BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 30
San Francisco at San Diego (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The standings in the NL West continue to bounce around dramatically, with teams moving from first to last and back to first on what seems like a weekly basis. The Padres have had nice run to put them at or near the top once again, thanks largely to a pitching staff that now boasts the 2nd lowest ERA in the league. But despite going 3-1 vs. the Giants earlier this year (+$220), we?re not confident they can prevail in righty vs. righty matchups, considering their poor showing vs. righties at Petco Park so far (-$840). The Giants are 14-12 (+$365) on the road vs. righties, and look like an excellent value as likely road underdogs. BEST BET: Giants when righty meets righty.
Chicago W. Sox at Chicago Cubs (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Cubs were very fortunate to salvage a single victory when they ventured into US Cellular last may. Now they get to take on the defending World Champs (9-1, +$795 last 10 days) in three straight day games at Wrigley, a situation in which they have only won five times in 22 attempts (-$1535). Cubs? pitching has been dreadful (7.19 ERA among starters last 10 days) and the White Sox are averaging a hefty 5.8 runs per game. With the Tigers mounting a vigorous challenge, we doubt the visitor will do any worse than taking 2 out of 3 here. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Philadelphia at Toronto (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Phillies record vs. the AL has dropped to a pitiful 3-8 (-$615) and they?ve fallen hopelessly off the pace in the NL East. So don?t look for much from them against a hungry Toronto team still very much in the thick of the AL East race. The Blue Jays have a team BA almost 40 points higher than the Phillies, and they should make short work of the visitors rotation, one that has posted a 6.47 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). Toronto is 18-11 at home vs. righthanders (+$630) and figure to feast on this lackluster mound corp. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Yankees are 9-2 vs. lefties at the Stadium, but with Tom Glavine not slated to see action, this could be an ugly spot for the Bombers. So far in 2006 they are losing a fortune at home vs. righties (-$1250), and though they may not end up facing the best the Mets have to offer, we?re certainly not anxious to use them as heavy home favorites vs. a 25-13 road team (+$1035). The Mets just missed a sweep of their crosstown rivals at Shea Stadium in May, and they are averaging just under six runs per game on the road this season. They look too tempting to pass up. BEST BET: Mets as underdogs.
Detroit at Pittsburgh (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Tigers have the best record in baseball, not a big surprise when your team ERA is more than half a run less than your closest AL rival (3.57). They are a sensational 28-11 away from Comerica (+$1880) and have a pair of lefties in Kenny Rogers (+$765, 3.44 ERA) and Nate Robertson (+$285, 3.38), at least one of whom will see action (Bucs 6-20, -$1425 vs. southpaws). Watch out for the Pirates in night games vs. righties at PNC (13-5, +$955 in that spot), but go against them in day games whatever the matchup (Bucs 1-12, -$1265 in that spot). BEST BET: Rogers/Robertson/Tigers in day games.
Tampa Bay at Washington (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Devil Rays have put together a nice string of games (6-4, +$285 last 10 days), and they are a stellar 9-3 (+$685) in inter-league games, so the Nationals could have a difficult time with them. Washington has not fared particularly well at RFK Stadium, especially vs. righthanders (9-16, -$870). We?ll take our shot with James Shields, who has looked very sharp in his first five starts since joining the rotation (+$430, 3.00 ERA) and who may even be posted as a modest underdog here. BEST BET: Shields.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Reds are one of the big success stories of the first half, but they won?t stay close in the NL Central if they don?t improve their record here at Great American Ballpark (only 17-19, -$690). The Indians were expected to compete in the AL Central, but they are simply a bad team right now (only 13-22, -$1165 as visitors) and their team ERA (4.91) is one of the worst in the league. Neither team has fared all that well in inter-league action (Cleveland -$665, Reds -$255), so we?ll stay away from this one right now. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Atlanta (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Orioles have a long way to go, but their starting rotation seems to be getting back on track (3.94 ERA last 10 days) so don?t be surprised if this team puts together a decent 2nd half and sets themselves up for better things in 2007. We like their numbers vs. righthanders (+$1060 overall, +$625 on the road) and don?t see why they can?t make life miserable for a floundering and frustrated Atlanta squad (Braves -$2000 overall). The Braves are averaging a mere 3.3 runs per game over their last 10, and the pitching that led them to 14 straight division titles is a mere memory at this point. BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Boston at Florida (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Red Sox have been enjoying inter-league action (10-1, +$950) so we?ll need to take it easy, even though the Marlins have been hot in June. We love then in night games at this ballpark (+$570 in that situation), and Boston is a far less imposing opponent outside of Fenway Park, but we?ll only take the plunge when ace Dontrelle Willis is on the mound (Bosox -$360 vs. southpaws). Willis?s name pops up often in trade rumors, so he could be moved at any point, though it seems all-advised given his youth and the minimal salary he currently commands. BEST BET: Willis.
