BASEBALL
BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 2
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Cubs bear little resemblance to the club that ran away with the NL Central in 2008. They are under .500 heading into July, as their money losses continue to mount (-$1045). The Brewers are holding up reasonably well (40-35 overall), but their pitching looks suspect (4.47 team ERA, 5th worst in the league), so we?ll limit ourselves to a play against Ted Lilly. Milwaukee has turned a tidy profit vs. lefthanders outside of Miller Park (+$500) and they should catch a fat price at Wrigley Field. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Lilly.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Things keep getting bleaker in Kansas City, as the Royals continue to flounder (3-7, -$380 in the last 10 days with only 3.4 runs per game and a 6.81 ERA among starters). The White Sox have been moving up in the AL Central standings (6-4, +$275 last 10 days) and they can get above .500 if they perform well at Kaufman Stadium. KC has been dreadful in day games (only 10-17, -$695) so we?ll back the visitor on Saturday & Sunday, games in which Zach Greinke is not expected to appear. BEST BET: White Sox in day games.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Orioles dropped a pair of games to the Angels earlier (-$255) but they?ve been on a roll in recent days (6-4, +$300 last 10) so they could provide some excellent value in certain matchups. LA?s pitching staff is still a mess (4.61 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL) and they?ve lost money vs. lefthanders in this ballpark (-$380). Rich Hill has an inflated ERA, but he?s led Baltimore to victories in six of his eight starts this year (+$505). He?ll no doubt catch a huge price as a road underdog, so he?s worth a shot. BEST BET: R. Hill.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 3
Pittsburgh at Florida (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Pirates have played very well at PNC Park, but when they venture outside their own backyard the results have not been pretty (only 14-26, -$495). With the Mets and Phillies struggling, the Marlins have climbed back to .500 and into the playoff picture (6-4, +$360 last 10 days with a 3.14 ERA among starters), and their numbers against lefthanders have been sensational (18-10, +$970 with 5.2 runs per game). Both Paul Maholm and Zach Duke are likely to see action, so Florida will get a couple of opportunities to improve on those numbers. BEST BET: Marlins vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Washington (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Braves may not be as bad as Washington, but they are not a very good baseball team at this point, and they?ve been an utter disaster against righthanded pitching this season (only 21.29, -$1365 with 3.5 runs per game). We?d consider taking the Nationals if we can avoid the quality pitchers Atlanta does have. But when you look at that pitiful 6-27 (-$1905) record within the division, you quickly develop second thoughts. We?ll proceed with caution at this point. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
This NL East pairing has developed into an intense rivalry over the past couple of years, with the Mets holding a narrow 4-3 edge in head to head play this season (+$100). The Phillies spent June getting slaughtered in inter-league play (6-12, -$805 overall) and their team ERA is 2nd worst in the NL (4.81). The Mets are perhaps the single most injury plagued team in MLB and they?ve declined steadily in the standings as a consequence. But they may have come up with a quality arm in Fernando Nieve, who?s looked outstanding in his first three starts (+$385 with a 1.45 ERA). He?ll be hard to pass up at Citizens Bank, given Philadelphia?s pathetic 5-16 record vs. righthanders in home games (-$1780). BEST BET: Nieve.
St. Louis at Cincinnati (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
Two division rivals with all-righty rotations square off at Great American Ballpark this weekend. The Cardinals have lost money to the Reds in head to head play (-$145), but with Edinson Volquez expected to remain out of action indefinitely, Cincinnati looks a little too thin to mount a serious challenge in the NL Central. With a healthy Chris Carpenter leading the way, St. Louis is among the league?s elite in team ERA (3.86). When the Cardinals? ace in on the hill this weekend, we?ll be on board. BEST BET: Carpenter.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Rockies have staged a remarkable turnaround, winning 20 of their last 23 and propelling themselves squarely into the NL playoff picture. They?ve been hitting well (5.2 runs per game in 209) and they have one of the league?s top righthanders in Aaron Cook, who?s been sensational over the past several weeks (1.20 ERA last two). Ubaldo Jimenez checks in with a 3.83 ERA in his 15 starts and and will be on the mound at Coors Field this weekend along with Cook. The Diamondbacks are only 22-32 vs. righthanders (-$1125) and will be hard pressed to salvage a win. BEST BET: Cook/Jimenez.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Dodgers have dominated the Padres in head to head play this year (7-3, +$225) and while San Diego does have a winning record at Petco Park, we?ll stick with the NL?s best club (LA 2.76 team BA, 3.68 ERA, best in the league in both departments). They?ve made money on the road as well as at home (+$775) and should dispatch the inferior Padres without difficulty (SD .237 BA, 4.75 ERA). BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Houston at San Francisco (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Astros are traditionally a strong 2nd half club and they?ve been looking better in recent days (6-4, +$275 with a 3.28 ERA among starters). But we love the SF pitching rotation (3.71 team ERA) and we like their chances here at ATT Park, where they check in with a 24-12 record (+$1100). Despite the 3rd best team ERA in the NL (.268), Houston is averaging a mere 4.1 runs per game in 2009. Stay away from Jonathan Sanchez (-$635, 5.62 ERA in 13 starts), but the rest of the home team?s rotation is definitely worth a shot. BEST BET: All Giant starters except J. Sanchez.
