BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 14
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Pirates are off to a disastrous start after losing their first six games, and now they go up against a Chicago team that manhandled them in 2005 (only 5-1, -$375 vs. the Cubs). Chicago made money on the road last year vs. lefthanders (+$610), averaging 5.4 runs per game in those contests, so they match up well vs. a Pittsburgh rotation loaded with southpaws. And Carlos Zambrano (3.26 ERA in 33 starts last year) bounced back from a shaky first start with a solid showing vs. the Cardinals on Saturday. Prices on the visitor should still be reasonable. BEST BET: C. Zambrano/Cubs vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Mets return home for their second homestand of the season, and the early signs for their fans are encouraging. The starting staff performed well and the offense generated 30 runs in their first five games (+$295). No one expected such a good start by the Brewers (5-1, +$400), so caution is advised. We will note the fact that NY posted a 34-17 (+$1180) mark in night games at Shea Stadium last year, while Milwaukee could do no better than 24-31 (-$460) on the road at night. So we?ll hold off on the afternoon contests and stick with the home team in the series opener. BEST BET: Mets in night games.
San Diego at Atlanta (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Braves saw longtime pitching coach Leo Mazzone depart for Baltimore over the winter, and the opening week performance of the Atlanta staff is already setting off alarm bells. Their starters have been getting hammered (7.76 ERA so far, worst in the league), so it?s going to be hard to back them here at Turner Field, where prices will be somewhat inflated. But the Padres have looked dismal, with only 15 runs scored in their first four games (fewest in the majors), and all their starters except Jake Peavy floundering in their initial outings. We?ll sit this one out for now. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Florida (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Nationals were one of the most profitable road team in the majors last year (+$1315) and they held up quite well in their first to away series this year. They beat Roy Oswalt at a big price and could have taken 2 out of 3 in New York, if not for some terrible umpiring. Now they step down in class to take on a depleted Florida team that has only scored four runs total in the two games in which they took on lefthanded starters. With so many righties in the rotation, the visitor should take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Reds didn?t have much success against the division winning Cardinals in 2005 (only 5-11, -$370) but they might be able to break through as a high priced underdog in this series. They?ve jumped out of the gate to a quick 4-2 start and in road day games last year they averaged an impressive 5.2 runs per game. St. Louis only went 1-5 in day games at home vs. lefthanders last season (-$710), so we?re willing to take an underdog price and see if that pattern continues in the new Busch Stadium. Cincinnati?s staff is loaded with lefties so we should get at least one opportunity. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals in day games.
Philadelphia at Colorado (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
Don?t know exactly what to make of the hapless Phillies, who are averaging a measly 3.4 runs per game in the early going while watching their uninspiring starting rotation get bruised and battered. The Rockies won?t get to take on any lefthanded starters this weekend, a situation in which they excelled last year at Coors Field. But they have gotten some decent pitching performances this first week, most notably Jason Jennings (+$255). The righthander is slated to make his next start this weekend and should be able to shut down Philadelphia?s anemic attack. BEST BET: Jennings.
Houston at Arizona (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Astros have avoided the slow starts that have plagued them the past two seasons. If they can put together a decent month of April, and end up getting Roger Clemens to rejoin the club in May, they will be well poised to return to the post-season for the third straight year. The D?backs were big money-burners at home in 2005 (-$1665) and their all-righty rotation appears tailor made for this Houston team (Astros +$985 vs. righthanders last year). The matchups favor the visitors, who should take at least 2 of 3. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The revamped Dodger lineup is already hobbled, with Nomar Garciaparra taking up his familiar residence on the DL. Rafael Furcal is hurting, Kenny Lofton is out, and Eric Gagne remains sidelined with elbow woes. It wasn?t supposed to be that way, and LA?s difficulties do open the door for the Giants to return to the top of the weak NL West. The good news is that all these games are at night, a situation in which they excelled last year (+$1120 on the road at night). The Dodgers meanwhile, lost a bundle in night games at Chavez Ravine (-$1205) so we?ll use San Francisco at what we feel is an appropriate price. BEST BET: Giants at +115 or better.
L.A. Angels at Baltimore (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Angels took 4 of 6 from the O?s last year (+$125) and are no doubt brimming with confidence after taking 2 out of 3 from the Yankees last weekend. Despite dropping 2out of 3 at Safeco Field to open the season, this is a team that plays well on the road (+$1225) and comes from one of baseball?s toughest divisions. The Orioles were lackluster in six games at Camden Yards last week after a dismal 2005 home campaign (-$1895). But we think their rotation has great potential, so well limit ourselves to a play on Ervin Santana, coming off a stellar outing at Anaheim to start the year. BEST BET: E. Santana.
