BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 27
N.Y. Mets at Washington (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Mets are clicking right now, with the lowest team ERA in the NL (2.47) and the highest team BA (.299). Now they get to spend the weekend beating up on arguably the worst team in baseball. But despite their pitiful 6-13 record, the Nationals are actually a little bit ahead moneywise (+$35), so caution is advised. Tom Glavine (3.07 ERA) and Oliver Perez (3.31) look like the best value, given that Washington averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties. The Mets are 7-2 (+$515) on the road so far. BEST BET: Glavine/Ol. Perez.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Pirates three game sweep of the Astros to open the season is now a distant memory, with the team having lost 10 of 14 since that time. The Reds are getting some quality pitching early in the year (3.60 team ERA) but they?ve struggled against lefthanders, something they?ll probably see quite a bit of from the Pittsburgh rotation. But they?ve done well vs. righthanders in road games (+$660 in ?06, 2-1, +$165 so far in ?07) and they might catch a nice underdog price against Ian Snell, who has looked pretty sharp in his first four outings on the year. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Marlins took 2 out of 3 early this month, but they?ve been in a tailspin as of late (3-8, -$595 last 10 days with a 6.91 ERA among starters) and they were consistently hammered by the Phillies last season (only 6-13, -$635). The Phillies seem to be coming around, taking 2 out of 3 at Cincinnati last weekend, and they?ve got a good thing going with their lefthanded tandem of Jamie Moyer (3.05) and Cole Hamels (2.57). It?s unlikely both will be on the hill, but at least one of them will (probably Hamels), and either one should fare well against a Florida team that is only 22-31 (-$720) vs. southpaws over the past two years. BEST BET: Moyer/Hamels.
Milwaukee at Houston (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Astros have recovered nicely from their shaky start (6-3, +$405 last 10 days) and they did a good job of handling the Brewers in 2006 (10-5, +$575). But Houston lost money at Minute Maid Park last year (-$800) and they are a disappointing 1-4 (-$420) vs. lefthanders so far this year. Chris Capuano continues to excel in April (+$400, 3.68) and he?ll be taking a turn this weekend. Milwaukee is hitting the ball well (.278 team BA, 2nd best in the league), so he looks like an excellent value. BEST BET: Capuano.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
When Carlos Zambrano gets on track, the Cubs could have on of the best rotations in the NL Central. The big righthander has been dreadful in his first four starts (-$285, 7.77 ERA) but the team has gotten outstanding work from Ted Lilly (2.42 ERA), Jason Marquis (1.87) and especially Rich Hill (+$300, 0.41 ERA in three starts). The Cardinals are having a real problem scoring runs right now (.227 team BA, worst in the league) and they?ve posted a miserable 1-6 mark at Busch Stadium so far (-$525). It looks like Marquis is the only sure starter this weekend, but if Lilly or Hill is available, we?ll certainly jump right in. BEST BET: Marquis.
Atlanta at Colorado (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Braves are off to a good start, but their hitting is weak (.239 team BA, 4th lowest in the league) and their pitching is thin once you get past Smoltz and Hudson. But the Rockies are fading fast in the NL West (4-7, -$325 last 11 days with only 3.2 runs per game and a 6.79 ERA among starters), so we look for Atlanta to continue their winning ways at least through the weekend. Hudson is not slated to take a turn, but John Smoltz will definitely see action. The price on the road team should be reasonable,and the Braves are 5-2 (+$325) as visitors so far. BEST BET: Smoltz.
San Francisco at Arizona (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
Things are looking up for the Giants following a pair of outstanding outings by big ticket free agent Barry Zito (no runs allowed in those starts). The Diamondbacks are fading after a strong first couple of weeks (3-8, -$620 last 11 days) and could have their hands full with the sizzling hot SF rotation. Another problem for the home team is that their run production has tapered off considerably (only 3.2 runs per game last 11), so the road team has an excellent chance of taking at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Giants in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Dodgers look exceptionally strong right now (13-6, +$950 overall), with outstanding pitching (2.87 team ERA) and the third best team BA in the NL (.270). The Padres got the best of them in head to head play last year, but LA took 2 out of 3 at Dodger Stadium earlier in April, and are well positioned to do at least that well this weekend. The Padres lost money vs. righthanders at Petco Park last year (-$910) and they?ll be taking on Brad Penny (+400, 1.37 ERA) and Brett Tomko (2.65), both of whom have looked very sharp in the early going. BEST BET: Penny/Tomko.
