BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 3
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Pirates are off to a better than expected start in 2007, but Miller Park could prove to be a tough stop. The Brewers are atop the NL Central right now (15-9, +$660) and they are hitting the ball extremely well, especially against lefthanders (5.5 runs per game so far). Pittsburgh has the lowest team BA in the league (.236) and they?ve scored the fewest runs. Milwaukee swept a pair when these teams squared off earlier at PNC Park, and they should be able to build on that success vs. the southpaw heavy Pittsburgh rotation. BEST BET: Brewers vs. lefthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Arizona (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Diamondbacks started the season on a high note, and the pitching staff could be formidable if Randy Johnson ends up with something resembling is old form. But their offense is anemic (.238 team BA, 3rd lowest in the NL) and they are up against the team with the highest team BA (.292), and the lowest team ERA (2.87) in the National League. The Mets were a huge money-maker on the road in 2006, particularly vs. righthanders (+$1390), and they are 6-0 (+$640) vs. righties on the road in night games so far in ?07, averaging 7.7 runs per game in those contests. The Mets took 6 of 7 from Arizona last year (+$515) and they?ll get plenty of shots to improve on that number. BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders in night games.
Philadelphia at San Francisco (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Phillies had success against this team in 2006, but they don?t look particularly sharp so far (only 11-13, -$415 overall), while the Giants are rolling (7-3, +$485 last 10 games with a 3.15 ERA among starters). San Francisco has been doing the best against lefthanders (5-3, +$235 with 5.3 runs per game so far) and it looks like they?ll get a crack at both of the Phillies? lefthanded starters in the course of this four game series. Hamels and Moyer are both pitching well, so prices on the home team should stay pretty reasonable when they are on the hill. BEST BET: Giants vs. Moyer & Hamels.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 4
Washington at Chicago Cubs (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs are still have not hit their stride, but they are putting up some good numbers statistically (.271 team BA, 3.61 team ERA) so we expect to see them improve their standing the not too distant future. The Nationals are dreadful (8-17 overall with a .238 team BA and a 4.93 ERA, near worst in both categories), but because of the high lines their money losses are minimal. They?ll be fortunate to salvage a single victory, but only get involved if the price is reasonable. BEST BET: Cubs at -165 or less.
San Diego at Florida (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The San Diego pitching could be better, but they?ve got nothing to complain about where Jake Peavy is concerned (+$305, 1.67 ERA in five starts), The righthander notched 16 strikeouts in his last outing, and will be an excellent value here at Dolphin Stadium. And given the Padres success vs. southpaws (+$250 as a visitor with 6.9 runs per game), they should fare well when Willis (5.60 ERA) and Olsen (6.23) take their turns. BEST BET: Peavy/Padres vs. Willis & Olsen.
Colorado at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Reds aren?t doing as well as we think they should be, but we like the righthanders in their rotation (3.79 team ERA) and they should fare well against a Colorado team that is only averaging 4.0 runs per game vs. righties in 2007. Cincinnati dominated head to head play between these ballclubs last season (5-1, +$395), and are they are 8-6 (+$200) vs. righthanders this year. The Rockies are only 4-8 as visitors so far. BEST BET: Reds when righty meets righty.
L.A. Dodgers at Atlanta (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs in the National League (3.30 team ERA) and they?ve been steady money-makers on the road (9-4, +$545). Unfortunately, the Braves check in with a 9-2 (+$540) record vs. righthanders, averaging 6.3 runs per game in those contests. They are less successful vs. lefties
(-$260 overall), but Mark Hendrickson, LA?s most effective southpaw, won?t take a turn this weekend. That leaves Randy Wolf, who?s only worth a shot if the price is right. BEST BET: Wolf at +125 or better.