Seattle at Boston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Red Sox come into Fenway Park after a very successful opening week at Texas & Baltimore (5-1, +$400). As always, their home numbers were spectacular in 2005 (+$1165 with 6.0 runs per game). The Mariners were horrible as visitors (30-51, -$1245) so they?ll be lucky to salvage a single win here. But their pitching rotation includes some wily veterans alongside promising newcomers, so we?re concerned about laying big prices on the home favorite. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Detroit (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Tigers came roaring out of the gate with five straight wins (5-1, +$420) and are no doubt anxious to even the score with a Cleveland team that manhandled them in 2005 (only 6-12, -$560 vs. the Tribe). But the Indians are just as hot (5-1, +$465), they were huge moneymakers on the road vs. righties last year (+$2515), and Detroit was a sorrowful 50-70 (-$2085) vs. righthanders. Lots of lefties in these rotations, so opportunities may be limited, but if we get our matchup we?ll jump in. BEST BET: Indians when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
We?ll not elaborate too much on this matchup. These teams possess the two worst pitching staffs in the AL, and both appear poised for 100 loss seasons. But Tampa Bay had a nice profit at Tropicana Field last year (+$690) and they?ve got a pair of lefties who are slated to pitch this weekend, who can shut down a KC team that went 17-38 (-$1010) vs. southpaws last year. BEST BET: Kazmir/Hendrickson.
N.Y. Yankees at Minnesota (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Yankees better hope this five game road trip works out better than their season starting west coast swing (2-4, -$295). They will have played 11 of their first 14 away from the Bronx and could find themselves in a deep hole against the surging Red Sox. Their road number last year were a disaster (-$1625) so grab the short price on Johan Santana, as he looks to get on track after coming up short in his first two starts. BEST BET: J. Santana.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The White Sox are suffering from an acute case of post-championship
malaise. They barely escaped getting swept by the hapless Royals, their pitching has been sub-par, now they are up against an improved Toronto team that racked up a +$945 in winnings against lefthanders outside of Skydome last year. The Blue Jays averaged 5.7 runs per game in their first six outings of the new season. We?ll take a short at a decent underdog price vs. Mark Buehrle, perhaps with ace Roy Halladay on the hill. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Buehrle.
Texas at Oakland (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The A?s are off and running, bouncing back from an opening night mauling by the Yankees with four straight wins (+$320 overall). Texas has not fared as well in the early going, but their lineup is formidable, and their righthanders might give the Athletics some trouble. Our best hope is for another strong outing by Barry Zito, who looked very sharp in shutting down the Mariners and is expected to open this series at McAfee (Texas -$1295 vs. lefties in ?05). BEST BET: Zito.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Pirates are off to a disastrous start after losing their first six games, and now they go up against a Chicago team that manhandled them in 2005 (only 5-1, -$375 vs. the Cubs). Chicago made money on the road last year vs. lefthanders (+$610), averaging 5.4 runs per game in those contests, so they match up well vs. a Pittsburgh rotation loaded with southpaws. And Carlos Zambrano (3.26 ERA in 33 starts last year) bounced back from a shaky first start with a solid showing vs. the Cardinals on Saturday. Prices on the visitor should still be reasonable. BEST BET: C. Zambrano/Cubs vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Mets return home for their second homestand of the season, and the early signs for their fans are encouraging. The starting staff performed well and the offense generated 30 runs in their first five games (+$295). No one expected such a good start by the Brewers (5-1, +$400), so caution is advised. We will note the fact that NY posted a 34-17 (+$1180) mark in night games at Shea Stadium last year, while Milwaukee could do no better than 24-31 (-$460) on the road at night. So we?ll hold off on the afternoon contests and stick with the home team in the series opener. BEST BET: Mets in night games.
San Diego at Atlanta (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Braves saw longtime pitching coach Leo Mazzone depart for Baltimore over the winter, and the opening week performance of the Atlanta staff is already setting off alarm bells. Their starters have been getting hammered (7.76 ERA so far, worst in the league), so it?s going to be hard to back them here at Turner Field, where prices will be somewhat inflated. But the Padres have looked dismal, with only 15 runs scored in their first four games (fewest in the majors), and all their starters except Jake Peavy floundering in their initial outings. We?ll sit this one out for now. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Florida (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Nationals were one of the most profitable road team in the majors last year (+$1315) and they held up quite well in their first to away series this year. They beat Roy Oswalt at a big price and could have taken 2 out of 3 in New York, if not for some terrible umpiring. Now they step down in class to take on a depleted Florida team that has only scored four runs total in the two games in which they took on lefthanded starters. With so many righties in the rotation, the visitor should take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Reds didn?t have much success against the division winning Cardinals in 2005 (only 5-11, -$370) but they might be able to break through as a high priced underdog in this series. They?ve jumped out of the gate to a quick 4-2 start and in road day games last year they averaged an impressive 5.2 runs per game. St. Louis only went 1-5 in day games at home vs. lefthanders last season (-$710), so we?re willing to take an underdog price and see if that pattern continues in the new Busch Stadium. Cincinnati?s staff is loaded with lefties so we should get at least one opportunity. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals in day games.
