Sep 28, Write Ups (not Mine) And Plays

KsYaS

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Jan 8, 2002
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Good luck to all, I'll be back later with my plays :D



Courtesy of Don Best Sports

Here?s a profitable NFL trend that is worth tracking for the rest of the season. This money maker requires a little homework but it?s proved to be well worth the time, cashing at over 68% since 1996.

Wager on teams that average more than 1.25 yard per rush more than their opponent when they are favorites of four points or less. This simple system has only failed in one season since 1989.

There is four teams that fit into this category in Week 4: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Jacksonville and Dallas.

Another profitable ploy that doesn?t crop up too often is to wager against any team from -3 to +3 playing a non-conference game after a division loss. This has cashed at a 27-8 clip (77.1%). That makes the Patriots worth a look against the Redskins. Washington came up short in a division battle with the Giants last week.

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON (-1 ?): A lot of trends and angles point to the Pats this week but that hasn?t stopped the public from jumping on Washington (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS). The Skins have floundered in 51 of their last 80 as favorites, including 16 of their last 22 at home in September. They have also failed in 14 of 18 at home after playing at home the week before and in 22 of 30 as a favorite off a loss. Washington has also come up short in five straight ATS the week after losing to the Giants. New England (2-1 SU& ATS) has its own share of negatives. The Pats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 outside the AFC-East, though they have ?covered? five of six versus NFC competition. New England will be looking to cash three straight for the first time since 2001. The Patriots have skipped ?under? in 12 of their last 16 on the highway when the number was between 42 ? and 49.


KANSAS CITY (-3) at BALTIMORE: The Chiefs have looked like the class of the AFC the first three weeks of the season while averaging nearly 37 points per game. It could be a different story against the stiff Baltimore (2-1 SU&ATS) defense. Kansas City (3-0 SU&ATS) has opened the season with four straight victories since 1996. The Chiefs have cashed 30 of their last 44 in September. The Ravens have ?covered? six of their last seven versus AFC- West competition and nine of 10 outside their division versus AFC rivals. Baltimore has also cashed eight straight against an opponent playing at least their second straight on the road. Kansas City has eclipsed the total in seven of its last nine, both overall and on the road. The Ravens, however, have trickled ?under? in 33 of 43 outside their division and 37 of 49 facing teams they meet only once a year. They have jumped the number in seven of eight at home when it was between 42 ? and 45.


PHILADELPHIA at BUFFALO (-3): The winless Eagles have had a week off to heal their wounds but their defense still won?t be at full strength. Philadelphia (0-2 SU&ATS) has lost three in a row since ?99, the last time it didn?t make the playoffs and it hasn?t failed to cash three in a row since way back in ?96. They have come away with the cash in 15 of their last 22 as road dogs and eight of nine on artificial turf. Philly has also cashed five of its last six off a bye. Buffalo (2-1 SU&ATS) has dipped ?under? in five of its last six at home versus the NFC-East. The Eagles have climbed ?over? in seven straight the week before facing the Redskins.

TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH (-3): The Steelers have held the aces in this AFC rivalry, getting the money in four of the last five and six of eight at home. Pittsburgh (2-1 SU&ATS) was only 2-7 at Heinz Field last season but cashed in its home opener against the Ravens and 12 of 18 from 2000-01. Tennessee (2-1 SU&ATS) has come up short in seven of its last eight ATS on the road in the first half of the season. They have ?covered? 27 of their last 37 as underdogs, however. Six of the last seven series encounters jumped ?over?, including the last four and nine of the last 10 in the Steel City. The Titans have jumped above the limit in 14 of 19 against teams they face once a year and in nine of their last 11 after three straight ?under? outings. Tennessee has knuckled ?under? in eight of its last nine on the road following a home win and seven straight as underdogs when the total was at least 45.

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (-5 ?): The Bengals have picked up where they left off last season, under rookie coach Marvin Lewis, losing three straight. Last year Cincinnati (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) stumbled out of the gate with seven straight setbacks and in 2000 they dropped six straight to being the season. Cleveland (1-2 SU&ATS) swept the season series with the Bengals last year and it has won and cashed three straight and three of four at home. Cincinnati has come up short in 11 of its last 14 ATS against teams with a losing record. They have also dropped 30 of 43 ATS in September and six of seven as road dogs of 3 ? to 7 points. The last four confrontations in Cleveland has dribbled ?under?. The Browns have gone below the number in seven of their last nine and the Bengals have followed suit in five straight, including all three tries in 2003. Cincinnati has jumped ?over? in seven of its last eight on the road when the number was between 35 ? and 42.
 

KsYaS

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SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA: The Vikings still aren?t sure whether quarterback Daunte Culpepper will be able to answer the bell against San Francisco (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) after exiting early last week. Minnesota (3-0 SU&ATS) looks to open with four straight wins for the fourth time in the last 10 years. The other three times they turned the trick they advanced to the post-season. The Vikings are only 2-9 ATS versus non-division NFC competition. They have also floundered in 11 of their last 16 as favorites and eight of 10 as home chalk of at least three points. The 49ers look to avoid only their second 1-3 start since 2000, when they missed the playoffs. San Francisco is 6-14-1 as a road dog. Minnesota has topped the total in five straight outside its division against the NFC. The 49ers have flown ?over? in 14 of their last 18 on artificial turf.


