BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 27
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Cubs have had a rough ride in 2006 and you would expect the Cardinals to make short work of them at Wrigley Field this weekend. But they’ve not had much success in head to head play with Chicago (3-6, -$650 in 2006, 6-10, -$765 in ‘05) so caution is advised, Another problem for St. Louis is their weak record outside of Busch Stadium (only 25-22) and their heavy losses vs. lefthanders (16-21, -$1330 so far). Sean Marshall has turned a profit for the home team (+$205) and he pitches better in this ballpark. We’ll overlook the Cubs’ obvious shortcomings and take the price when he is on the mound. BEST BET: Marshall.
San Diego at Colorado (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Padres had a nice handle on things in the NL West not too long ago and appeared poised to take full command. But they’ve fallen on hard times since the All-Star break (only 3-7, -$455 with a 7.13 ERA among starters last 10 days), allowing hot Arizona and San Francisco teams to jump ahead in the division standings. But the Rockies are floundering these days as well (only 2-8, -$620 last 10) and they’ve been net losers at Coors Field thus far. The Padres are still boasting impressive numbers on the road vs. righthanders (22-11, +$1335) so we’ll look for them to get back on track in this four game series. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Oakland (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Athletics managed to survive a particularly frightening road trip following the All-Star break, coming away with a very respectable 6-4 (+380) record after 10 games visiting Boston Baltimore and Detroit. Now they come home to take on a Toronto team that has not excelled in road games this year (20-22, -$490). Oakland’s bullpen has made up for the less than stellar rotation the team has been sending forth, so we’ll go ahead and stick with Barry Zito (3.20 ERA in 21 starts) and Joe Blanton, who plays better at McAfee Coliseum and who put together a tremendous second half in 2005. BEST BET: Zito/Blanton.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 28
Florida at Philadelphia (5) 28th, 29th, 30th (DH), 31st
The Marlins knew full well that 2006 would be a rebuilding year for them when the season started. But the Phillies had a veteran lineup they thought they had a chance to compete, so finding themselves hopelessly out of the playoffs as the trading deadline approaches could induce them to start unloading their high priced talent. That would suggest taking Florida throughout this series, a team far more likely to play hard down the stretch. Philly has a terrible record against righthanders (-$1190 overall) and here at Citizens Bank (16-19, -$1120) while the Marlins check in with a respectable +$820 profit vs. righties so far. Look for the home team to be overpriced, opening the door for the visitor to make up ground in the standings. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Pirates had one of their only successful road series when they went into ATT Park and took 3 out of 4 from the Giants (+$360). We won’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh prevail again here at PNC Park for a couple of reasons. The Giants only have one lefthander in the rotation, Noah Lowry, and his ERA on the road is not encouraging (5.74). The Pirates are a disaster on the road, in day games, and against lefthanders, but their record against righthanders in home night games has been phenomenal (17-6, +$1350 with 5.7 runs per game in those contests). So skip Sunday and look to capitalize the other two days. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
N.Y. Mets at Atlanta (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
If there is even the tiniest glimmer of hope for the Braves to climb back to the top of the NL East, they’ll need a sweep of the Mets here at Turner Field this weekend. But it’s not likely to happen. The Braves have had a few good games after the All-Star Break, but things can quickly turn against them. Meanwhile, the Mets just keep on rolling (6-3, +$295 since the break) and they come in here with the best pitching (4.04 team ERA) and the best road record in the league (30-20, +$915). Atlanta has been a disaster in this ballpark (22-26, -$980) and their pitching is nowhere near as good as NY’s. We’ll take the visitor throughout. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Arizona at Houston (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The D’backs seem to have regained the hope that had them 10 games over .500 at the start of June (7-3, +$350 last 10 days), moving back into the thick of the NL West playoff chase. The Astros have collapsed offensively (.253 team BA with less than 4.5 runs per game, dead last in the NL in both departments), they are not going to catch up with the Cardinals, and their second half surge of the past two seasons does not appear destined for a repeat in ‘06. The all-righty Arizona rotation should feast on this lineup (Houston 35-43, -$1570 vs. righties). BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
After hanging around the .500 mark for much of the first four months of the season, the Brewers are starting to slip (3-6, -$240 last 10 days), and with the worst pitching staff in the league (5.05 ERA) the next two months could get ugly. The Reds, the the other hand, have caught a second wind (7-3, +$395 last 10 days), and their offense that has scored the 3rd most runs in the NL (over 5.0 per game) can fatten up at Milwaukee’s expense. They’ve turned a huge profit on the road vs. righties (+$805) and none of Milwaukee’s hurlers concern us. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders.
