BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 20
Pittsburgh at Florida (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
It?s true that the Marlins are slightly in the red when playing in this ballpark. It is also true that they?ve lost a chunk of money when facing lefthanders (-$600). But that having been said, there is no way we?re not going to use Florida throughout this series. The Pirates have by far the worst record in the NL, including an appalling 10-36 (-$2200) outside of PNC Park. The young lefthanders expected to form the backbone of their starting rotation have not come through (4.94 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league) and they only rank 10th in runs scored. Since opening the season at 11-31, the Marlins have been one of the top teams in the league for a couple of months. BEST BET: Marlins in all games.
San Diego at San Francisco (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Still plenty of time for any of the five teams in the NL West to take command of that situation, but at the moment the Padres appear to be in the best position. Their pitching is now the top rated in the NL (4.07 ERA), and they?ve got a three game lead in the lost column over their nearest rivals. That 21-9 (+$1430) record vs. righthanders outside of Petco Park is tempting to go with, and note how poorly the Giants have fared vs. righthanders here at ATT Park. The Padres have beaten them 17-9 (+$600) in head to head play over the past two years, and we like their chances, even when SF has their top pitchers on the hill. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Yankees have managed to keep pace with the top teams in the AL, and have looked sharp in recent days (6-1, +$480 with 6.7 runs per game and a 3.46 ERA among starters). The Blue Jays aren?t far behind and that record vs. righthanders at Skydome (24-12, +$1105) is difficult to argue with. It looks like they?ll sidestep Randy Johnson, so they?ll be fed a steady diet of righthanders by New York. But even though the Yankees are money-burners against righthanders, we?re reluctant to commit to the home team, given the visitor?s solid run production against them. We prefer to re-visit this series closer to game day. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Kansas City (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
They certainly appeared doomed a month ago, but the Angels have caught fire over the past few weeks (6-1, +$500 last 10 days) and their pitching staff now rates as second best in the AL (4.00 ERA). They steamrolled over the last place Devil Rays at Anaheim last weekend, and one would expect them to make very short work of the hapless Royals this weekend. KC checks in with a pathetic 5.83 team ERA, and their offense has scored the 3rd fewest runs in the league. But despite their obvious deficiencies, they?ve make lots of money vs. righties here at Kaufman Stadium (16-13, +$1140). The Angels may go off at very high prices in this series, and that opens the door for us to take the lightly regarded home team at a wildly inflated cost. BEST BET: Royals vs. righthanders at +150 or better.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 21
Chicago Cubs at Washington (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Cubs haven?t lost as much money as the Pirates this year, but they are not too far behind (35-56, -$1955). The Nationals haven?t done much to distinguish themselves this year (4.93 ERA, .258 team BA, near the bottom in the NL in both departments), and their dismal record vs. righthanders here at RFK Stadium will keep us on the sidelines when they face one. But Washington has a 7-2 record at home against lefties (+$400) and they?ll be squaring off against Sean Marshall this weekend. They can beat the Chicago southpaw, whose road ERA is just under 6.00. BEST BET: Nationals vs. Marshall.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mets would love to see these two teams hammer away at each other and split the series, rather than see either one engineer a sweep and mount a challenge in the all but over NL East division race. The Phillies have taken 4 of 5 already this year (+$305), but the Braves have looked better (6-1, +$530 last 10 days) and they are third to only New York and LA in total runs scored (5.2 per game so far). Watch out for Brett Myers, who has rejoined the team, but the rest of the home team?s hurlers are fair game. BEST BET: Braves in all games unless opposed by Myers.
Houston at N.Y. Mets (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Astros should be getting boost with Roger Clemens back in the rotation, but they?ve failed to capitalize on his presence so far (only 1-4, -$400 in his first 5 starts). He?s pitched very well, but run support is again a problem (Houston .257 team BA, lowest in the NL) and we don?t like their chances against the NL best team. The Astros are only 17-26 on the road in 2006 (-$920) so lay the price on the Mets anytime they square off a lefthander (NY 15-7, +$660 vs. southpaws this season). BEST BET: Mets vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Even if the Reds don?t catch up to the Cardinals in the NL Central, they?ve got a great chance to stay in the wildcard race until the end of the season. They?ll need to do a better job here at Great American Ballpark, but the Brewers are a terrible road team (16-28, -$950) and they appear to be fading fast. Cincinnati averages 6.3 runs per game at home vs. lefties so take a shot when Chris Capuano goes for the visitor, no doubt at a price that will make the home team look very attractive. BEST BET: Reds vs. Capuano.