Boston at N.Y. Yankees (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The good news for the Yankees is that it appears they?ll get through the weekend without having to square off against Boston aces Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett. Chein Ming Wang is off the DL and will take a turn for the Bombers this weekend. But they?ve still got to deal with Matsuzaka (4.00 ERA) and with key members of the rotation sidelined they?ll be forced to go with at least one sub-par hurler in this key series. Kei Igawa might be worth a try; he?s looked good in his last two starts (3.18 ERA), and the Red Sox were a disappointing 10-19 (-$1380) vs. lefties on the road last year. But other than that, the visitor looks tempting. BEST BET: Matsuzaka/Igawa.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Orioles had a nice run at Camden Yards last weekend, running their record at home to 7-2 and grabbing 2nd last in the AL East in the process. But they haven?t had much success against lefthanders on the road (only 5-21, -$1620 in 2006), though they do catch a break in that C.C. Sabathia?s turn won?t come up this weekend. The Indians have had a rough stretch, but they play better at Jacobs Field, so take a shot with Jeremy Sowers, who flashed some decent form before getting slapped around the last time out. And keep an eye out for Cliff Lee, who is pitching rehab starts in the minors and should be rejoining the big club soon. BEST BET: Sowers.
Minnesota at Detroit (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Twins were expected to suffer a decline once Francisco Liriano went down for the year and when Brad Radke retired. But two time Cy Young winner Johan Santana continues to sparkle (3.00 ERA in four starts) and the early returns on Ramon Ortiz (+$350, 2.05) and Carlos Silva (+$200, 2.00) could not be better. The Tigers lost money vs. righthanders at Comerica last season (-$525) and are off to a similar start in 2007 (3-4, -$280 in that situation). Take the two hot Minnesota righthanders, both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: Silva/Ra.Ortiz.
Texas at Toronto (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Blue Jays are in a tailspin after getting swept by the lightly regarded Orioles at Camden Yards last weekend. The absence of closer B.J. Ryan has already led to several seemingly safe leads being blown, and none of their starters other than Halladay has been consistent. But the Rangers are reeling at this point (4-6, -$260 with a 6.39 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they check in here at the Rogers Centre with a 2-7 record in road games (-$465). We are tempted to go with Halladay and lay the high price, but Toronto?s bullpen woes are off-putting, so we?ll sit this one out for now and take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Chicago W. Sox (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Angels haven?t been scoring many runs, but despite the slow start the pitching is looking good (3.88 ERA) and the weekend sweep over the Mariners suggests that the worst may in fact be behind them. But we?d like to see them improve on that ugly 1-7 road record (-$590) before taking on a quality team like the White Sox here at US Cellular. Chicago took 6 of 9 from the Angels in 2006 (+$280) and they are more than holding their own in the highly competitive AL East. We?ll pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Seattle (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We expected better from the Mariners this year, but they?ve been lousy as of late (3-7, -$375 last 10 days with a 6.18 ERA among starters). They may still be suffering the ill effects of having so many games rained out, but they?ll need to fatten up on the lowly Royals if they hope to avoid falling from contention in the AL West. We?re inclined to try our luck with Gil Meche, who has performed very well since signing that fat free agent contract over the winter (2.22 ERA in four starts). We?ll take a shot with him as he confronts his old team for the first time. BEST BET: Meche.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We?d like to see the bats heat up, but we?re very high on the A?s right now. They have again weathered the loss of a key asset (Zito) and find themselves with the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL (2.98). The pitiful Devil Rays check in with a team ERA over three runs per game greater (6.02), and it?s hard to see how they salvage a single victory in this series. Perhaps they can scratch out enough offense to steal a win, so we?ll only go with the home team if the price is within a reasonable range. BEST BET: Athletics at -170 or less.