Houston at St. Louis (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
These teams are both under-performing right now, with similar won/lost records and almost identical stats (Cards 4.06 ERA, .249 team BA . . . Astros 4.05 ERA, .246 BA). St. Louis is only 3-9 here at Busch Stadium this year (-$850) but Jason Jennings remains on the DL and Houston staff ace Roy Oswalt is not slated to appear. With nothing particularly noteworthy to point to, we?ll stay away from this series for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at N.Y. Yankees (4) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
The Yankees have scored the most runs of any team in the AL, but with a starting rotation in disarray (8.18 ERA last 11 games) and an overworked bullpen, they find themselves with a the worst record in the AL East (9-14, -$1235). Luckily, they?ll he hosting a Seattle team whose pitching is in even worse shape (5.07 overall team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). But it looks like Felix Hernandez (1.56 ERA in three starts) might be off the DL and available for action this weekend. If he is, he?ll be an attractive underdog vs. the overpriced Yankees. Jump in if he goes. BEST BET: F. Hernandez.
Cleveland at Baltimore (4) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
The Tribe took 2 out of 3 in Camden Yards last weekend, finishing the month of April with a 14-8 record (+$620) and a grip on first place in the AL Central. Not bad considering they rank near the bottom statistically both in pitching (4.37 ERA) and on offense (.244 team BA). They?ve been bad vs. lefties, but that 12-3 record vs. righthanders is going to he hard to pass up when they take on former Indian Jaret Wright (-$300, 6.97 ERA) in a rematch of last Sunday?s contest. And since they are the visiting team, the price should be a bargain. BEST BET: Indians vs. Jr. Wright.
Oakland at Tampa Bay (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Devil Rays stole a pair at McAfee Stadium last weekend, but they?ll have a hard time repeating that vs. a superior Oakland team. Tampa Bay can score runs, but their pitching is sorrowful (6.14 team ERA, worst in the majors by nearly one full run), and they?ll be up against the best pitching team in the league (A?s 3.08 ERA, over three runs per game less than the visitor). Oakand hasn?t kicked into high gear yet, but they have enough weapons to take at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Toronto at Texas (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Rangers took 4 of 6 from this team in 2006 (+$200) and grabbed 2 out of the first 3 they played at Rogers Centre last weekend. The Blue Jays are only 7-9 vs. righthanders in 2007 (-$290) and they?ll be taking on a Texas rotation that is without lefthanders. The problem is that Texas?s rotation is lousy (5.27 team ERA), so it?s hard to back them with enthusiasm, especially here at Arlington where prices are likely to be inflated. BEST BET: None.
Detroit at Kansas City (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Tigers dominated the hapless Royals in 2006 (14-4, +$430 in head to head play), and they?ve taken 4 of the first 6 this year. KC is still winless against lefthanders (0-6, -$600 with 4.0 runs per game) and the Tigers continue to rack up profits in the role of visitor (+$335 so far in ?07, +$1700 in 2006). The Royals won?t have to deal with Nate Robertson, but Mike Maroth is on deck, looking to fatten his +$455 profit margin at KC?s expense. BEST BET: Maroth.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Red Sox completed the first month of the 2007 campaign with the best record in baseball (16-8, +$690), and if their mound corps continues to excel (3.25 team ERA), the Yankees and the rest of the AL East will be scrambling for a shot at the wildcard very soon. Minnesota was a tough stop for this team last year (only 1-5, -$455), but they?ve posted a 5-1 mark vs. lefthanders so far (+$365 with 6.3 runs per game), which makes them a tempting underdog when Johan Santana is on the hill. The Cy Young ace has been unspectacular so far (-$310, 3.60 ERA), so take a shot with the hot visitor before he regains his top form. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. J. Santana.