Philadelphia at Colorado (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
Don?t know exactly what to make of the hapless Phillies, who are averaging a measly 3.4 runs per game in the early going while watching their uninspiring starting rotation get bruised and battered. The Rockies won?t get to take on any lefthanded starters this weekend, a situation in which they excelled last year at Coors Field. But they have gotten some decent pitching performances this first week, most notably Jason Jennings (+$255). The righthander is slated to make his next start this weekend and should be able to shut down Philadelphia?s anemic attack. BEST BET: Jennings.
Houston at Arizona (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Astros have avoided the slow starts that have plagued them the past two seasons. If they can put together a decent month of April, and end up getting Roger Clemens to rejoin the club in May, they will be well poised to return to the post-season for the third straight year. The D?backs were big money-burners at home in 2005 (-$1665) and their all-righty rotation appears tailor made for this Houston team (Astros +$985 vs. righthanders last year). The matchups favor the visitors, who should take at least 2 of 3. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The revamped Dodger lineup is already hobbled, with Nomar Garciaparra taking up his familiar residence on the DL. Rafael Furcal is hurting, Kenny Lofton is out, and Eric Gagne remains sidelined with elbow woes. It wasn?t supposed to be that way, and LA?s difficulties do open the door for the Giants to return to the top of the weak NL West. The good news is that all these games are at night, a situation in which they excelled last year (+$1120 on the road at night). The Dodgers meanwhile, lost a bundle in night games at Chavez Ravine (-$1205) so we?ll use San Francisco at what we feel is an appropriate price. BEST BET: Giants at +115 or better.
L.A. Angels at Baltimore (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Angels took 4 of 6 from the O?s last year (+$125) and are no doubt brimming with confidence after taking 2 out of 3 from the Yankees last weekend. Despite dropping 2out of 3 at Safeco Field to open the season, this is a team that plays well on the road (+$1225) and comes from one of baseball?s toughest divisions. The Orioles were lackluster in six games at Camden Yards last week after a dismal 2005 home campaign (-$1895). But we think their rotation has great potential, so well limit ourselves to a play on Ervin Santana, coming off a stellar outing at Anaheim to start the year. BEST BET: E. Santana.
Seattle at Boston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Red Sox come into Fenway Park after a very successful opening week at Texas & Baltimore (5-1, +$400). As always, their home numbers were spectacular in 2005 (+$1165 with 6.0 runs per game). The Mariners were horrible as visitors (30-51, -$1245) so they?ll be lucky to salvage a single win here. But their pitching rotation includes some wily veterans alongside promising newcomers, so we?re concerned about laying big prices on the home favorite. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Detroit (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Tigers came roaring out of the gate with five straight wins (5-1, +$420) and are no doubt anxious to even the score with a Cleveland team that manhandled them in 2005 (only 6-12, -$560 vs. the Tribe). But the Indians are just as hot (5-1, +$465), they were huge moneymakers on the road vs. righties last year (+$2515), and Detroit was a sorrowful 50-70 (-$2085) vs. righthanders. Lots of lefties in these rotations, so opportunities may be limited, but if we get our matchup we?ll jump in. BEST BET: Indians when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
We?ll not elaborate too much on this matchup. These teams possess the two worst pitching staffs in the AL, and both appear poised for 100 loss seasons. But Tampa Bay had a nice profit at Tropicana Field last year (+$690) and they?ve got a pair of lefties who are slated to pitch this weekend, who can shut down a KC team that went 17-38 (-$1010) vs. southpaws last year. BEST BET: Kazmir/Hendrickson.
N.Y. Yankees at Minnesota (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Yankees better hope this five game road trip works out better than their season starting west coast swing (2-4, -$295). They will have played 11 of their first 14 away from the Bronx and could find themselves in a deep hole against the surging Red Sox. Their road number last year were a disaster (-$1625) so grab the short price on Johan Santana, as he looks to get on track after coming up short in his first two starts. BEST BET: J. Santana.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The White Sox are suffering from an acute case of post-championship
malaise. They barely escaped getting swept by the hapless Royals, their pitching has been sub-par, now they are up against an improved Toronto team that racked up a +$945 in winnings against lefthanders outside of Skydome last year. The Blue Jays averaged 5.7 runs per game in their first six outings of the new season. We?ll take a short at a decent underdog price vs. Mark Buehrle, perhaps with ace Roy Halladay on the hill. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Buehrle.
Texas at Oakland (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The A?s are off and running, bouncing back from an opening night mauling by the Yankees with four straight wins (+$320 overall). Texas has not fared as well in the early going, but their lineup is formidable, and their righthanders might give the Athletics some trouble. Our best hope is for another strong outing by Barry Zito, who looked very sharp in shutting down the Mariners and is expected to open this series at McAfee (Texas -$1295 vs. lefties in ?05). BEST BET: Zito.
