BASEBALL ANALYSIS
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Pittsburgh at Montreal (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th (San Juan, PR)
These teams split six games last year. The Pirates? pitching (2.74 team ERA last 13 games) has been impressive lately, so we?ll give them an edge against the worst home offense (3.2 RPG) in MLB. And with the Expos 9-17 (-$795) at home vs. righties, concentrate on any Pittsburgh rightie, with the exception of the dreaded Ryan Vogelsong (2-7, 7.13 ERA). PREFERRED: Pirates? righthanders.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Reds have had success against righthanders overall, but are below .500 (12-15) against them on the road, so we have no problem going against form and recommending Ben Sheets (3-2 lifetime vs. Cincy with a 2.97 ERA in 57.2 innings) who has a 2.17 ERA and a .201 BAA at home. BEST BET: Sheets.
Colorado at San Diego (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Padres, despite a so-so offense (averaging 3.5 RPG at home, the second lowest total behind Montreal in MLB), are still in the thick of things in the West. That?s because their pitching, which was 13th in the league in team ERA last season, is currently third in the NL. Even an offense as sluggish as the Padres is capable of banging around a pitching staff that, once again, has the worst ERA (5.98) in MLB. Add that number to an 8-24 (-$1070) record on the road vs. righties and it should add up to another long weekend for Colorado.
PREFERRED: Padres? righthanders.
Houston at Los Angeles (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
This is another first meeting of the year. In 2003, the Astros won four of six (+$250). The Houston offense looks fearsome on paper, but in reality hasn?t produced to its potential. In addition, Los Angeles is 19-10 (+$755) at home vs. righties and the only righthander on the Houston staff making any money is Roger Clemens (+$330). The rest of them are a combined -$945. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Astros? righthanders except Clemens.
Arizona at San Francisco (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
Considering the disparity in talent between these teams, it?s a minor miracle that the Diamondbacks have managed to win three of the first seven games, but be advised that those ?Ws? came much earlier in the year when the Giants were playing poorly. That?s no longer the case, but the Giants are likely to be too rich for our blood against the worst team in the NL. The only exception will be the game Big Unit pitches and given the Giants 13-2 (+$1100) record at home vs. portsiders, playing against him is too good an opportunity to pass up. BEST BET: Giants vs. Randy Johnson.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
While these teams have already played eight times (Rays are down 3-5, but are +$90) including a pair of contests in Japan to kickoff the 2004 campaign, none of those games were played when the Devil Rays were playing great baseball. So, here?s an opportunity to find out just how much Tampa Bay has improved. We say they?ll be competitive here against a team that?s so far ahead of the Red Sox that they might have trouble getting serious again until October. Grab Victor Zambrano (3-0 vs. the Yankees this year with a 3.63 ERA) as your top play. BEST BET: Zambrano. Devil Rays in all games.
Detroit at Minnesota (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
After beating the Tigers like a drum (15-4, +$780) a year ago, the Twins are barely holding off the improved Bengals (5-4, -$80). The Twins? most dependable hurler has been Carlos Silva (8-6 overall, 4-2 at home with a 3.79 ERA) so we?ll try him in the series finale.
PREFERRED: Silva.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 9
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
It?s not hard to see why the disappointing Phillies are just a handful of games over .500. Their team BA is .263 (eighth in the NL) and the team ERA is 12th (4.45). However, if the Phillies go with southpaws, statistics show that Atlanta is only 11-16 (-$635) against them averaging a full RPG less than vs. righties. Eric Milton (10-2) has excelled at home (5-0) and is already 2-0 vs. the Braves this year with a 1.29 ERA and a .160 BAA in 14 innings. BEST BET: Milton. PREFERRED: Braves vs. righthanders.
NY Mets at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Marlins are not playing well (lost 7 of 12) and are scheduled to start A.J. Burnett and Brad Penny who have a combined lifetime mark against the Mets of 1-13. We?ll go against both, especially if Tom Glavine (6-2 on the road with a 1.98 ERA and a .203 BAA) is in the box for one of those two games. PREFERRED: Mets vs. Burnett & Penny; Glavine.