Washington at L.A. Dodgers (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Dodgers are floundering in the second half (1-10, -$945 since the break, scoring only 1.5 runs per game with a 5.84 ERA among starters), so we’re not anxious to lay high prices on them at Chavez Ravine at this time. The Nationals don’t provide a very appealing underdog statistically (4.87 ERA, .260 team BA, near the bottom in the NL in both departments), and they’ve lost money as a visitor despite usually always taking a decent price (-$475). If we see something develop as game day draws near we’ll take a closer look, but for now we prefer to pass. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Devil Rays caused all sorts of problems for the Yankees in 2006, but so far this year they’ve not given New York very much trouble (only 2-6, -$245). They’ve been a particularly lousy road team (only 17-37, -$1220) and none of the righthanders in their rotation appear capable of handling the Yankees, who have lost money vs. righthanders. As for lefthanders, the Yankees are 21-9 (+$880 overall) with 6.1 runs per game, including a 12-3 mark here in the Bronx. Scott Kazmir will appear in this series, and his presence will keep the price on NY low. We’ll go against the ace southpaw when he takes the hill. BEST BET: Yankees vs. Kazmir.
Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The White Sox (2-7, -$595 since the All-Star Break) have fallen 6 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central and are at risk to fall behind in the wildcard race if they’re not careful. The bad news is that Mark Buehrle will miss this series, unfortunate given the Orioles struggles vs. southpaws. On the other hand, Baltimore has posted enormous profits vs. righthanders (+$1030 with 5.2 runs per game) and the Chicago staff is currently underperforming (5.47 ERA last 10). Eric Bedard (+$580) looks like an easy choice in this one (White Sox -$570 vs. lefties on the road). BEST BET: Bedard.
L.A. Angels at Boston (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Angels had been very hot, but they ran into trouble when they visited the Royals at Kaufman Stadium, so how well can we expect them to do here at Fenway? Boston checks in with a remarkable 32-13 record in home games (+$1280) and a 43-22 record against righthanders (+$1690). The Angels are not in the same league as the Red Sox offensively, averaging almost one less run per game. Our only concern is excessive prices, so stick with the home team but only if the cost is reasonable. BEST BET: Red Sox at -140 or less.
Seattle at Cleveland (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Indians are one of the season’s most conspicuous underachievers (43-54, -$1875) and while they can score runs, their pitching has been a major disappointment (4.77 team ERA, 4th worst in the AL). The Mariners are still alive in the tightly packed AL West, and they’ve turned a modest profit vs. righthanders outside of Safeco Field (+$340 with 5.3 runs per game). We’ll stay away from those Cleveland southpaws, but when the matchup is right we’ll jump on the visitor. BEST BET: Mariners when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Royals don’t look quite as bad these days as they did through most of the early season, but that pitiful 13-39 (-$970) road record will keep us away from them down in Arlington. The Rangers are keeping pace in the wild AL West, but their pitching is falling apart (5.54 ERA among starters last 10 days) and their record vs. righties is a cause for concern. But they are 15-10 (+$660) vs. southpaws, so lay the price on the home team anytime KC sends one to the hill. BEST BET: Rangers vs. lefthanders.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Tigers have dominated head to head play between these clubs, taking 7 of the first 9 (+$505) but the Twins are a force to be reckoned with at this time. They are 37-11 at the Metrodome in ‘06 (+$2540) and have pulled to within three games of an AL wildcard berth that seemed unattainable one month ago. The Tigers, however, are the best road team in baseball 33-15 (+$1815) and they’ve shown no signs of letting up, They helped drive Chicago well off the pace, thereby solidifying their hold on the division title, so if anyone can venture into this ballpark and prevail it is Detroit. We’ll look for an edge when we see specific matchups. BEST BET: None.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Cubs have had a rough ride in 2006 and you would expect the Cardinals to make short work of them at Wrigley Field this weekend. But they’ve not had much success in head to head play with Chicago (3-6, -$650 in 2006, 6-10, -$765 in ‘05) so caution is advised, Another problem for St. Louis is their weak record outside of Busch Stadium (only 25-22) and their heavy losses vs. lefthanders (16-21, -$1330 so far). Sean Marshall has turned a profit for the home team (+$205) and he pitches better in this ballpark. We’ll overlook the Cubs’ obvious shortcomings and take the price when he is on the mound. BEST BET: Marshall.