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays earlier this year (+$100) and are coming off a five game winning streak. They?ve been getting solid work from their starting staff (2.85 ERA last 10) and they?ve put together a 13-7 record vs. lefthanders (+$240 with 5.8 runs per game). Toronto is proving to be a tenacious squad in 2009 that scores plenty of runs (5.1 per game) but the lefthanders in their rotation should be no match for the hard hitting Yankees here in the Bronx. BEST BET: Yankees vs. lefthanders.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Indians can score runs, particularly against lefthanders (6.1 per game) but their woeful pitching has them mired in last place in the AL Central. They?ve lost a fortune in 2009 (-$1790) so we?re inclined to steer clear in this series, even though the Athletics have problems of their own (-$1075 overall). We?ll take a closer look at this series as game day draws near. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at Boston (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Mariners took 2 out of 3 from the Bosox at Safeco Field (+$175) and they?ve proved capable of beating quality teams on the road (took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers in LA last weekend). They have the best team ERA in the AL (3.65) and they?ve looked very sharp in recent days (7-3, +$440 last 10). It?s very hard to go against the Red Sox here at Fenway (25-10, +$965) but their starting rotation has been inconsistent, If the price is high enough, we?ll take a shot on the visitor in this series. BEST BET: Mariners at +150 or better.
Tampa Bay at Texas (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Rays appeared to be fading from the AL East picture, but they?ve bounced back over the past month, and now are only five games back in this competitive division (.277 team BA, 4.24 team ERA, among the league?s best in both categories). The Rangers have had a fine year, but they?ve fallen from first place in the AL West (3-7, -$540 last 10 days) and could be vulnerable vs. Matt Garza, who has lowered his ERA to 3.61 in 15 starts this year. Texas averages 4.7 runs per game vs. righthanders. BEST BET: Garza.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Twins have pulled themselves above .500 and are poised to make a run at the first place Tigers in the AL Central, a team they?ve already beaten in 4 of their 5 head to head meetings (+$310). They?ve been deadly here at the Metrodome (24-15, +$550) and staff ace Nick Blackburn (3.11 ERA in 15 starts) is scheduled to take a turn. Detroit has gotten the most from a roster that still has a number of question marks, but they?ve lost money on the road vs. righthanders in night games (6-13, -$750 with only 3.3 runs per game). We don?t like their chances at Minnesota in this series. BEST BET: Blackburn/Righthanders vs. the Tigers in night games.
BEGINNING MONDAY JULY 6
Cincinnati at Philadelphia (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Phillies are playing poorly (3-7, -$565 last 10 days) and there is nothing in their performance here at Citizens Bank that recommends them vs. Cincinnati?s all-righty rotation (5-16, -$1780 vs. righties at home). Johnny Cueto (2.86 ERA in 15 starts) and Aaron Harang (3.95 in 16 starts) are both likely to see action. We also like the Reds anytime Philly sends a southpaw to the hill (+$480 vs. lefties on the road). PREFERRED: Cueto/Harang/Reds vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Braves have had their difficulties this year, but the Cubs are not all that good and they tend to be overpriced here at Wrigley Field. They?ve fared poorly in night games (15-21, -$885), and Atlanta checks in with a solid record vs. lefthanders, averaging 5.4 runs per game. So take a shot vs. Ted Lilly at what figures to be an attractive underdog price. PREFERRED: Braves in night games & vs. Lilly.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Pirates have already dropped 6 of 9 to the Astros in head to head play (-$340) and they?ve been dreadful on the road all season (only 14-26, -$495). Houston has done its best work in day games this year (+$615) so we?ll lay the price in Wednesday?s afternoon contest. PREFERRED: Astros in day games.