Colorado at Arizona (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Diamondbacks may have taken 6 of 9 from the Rockies in their earlier meetings (+$300) but they still lose money at Chase Field when taking on righthanders (-$590) and we?ve made money in 2006 taking Colorado outside of Coors Field (+$405 as a visitor so far). The Rockies continue to get excellent pitching, the best they?ve ever had as a franchise (4.29 ERA, 4th lowest in the NL). Aaron Cook has been one of their top hurlers (3.59 ERA in 19 starts) and he will see action this weekend. BEST BET: Cook.
St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Cardinals did a nice job shutting down the Dodgers offense on their way to a four game sweep (+$400) at Busch Stadium last weekend. But LA is 23-12 (+$880) vs. righties at Chavez Ravine, and St. Louis is only a .500 team on the road this year (-$195). We?d love to use newly Mark Hendrickson, given the Cardinals weaknesses against lefthanders, but he?s not likely to see action, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on All-Star starter Brad Penny (+$300, 3.27 ERA), who looks as sharp as anyone in MLB right now. BEST BET: Penny.
Oakland at Detroit (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Tigers are by far the most profitable team in baseball (62-29, +$2705) and they simply don?t have any discernible weaknesses at this time. We do believe the Athletics have the pitching to ultimately prevail in the AL West, but their offense is terrible (.244 team BA with only 4.4 runs per game) and certainly no match for Detroit?s top rated mound corps (3.49 ERA). Stick with the home team, but only if the prices stay in line. BEST BET: Tigers at -140 or less.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Twins lost 5 of 8 to the tribe earlier in the year (-$355) but they?ve really turned their season around and will be very tempting to take at Jacobs field this weekend despite some lackluster numbers outside of the Metrodome. But they?ve cleaned up against righthanders in general (+$1375 with 5.1 runs per game) and the Indians, who had expected to challenge in the AL Central, have lost money at home (-$615). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The O?s have gotten the best of the Devil Rays in head to head play (7-3, +$300), but Tampa remains a force to be reckoned with here Tropicana Field, particularly when squaring off against righthanders (19-15, +$780). We?ll take them whenever that situation arises, and also anytime they send a lefty to the hill (Baltimore 2-15,-$1335 vs. southpaws on the road with just 3.0 runs per game). Hopefully we?ll get to use Scott Kazmir (+$765, 3.27 ERA) assuming his stiff neck has gotten better, but Casey Fossum (+$535) will fit the bill nicely as well. BEST BET: Kazmir/Fossum/Devil Rays vs. righthanders.
Texas at Chicago W. Sox (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The White Sox have seen their rotation underperform in recent days (7.58 ERA last 10 . . . 4.57 overall, 8th best in the league) and their are rumors concerning Freddy Garcia and Javier Vazquez being moved prior to the trading deadline. The Rangers are a solid road team, and their numbers vs. lefties are good in all settings (+$610 with 5.1 runs per game). Mark Buehrle is coming off a pair of awful starts (11.58 ERA) but he?ll still be heavily favored. Texas will be hard to pass up when he goes. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Buehrle
Boston at Seattle (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Red Sox don?t look like a sure thing to make the playoffs these days, with Josh Beckett getting brutalized in recent outings, He?ll miss this series, but the Mariners do score runs against righthanders, so caution is advised. The visitor?s best bet appears to be Jon Lester (+$255, 2.89 ERA in seven starts), given Seattle?s difficulty handling southpaws (only 9-16, -$955 with 3.9 runs per game). Jamie Moyer (3.75) will be an excellent value for the home, since Boston can?t handle lefthanders either (-$770 overall). BEST BET: Lester & Moyer unless they oppose each other.