San Diego at Colorado (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Padres had a nice handle on things in the NL West not too long ago and appeared poised to take full command. But they’ve fallen on hard times since the All-Star break (only 3-7, -$455 with a 7.13 ERA among starters last 10 days), allowing hot Arizona and San Francisco teams to jump ahead in the division standings. But the Rockies are floundering these days as well (only 2-8, -$620 last 10) and they’ve been net losers at Coors Field thus far. The Padres are still boasting impressive numbers on the road vs. righthanders (22-11, +$1335) so we’ll look for them to get back on track in this four game series. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Oakland (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Athletics managed to survive a particularly frightening road trip following the All-Star break, coming away with a very respectable 6-4 (+380) record after 10 games visiting Boston Baltimore and Detroit. Now they come home to take on a Toronto team that has not excelled in road games this year (20-22, -$490). Oakland’s bullpen has made up for the less than stellar rotation the team has been sending forth, so we’ll go ahead and stick with Barry Zito (3.20 ERA in 21 starts) and Joe Blanton, who plays better at McAfee Coliseum and who put together a tremendous second half in 2005. BEST BET: Zito/Blanton.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 28
Florida at Philadelphia (5) 28th, 29th, 30th (DH), 31st
The Marlins knew full well that 2006 would be a rebuilding year for them when the season started. But the Phillies had a veteran lineup they thought they had a chance to compete, so finding themselves hopelessly out of the playoffs as the trading deadline approaches could induce them to start unloading their high priced talent. That would suggest taking Florida throughout this series, a team far more likely to play hard down the stretch. Philly has a terrible record against righthanders (-$1190 overall) and here at Citizens Bank (16-19, -$1120) while the Marlins check in with a respectable +$820 profit vs. righties so far. Look for the home team to be overpriced, opening the door for the visitor to make up ground in the standings. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Pirates had one of their only successful road series when they went into ATT Park and took 3 out of 4 from the Giants (+$360). We won’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh prevail again here at PNC Park for a couple of reasons. The Giants only have one lefthander in the rotation, Noah Lowry, and his ERA on the road is not encouraging (5.74). The Pirates are a disaster on the road, in day games, and against lefthanders, but their record against righthanders in home night games has been phenomenal (17-6, +$1350 with 5.7 runs per game in those contests). So skip Sunday and look to capitalize the other two days. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
N.Y. Mets at Atlanta (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
If there is even the tiniest glimmer of hope for the Braves to climb back to the top of the NL East, they’ll need a sweep of the Mets here at Turner Field this weekend. But it’s not likely to happen. The Braves have had a few good games after the All-Star Break, but things can quickly turn against them. Meanwhile, the Mets just keep on rolling (6-3, +$295 since the break) and they come in here with the best pitching (4.04 team ERA) and the best road record in the league (30-20, +$915). Atlanta has been a disaster in this ballpark (22-26, -$980) and their pitching is nowhere near as good as NY’s. We’ll take the visitor throughout. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Arizona at Houston (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The D’backs seem to have regained the hope that had them 10 games over .500 at the start of June (7-3, +$350 last 10 days), moving back into the thick of the NL West playoff chase. The Astros have collapsed offensively (.253 team BA with less than 4.5 runs per game, dead last in the NL in both departments), they are not going to catch up with the Cardinals, and their second half surge of the past two seasons does not appear destined for a repeat in ‘06. The all-righty Arizona rotation should feast on this lineup (Houston 35-43, -$1570 vs. righties). BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
After hanging around the .500 mark for much of the first four months of the season, the Brewers are starting to slip (3-6, -$240 last 10 days), and with the worst pitching staff in the league (5.05 ERA) the next two months could get ugly. The Reds, the the other hand, have caught a second wind (7-3, +$395 last 10 days), and their offense that has scored the 3rd most runs in the NL (over 5.0 per game) can fatten up at Milwaukee’s expense. They’ve turned a huge profit on the road vs. righties (+$805) and none of Milwaukee’s hurlers concern us. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders.