Houston at Texas (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Astros took 2 out of 3 at MinuteMaid Park, and even though they?ve looked very shaky on the road, we?re hoping for some spots where we can use them. The good news is that Texas has a lousy record here at Arlington, particularly vs. righthanders (-$760) and with Clemens back in the mix, some of the pressure will be off Roy Oswalt (3.27 ERA in 15 starts) and the rest of the rotation. The Rangers pitching has been less impressive in recent days (6.24 last 10), probably not good enough to stop the A?s. BEST BET: Oswalt.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Brewers don?t play well in the road (only 12-22, -$845) and their pitching staff is the worst in the NL (5.00) despite the presence of one of our favorite young lefties Chris Capuano. We?ll steer clear of the visitor?s ace, and load up on the hot Twins (9-1, +$910 last 10 days) when they are squaring off against the Brewers? righthanders (Minnesota +$1330 vs. righties at the Metrodome). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at St. Louis (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
This is a throwaway series and there isn?t a great deal left to say. Even though the Cardinals have been slipping (4-6, -$215 last 10 days) they are still relatively comfortable atop the NL Central and should make short work of the hapless Royals, with their pitiful 9-30 (-$890) road record. Won?t touch the visitor underdog, no interest in laying exorbitant prices. We?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
Arizona at Oakland (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Diamondbacks headed south in a hurry after teasing their fans for a while in April and May (2-9, -$710 last 10 days with a 7.49 ERA among starters) and now they get to take on the surging Athletics, who have taken the lead in the AL West following their traditional ugly start. Their pitching looks great (3.94 ERA last 10 days), with Danny Haren (3.56) and Barry Zito (3.36) continuing to spearhead the club?s recent success. BEST BET: Haren/Zito.
Colorado at Seattle (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Rockies would love to have Jeff Francis on the mound for one of these games (Mariners only 8-16, -$1060 vs. southpaws), but he?s not in line for an appearance at Safeco. That means pretty smooth sailing for an improved Seattle team (7-3, +$535 last 10 days). So far Seattle has managed a 16-8 (+$685) record vs. righthanders at home, averaging 5.8 runs per game in those contests. Stay away from Jason Jennings (+$380 overall 0.00 ERA last two starts), but the rest of the Colorado hurlers are fair game. BEST BET: Mariners vs. all righthanders except Jennings.
L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
When these teams squared off at Chavez Ravine in May, the result was a humiliating sweep of the Angels by a combined score of 31-7. If would be nice if the the Angels could exact a measure of revenge, but they?ve been an awful betting proposition here at home (only 16-20, -$1085), and the Dodgers have a 9-5 (+$485) record in road day games. The pitching is comparable, but the visitor is averaging close to a full run per game more on offense, so those two afternoon contests slated for Saturday & Sunday make very inviting opportunities. BEST BET: Dodgers in day games.
San Francisco at San Diego (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The standings in the NL West continue to bounce around dramatically, with teams moving from first to last and back to first on what seems like a weekly basis. The Padres have had nice run to put them at or near the top once again, thanks largely to a pitching staff that now boasts the 2nd lowest ERA in the league. But despite going 3-1 vs. the Giants earlier this year (+$220), we?re not confident they can prevail in righty vs. righty matchups, considering their poor showing vs. righties at Petco Park so far (-$840). The Giants are 14-12 (+$365) on the road vs. righties, and look like an excellent value as likely road underdogs. BEST BET: Giants when righty meets righty.
Chicago W. Sox at Chicago Cubs (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Cubs were very fortunate to salvage a single victory when they ventured into US Cellular last may. Now they get to take on the defending World Champs (9-1, +$795 last 10 days) in three straight day games at Wrigley, a situation in which they have only won five times in 22 attempts (-$1535). Cubs? pitching has been dreadful (7.19 ERA among starters last 10 days) and the White Sox are averaging a hefty 5.8 runs per game. With the Tigers mounting a vigorous challenge, we doubt the visitor will do any worse than taking 2 out of 3 here. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Philadelphia at Toronto (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Phillies record vs. the AL has dropped to a pitiful 3-8 (-$615) and they?ve fallen hopelessly off the pace in the NL East. So don?t look for much from them against a hungry Toronto team still very much in the thick of the AL East race. The Blue Jays have a team BA almost 40 points higher than the Phillies, and they should make short work of the visitors rotation, one that has posted a 6.47 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). Toronto is 18-11 at home vs. righthanders (+$630) and figure to feast on this lackluster mound corp. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Yankees are 9-2 vs. lefties at the Stadium, but with Tom Glavine not slated to see action, this could be an ugly spot for the Bombers. So far in 2006 they are losing a fortune at home vs. righties (-$1250), and though they may not end up facing the best the Mets have to offer, we?re certainly not anxious to use them as heavy home favorites vs. a 25-13 road team (+$1035). The Mets just missed a sweep of their crosstown rivals at Shea Stadium in May, and they are averaging just under six runs per game on the road this season. They look too tempting to pass up. BEST BET: Mets as underdogs.
Detroit at Pittsburgh (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Tigers have the best record in baseball, not a big surprise when your team ERA is more than half a run less than your closest AL rival (3.57). They are a sensational 28-11 away from Comerica (+$1880) and have a pair of lefties in Kenny Rogers (+$765, 3.44 ERA) and Nate Robertson (+$285, 3.38), at least one of whom will see action (Bucs 6-20, -$1425 vs. southpaws). Watch out for the Pirates in night games vs. righties at PNC (13-5, +$955 in that spot), but go against them in day games whatever the matchup (Bucs 1-12, -$1265 in that spot). BEST BET: Rogers/Robertson/Tigers in day games.