Washington at Colorado (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Nationals will be huge underdogs at Coors Field, but the Rockies should win these games no matter what the price. Washington has lost a fortune already this year (-$2390 overall) and they?ve only won eight road games all year. Colorado is the hottest team in baseball and it will be astonishing if they don?t win at least 2 of 3. PREFERRED: Rockies in all games.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Padres have been dreadful outside of Petco Park (12-26, -$890) but we don?t think the Diamondbacks can take advantage. Arizona has lost a fortune here at Chase Field (-$1940) so we?ll stay away from this lackluster affair. PREFERRED: None.
Florida at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Giants are a sensational home team (24-12, +$1100) but the Marlins are looking good these days and they?ve been too effective vs. lefthanders to use any of the SF southpaws. But Florida is a big money-burner vs. righthanders (-$830) so we?ll play this series accordingly. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Marlins.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Tigers won 4 of the first 6 meetings between these clubs (+$210) and they?ve been playing very well (8-2, +$585 last 10 days) so it?s not likely we?ll be using the Royals here at Comerica. KC has lost money on the road (-$640) while Detroit is a big money-maker in this ballpark (+$920). But stay away from Zack Greinke, who continues to outpace every pitcher in baseball en route to Cy Young honors. PREFERRED: Tigers unless opposed by Greinke.
Oakland at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
This looks like it has the makings of a mismatch, given Boston?s outstanding record at Fenway (25-10, +$955) and Oakland?s disappointing 14-23 road mark (14-23, -$520 so far in 2009). But prices will be very high so only get involved if the number is reasonable. PREFERRED: Red Sox at -165 or less.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The battle for first place in the AL West is very tight, but the Angels are winless against the Rangers in 2009, dropping a three game set earlier in the year (-$315). Texas is a formidable 10-5 vs. righties in night games on the road (+$815) and they?ll no doubt catch a nice price when that situation comes up here in Anaheim. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at Seattle (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles lost 4 of 6 to the Mariners in two earlier series (-$245) and the home team continues to look very sharp (7-3, +$440 last 10 days). They have a real chance to capture the AL West title if their pitching holds up, while the Orioles will need a miracle just to climb to .500. PREFERRED: Mariners in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JULY 7
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets are in the doldrums (4-7, -$310 last 11 days with only 3.5 runs per game) as injuries and the resulting lack of offense takes its toll. The Dodgers just keep on rolling (+$1560 overall) but they?ll need to keep winning if they hope to hold off the hard charging Rockies and GIants. Their pitching staff (3.86 ERA) should hold the NY bats in check. PREFERRED: Dodgers in all games.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams are in a tight race atop the NL Central, but it?s the Cardinals? superior mound corps (3.86 ERA vs. Milwaukee?s 4.47) that will ultimately decide the division in favor of St. Louis. Watch out for Yovani Gallardo (+$380, 2.86 ERA in his 15 starts this year) but the rest of the Brewers? rotation is fair game. PREFERRED: Cardinals unless opposed by Gallardo.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams met for the first time this season at Rogers Centre last week. Both are hanging tough in the competitive AL East but we like the Rays vs. righthanders in night games. Tampa Bay is 16-5 in that situation here at Tropicana Field (+$885 with 7.2 runs per game) and the Blue Jays are too tough in day games (+$430 overall). PREFERRED: Rays vs. righthanders in night games.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The White Sox lost 4 of 6 in earlier head to head play (-$210) but they?ve looked very solid in recent days (6-4, +$275 last 10 with a 3.33 ERA among starters while averaging 5.8 runs per game). The Indians continue to be plagued by the worst pitching staff in the league (5.23 ERA). PREFERRED: White Sox in all games.
N.Y. Yankees at Minnesota (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yanks swept a 4 game set in New York (+$400) but Minnesota is a very imposing team here in the Metrodome, particularly vs. lefties (9-1, +$815 at night). We?ll go against the Yankees if that situation arises. PREFERRED: Twins vs. lefthanders in night games.
BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 2
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Cubs bear little resemblance to the club that ran away with the NL Central in 2008. They are under .500 heading into July, as their money losses continue to mount (-$1045). The Brewers are holding up reasonably well (40-35 overall), but their pitching looks suspect (4.47 team ERA, 5th worst in the league), so we?ll limit ourselves to a play against Ted Lilly. Milwaukee has turned a tidy profit vs. lefthanders outside of Miller Park (+$500) and they should catch a fat price at Wrigley Field. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Lilly.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Things keep getting bleaker in Kansas City, as the Royals continue to flounder (3-7, -$380 in the last 10 days with only 3.4 runs per game and a 6.81 ERA among starters). The White Sox have been moving up in the AL Central standings (6-4, +$275 last 10 days) and they can get above .500 if they perform well at Kaufman Stadium. KC has been dreadful in day games (only 10-17, -$695) so we?ll back the visitor on Saturday & Sunday, games in which Zach Greinke is not expected to appear. BEST BET: White Sox in day games.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (4) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Orioles dropped a pair of games to the Angels earlier (-$255) but they?ve been on a roll in recent days (6-4, +$300 last 10) so they could provide some excellent value in certain matchups. LA?s pitching staff is still a mess (4.61 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL) and they?ve lost money vs. lefthanders in this ballpark (-$380). Rich Hill has an inflated ERA, but he?s led Baltimore to victories in six of his eight starts this year (+$505). He?ll no doubt catch a huge price as a road underdog, so he?s worth a shot. BEST BET: R. Hill.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 3
Pittsburgh at Florida (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Pirates have played very well at PNC Park, but when they venture outside their own backyard the results have not been pretty (only 14-26, -$495). With the Mets and Phillies struggling, the Marlins have climbed back to .500 and into the playoff picture (6-4, +$360 last 10 days with a 3.14 ERA among starters), and their numbers against lefthanders have been sensational (18-10, +$970 with 5.2 runs per game). Both Paul Maholm and Zach Duke are likely to see action, so Florida will get a couple of opportunities to improve on those numbers. BEST BET: Marlins vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Washington (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Braves may not be as bad as Washington, but they are not a very good baseball team at this point, and they?ve been an utter disaster against righthanded pitching this season (only 21.29, -$1365 with 3.5 runs per game). We?d consider taking the Nationals if we can avoid the quality pitchers Atlanta does have. But when you look at that pitiful 6-27 (-$1905) record within the division, you quickly develop second thoughts. We?ll proceed with caution at this point. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
This NL East pairing has developed into an intense rivalry over the past couple of years, with the Mets holding a narrow 4-3 edge in head to head play this season (+$100). The Phillies spent June getting slaughtered in inter-league play (6-12, -$805 overall) and their team ERA is 2nd worst in the NL (4.81). The Mets are perhaps the single most injury plagued team in MLB and they?ve declined steadily in the standings as a consequence. But they may have come up with a quality arm in Fernando Nieve, who?s looked outstanding in his first three starts (+$385 with a 1.45 ERA). He?ll be hard to pass up at Citizens Bank, given Philadelphia?s pathetic 5-16 record vs. righthanders in home games (-$1780). BEST BET: Nieve.
St. Louis at Cincinnati (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
Two division rivals with all-righty rotations square off at Great American Ballpark this weekend. The Cardinals have lost money to the Reds in head to head play (-$145), but with Edinson Volquez expected to remain out of action indefinitely, Cincinnati looks a little too thin to mount a serious challenge in the NL Central. With a healthy Chris Carpenter leading the way, St. Louis is among the league?s elite in team ERA (3.86). When the Cardinals? ace in on the hill this weekend, we?ll be on board. BEST BET: Carpenter.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Rockies have staged a remarkable turnaround, winning 20 of their last 23 and propelling themselves squarely into the NL playoff picture. They?ve been hitting well (5.2 runs per game in 209) and they have one of the league?s top righthanders in Aaron Cook, who?s been sensational over the past several weeks (1.20 ERA last two). Ubaldo Jimenez checks in with a 3.83 ERA in his 15 starts and and will be on the mound at Coors Field this weekend along with Cook. The Diamondbacks are only 22-32 vs. righthanders (-$1125) and will be hard pressed to salvage a win. BEST BET: Cook/Jimenez.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Dodgers have dominated the Padres in head to head play this year (7-3, +$225) and while San Diego does have a winning record at Petco Park, we?ll stick with the NL?s best club (LA 2.76 team BA, 3.68 ERA, best in the league in both departments). They?ve made money on the road as well as at home (+$775) and should dispatch the inferior Padres without difficulty (SD .237 BA, 4.75 ERA). BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Houston at San Francisco (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Astros are traditionally a strong 2nd half club and they?ve been looking better in recent days (6-4, +$275 with a 3.28 ERA among starters). But we love the SF pitching rotation (3.71 team ERA) and we like their chances here at ATT Park, where they check in with a 24-12 record (+$1100). Despite the 3rd best team ERA in the NL (.268), Houston is averaging a mere 4.1 runs per game in 2009. Stay away from Jonathan Sanchez (-$635, 5.62 ERA in 13 starts), but the rest of the home team?s rotation is definitely worth a shot. BEST BET: All Giant starters except J. Sanchez.
