BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 5
Pittsburgh at Washington (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Nationals haven?t gotten off to a very good start, but the Pirates look like the worst team in the league right now (5.32 team ERA, only 4.0 runs per game). They only beat Washington once last year (-$425) and are only 1-12 (-$1075) on the road thus far. Obviously we would like to use the home team, but they?ve only won one game at RFK, and Tony Armas, their best pitcher, is no expected to see action. We?ll have to back off in this one. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies are another team with a starting rotation in disarray (5.21 ERA, 2nd worst in the NL) and their only productive hurler (Myers, 3.23 ERA) is not slated to appear this weekend. The Giants have been getting runs off righthanders (5.2 per game) and have overcome numerous injuries to end the month of April with a winning record. So if the price is right, the team looks like a bargain here at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies have stumbled to a 5-10 (-$880) start. BEST BET: Giants as underdogs.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Mets are opening up a fat lead in the NL East, finishing the month of April a full six games ahead of their chief division rivals (16-8, +$640). Their team ERA is lowest in the majors (3.06) and they are averaging 5.0 runs per game. But the Braves have a knack for knocking off the Mets (13-6, +$715 in 2005), taking 2 out of 3 in an earlier trip to Shea Stadium. New York evened the score at Turner Field last weekend, but they won?t have Martinez & Glavine on the hill this weekend and rookie Brian Bannister is on the DL. So take a shot with a trio of Atlanta arms, all of whom have shown improvement in recent outings BEST BET: Hudson/Sosa/Davies.
St. Louis at Florida (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Things certainly look bleak in Florida right now, with the Marlins sporting a 6-16 record. But it might nor be as bad as it looks. They?ve got a pair of quality lefthanders who are off to solid starts (Willis 3.13 ERA, Olsen 2.12), both of whom are slated to see action in this series. The Cardinals are playing well, but their offense is only average at best right now (.259 team BA) so we?ll look to get some value with the home team when their two southpaws are on the mound. BEST BET: Willis/Olsen.
Houston at Colorado (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Love to see a team like the Rockies end the first month of the season atop the NL West (15-10, +$725). They?ve got the highest team BA in the NL right now (.292) and this is a chance to get some revenge from a Houston team that beat them in 5 out of 6 head to head contests last year. Aaron Cook has looked very sharp in his first five outings (3.44 ERA) and may even go off as an underdog vs. the defending NL pennant winners. Take him. BEST BET: Cook.
Cincinnati at Arizona (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Remarkable start by the lightly regarded Reds (17-8, +$1145) who have bludgeoned their way to the top of the NL Central by scoring almost 5.9 runs per game, the most by any team in the NL. The Diamondbacks are having a tough time in their own backyard (-$315 in home games) and lost 4 of 6 (-$290) to a weaker Cincinnati team last season. Bronson Arroyo (+$350, 2.34 ERA) looks like a best bargain, regardless of the price. BEST BET: Arroyo.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs are beginning to get slapped around as they attempt to navigate these months despite the absence of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Zambrano is winless, Rusch (8.47) & Williams (9.82) have been a disaster. Greg Maddux is the only positive, and he will miss this series. But with a 4-11 (-$1080) record at Petco Park, we?re steering clear of the hapless Padres for now. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at L.A. Dodgers (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Brewers ended April with a respectable 14-11 record, but that?s only good enough for 6th place in a very competitive NL Central division. There starting pitching has looked sharp in recent outings, but don?t use their lefthanders against LA, a team that has averaged 7.0 runs per game vs. southpaws. We?ll stick with Ben Sheets (2.77 ERA last two starts) and Tomokazu Ohka (3.72 overall), no doubt as underdogs vs. a Dodger team that averages just 4.0 runs per game against righthanders. BEST BET: Sheets/Ohka.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Red Sox spanked the O?s in a three game sweep at Camden Yards (+$300) and it?s always tough to take on Boston here at Fenway Park. But they have been dreadful vs. lefties once again (only 4-6, -$500 with 3.2 runs per game, -$355in ?05) so we?ll take a shot with Eric Bedard (+$295, 3.70 ERA) as a high priced underdog. On the other hand, the Sox are murder on righthanders (+$370 so far, +$695 last year) so play this series accordingly regardless of price. BEST BET: Bedard/Red Sox vs. righthanders.
L.A. Angels at Toronto (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Jays were expected to score lots of runs and they certainly have not disappointed (averaging 5.9 runs per game). But the pitching is a problem (5.32 ERA) and the loss of A.J. Burnett could be a devastating blow, considering the sizeable amount invested in the sore armed righthander. The best approach is to stick with lefthanders against the Angels (LA averaging only 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws) and we like the duo of Ted Lilly (+$245) and Gustavo Chacin (+$375) both of whom will be on the hill. BEST BET: Lilly/Chacin.