Tampa Bay at Washington (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Devil Rays have put together a nice string of games (6-4, +$285 last 10 days), and they are a stellar 9-3 (+$685) in inter-league games, so the Nationals could have a difficult time with them. Washington has not fared particularly well at RFK Stadium, especially vs. righthanders (9-16, -$870). We?ll take our shot with James Shields, who has looked very sharp in his first five starts since joining the rotation (+$430, 3.00 ERA) and who may even be posted as a modest underdog here. BEST BET: Shields.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Reds are one of the big success stories of the first half, but they won?t stay close in the NL Central if they don?t improve their record here at Great American Ballpark (only 17-19, -$690). The Indians were expected to compete in the AL Central, but they are simply a bad team right now (only 13-22, -$1165 as visitors) and their team ERA (4.91) is one of the worst in the league. Neither team has fared all that well in inter-league action (Cleveland -$665, Reds -$255), so we?ll stay away from this one right now. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Atlanta (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Orioles have a long way to go, but their starting rotation seems to be getting back on track (3.94 ERA last 10 days) so don?t be surprised if this team puts together a decent 2nd half and sets themselves up for better things in 2007. We like their numbers vs. righthanders (+$1060 overall, +$625 on the road) and don?t see why they can?t make life miserable for a floundering and frustrated Atlanta squad (Braves -$2000 overall). The Braves are averaging a mere 3.3 runs per game over their last 10, and the pitching that led them to 14 straight division titles is a mere memory at this point. BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Boston at Florida (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Red Sox have been enjoying inter-league action (10-1, +$950) so we?ll need to take it easy, even though the Marlins have been hot in June. We love then in night games at this ballpark (+$570 in that situation), and Boston is a far less imposing opponent outside of Fenway Park, but we?ll only take the plunge when ace Dontrelle Willis is on the mound (Bosox -$360 vs. southpaws). Willis?s name pops up often in trade rumors, so he could be moved at any point, though it seems all-advised given his youth and the minimal salary he currently commands. BEST BET: Willis.
Houston at Texas (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Astros took 2 out of 3 at MinuteMaid Park, and even though they?ve looked very shaky on the road, we?re hoping for some spots where we can use them. The good news is that Texas has a lousy record here at Arlington, particularly vs. righthanders (-$760) and with Clemens back in the mix, some of the pressure will be off Roy Oswalt (3.27 ERA in 15 starts) and the rest of the rotation. The Rangers pitching has been less impressive in recent days (6.24 last 10), probably not good enough to stop the A?s. BEST BET: Oswalt.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Brewers don?t play well in the road (only 12-22, -$845) and their pitching staff is the worst in the NL (5.00) despite the presence of one of our favorite young lefties Chris Capuano. We?ll steer clear of the visitor?s ace, and load up on the hot Twins (9-1, +$910 last 10 days) when they are squaring off against the Brewers? righthanders (Minnesota +$1330 vs. righties at the Metrodome). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at St. Louis (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
This is a throwaway series and there isn?t a great deal left to say. Even though the Cardinals have been slipping (4-6, -$215 last 10 days) they are still relatively comfortable atop the NL Central and should make short work of the hapless Royals, with their pitiful 9-30 (-$890) road record. Won?t touch the visitor underdog, no interest in laying exorbitant prices. We?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
Arizona at Oakland (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Diamondbacks headed south in a hurry after teasing their fans for a while in April and May (2-9, -$710 last 10 days with a 7.49 ERA among starters) and now they get to take on the surging Athletics, who have taken the lead in the AL West following their traditional ugly start. Their pitching looks great (3.94 ERA last 10 days), with Danny Haren (3.56) and Barry Zito (3.36) continuing to spearhead the club?s recent success. BEST BET: Haren/Zito.
Colorado at Seattle (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Rockies would love to have Jeff Francis on the mound for one of these games (Mariners only 8-16, -$1060 vs. southpaws), but he?s not in line for an appearance at Safeco. That means pretty smooth sailing for an improved Seattle team (7-3, +$535 last 10 days). So far Seattle has managed a 16-8 (+$685) record vs. righthanders at home, averaging 5.8 runs per game in those contests. Stay away from Jason Jennings (+$380 overall 0.00 ERA last two starts), but the rest of the Colorado hurlers are fair game. BEST BET: Mariners vs. all righthanders except Jennings.
L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
When these teams squared off at Chavez Ravine in May, the result was a humiliating sweep of the Angels by a combined score of 31-7. If would be nice if the the Angels could exact a measure of revenge, but they?ve been an awful betting proposition here at home (only 16-20, -$1085), and the Dodgers have a 9-5 (+$485) record in road day games. The pitching is comparable, but the visitor is averaging close to a full run per game more on offense, so those two afternoon contests slated for Saturday & Sunday make very inviting opportunities. BEST BET: Dodgers in day games.