Pittsburgh at Florida (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
It?s true that the Marlins are slightly in the red when playing in this ballpark. It is also true that they?ve lost a chunk of money when facing lefthanders (-$600). But that having been said, there is no way we?re not going to use Florida throughout this series. The Pirates have by far the worst record in the NL, including an appalling 10-36 (-$2200) outside of PNC Park. The young lefthanders expected to form the backbone of their starting rotation have not come through (4.94 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league) and they only rank 10th in runs scored. Since opening the season at 11-31, the Marlins have been one of the top teams in the league for a couple of months. BEST BET: Marlins in all games.
San Diego at San Francisco (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Still plenty of time for any of the five teams in the NL West to take command of that situation, but at the moment the Padres appear to be in the best position. Their pitching is now the top rated in the NL (4.07 ERA), and they?ve got a three game lead in the lost column over their nearest rivals. That 21-9 (+$1430) record vs. righthanders outside of Petco Park is tempting to go with, and note how poorly the Giants have fared vs. righthanders here at ATT Park. The Padres have beaten them 17-9 (+$600) in head to head play over the past two years, and we like their chances, even when SF has their top pitchers on the hill. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Yankees have managed to keep pace with the top teams in the AL, and have looked sharp in recent days (6-1, +$480 with 6.7 runs per game and a 3.46 ERA among starters). The Blue Jays aren?t far behind and that record vs. righthanders at Skydome (24-12, +$1105) is difficult to argue with. It looks like they?ll sidestep Randy Johnson, so they?ll be fed a steady diet of righthanders by New York. But even though the Yankees are money-burners against righthanders, we?re reluctant to commit to the home team, given the visitor?s solid run production against them. We prefer to re-visit this series closer to game day. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Kansas City (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
They certainly appeared doomed a month ago, but the Angels have caught fire over the past few weeks (6-1, +$500 last 10 days) and their pitching staff now rates as second best in the AL (4.00 ERA). They steamrolled over the last place Devil Rays at Anaheim last weekend, and one would expect them to make very short work of the hapless Royals this weekend. KC checks in with a pathetic 5.83 team ERA, and their offense has scored the 3rd fewest runs in the league. But despite their obvious deficiencies, they?ve make lots of money vs. righties here at Kaufman Stadium (16-13, +$1140). The Angels may go off at very high prices in this series, and that opens the door for us to take the lightly regarded home team at a wildly inflated cost. BEST BET: Royals vs. righthanders at +150 or better.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 21
Chicago Cubs at Washington (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Cubs haven?t lost as much money as the Pirates this year, but they are not too far behind (35-56, -$1955). The Nationals haven?t done much to distinguish themselves this year (4.93 ERA, .258 team BA, near the bottom in the NL in both departments), and their dismal record vs. righthanders here at RFK Stadium will keep us on the sidelines when they face one. But Washington has a 7-2 record at home against lefties (+$400) and they?ll be squaring off against Sean Marshall this weekend. They can beat the Chicago southpaw, whose road ERA is just under 6.00. BEST BET: Nationals vs. Marshall.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mets would love to see these two teams hammer away at each other and split the series, rather than see either one engineer a sweep and mount a challenge in the all but over NL East division race. The Phillies have taken 4 of 5 already this year (+$305), but the Braves have looked better (6-1, +$530 last 10 days) and they are third to only New York and LA in total runs scored (5.2 per game so far). Watch out for Brett Myers, who has rejoined the team, but the rest of the home team?s hurlers are fair game. BEST BET: Braves in all games unless opposed by Myers.
Houston at N.Y. Mets (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Astros should be getting boost with Roger Clemens back in the rotation, but they?ve failed to capitalize on his presence so far (only 1-4, -$400 in his first 5 starts). He?s pitched very well, but run support is again a problem (Houston .257 team BA, lowest in the NL) and we don?t like their chances against the NL best team. The Astros are only 17-26 on the road in 2006 (-$920) so lay the price on the Mets anytime they square off a lefthander (NY 15-7, +$660 vs. southpaws this season). BEST BET: Mets vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Even if the Reds don?t catch up to the Cardinals in the NL Central, they?ve got a great chance to stay in the wildcard race until the end of the season. They?ll need to do a better job here at Great American Ballpark, but the Brewers are a terrible road team (16-28, -$950) and they appear to be fading fast. Cincinnati averages 6.3 runs per game at home vs. lefties so take a shot when Chris Capuano goes for the visitor, no doubt at a price that will make the home team look very attractive. BEST BET: Reds vs. Capuano.