N.Y. Mets at Washington (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Mets are clicking right now, with the lowest team ERA in the NL (2.47) and the highest team BA (.299). Now they get to spend the weekend beating up on arguably the worst team in baseball. But despite their pitiful 6-13 record, the Nationals are actually a little bit ahead moneywise (+$35), so caution is advised. Tom Glavine (3.07 ERA) and Oliver Perez (3.31) look like the best value, given that Washington averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties. The Mets are 7-2 (+$515) on the road so far. BEST BET: Glavine/Ol. Perez.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Pirates three game sweep of the Astros to open the season is now a distant memory, with the team having lost 10 of 14 since that time. The Reds are getting some quality pitching early in the year (3.60 team ERA) but they?ve struggled against lefthanders, something they?ll probably see quite a bit of from the Pittsburgh rotation. But they?ve done well vs. righthanders in road games (+$660 in ?06, 2-1, +$165 so far in ?07) and they might catch a nice underdog price against Ian Snell, who has looked pretty sharp in his first four outings on the year. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Marlins took 2 out of 3 early this month, but they?ve been in a tailspin as of late (3-8, -$595 last 10 days with a 6.91 ERA among starters) and they were consistently hammered by the Phillies last season (only 6-13, -$635). The Phillies seem to be coming around, taking 2 out of 3 at Cincinnati last weekend, and they?ve got a good thing going with their lefthanded tandem of Jamie Moyer (3.05) and Cole Hamels (2.57). It?s unlikely both will be on the hill, but at least one of them will (probably Hamels), and either one should fare well against a Florida team that is only 22-31 (-$720) vs. southpaws over the past two years. BEST BET: Moyer/Hamels.
Milwaukee at Houston (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Astros have recovered nicely from their shaky start (6-3, +$405 last 10 days) and they did a good job of handling the Brewers in 2006 (10-5, +$575). But Houston lost money at Minute Maid Park last year (-$800) and they are a disappointing 1-4 (-$420) vs. lefthanders so far this year. Chris Capuano continues to excel in April (+$400, 3.68) and he?ll be taking a turn this weekend. Milwaukee is hitting the ball well (.278 team BA, 2nd best in the league), so he looks like an excellent value. BEST BET: Capuano.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
When Carlos Zambrano gets on track, the Cubs could have on of the best rotations in the NL Central. The big righthander has been dreadful in his first four starts (-$285, 7.77 ERA) but the team has gotten outstanding work from Ted Lilly (2.42 ERA), Jason Marquis (1.87) and especially Rich Hill (+$300, 0.41 ERA in three starts). The Cardinals are having a real problem scoring runs right now (.227 team BA, worst in the league) and they?ve posted a miserable 1-6 mark at Busch Stadium so far (-$525). It looks like Marquis is the only sure starter this weekend, but if Lilly or Hill is available, we?ll certainly jump right in. BEST BET: Marquis.
Atlanta at Colorado (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Braves are off to a good start, but their hitting is weak (.239 team BA, 4th lowest in the league) and their pitching is thin once you get past Smoltz and Hudson. But the Rockies are fading fast in the NL West (4-7, -$325 last 11 days with only 3.2 runs per game and a 6.79 ERA among starters), so we look for Atlanta to continue their winning ways at least through the weekend. Hudson is not slated to take a turn, but John Smoltz will definitely see action. The price on the road team should be reasonable,and the Braves are 5-2 (+$325) as visitors so far. BEST BET: Smoltz.
San Francisco at Arizona (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
Things are looking up for the Giants following a pair of outstanding outings by big ticket free agent Barry Zito (no runs allowed in those starts). The Diamondbacks are fading after a strong first couple of weeks (3-8, -$620 last 11 days) and could have their hands full with the sizzling hot SF rotation. Another problem for the home team is that their run production has tapered off considerably (only 3.2 runs per game last 11), so the road team has an excellent chance of taking at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Giants in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Dodgers look exceptionally strong right now (13-6, +$950 overall), with outstanding pitching (2.87 team ERA) and the third best team BA in the NL (.270). The Padres got the best of them in head to head play last year, but LA took 2 out of 3 at Dodger Stadium earlier in April, and are well positioned to do at least that well this weekend. The Padres lost money vs. righthanders at Petco Park last year (-$910) and they?ll be taking on Brad Penny (+400, 1.37 ERA) and Brett Tomko (2.65), both of whom have looked very sharp in the early going. BEST BET: Penny/Tomko.