N.Y. Yankees at Texas (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Rangers didn?t have much luck vs.. New York last season (only 3-7, -$240) but the Yankees are a pitiful 1-7 (-$830) in night games on the road and they are facing a pair of evening affairs at Arlington this weekend. But the are a perfect 10-0 (+$1000) in day games so far, and we expect to see a very hot Shawn Chacon (+$180 overall, 1.35 ERA last two starts) on the hill this Sunday. If it plays out that way we?ll be all over the Yankee righthander. BEST BET: Chacon.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Tigers are on a roll, walloping these Twins at Comerica Park by a count of 33-1 in a three game set. We?ve predicted the ultimate demise of Detroit, but their offensive stats tell a very different story (.287 team BA) and their pitching has been extraordinary (3.35 ERA, best in the AL). The Twins team ERA is a last place 6.26, a huge disparity, so they?ll have a tough time slowing down a visitor with an 11-4 (+$810) road record. Minnesota will be lucky to salvage a single victory here at the Metrodome. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Royals are still looking to pick up that first road win of the year (0-9, -$900 so far), and Cellular Field vs. the World Champions is indeed a daunting challenge. The White Sox are tearing up righthanded pitching (13-2, +1020) but it?s asking a lot of lay the kind of prices we expect to see in this series. Inevitably the Royals will post a few road victories, and anything less than a sweep by Chicago will put their backers in the red. Pass. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The A?s are off to another of their familiar slow starts (.227 team BA, lowest in the AL) and with Rich Harden currently sidelined we?re tempted to try our luck on the visitors. Tampa Bay has serious pitching problems, and their bullpen (5.54) makes every late game situation an adventure. But we love what we?ve seen of Scott Kazmir (+$430, 3.73 ERA), who?s both won a big game at Fenway and dealt Curt Schilling his first loss of the new season. The A?s have averaged only 3.0 runs per game vs. lefties in limited tries, so grab the price on the steadily improving Tampa Bay southpaw. BEST BET: Kazmir.
Cleveland at Seattle (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Indians are another run scoring juggernaut (.303 team BA, with 154 total runs scored, highest in the majors in both) but their pitching is a disaster right now (5.42 ERA). Cliff Lee (+$305, 2.97 ERA) look good, as has Jason Johnson (3.41), but the absence of C.C. Sabathia and the departure of Kevin Millwood has left a void. So go with Lee when he takes the hill (Seattle 2-6, -$470 vs. lefties with only 3.6 runs per game) but use the home team vs. the beleaguered Cleveland staff. BEST BET: Lee/Mariners vs. righthanders.
Pittsburgh at Washington (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Nationals haven?t gotten off to a very good start, but the Pirates look like the worst team in the league right now (5.32 team ERA, only 4.0 runs per game). They only beat Washington once last year (-$425) and are only 1-12 (-$1075) on the road thus far. Obviously we would like to use the home team, but they?ve only won one game at RFK, and Tony Armas, their best pitcher, is no expected to see action. We?ll have to back off in this one. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies are another team with a starting rotation in disarray (5.21 ERA, 2nd worst in the NL) and their only productive hurler (Myers, 3.23 ERA) is not slated to appear this weekend. The Giants have been getting runs off righthanders (5.2 per game) and have overcome numerous injuries to end the month of April with a winning record. So if the price is right, the team looks like a bargain here at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies have stumbled to a 5-10 (-$880) start. BEST BET: Giants as underdogs.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Mets are opening up a fat lead in the NL East, finishing the month of April a full six games ahead of their chief division rivals (16-8, +$640). Their team ERA is lowest in the majors (3.06) and they are averaging 5.0 runs per game. But the Braves have a knack for knocking off the Mets (13-6, +$715 in 2005), taking 2 out of 3 in an earlier trip to Shea Stadium. New York evened the score at Turner Field last weekend, but they won?t have Martinez & Glavine on the hill this weekend and rookie Brian Bannister is on the DL. So take a shot with a trio of Atlanta arms, all of whom have shown improvement in recent outings BEST BET: Hudson/Sosa/Davies.
St. Louis at Florida (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Things certainly look bleak in Florida right now, with the Marlins sporting a 6-16 record. But it might nor be as bad as it looks. They?ve got a pair of quality lefthanders who are off to solid starts (Willis 3.13 ERA, Olsen 2.12), both of whom are slated to see action in this series. The Cardinals are playing well, but their offense is only average at best right now (.259 team BA) so we?ll look to get some value with the home team when their two southpaws are on the mound. BEST BET: Willis/Olsen.
Houston at Colorado (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Love to see a team like the Rockies end the first month of the season atop the NL West (15-10, +$725). They?ve got the highest team BA in the NL right now (.292) and this is a chance to get some revenge from a Houston team that beat them in 5 out of 6 head to head contests last year. Aaron Cook has looked very sharp in his first five outings (3.44 ERA) and may even go off as an underdog vs. the defending NL pennant winners. Take him. BEST BET: Cook.