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays earlier this year (+$100) and are coming off a five game winning streak. They?ve been getting solid work from their starting staff (2.85 ERA last 10) and they?ve put together a 13-7 record vs. lefthanders (+$240 with 5.8 runs per game). Toronto is proving to be a tenacious squad in 2009 that scores plenty of runs (5.1 per game) but the lefthanders in their rotation should be no match for the hard hitting Yankees here in the Bronx. BEST BET: Yankees vs. lefthanders.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Indians can score runs, particularly against lefthanders (6.1 per game) but their woeful pitching has them mired in last place in the AL Central. They?ve lost a fortune in 2009 (-$1790) so we?re inclined to steer clear in this series, even though the Athletics have problems of their own (-$1075 overall). We?ll take a closer look at this series as game day draws near. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at Boston (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Mariners took 2 out of 3 from the Bosox at Safeco Field (+$175) and they?ve proved capable of beating quality teams on the road (took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers in LA last weekend). They have the best team ERA in the AL (3.65) and they?ve looked very sharp in recent days (7-3, +$440 last 10). It?s very hard to go against the Red Sox here at Fenway (25-10, +$965) but their starting rotation has been inconsistent, If the price is high enough, we?ll take a shot on the visitor in this series. BEST BET: Mariners at +150 or better.
Tampa Bay at Texas (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Rays appeared to be fading from the AL East picture, but they?ve bounced back over the past month, and now are only five games back in this competitive division (.277 team BA, 4.24 team ERA, among the league?s best in both categories). The Rangers have had a fine year, but they?ve fallen from first place in the AL West (3-7, -$540 last 10 days) and could be vulnerable vs. Matt Garza, who has lowered his ERA to 3.61 in 15 starts this year. Texas averages 4.7 runs per game vs. righthanders. BEST BET: Garza.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Twins have pulled themselves above .500 and are poised to make a run at the first place Tigers in the AL Central, a team they?ve already beaten in 4 of their 5 head to head meetings (+$310). They?ve been deadly here at the Metrodome (24-15, +$550) and staff ace Nick Blackburn (3.11 ERA in 15 starts) is scheduled to take a turn. Detroit has gotten the most from a roster that still has a number of question marks, but they?ve lost money on the road vs. righthanders in night games (6-13, -$750 with only 3.3 runs per game). We don?t like their chances at Minnesota in this series. BEST BET: Blackburn/Righthanders vs. the Tigers in night games.
BEGINNING MONDAY JULY 6
Cincinnati at Philadelphia (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Phillies are playing poorly (3-7, -$565 last 10 days) and there is nothing in their performance here at Citizens Bank that recommends them vs. Cincinnati?s all-righty rotation (5-16, -$1780 vs. righties at home). Johnny Cueto (2.86 ERA in 15 starts) and Aaron Harang (3.95 in 16 starts) are both likely to see action. We also like the Reds anytime Philly sends a southpaw to the hill (+$480 vs. lefties on the road). PREFERRED: Cueto/Harang/Reds vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Braves have had their difficulties this year, but the Cubs are not all that good and they tend to be overpriced here at Wrigley Field. They?ve fared poorly in night games (15-21, -$885), and Atlanta checks in with a solid record vs. lefthanders, averaging 5.4 runs per game. So take a shot vs. Ted Lilly at what figures to be an attractive underdog price. PREFERRED: Braves in night games & vs. Lilly.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Pirates have already dropped 6 of 9 to the Astros in head to head play (-$340) and they?ve been dreadful on the road all season (only 14-26, -$495). Houston has done its best work in day games this year (+$615) so we?ll lay the price in Wednesday?s afternoon contest. PREFERRED: Astros in day games.