Chicago W. Sox at L.A. Angels (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Angels have been heating up in recent days, their starting rotation having been solidified by the return to health of Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver (3.83 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the league). They took 2 out of 3 from the White Sox at US Cellular last weekend, and they check in here with an 11-3 record at home (+$680). Chicago is struggling at the plate (.229 team BA, 2nd worst in the AL) while LA has a team BA considerably higher (.271). Could be a long weekend on the west coast for the visitor. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Pirates are off to a better than expected start in 2007, but Miller Park could prove to be a tough stop. The Brewers are atop the NL Central right now (15-9, +$660) and they are hitting the ball extremely well, especially against lefthanders (5.5 runs per game so far). Pittsburgh has the lowest team BA in the league (.236) and they?ve scored the fewest runs. Milwaukee swept a pair when these teams squared off earlier at PNC Park, and they should be able to build on that success vs. the southpaw heavy Pittsburgh rotation. BEST BET: Brewers vs. lefthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Arizona (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Diamondbacks started the season on a high note, and the pitching staff could be formidable if Randy Johnson ends up with something resembling is old form. But their offense is anemic (.238 team BA, 3rd lowest in the NL) and they are up against the team with the highest team BA (.292), and the lowest team ERA (2.87) in the National League. The Mets were a huge money-maker on the road in 2006, particularly vs. righthanders (+$1390), and they are 6-0 (+$640) vs. righties on the road in night games so far in ?07, averaging 7.7 runs per game in those contests. The Mets took 6 of 7 from Arizona last year (+$515) and they?ll get plenty of shots to improve on that number. BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders in night games.
Philadelphia at San Francisco (4) 3rd,4th, 5th, 6th
The Phillies had success against this team in 2006, but they don?t look particularly sharp so far (only 11-13, -$415 overall), while the Giants are rolling (7-3, +$485 last 10 games with a 3.15 ERA among starters). San Francisco has been doing the best against lefthanders (5-3, +$235 with 5.3 runs per game so far) and it looks like they?ll get a crack at both of the Phillies? lefthanded starters in the course of this four game series. Hamels and Moyer are both pitching well, so prices on the home team should stay pretty reasonable when they are on the hill. BEST BET: Giants vs. Moyer & Hamels.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 4
Washington at Chicago Cubs (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs are still have not hit their stride, but they are putting up some good numbers statistically (.271 team BA, 3.61 team ERA) so we expect to see them improve their standing the not too distant future. The Nationals are dreadful (8-17 overall with a .238 team BA and a 4.93 ERA, near worst in both categories), but because of the high lines their money losses are minimal. They?ll be fortunate to salvage a single victory, but only get involved if the price is reasonable. BEST BET: Cubs at -165 or less.
San Diego at Florida (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The San Diego pitching could be better, but they?ve got nothing to complain about where Jake Peavy is concerned (+$305, 1.67 ERA in five starts), The righthander notched 16 strikeouts in his last outing, and will be an excellent value here at Dolphin Stadium. And given the Padres success vs. southpaws (+$250 as a visitor with 6.9 runs per game), they should fare well when Willis (5.60 ERA) and Olsen (6.23) take their turns. BEST BET: Peavy/Padres vs. Willis & Olsen.
Colorado at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Reds aren?t doing as well as we think they should be, but we like the righthanders in their rotation (3.79 team ERA) and they should fare well against a Colorado team that is only averaging 4.0 runs per game vs. righties in 2007. Cincinnati dominated head to head play between these ballclubs last season (5-1, +$395), and are they are 8-6 (+$200) vs. righthanders this year. The Rockies are only 4-8 as visitors so far. BEST BET: Reds when righty meets righty.
L.A. Dodgers at Atlanta (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs in the National League (3.30 team ERA) and they?ve been steady money-makers on the road (9-4, +$545). Unfortunately, the Braves check in with a 9-2 (+$540) record vs. righthanders, averaging 6.3 runs per game in those contests. They are less successful vs. lefties
(-$260 overall), but Mark Hendrickson, LA?s most effective southpaw, won?t take a turn this weekend. That leaves Randy Wolf, who?s only worth a shot if the price is right. BEST BET: Wolf at +125 or better.
