BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 29
Arizona at Chicago Cubs (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Cubs are getting good work from their rotation (2.06 ERA last 10 games) and Ted Lilly?s strong six innings in his 2010 debut suggests the best is yet to come. The D?backs are having far less success on the mound (5.03 overall team ERA) and they?ve posted a sorrowful 1-5 record outside of Chase Field (-$335). We?ll avoid Carlos Zambrano, who historically gets off to a slow start (-$270, 7.45 ERA in four games), but the rest of the home team?s rotation looks promising. BEST BET: All Chicago starters except C. Zambrano.
Milwaukee at San Diego (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Padres are off to an unexpectedly strong start (11-7, +$530), thanks in large part to some outstanding starting pitching (3.02 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the NL). They?re 7-1 here at Petco Park, and this is a Milwaukee team they took advantage of in 2009 (4-2, +$250 in head to head play). The Brewers are hitting very well, but they padded their BA?s when they annihilated Pittsburgh in a three game sweep at PNC Park last week. Their pitching looks shabby (5.01 team ERA) and they?ll be hard pressed to do better than a single victory in this series. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
Oakland at Toronto (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Athletics have climbed atop the AL West thanks to the best pitching staff in the league (3.08) and there?s no reason they can?t shut down the anemic Toronto bats (Jays .227 team BA, 3rd worst in the AL). Toronto had a great deal of difficulty when squaring off against righthanders here at Rogers Centre last year (14-19, -$1165) while Oakland cleaned up in night games vs. righties on the road (+$1165). We?ll look for that trend to continue. BEST BET: Athletics when righty meets righty in night games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 30
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Mets are coming off a solid week thanks to some quality starts (1.31 ERA among starters last 10 days). But the Phillies took 12 of 18 from New York in 2009 (+$405) and this team looks better than ever with the addition of Roy Halladay (+$400, 0.82 ERA so far). The Mets were only 24-36 vs. righties in road games last year (-$365) and the Phillies are averaging 5.9 runs per games vs. righties this year. We?ll lay the price on the home favorite when circumstances permit. BEST BET: Phillies when righty meets righty.
Washington at Florida (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Nats have produced a respectable won/lost record, but the pitching remains weak (5.36 ERA, 3rd worst in the NL) and it?s only a matter of time before they implode. The Marlins look like a reasonably good team, and they dispatched their division rival without difficulty in head to head play last year (12-6, +$210). Ricky Nolasco (3.03 ERA) has been strong in April, and he is likely to see action in this series. Washington lost a fortune on the road last year (-$1190) and Florida always seems to make money. BEST BET: Nolasco.
Houston at Atlanta (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
After dropping eight in a row to start the year, the Astros have won 8 of their last 10 (+$850), lowering their team ERA to a respectable 3.99 in the process. The Braves have faded a bit following a lackluster road trip, and their team BA has fallen to a meager .227. We haven?t forgotten how much trouble Atlanta had against righthanders here at Turner Field last season (-$2510), but there?s one big problem with the visitor. Houston has averaged only 3.1 runs per game, by far the fewest in MLB this year. So despite Atlanta?s shortcomings, do we really want to take a chance with Houston? BEST BET: None.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
Things are starting to look rather bleak in Cincinnati, as the Reds have failed to put together a competitive mound corps (6.14 team ERA, 2nd worst in the majors). The Cardinals are getting great work from Chris Carpenter (3.60) and Adam Wainwright (1.69), but the big story so far has to be Brad Penny, who has rejuvenated his career here in St. Louis (0.94 ERA in his first four starts). The Cardinals are profitable vs. righthanders (+$405) and Cincy?s rotation does not currently include any southpaws. BEST BET: Penny.
Pittsburgh at L.A. Dodgers (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Pirates took 2 out of 3 from LA at PNC Park (+$110) but they are fortunate to have won any games given their team ERA is a bloated 6.99. They are only 2-6 on the road this year (-$195) picking up right where they left off in 2009 (22-58, -$2435). The Dodgers have been struggling on the mound a bit, but they are generating plenty of offense (.297 team BA) and they should make a meal of the Bucs here at Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
This promises to be an exciting series, with two strong NL West contenders with outstanding pitching squaring. The Giants have been outstanding (2.82 team BA, tops in the majors) with Barry Zito (1.32 ERA in four starts) and Jonathan Sanchez (1.86 in three starts) two of the top contributors. The Rockies had a hard time dealing with lefthanders on the road last year (8-16, -$730) and we?ve seen the same pattern early in 2010 (1-3, -$220). Both of SF?s surging southpaws are expected to see action. BEST BET: Zito/A. Sanchez.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The White Sox could not hit in 2009, and so far this year we?re seeing more of the same (.224 team BA). What?s surprising is how high the team ERA is (4.58) given how formidable the starting rotation looks on paper. The Yankees are rolling at 12-6 (+$405) with a 3.43 team ERA as well as a .273 team BA (3rd best in the AL). Despite inflated prices they turned a fat profit in the Bronx last year (+$950) and they opened up at 5-1 in their first homestand (+$300). The visitor will be lucky to salvage a win. BEST BET: Yankees in all games.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Twins are off to a very fast start in the AL Central (13-6, +$555) and one key has been the return to top form of Francisco Liriano, who?s been unhittable in his first three outings (+$300, 1.29 ERA). The club is generating lots of runs (5.4 per game so far) as opposed to the Indians, who check in with a .233 team BA, averaging just 3.5 runs per game). The Tribe has gotten decent work from their rotation (3.71 ERA among starters last 10 days), but with a 7-3 record outside of Target Field (+$430), Minnesota looks too good to pass up. BEST BET: Twins at -120 or better.
