BEGINNING SUNDAY APRIL 1
N.Y. Mets at St. Louis (3) 1st, 3rd, 4th
They may be hoisting the the championship banner on Sunday night at Busch Stadium, but the Cardinals 2006 regular season left a great deal to be desired. They did what they had to do after barely slipping into the playoffs, so their success was certainly earned. But this team was only 83-78 in the regular season, and they?ll have their hands full with a superior Mets team anxious to atone for that tough loss in last year?s NLCS. St. Louis will get a dose of Tom Glavine (+$1445) to start things off, and may see Oliver Perez in this series as well. That?s bad news for a team that was only 22-34 (-$2515) vs. lefthanders last year.
PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 2
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
In 2006 the Braves were finally toppled from the top slot in the NL East, costing their backers a bundle in the process (-$1690). But they?ve got a pair of top quality righthanders in John Smoltz & Tim Hudson, and they could be available at very appealing prices vs. the highly rated (perhaps overrated) Phillies in the season opener. The home team lost money at Citizens Bank last year (-$1195) and they?ve been slow starters in recent seasons. Let?s go with the veteran hurlers to get a solid start out of the gate. PREFERRED: Smoltz/Hudson.
Florida at Washington (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Marlins had a good thing going in 2006, but decided to dispense with the services of coach of the year Joe Girardi nonetheless. The pitching has potential, but hurlers who were unknown last year won?t catch other teams by surprise this time around, so Florida may be vulnerable in the early going. The Nationals have been widely written off as the worst team in baseball, but they went 14-8 (+$690) vs. lefties at RFK Stadium, so take a shot against the visitor?s ace southpaw in his 2007 debut. PREFERRED: Nationals vs. Willis.
L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Dodgers have upgraded their pitching nicely this off-season (Randy Wolf, Jason Schmidt), and one would expect the anemic Brewers to have their hands full in this series. But the Brewers have a few assets that could get them off to a decent start in 2007, most notably Chris Capuano, who led Milwaukee to victories in 12 of his 16 starts at Miller Park (+$620) in ?06. And while they?ve added some effective arms, there isn?t much HR pop in the LA lineup, so they?ll be hard pressed to duplicate last year?s average of 5.1 runs scored per game. PREFERRED: Capuano.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Cubs (-$2430 overall in 2006) check in with an explosive new manager, and a pair of newly acquired outfielders who combined for 73 home runs in 2006. But their pitching still leaves much to be desired after you get past ace Carlos Zambrano. Chicago is traditionally overpriced so we?d like to use the Reds in this series, but they do not appear to have improved much, so we?re content to stay on the sidelines for the time being. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
These teams wound up in a dead heat at 76-86 to take up the rear in the NL west last year. But despite the fact that the D?Backs got the best of the Rockies in head to head play, we see a few spots where we like the home team in this series. Jeff Francis was a solid moneymaker for Colorado in 2006, with the team winning 20 of his 32 starts (+$865). And if Randy Johnson is on the hill for this series (status uncertain at press time), keep in mind that the Rockies averaged almost 7 runs per game vs. lefties at home last year. PREFERRED: Francis/Rockies vs. lefthanders.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
We?d love to steal a couple of wins with the Pirates against what appears to be a much weaker Houston team that the one we?ve seen in recent years. But Pittsburgh was a pitiful 3-13 in head to head play with the Astros last year (-$1010) and they could only manage a 27-54 mark in road games (-$2150). Houston had trouble scoring runs in 2006 (only 4.5 per game) and their rotation looks thin without Pettitte & Clemens taking the hill. We?ll sit this one out and see what kind of start these teams get off to. PREFERRED: None.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Yankees start the season with staff ace Chien-Ming Wang on the DL and with Andy Pettitte nursing a sore back. With Mike Mussina slated to start game #2 of this series, the opening day starting slot is up for grabs. After two years on the sidelines, it might fall to Carl Pavano, certainly not what Yankee fans expected to see. The Devil Rats will send ace lefty Scott Kazmir (+$445, 3.24 in 24 starts last year), a pitcher who could prove troublesome for a New York lineup that appears overstocked with lefthanded hitters. The price on the Bombers will be sky high as always. PREFERRED: Kazmir.
