NBC golf analyst Mark Rolfing is as good as any and better than most in describing and anticipating the action (the deal was sealed on my biggest golf wager of the year when he confirmed my thinking without hesitation or equivocation after 36 holes of The Players Championship with his opinion that Davis Love would be awfully tough to beat). His take:
(1) The rough is thick and wet, the course is playing long, and driving will be at a premium.
(2) The layout seems a perfect fit for Tom Watson, his mudder reputation being built as much as anything on a swing that sweeps the ball off the slop rather than digs after it.
(3) Clive: Gary Koch played a practice round with Craig Stadler on Monday and afterwards told Rolfing that Stadler's back is fine. Stadler tweaked it a couple of weeks ago on a long flight while returning from a hunting trip to Argentina, and he probably could have played last week, but his focus was on being ready for this week.
OUTRIGHTS:
Larry Nelson(22/1) for 0.70* e.w. @ 5 dimes
I find the seniors as volatile as any group of players when it comes to a quick yo-yo from sterling to clunker and back again, but I think Mr. Nelson's game is taking form for a 72 hole test in pursuit of a coveted title on a long and sloppy track.
Tom Watson(12/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Both Watson and Nicklaus have observed that playing to the middle of the greens leaves you with a lot of favorable uphill putts, reflecting the re-design influence of Robert Trent Jones from years ago (and it's consistent with Jay Sigel's advice to not miss greens on the short side). That tactic seems sound in strategy and execution, and I see favorable opportunities from both the well struck and the mishit shots that follow. For added flavor to start the week, caddie Bruce Edwards was feted to throwing out the first pitch at the Seattle vs. Philadelphia baseball game on Wednesday with a large contingent of his peers on hand.
Craig Stadler(16/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5 dimes
All the game and all the seasoning required to make his debut in a big way.
Jay Sigel(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5 dimes
He literally owns the place, although he claims he has not played the fully revamped course more than a few times.
Ed Dougherty(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Philadelphia proud, peaking nicely, and although I don't think of him as a mudder (the forecast is decent), at his best he is geared to grinding for an extra day over a demanding track.
MATCHUPS:
PARLAY: Watson(+140) over Irwin WITH Nelson(-112) over Morgan for 1* @ 5 dimes @ 3.54/1
GL