Washington at L.A. Dodgers (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Dodgers are floundering in the second half (1-10, -$945 since the break, scoring only 1.5 runs per game with a 5.84 ERA among starters), so we’re not anxious to lay high prices on them at Chavez Ravine at this time. The Nationals don’t provide a very appealing underdog statistically (4.87 ERA, .260 team BA, near the bottom in the NL in both departments), and they’ve lost money as a visitor despite usually always taking a decent price (-$475). If we see something develop as game day draws near we’ll take a closer look, but for now we prefer to pass. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Devil Rays caused all sorts of problems for the Yankees in 2006, but so far this year they’ve not given New York very much trouble (only 2-6, -$245). They’ve been a particularly lousy road team (only 17-37, -$1220) and none of the righthanders in their rotation appear capable of handling the Yankees, who have lost money vs. righthanders. As for lefthanders, the Yankees are 21-9 (+$880 overall) with 6.1 runs per game, including a 12-3 mark here in the Bronx. Scott Kazmir will appear in this series, and his presence will keep the price on NY low. We’ll go against the ace southpaw when he takes the hill. BEST BET: Yankees vs. Kazmir.
Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The White Sox (2-7, -$595 since the All-Star Break) have fallen 6 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central and are at risk to fall behind in the wildcard race if they’re not careful. The bad news is that Mark Buehrle will miss this series, unfortunate given the Orioles struggles vs. southpaws. On the other hand, Baltimore has posted enormous profits vs. righthanders (+$1030 with 5.2 runs per game) and the Chicago staff is currently underperforming (5.47 ERA last 10). Eric Bedard (+$580) looks like an easy choice in this one (White Sox -$570 vs. lefties on the road). BEST BET: Bedard.
L.A. Angels at Boston (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Angels had been very hot, but they ran into trouble when they visited the Royals at Kaufman Stadium, so how well can we expect them to do here at Fenway? Boston checks in with a remarkable 32-13 record in home games (+$1280) and a 43-22 record against righthanders (+$1690). The Angels are not in the same league as the Red Sox offensively, averaging almost one less run per game. Our only concern is excessive prices, so stick with the home team but only if the cost is reasonable. BEST BET: Red Sox at -140 or less.
Seattle at Cleveland (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Indians are one of the season’s most conspicuous underachievers (43-54, -$1875) and while they can score runs, their pitching has been a major disappointment (4.77 team ERA, 4th worst in the AL). The Mariners are still alive in the tightly packed AL West, and they’ve turned a modest profit vs. righthanders outside of Safeco Field (+$340 with 5.3 runs per game). We’ll stay away from those Cleveland southpaws, but when the matchup is right we’ll jump on the visitor. BEST BET: Mariners when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Royals don’t look quite as bad these days as they did through most of the early season, but that pitiful 13-39 (-$970) road record will keep us away from them down in Arlington. The Rangers are keeping pace in the wild AL West, but their pitching is falling apart (5.54 ERA among starters last 10 days) and their record vs. righties is a cause for concern. But they are 15-10 (+$660) vs. southpaws, so lay the price on the home team anytime KC sends one to the hill. BEST BET: Rangers vs. lefthanders.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Tigers have dominated head to head play between these clubs, taking 7 of the first 9 (+$505) but the Twins are a force to be reckoned with at this time. They are 37-11 at the Metrodome in ‘06 (+$2540) and have pulled to within three games of an AL wildcard berth that seemed unattainable one month ago. The Tigers, however, are the best road team in baseball 33-15 (+$1815) and they’ve shown no signs of letting up, They helped drive Chicago well off the pace, thereby solidifying their hold on the division title, so if anyone can venture into this ballpark and prevail it is Detroit. We’ll look for an edge when we see specific matchups. BEST BET: None.