Toronto at Detroit (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
Everyone will be gunning for the Tigers after they caught the AL by surprise last year, and the Blue Jays are an improved team that matches up reasonably well against them. Toronto posted a solid 28-19 (+$470) mark vs. lefthanders, with an impressive 5.4 runs per game in those contests. Detroit?s rotation is still loaded with southpaws, and with all their success last year they did lose money here at Comerica (-$570). PREFERRED: Blue Jays vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Indians got the best of Chicago in head to head play last year, but the White Sox are a good home team at 49-32 and the Tribe struggled outside of Jacobs Field. They were only 11-22 (-$1225) vs. lefthanders on the road last year, so we?ll take a shot with Mark Buehrle, who always seems to get off to a fast start before fading in the second half. But stay away from him if C.C. Sabathia is on the mound (Sox -$1255 vs. lefties in ?06). PREFERRED: Buehrle unless opposed by Sabathia.
Boston at Kansas City (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
As bad as the Royals were last year, they managed to post an enormous profit against righthanders (+$2635) despite a 49-64 record against them. They also beat the Bosox in head to head play (5-4, +$490) so they are worth a shot as an underdog when the visitor debuts their high priced import Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tremendous pressure on the Japanese ace, who may need a few outings to settle into his new circumstances. PREFERRED: Royals vs. Matsuzaka.
Oakland at Seattle (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The A?s can always be counted on for a solid second half, but they are notorious slow starters. We?d like to try our luck with the home team under the circumstances, but Seattle was only 2-17 (-$1620) in head to head play with Oakland last year. We?re going to have to sit this one out for now. PREFERRED: None.
Baltimore at Minnesota (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
We?re not big advocates of laying fat prices on favorites, especially this early in the year, but Johan Santana (+$1625, 2.77 ERA in 34 starts overall) looks too good to pass up. Incredibly, the Twins were a perfect 17-0 in the games he started here at the Metrodome. The Orioles meanwhile, posted a 5-21 record on the road vs. lefthanders (-$1610), so how can we possibly refuse? PREFERRED: J. Santana.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Rangers still have plenty of pop in the lineup and they posted solid numbers on the road, particularly vs. righthanders in night games (25-17, +$1130 with 5.7 runs per game). The Angels lost money at home in 2006 (-$305) so we?ll take a shot vs. the all-righty LA rotation. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. righthanders in night games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 3
San Diego at San Francisco (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Giants finished far behind the Padres in the NL West last year, but they managed to win 12 of 19 in head to head meetings (+$530) and they?d added a high priced free-agent lefty in Barry Zito who matches up well with SD (Padres 6-11, -$480 on the road vs. southpaws). But when you look at San Diego?s road record against righthanders (+$1835 with 5.4 runs per game), it?s hard to pass them up in this one. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Padres/Padres vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at St. Louis (3) 1st, 3rd, 4th
They may be hoisting the the championship banner on Sunday night at Busch Stadium, but the Cardinals 2006 regular season left a great deal to be desired. They did what they had to do after barely slipping into the playoffs, so their success was certainly earned. But this team was only 83-78 in the regular season, and they?ll have their hands full with a superior Mets team anxious to atone for that tough loss in last year?s NLCS. St. Louis will get a dose of Tom Glavine (+$1445) to start things off, and may see Oliver Perez in this series as well. That?s bad news for a team that was only 22-34 (-$2515) vs. lefthanders last year.
PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 2
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
In 2006 the Braves were finally toppled from the top slot in the NL East, costing their backers a bundle in the process (-$1690). But they?ve got a pair of top quality righthanders in John Smoltz & Tim Hudson, and they could be available at very appealing prices vs. the highly rated (perhaps overrated) Phillies in the season opener. The home team lost money at Citizens Bank last year (-$1195) and they?ve been slow starters in recent seasons. Let?s go with the veteran hurlers to get a solid start out of the gate. PREFERRED: Smoltz/Hudson.
Florida at Washington (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Marlins had a good thing going in 2006, but decided to dispense with the services of coach of the year Joe Girardi nonetheless. The pitching has potential, but hurlers who were unknown last year won?t catch other teams by surprise this time around, so Florida may be vulnerable in the early going. The Nationals have been widely written off as the worst team in baseball, but they went 14-8 (+$690) vs. lefties at RFK Stadium, so take a shot against the visitor?s ace southpaw in his 2007 debut. PREFERRED: Nationals vs. Willis.