Boston at N.Y. Yankees (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The good news for the Yankees is that it appears they?ll get through the weekend without having to square off against Boston aces Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett. Chein Ming Wang is off the DL and will take a turn for the Bombers this weekend. But they?ve still got to deal with Matsuzaka (4.00 ERA) and with key members of the rotation sidelined they?ll be forced to go with at least one sub-par hurler in this key series. Kei Igawa might be worth a try; he?s looked good in his last two starts (3.18 ERA), and the Red Sox were a disappointing 10-19 (-$1380) vs. lefties on the road last year. But other than that, the visitor looks tempting. BEST BET: Matsuzaka/Igawa.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Orioles had a nice run at Camden Yards last weekend, running their record at home to 7-2 and grabbing 2nd last in the AL East in the process. But they haven?t had much success against lefthanders on the road (only 5-21, -$1620 in 2006), though they do catch a break in that C.C. Sabathia?s turn won?t come up this weekend. The Indians have had a rough stretch, but they play better at Jacobs Field, so take a shot with Jeremy Sowers, who flashed some decent form before getting slapped around the last time out. And keep an eye out for Cliff Lee, who is pitching rehab starts in the minors and should be rejoining the big club soon. BEST BET: Sowers.
Minnesota at Detroit (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Twins were expected to suffer a decline once Francisco Liriano went down for the year and when Brad Radke retired. But two time Cy Young winner Johan Santana continues to sparkle (3.00 ERA in four starts) and the early returns on Ramon Ortiz (+$350, 2.05) and Carlos Silva (+$200, 2.00) could not be better. The Tigers lost money vs. righthanders at Comerica last season (-$525) and are off to a similar start in 2007 (3-4, -$280 in that situation). Take the two hot Minnesota righthanders, both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: Silva/Ra.Ortiz.
Texas at Toronto (4) 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th
The Blue Jays are in a tailspin after getting swept by the lightly regarded Orioles at Camden Yards last weekend. The absence of closer B.J. Ryan has already led to several seemingly safe leads being blown, and none of their starters other than Halladay has been consistent. But the Rangers are reeling at this point (4-6, -$260 with a 6.39 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they check in here at the Rogers Centre with a 2-7 record in road games (-$465). We are tempted to go with Halladay and lay the high price, but Toronto?s bullpen woes are off-putting, so we?ll sit this one out for now and take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Chicago W. Sox (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Angels haven?t been scoring many runs, but despite the slow start the pitching is looking good (3.88 ERA) and the weekend sweep over the Mariners suggests that the worst may in fact be behind them. But we?d like to see them improve on that ugly 1-7 road record (-$590) before taking on a quality team like the White Sox here at US Cellular. Chicago took 6 of 9 from the Angels in 2006 (+$280) and they are more than holding their own in the highly competitive AL East. We?ll pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Seattle (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We expected better from the Mariners this year, but they?ve been lousy as of late (3-7, -$375 last 10 days with a 6.18 ERA among starters). They may still be suffering the ill effects of having so many games rained out, but they?ll need to fatten up on the lowly Royals if they hope to avoid falling from contention in the AL West. We?re inclined to try our luck with Gil Meche, who has performed very well since signing that fat free agent contract over the winter (2.22 ERA in four starts). We?ll take a shot with him as he confronts his old team for the first time. BEST BET: Meche.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We?d like to see the bats heat up, but we?re very high on the A?s right now. They have again weathered the loss of a key asset (Zito) and find themselves with the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL (2.98). The pitiful Devil Rays check in with a team ERA over three runs per game greater (6.02), and it?s hard to see how they salvage a single victory in this series. Perhaps they can scratch out enough offense to steal a win, so we?ll only go with the home team if the price is within a reasonable range. BEST BET: Athletics at -170 or less.
