point. That said, I wasn't all that impressed with Pete Golding's decision making either.
4) This is strictly a hunch, but it feels like the Lane Kiffin distraction finally catches up to the Rebels tonight. You can only ride the "let's win to fuck our old coach" motivation for so long.
For tonight, I'm going to add:
Miami (-3) 4.7 to win 4
Miami TT Over (27.5) 3.6 to win 3
I mentioned previously that I like Miami and Indiana. Last week, not long after the lines came out, I bet these two parlays:
Miami (ML)/Indiana (ML) 4 to win 6.4
Miami (-3)/Indiana (-4) 4 to win 10.8
Not a hell of a lot I can add about these teams that I haven't already discussed.
This is the best defense Ole Miss has faced since October. Miami continues to be excellent against the run, allowing 2.8 yards/rush. They'll be geared up for Kewan Lacy, who has rushed for at least one TD in every game but one this season. The Hurricanes have picked off 4 passes in their 2 playoff games. They've also registered 12 sacks. They'll need to dial up the pressure to force Chambliss into some bad throws. He's only thrown 3 INTs all year. He's also only been sacked 13 times, but Marcel Reed had only been sacked 10 times all year before Miami got him 7 times.
This will be the worse defense Miami has faced in the playoffs, although Ole Miss is comparable to Texas A&M. In fact, both A&M and Ole Miss allow exactly 4.19 yards/rush. Fletcher, who has been running hard in both playoff games, racked up 172 (on 17 carries) against A&M. He could have another big game tonight. And what can you say about Carson Beck? Nothing flashy. Two workmanlike efforts in the playoffs. 2 TDs and 0 INTs. He just wins.
Four big X factors for me tonight.
1) Malachi Toney. Immensely talented kid, but he's just that. A kid. He's been an 18-year old boy playing against men. 3 fumbles in 2 games. So you know Ole Miss has been focused in practice on punching that ball out even more than usual. And, with all the hype around him, this surprised me... his biggest play from scrimmage in the 2 playoff games is just 12 yards. I just hope he has more positive big plays than negative big plays tonight. Or, really, just no big negative plays period.
2) Carter Davis. The Miami kicker missed 3 FGs at A&M before rebounding to hit a 47-yarder against Ohio St. If he misses one early, Cristobal might have some tough decisions re: the kicking game. And I don't want Cristobal to face any tough decisions.
3) Mario Cristobal. I think we're all just waiting for him to implode at some point. That said, I wasn't all that impressed with Pete Golding's decision making either.
4) This is strictly a hunch, but it feels like the Lane Kiffin distraction finally catches up to the Rebels tonight. You can only ride the "let's win to fuck our old coach" motivation for so long.
For tonight, I'm going to add:
Miami (-3) 4.7 to win 4
Miami TT Over (27.5) 3.6 to win 3