Colorado at Arizona (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Diamondbacks may have taken 6 of 9 from the Rockies in their earlier meetings (+$300) but they still lose money at Chase Field when taking on righthanders (-$590) and we?ve made money in 2006 taking Colorado outside of Coors Field (+$405 as a visitor so far). The Rockies continue to get excellent pitching, the best they?ve ever had as a franchise (4.29 ERA, 4th lowest in the NL). Aaron Cook has been one of their top hurlers (3.59 ERA in 19 starts) and he will see action this weekend. BEST BET: Cook.
St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Cardinals did a nice job shutting down the Dodgers offense on their way to a four game sweep (+$400) at Busch Stadium last weekend. But LA is 23-12 (+$880) vs. righties at Chavez Ravine, and St. Louis is only a .500 team on the road this year (-$195). We?d love to use newly Mark Hendrickson, given the Cardinals weaknesses against lefthanders, but he?s not likely to see action, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on All-Star starter Brad Penny (+$300, 3.27 ERA), who looks as sharp as anyone in MLB right now. BEST BET: Penny.
Oakland at Detroit (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Tigers are by far the most profitable team in baseball (62-29, +$2705) and they simply don?t have any discernible weaknesses at this time. We do believe the Athletics have the pitching to ultimately prevail in the AL West, but their offense is terrible (.244 team BA with only 4.4 runs per game) and certainly no match for Detroit?s top rated mound corps (3.49 ERA). Stick with the home team, but only if the prices stay in line. BEST BET: Tigers at -140 or less.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Twins lost 5 of 8 to the tribe earlier in the year (-$355) but they?ve really turned their season around and will be very tempting to take at Jacobs field this weekend despite some lackluster numbers outside of the Metrodome. But they?ve cleaned up against righthanders in general (+$1375 with 5.1 runs per game) and the Indians, who had expected to challenge in the AL Central, have lost money at home (-$615). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The O?s have gotten the best of the Devil Rays in head to head play (7-3, +$300), but Tampa remains a force to be reckoned with here Tropicana Field, particularly when squaring off against righthanders (19-15, +$780). We?ll take them whenever that situation arises, and also anytime they send a lefty to the hill (Baltimore 2-15,-$1335 vs. southpaws on the road with just 3.0 runs per game). Hopefully we?ll get to use Scott Kazmir (+$765, 3.27 ERA) assuming his stiff neck has gotten better, but Casey Fossum (+$535) will fit the bill nicely as well. BEST BET: Kazmir/Fossum/Devil Rays vs. righthanders.
Texas at Chicago W. Sox (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The White Sox have seen their rotation underperform in recent days (7.58 ERA last 10 . . . 4.57 overall, 8th best in the league) and their are rumors concerning Freddy Garcia and Javier Vazquez being moved prior to the trading deadline. The Rangers are a solid road team, and their numbers vs. lefties are good in all settings (+$610 with 5.1 runs per game). Mark Buehrle is coming off a pair of awful starts (11.58 ERA) but he?ll still be heavily favored. Texas will be hard to pass up when he goes. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Buehrle
Boston at Seattle (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Red Sox don?t look like a sure thing to make the playoffs these days, with Josh Beckett getting brutalized in recent outings, He?ll miss this series, but the Mariners do score runs against righthanders, so caution is advised. The visitor?s best bet appears to be Jon Lester (+$255, 2.89 ERA in seven starts), given Seattle?s difficulty handling southpaws (only 9-16, -$955 with 3.9 runs per game). Jamie Moyer (3.75) will be an excellent value for the home, since Boston can?t handle lefthanders either (-$770 overall). BEST BET: Lester & Moyer unless they oppose each other.