Houston at St. Louis (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
These teams are both under-performing right now, with similar won/lost records and almost identical stats (Cards 4.06 ERA, .249 team BA . . . Astros 4.05 ERA, .246 BA). St. Louis is only 3-9 here at Busch Stadium this year (-$850) but Jason Jennings remains on the DL and Houston staff ace Roy Oswalt is not slated to appear. With nothing particularly noteworthy to point to, we?ll stay away from this series for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at N.Y. Yankees (4) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
The Yankees have scored the most runs of any team in the AL, but with a starting rotation in disarray (8.18 ERA last 11 games) and an overworked bullpen, they find themselves with a the worst record in the AL East (9-14, -$1235). Luckily, they?ll he hosting a Seattle team whose pitching is in even worse shape (5.07 overall team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). But it looks like Felix Hernandez (1.56 ERA in three starts) might be off the DL and available for action this weekend. If he is, he?ll be an attractive underdog vs. the overpriced Yankees. Jump in if he goes. BEST BET: F. Hernandez.
Cleveland at Baltimore (4) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
The Tribe took 2 out of 3 in Camden Yards last weekend, finishing the month of April with a 14-8 record (+$620) and a grip on first place in the AL Central. Not bad considering they rank near the bottom statistically both in pitching (4.37 ERA) and on offense (.244 team BA). They?ve been bad vs. lefties, but that 12-3 record vs. righthanders is going to he hard to pass up when they take on former Indian Jaret Wright (-$300, 6.97 ERA) in a rematch of last Sunday?s contest. And since they are the visiting team, the price should be a bargain. BEST BET: Indians vs. Jr. Wright.
Oakland at Tampa Bay (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Devil Rays stole a pair at McAfee Stadium last weekend, but they?ll have a hard time repeating that vs. a superior Oakland team. Tampa Bay can score runs, but their pitching is sorrowful (6.14 team ERA, worst in the majors by nearly one full run), and they?ll be up against the best pitching team in the league (A?s 3.08 ERA, over three runs per game less than the visitor). Oakand hasn?t kicked into high gear yet, but they have enough weapons to take at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Toronto at Texas (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Rangers took 4 of 6 from this team in 2006 (+$200) and grabbed 2 out of the first 3 they played at Rogers Centre last weekend. The Blue Jays are only 7-9 vs. righthanders in 2007 (-$290) and they?ll be taking on a Texas rotation that is without lefthanders. The problem is that Texas?s rotation is lousy (5.27 team ERA), so it?s hard to back them with enthusiasm, especially here at Arlington where prices are likely to be inflated. BEST BET: None.
Detroit at Kansas City (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Tigers dominated the hapless Royals in 2006 (14-4, +$430 in head to head play), and they?ve taken 4 of the first 6 this year. KC is still winless against lefthanders (0-6, -$600 with 4.0 runs per game) and the Tigers continue to rack up profits in the role of visitor (+$335 so far in ?07, +$1700 in 2006). The Royals won?t have to deal with Nate Robertson, but Mike Maroth is on deck, looking to fatten his +$455 profit margin at KC?s expense. BEST BET: Maroth.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Red Sox completed the first month of the 2007 campaign with the best record in baseball (16-8, +$690), and if their mound corps continues to excel (3.25 team ERA), the Yankees and the rest of the AL East will be scrambling for a shot at the wildcard very soon. Minnesota was a tough stop for this team last year (only 1-5, -$455), but they?ve posted a 5-1 mark vs. lefthanders so far (+$365 with 6.3 runs per game), which makes them a tempting underdog when Johan Santana is on the hill. The Cy Young ace has been unspectacular so far (-$310, 3.60 ERA), so take a shot with the hot visitor before he regains his top form. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. J. Santana.
Chicago W. Sox at L.A. Angels (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Angels have been heating up in recent days, their starting rotation having been solidified by the return to health of Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver (3.83 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the league). They took 2 out of 3 from the White Sox at US Cellular last weekend, and they check in here with an 11-3 record at home (+$680). Chicago is struggling at the plate (.229 team BA, 2nd worst in the AL) while LA has a team BA considerably higher (.271). Could be a long weekend on the west coast for the visitor. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