ATLANTA at CAROLINA (-6): This looks like a golden opportunity for the Panthers to get off the schneid against Atlanta (1-2 SU&ATS). Carolina (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has lost six straight against the Falcons and last season they were blanked in two games by a combined score of 71-0. Atlanta has won nine of the last 10 series mismatches, getting the cash at an 8-1-1 clip. The Falcons have also ?covered? eight of their last 10 on grass and 11 of 14 on the road against conference foes. Six of the last eight series battles in Carolina have dribbled ?under?. Atlanta has topped the number in 11 of its last 14 on the road when it was between 35 ? and 38 and Carolina has followed suit at home in 17 of 24 with the same numbers in play.


ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS (-10 ?): The Rams have been shaky home favorites, coming up short at a 7-16-1 clip when giving up more than seven and in eight of 10 as favorites of 7 ? to 14. St. Louis (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) swept the season series last year, cashing at Arizona (1-2 SU&ATS) but coming up short at home as 10 ?-point favorites, 30-28. The Cardinals have lost six straight on the road, coming up short ATS in six of their last nine. Three of the last four series scraps in St. Louis have tumbled ?under?. Arizona has stayed below the limit in 11 of its last 14 on the highway versus division rivals.


JACKSONVILLE (-3) at HOUSTON: The Jaguars seek to avoid their first 0-4 start since ?95, their initial season in the NFL. Jacksonville (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) split a pair with Houston last season, winning on the road, 24-21 as six- point favorites and bowing at home, 21-19. Houston (1-2 SU&ATS) has flopped in five of its last six at home against conference rivals. The Jaguars have dropped 10 of their last 13 ATS against teams with a losing record. They have also flinched in five of six as road favorites of seven or less. Jacksonville has jumped the number in 13 of 15 coming off a road defeat.


SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND (-6 ?): The Raiders have had a tough time at home versus San Diego (0-3 SU&ATS) splitting their last 10 decisions SU and blowing seven of 10 ATS. Oakland (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) has played down to its level of competition, failing to get the cash in 35 of 53 against teams with a losing record. The last time the Chargers lost three straight to open the season they finished 1-15 in 2000. The Raiders have tumbled ?under? at an 0-7-1 clip when the number was at least 45. They have eclipsed the total at an 11-0-1 pace the week after playing the Broncos and in 47 of 74 with six or less days rest. San Diego has ducked ?under? in 15 of 19 against a division rival with a non-division test up next.


DALLAS at JETS (-3): New York (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has buckled under in five of its last six at home versus the NFC-East. The Jets look to escape their first 0-4 start since 1996 when they finished the season, 1-15. They have failed in 15 of their last 19 ATS at home in September and in 23 of 31 at the Meadowlands off a road defeat. Dallas (1-1 SU&ATS) rested last week after upsetting the Giants in overtime. Coach Bill Parcells shoots for the second leg of the Triple Crown against his former employers. The ?Tuna? gets a crack at the Patriots on Nov. 16. The Cowboys used to struggle on artificial turf, dropping 10 straight ATS decisions, but they have managed to get the money in three of their last five on ersatz grass. Dallas has dipped ?under? at an 0-9-1 clip following its bye, including its last seven on the road. They have also snuck below the limit in 30 of 42 on artificial turf and 19 of 26 facing once-a-year opposition. The Jets have tumbled ?under? in nine of their last 10 as home chalk of at least three.


DETROIT at DENVER (-13): The last time Denver (3-0 SU&ATS) started the season with four straight wins they took home the Lombardi Trophy in 1998. That was also the last time the Broncos got the money four straight times. Denver has eaten NFC teams for lunch, getting the money in 16 of its last 21 but it is only 1-5 ATS at Mile High versus the NFC-North. Detroit (1-2 SU&ATS) has gagged in 18 of its last 23 ATS against AFC competition. The Lions have also been tamed in 12 of their last 16 on the road ATS and nine of 11 on grass. The Broncos have faltered in 17 of 19 as favorites off a win and in 11 of 12 off a SU&ATS victory. Detroit has jumped ?over? in 13 of 19 facing teams they meet once a year.


INDIANAPOLIS (-1 ?) at NEW ORLEANS: The Colts haven?t started the season 4-0 since 1996. Indianapolis (3-0 SU&ATS) has taken the week off against losing teams in the past, dropping 37 of 55 ATS. New Orleans (1-2 SU&ATS) has failed to exploit the home field advantage, failing to finish over .500 SU in the Big Easy for 10 straight years. The Saints have won and cashed three straight versus the Colts since ?95. Indianapolis has surrendered just 26 points in its first three games, helping all three starts slip ?under?. The Colts, however, have climbed ?over? in six of seven on the road when the number was between 42 ? and 45 and in seven of their last eight versus the NFC. New Orleans has followed suit in 15 of 17 versus an opponent on a three-game win binge and in 12 of 14 outside its division.





GOOD LUCK TO ALL!! Javier :D
 

KsYaS

Soy Puro Cabron
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2002
7,869
15
38
M?xico
Sunday 28 Picks are:


Washington Redskins -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Bengals/Browns UNDER 40.5

Saint Louis Rams -10.5

Baltimore Ravens +3

Dallas Cowboys +3

New Orleans Saints +2 (80% SYSTEM PLAY)

Opinion:

Patriots/Redskins OVER 43

Eagles/Bills UNDER 41

Steelers/Titans OVER 44

Carolina Panthers -6

Oakland Raiders -7


Good luck.
 
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