Washington at Colorado (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Nationals will be huge underdogs at Coors Field, but the Rockies should win these games no matter what the price. Washington has lost a fortune already this year (-$2390 overall) and they?ve only won eight road games all year. Colorado is the hottest team in baseball and it will be astonishing if they don?t win at least 2 of 3. PREFERRED: Rockies in all games.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Padres have been dreadful outside of Petco Park (12-26, -$890) but we don?t think the Diamondbacks can take advantage. Arizona has lost a fortune here at Chase Field (-$1940) so we?ll stay away from this lackluster affair. PREFERRED: None.
Florida at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Giants are a sensational home team (24-12, +$1100) but the Marlins are looking good these days and they?ve been too effective vs. lefthanders to use any of the SF southpaws. But Florida is a big money-burner vs. righthanders (-$830) so we?ll play this series accordingly. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Marlins.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Tigers won 4 of the first 6 meetings between these clubs (+$210) and they?ve been playing very well (8-2, +$585 last 10 days) so it?s not likely we?ll be using the Royals here at Comerica. KC has lost money on the road (-$640) while Detroit is a big money-maker in this ballpark (+$920). But stay away from Zack Greinke, who continues to outpace every pitcher in baseball en route to Cy Young honors. PREFERRED: Tigers unless opposed by Greinke.
Oakland at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
This looks like it has the makings of a mismatch, given Boston?s outstanding record at Fenway (25-10, +$955) and Oakland?s disappointing 14-23 road mark (14-23, -$520 so far in 2009). But prices will be very high so only get involved if the number is reasonable. PREFERRED: Red Sox at -165 or less.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The battle for first place in the AL West is very tight, but the Angels are winless against the Rangers in 2009, dropping a three game set earlier in the year (-$315). Texas is a formidable 10-5 vs. righties in night games on the road (+$815) and they?ll no doubt catch a nice price when that situation comes up here in Anaheim. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at Seattle (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles lost 4 of 6 to the Mariners in two earlier series (-$245) and the home team continues to look very sharp (7-3, +$440 last 10 days). They have a real chance to capture the AL West title if their pitching holds up, while the Orioles will need a miracle just to climb to .500. PREFERRED: Mariners in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JULY 7
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets are in the doldrums (4-7, -$310 last 11 days with only 3.5 runs per game) as injuries and the resulting lack of offense takes its toll. The Dodgers just keep on rolling (+$1560 overall) but they?ll need to keep winning if they hope to hold off the hard charging Rockies and GIants. Their pitching staff (3.86 ERA) should hold the NY bats in check. PREFERRED: Dodgers in all games.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams are in a tight race atop the NL Central, but it?s the Cardinals? superior mound corps (3.86 ERA vs. Milwaukee?s 4.47) that will ultimately decide the division in favor of St. Louis. Watch out for Yovani Gallardo (+$380, 2.86 ERA in his 15 starts this year) but the rest of the Brewers? rotation is fair game. PREFERRED: Cardinals unless opposed by Gallardo.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams met for the first time this season at Rogers Centre last week. Both are hanging tough in the competitive AL East but we like the Rays vs. righthanders in night games. Tampa Bay is 16-5 in that situation here at Tropicana Field (+$885 with 7.2 runs per game) and the Blue Jays are too tough in day games (+$430 overall). PREFERRED: Rays vs. righthanders in night games.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The White Sox lost 4 of 6 in earlier head to head play (-$210) but they?ve looked very solid in recent days (6-4, +$275 last 10 with a 3.33 ERA among starters while averaging 5.8 runs per game). The Indians continue to be plagued by the worst pitching staff in the league (5.23 ERA). PREFERRED: White Sox in all games.
N.Y. Yankees at Minnesota (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yanks swept a 4 game set in New York (+$400) but Minnesota is a very imposing team here in the Metrodome, particularly vs. lefties (9-1, +$815 at night). We?ll go against the Yankees if that situation arises. PREFERRED: Twins vs. lefthanders in night games.
:mj06: :SIB