Chicago at St. Louis (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Jeff Suppan has eaten up a ton of innings (92) for Tony La Russa, but not many of them have been good at home, where his record is 1-5 with a 5.16 ERA and a .322 BAA as opposed to a 5-0 record on the road with a 1.93 ERA and a .195 BAA on the road. Play against him with anyone. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Suppan.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Anaheim at Toronto (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Angels were broomed (0-3, -$335) in their last trip here in May as a mediocre Toronto staff held them to four RPG. This weekend could be more of the same even though Roy Halladay may not pitch because Ted Lilly is 4-1 lifetime vs. the Angels with a 1.97 ERA and Miguel Batista (3.73 ERA) has quietly cobbled together a fine year pitching to a 2.82 ERA at home where the Jays are 7-2 (+$515) in his starts at home. BEST BET: Lilly/Batista.
Texas at Boston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Here?s another team looking for big time revenge. The Red Sox were blitzed in Texas (0-3, -$465) and were outscored 16-8 in the process, but they?re a completely different team at home especially vs. righties (17-9, +$335 averaging 6.3 RPG). Unfortunately, Curt Schilling will be in the neighborhood of 2.5-1 and Kenny Rogers is pitching for Texas on Saturday which leaves us with a play on Tim Wakefield. PREFERRED: Wakefield.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
One more time! The Indians swept the Athletics (3-0, +$425) in the Jake at the end of May. Oakland has three lefties (Redman, Mulder and Zito) lined up for this series, a definite advantage as the Tribe is 18-9 (+$1075) at home vs. righthanders, but only 10-17 (-$805) vs. southpaws. Pay particular attention to Zito. He?s having an off year, but he?s 2-0 lifetime vs. Cleveland with a 0.76 ERA in 23.2 innings including eight innings of shutout ball this year. BEST BET: Zito. PREFERRED: Athletics? lefthanders.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
It?s already been an arduous year for a pair of teams that had high expectations in March. The Royals, by trading Carlos Beltran, have already thrown in the towel on the 2004 campaign and one wonders how long it will be until Mr. Angelos decides to move some of those high-priced offensive stars. The Orioles took three of four in Kansas City 10 days ago, limiting the Royals to 2.8 RPG. More of the same is expected in Camden Yards against a team that?s winning 27.8% of its road games. PREFERRED: Orioles in all games.
Seattle at Chicago White Sox (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The White Sox have a slew of capable righties, including ex-Mariner Freddy Garcia, to throw against a team that is 9-20 (-$785) on the road against righthanders and 19-38 (-$1625) against them overall. PREFERRED: White Sox? righthanders at -$175 or less.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Pittsburgh at Montreal (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th (San Juan, PR)
These teams split six games last year. The Pirates? pitching (2.74 team ERA last 13 games) has been impressive lately, so we?ll give them an edge against the worst home offense (3.2 RPG) in MLB. And with the Expos 9-17 (-$795) at home vs. righties, concentrate on any Pittsburgh rightie, with the exception of the dreaded Ryan Vogelsong (2-7, 7.13 ERA). PREFERRED: Pirates? righthanders.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Reds have had success against righthanders overall, but are below .500 (12-15) against them on the road, so we have no problem going against form and recommending Ben Sheets (3-2 lifetime vs. Cincy with a 2.97 ERA in 57.2 innings) who has a 2.17 ERA and a .201 BAA at home. BEST BET: Sheets.
Colorado at San Diego (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Padres, despite a so-so offense (averaging 3.5 RPG at home, the second lowest total behind Montreal in MLB), are still in the thick of things in the West. That?s because their pitching, which was 13th in the league in team ERA last season, is currently third in the NL. Even an offense as sluggish as the Padres is capable of banging around a pitching staff that, once again, has the worst ERA (5.98) in MLB. Add that number to an 8-24 (-$1070) record on the road vs. righties and it should add up to another long weekend for Colorado.
PREFERRED: Padres? righthanders.
Houston at Los Angeles (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
This is another first meeting of the year. In 2003, the Astros won four of six (+$250). The Houston offense looks fearsome on paper, but in reality hasn?t produced to its potential. In addition, Los Angeles is 19-10 (+$755) at home vs. righties and the only righthander on the Houston staff making any money is Roger Clemens (+$330). The rest of them are a combined -$945. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Astros? righthanders except Clemens.