L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Dodgers have upgraded their pitching nicely this off-season (Randy Wolf, Jason Schmidt), and one would expect the anemic Brewers to have their hands full in this series. But the Brewers have a few assets that could get them off to a decent start in 2007, most notably Chris Capuano, who led Milwaukee to victories in 12 of his 16 starts at Miller Park (+$620) in ?06. And while they?ve added some effective arms, there isn?t much HR pop in the LA lineup, so they?ll be hard pressed to duplicate last year?s average of 5.1 runs scored per game. PREFERRED: Capuano.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Cubs (-$2430 overall in 2006) check in with an explosive new manager, and a pair of newly acquired outfielders who combined for 73 home runs in 2006. But their pitching still leaves much to be desired after you get past ace Carlos Zambrano. Chicago is traditionally overpriced so we?d like to use the Reds in this series, but they do not appear to have improved much, so we?re content to stay on the sidelines for the time being. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
These teams wound up in a dead heat at 76-86 to take up the rear in the NL west last year. But despite the fact that the D?Backs got the best of the Rockies in head to head play, we see a few spots where we like the home team in this series. Jeff Francis was a solid moneymaker for Colorado in 2006, with the team winning 20 of his 32 starts (+$865). And if Randy Johnson is on the hill for this series (status uncertain at press time), keep in mind that the Rockies averaged almost 7 runs per game vs. lefties at home last year. PREFERRED: Francis/Rockies vs. lefthanders.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
We?d love to steal a couple of wins with the Pirates against what appears to be a much weaker Houston team that the one we?ve seen in recent years. But Pittsburgh was a pitiful 3-13 in head to head play with the Astros last year (-$1010) and they could only manage a 27-54 mark in road games (-$2150). Houston had trouble scoring runs in 2006 (only 4.5 per game) and their rotation looks thin without Pettitte & Clemens taking the hill. We?ll sit this one out and see what kind of start these teams get off to. PREFERRED: None.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Yankees start the season with staff ace Chien-Ming Wang on the DL and with Andy Pettitte nursing a sore back. With Mike Mussina slated to start game #2 of this series, the opening day starting slot is up for grabs. After two years on the sidelines, it might fall to Carl Pavano, certainly not what Yankee fans expected to see. The Devil Rats will send ace lefty Scott Kazmir (+$445, 3.24 in 24 starts last year), a pitcher who could prove troublesome for a New York lineup that appears overstocked with lefthanded hitters. The price on the Bombers will be sky high as always. PREFERRED: Kazmir.
Toronto at Detroit (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
Everyone will be gunning for the Tigers after they caught the AL by surprise last year, and the Blue Jays are an improved team that matches up reasonably well against them. Toronto posted a solid 28-19 (+$470) mark vs. lefthanders, with an impressive 5.4 runs per game in those contests. Detroit?s rotation is still loaded with southpaws, and with all their success last year they did lose money here at Comerica (-$570). PREFERRED: Blue Jays vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Indians got the best of Chicago in head to head play last year, but the White Sox are a good home team at 49-32 and the Tribe struggled outside of Jacobs Field. They were only 11-22 (-$1225) vs. lefthanders on the road last year, so we?ll take a shot with Mark Buehrle, who always seems to get off to a fast start before fading in the second half. But stay away from him if C.C. Sabathia is on the mound (Sox -$1255 vs. lefties in ?06). PREFERRED: Buehrle unless opposed by Sabathia.
Boston at Kansas City (3) 2nd, 4th, 5th
As bad as the Royals were last year, they managed to post an enormous profit against righthanders (+$2635) despite a 49-64 record against them. They also beat the Bosox in head to head play (5-4, +$490) so they are worth a shot as an underdog when the visitor debuts their high priced import Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tremendous pressure on the Japanese ace, who may need a few outings to settle into his new circumstances. PREFERRED: Royals vs. Matsuzaka.
Oakland at Seattle (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The A?s can always be counted on for a solid second half, but they are notorious slow starters. We?d like to try our luck with the home team under the circumstances, but Seattle was only 2-17 (-$1620) in head to head play with Oakland last year. We?re going to have to sit this one out for now. PREFERRED: None.
Baltimore at Minnesota (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
We?re not big advocates of laying fat prices on favorites, especially this early in the year, but Johan Santana (+$1625, 2.77 ERA in 34 starts overall) looks too good to pass up. Incredibly, the Twins were a perfect 17-0 in the games he started here at the Metrodome. The Orioles meanwhile, posted a 5-21 record on the road vs. lefthanders (-$1610), so how can we possibly refuse? PREFERRED: J. Santana.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Rangers still have plenty of pop in the lineup and they posted solid numbers on the road, particularly vs. righthanders in night games (25-17, +$1130 with 5.7 runs per game). The Angels lost money at home in 2006 (-$305) so we?ll take a shot vs. the all-righty LA rotation. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. righthanders in night games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 3
San Diego at San Francisco (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Giants finished far behind the Padres in the NL West last year, but they managed to win 12 of 19 in head to head meetings (+$530) and they?d added a high priced free-agent lefty in Barry Zito who matches up well with SD (Padres 6-11, -$480 on the road vs. southpaws). But when you look at San Diego?s road record against righthanders (+$1835 with 5.4 runs per game), it?s hard to pass them up in this one. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Padres/Padres vs. righthanders.