Cincinnati at Arizona (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Remarkable start by the lightly regarded Reds (17-8, +$1145) who have bludgeoned their way to the top of the NL Central by scoring almost 5.9 runs per game, the most by any team in the NL. The Diamondbacks are having a tough time in their own backyard (-$315 in home games) and lost 4 of 6 (-$290) to a weaker Cincinnati team last season. Bronson Arroyo (+$350, 2.34 ERA) looks like a best bargain, regardless of the price. BEST BET: Arroyo.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs are beginning to get slapped around as they attempt to navigate these months despite the absence of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Zambrano is winless, Rusch (8.47) & Williams (9.82) have been a disaster. Greg Maddux is the only positive, and he will miss this series. But with a 4-11 (-$1080) record at Petco Park, we?re steering clear of the hapless Padres for now. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at L.A. Dodgers (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Brewers ended April with a respectable 14-11 record, but that?s only good enough for 6th place in a very competitive NL Central division. There starting pitching has looked sharp in recent outings, but don?t use their lefthanders against LA, a team that has averaged 7.0 runs per game vs. southpaws. We?ll stick with Ben Sheets (2.77 ERA last two starts) and Tomokazu Ohka (3.72 overall), no doubt as underdogs vs. a Dodger team that averages just 4.0 runs per game against righthanders. BEST BET: Sheets/Ohka.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Red Sox spanked the O?s in a three game sweep at Camden Yards (+$300) and it?s always tough to take on Boston here at Fenway Park. But they have been dreadful vs. lefties once again (only 4-6, -$500 with 3.2 runs per game, -$355in ?05) so we?ll take a shot with Eric Bedard (+$295, 3.70 ERA) as a high priced underdog. On the other hand, the Sox are murder on righthanders (+$370 so far, +$695 last year) so play this series accordingly regardless of price. BEST BET: Bedard/Red Sox vs. righthanders.
L.A. Angels at Toronto (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Jays were expected to score lots of runs and they certainly have not disappointed (averaging 5.9 runs per game). But the pitching is a problem (5.32 ERA) and the loss of A.J. Burnett could be a devastating blow, considering the sizeable amount invested in the sore armed righthander. The best approach is to stick with lefthanders against the Angels (LA averaging only 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws) and we like the duo of Ted Lilly (+$245) and Gustavo Chacin (+$375) both of whom will be on the hill. BEST BET: Lilly/Chacin.
N.Y. Yankees at Texas (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Rangers didn?t have much luck vs.. New York last season (only 3-7, -$240) but the Yankees are a pitiful 1-7 (-$830) in night games on the road and they are facing a pair of evening affairs at Arlington this weekend. But the are a perfect 10-0 (+$1000) in day games so far, and we expect to see a very hot Shawn Chacon (+$180 overall, 1.35 ERA last two starts) on the hill this Sunday. If it plays out that way we?ll be all over the Yankee righthander. BEST BET: Chacon.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Tigers are on a roll, walloping these Twins at Comerica Park by a count of 33-1 in a three game set. We?ve predicted the ultimate demise of Detroit, but their offensive stats tell a very different story (.287 team BA) and their pitching has been extraordinary (3.35 ERA, best in the AL). The Twins team ERA is a last place 6.26, a huge disparity, so they?ll have a tough time slowing down a visitor with an 11-4 (+$810) road record. Minnesota will be lucky to salvage a single victory here at the Metrodome. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Royals are still looking to pick up that first road win of the year (0-9, -$900 so far), and Cellular Field vs. the World Champions is indeed a daunting challenge. The White Sox are tearing up righthanded pitching (13-2, +1020) but it?s asking a lot of lay the kind of prices we expect to see in this series. Inevitably the Royals will post a few road victories, and anything less than a sweep by Chicago will put their backers in the red. Pass. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The A?s are off to another of their familiar slow starts (.227 team BA, lowest in the AL) and with Rich Harden currently sidelined we?re tempted to try our luck on the visitors. Tampa Bay has serious pitching problems, and their bullpen (5.54) makes every late game situation an adventure. But we love what we?ve seen of Scott Kazmir (+$430, 3.73 ERA), who?s both won a big game at Fenway and dealt Curt Schilling his first loss of the new season. The A?s have averaged only 3.0 runs per game vs. lefties in limited tries, so grab the price on the steadily improving Tampa Bay southpaw. BEST BET: Kazmir.
Cleveland at Seattle (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Indians are another run scoring juggernaut (.303 team BA, with 154 total runs scored, highest in the majors in both) but their pitching is a disaster right now (5.42 ERA). Cliff Lee (+$305, 2.97 ERA) look good, as has Jason Johnson (3.41), but the absence of C.C. Sabathia and the departure of Kevin Millwood has left a void. So go with Lee when he takes the hill (Seattle 2-6, -$470 vs. lefties with only 3.6 runs per game) but use the home team vs. the beleaguered Cleveland staff. BEST BET: Lee/Mariners vs. righthanders.