Arizona at San Francisco (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
Considering the disparity in talent between these teams, it?s a minor miracle that the Diamondbacks have managed to win three of the first seven games, but be advised that those ?Ws? came much earlier in the year when the Giants were playing poorly. That?s no longer the case, but the Giants are likely to be too rich for our blood against the worst team in the NL. The only exception will be the game Big Unit pitches and given the Giants 13-2 (+$1100) record at home vs. portsiders, playing against him is too good an opportunity to pass up. BEST BET: Giants vs. Randy Johnson.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
While these teams have already played eight times (Rays are down 3-5, but are +$90) including a pair of contests in Japan to kickoff the 2004 campaign, none of those games were played when the Devil Rays were playing great baseball. So, here?s an opportunity to find out just how much Tampa Bay has improved. We say they?ll be competitive here against a team that?s so far ahead of the Red Sox that they might have trouble getting serious again until October. Grab Victor Zambrano (3-0 vs. the Yankees this year with a 3.63 ERA) as your top play. BEST BET: Zambrano. Devil Rays in all games.
Detroit at Minnesota (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
After beating the Tigers like a drum (15-4, +$780) a year ago, the Twins are barely holding off the improved Bengals (5-4, -$80). The Twins? most dependable hurler has been Carlos Silva (8-6 overall, 4-2 at home with a 3.79 ERA) so we?ll try him in the series finale.
PREFERRED: Silva.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 9
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
It?s not hard to see why the disappointing Phillies are just a handful of games over .500. Their team BA is .263 (eighth in the NL) and the team ERA is 12th (4.45). However, if the Phillies go with southpaws, statistics show that Atlanta is only 11-16 (-$635) against them averaging a full RPG less than vs. righties. Eric Milton (10-2) has excelled at home (5-0) and is already 2-0 vs. the Braves this year with a 1.29 ERA and a .160 BAA in 14 innings. BEST BET: Milton. PREFERRED: Braves vs. righthanders.
NY Mets at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Marlins are not playing well (lost 7 of 12) and are scheduled to start A.J. Burnett and Brad Penny who have a combined lifetime mark against the Mets of 1-13. We?ll go against both, especially if Tom Glavine (6-2 on the road with a 1.98 ERA and a .203 BAA) is in the box for one of those two games. PREFERRED: Mets vs. Burnett & Penny; Glavine.
Chicago at St. Louis (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Jeff Suppan has eaten up a ton of innings (92) for Tony La Russa, but not many of them have been good at home, where his record is 1-5 with a 5.16 ERA and a .322 BAA as opposed to a 5-0 record on the road with a 1.93 ERA and a .195 BAA on the road. Play against him with anyone. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Suppan.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Anaheim at Toronto (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Angels were broomed (0-3, -$335) in their last trip here in May as a mediocre Toronto staff held them to four RPG. This weekend could be more of the same even though Roy Halladay may not pitch because Ted Lilly is 4-1 lifetime vs. the Angels with a 1.97 ERA and Miguel Batista (3.73 ERA) has quietly cobbled together a fine year pitching to a 2.82 ERA at home where the Jays are 7-2 (+$515) in his starts at home. BEST BET: Lilly/Batista.
Texas at Boston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Here?s another team looking for big time revenge. The Red Sox were blitzed in Texas (0-3, -$465) and were outscored 16-8 in the process, but they?re a completely different team at home especially vs. righties (17-9, +$335 averaging 6.3 RPG). Unfortunately, Curt Schilling will be in the neighborhood of 2.5-1 and Kenny Rogers is pitching for Texas on Saturday which leaves us with a play on Tim Wakefield. PREFERRED: Wakefield.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
One more time! The Indians swept the Athletics (3-0, +$425) in the Jake at the end of May. Oakland has three lefties (Redman, Mulder and Zito) lined up for this series, a definite advantage as the Tribe is 18-9 (+$1075) at home vs. righthanders, but only 10-17 (-$805) vs. southpaws. Pay particular attention to Zito. He?s having an off year, but he?s 2-0 lifetime vs. Cleveland with a 0.76 ERA in 23.2 innings including eight innings of shutout ball this year. BEST BET: Zito. PREFERRED: Athletics? lefthanders.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
It?s already been an arduous year for a pair of teams that had high expectations in March. The Royals, by trading Carlos Beltran, have already thrown in the towel on the 2004 campaign and one wonders how long it will be until Mr. Angelos decides to move some of those high-priced offensive stars. The Orioles took three of four in Kansas City 10 days ago, limiting the Royals to 2.8 RPG. More of the same is expected in Camden Yards against a team that?s winning 27.8% of its road games. PREFERRED: Orioles in all games.
Seattle at Chicago White Sox (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The White Sox have a slew of capable righties, including ex-Mariner Freddy Garcia, to throw against a team that is 9-20 (-$785) on the road against righthanders and 19-38 (-$1625) against them overall. PREFERRED: White Sox? righthanders at -$175 or less.