Boston at Baltimore (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Orioles avoided a sweep at Fenway Park last week with a 7-6 win on Sunday, but this is a team they beat just twice in 18 attempts last year (-$1320) and they are off to the worst start of any team in baseball (3-16, -$1240). Boston is not looking sharp right now (only 8-11, -$775 in 2010) as the big guns in the starting rotation all check in with greatly inflated ERA?s. This is a series we?ll avoid at the present time. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Detroit (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Angels had a successful first road trip (4-2, +$310 vs. the Yankees and Blue Jays) and they were a phenomenally successful visiting team last year (+$1855). The Tigers have a solid bullpen, but the starters have yet to round into form (7.08 ERA last 10 days). Jered Weaver (2.77 ERA) has emerged as the ace of the LA staff now that John Lackey is gone and he?s slated to take a turn at Comerica. Detroit lost a bundle vs. righthanders in 2010 (-$890) so take LA with Weaver on the hill. BEST BET: Jr. Weaver.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The hapless Royals posted a 1-9 mark against the Rays in ?09 (-$775) and this appears to far a far more formidable Tampa Bay squad. Three weeks into the new season they own the best record in baseball (14-5, +$880) while KC continues to flounder. Despite the presence of Cy Young ace Zack Greinke, KC has the worst team ERA in the league (5.55), and their all-righty rotation appears tailor made for the home team to tee off on (+$1100 vs. righties at Tropicana Field last year, 10-1, +$1055 overall in 2010). David Price is coming off a shut out vs. Toronto, and is primed for a big season (2.20 ERA in four starts). We?ll lay the fat price when he goes. BEST BET: Price.
Texas at Seattle (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Rangers turned a profit vs. this team in 2009 (+$315) and took 2 out of 3 in an earlier series this year. But we like the way Seattle has been playing (5-4, +$130 last 10 days), and that 3.41 team ERA is remarkable considering Cliff Lee and Eric Bedard have been stuck on the sidelines. Lee is due back for this series and you have to like his chances, as well as all the other Seattle southpaws, given Texas?s 1-6 record vs. lefthanders (-4735 with only 2.9 runs per game). And don?t forget that the Rangers were only 8-17 on the road vs. lefthanders last season. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Rangers.
Arizona at Chicago Cubs (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Cubs are getting good work from their rotation (2.06 ERA last 10 games) and Ted Lilly?s strong six innings in his 2010 debut suggests the best is yet to come. The D?backs are having far less success on the mound (5.03 overall team ERA) and they?ve posted a sorrowful 1-5 record outside of Chase Field (-$335). We?ll avoid Carlos Zambrano, who historically gets off to a slow start (-$270, 7.45 ERA in four games), but the rest of the home team?s rotation looks promising. BEST BET: All Chicago starters except C. Zambrano.
Milwaukee at San Diego (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Padres are off to an unexpectedly strong start (11-7, +$530), thanks in large part to some outstanding starting pitching (3.02 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the NL). They?re 7-1 here at Petco Park, and this is a Milwaukee team they took advantage of in 2009 (4-2, +$250 in head to head play). The Brewers are hitting very well, but they padded their BA?s when they annihilated Pittsburgh in a three game sweep at PNC Park last week. Their pitching looks shabby (5.01 team ERA) and they?ll be hard pressed to do better than a single victory in this series. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
Oakland at Toronto (4) 29th, 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Athletics have climbed atop the AL West thanks to the best pitching staff in the league (3.08) and there?s no reason they can?t shut down the anemic Toronto bats (Jays .227 team BA, 3rd worst in the AL). Toronto had a great deal of difficulty when squaring off against righthanders here at Rogers Centre last year (14-19, -$1165) while Oakland cleaned up in night games vs. righties on the road (+$1165). We?ll look for that trend to continue. BEST BET: Athletics when righty meets righty in night games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 30
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Mets are coming off a solid week thanks to some quality starts (1.31 ERA among starters last 10 days). But the Phillies took 12 of 18 from New York in 2009 (+$405) and this team looks better than ever with the addition of Roy Halladay (+$400, 0.82 ERA so far). The Mets were only 24-36 vs. righties in road games last year (-$365) and the Phillies are averaging 5.9 runs per games vs. righties this year. We?ll lay the price on the home favorite when circumstances permit. BEST BET: Phillies when righty meets righty.
Washington at Florida (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Nats have produced a respectable won/lost record, but the pitching remains weak (5.36 ERA, 3rd worst in the NL) and it?s only a matter of time before they implode. The Marlins look like a reasonably good team, and they dispatched their division rival without difficulty in head to head play last year (12-6, +$210). Ricky Nolasco (3.03 ERA) has been strong in April, and he is likely to see action in this series. Washington lost a fortune on the road last year (-$1190) and Florida always seems to make money. BEST BET: Nolasco.
Houston at Atlanta (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
After dropping eight in a row to start the year, the Astros have won 8 of their last 10 (+$850), lowering their team ERA to a respectable 3.99 in the process. The Braves have faded a bit following a lackluster road trip, and their team BA has fallen to a meager .227. We haven?t forgotten how much trouble Atlanta had against righthanders here at Turner Field last season (-$2510), but there?s one big problem with the visitor. Houston has averaged only 3.1 runs per game, by far the fewest in MLB this year. So despite Atlanta?s shortcomings, do we really want to take a chance with Houston? BEST BET: None.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
Things are starting to look rather bleak in Cincinnati, as the Reds have failed to put together a competitive mound corps (6.14 team ERA, 2nd worst in the majors). The Cardinals are getting great work from Chris Carpenter (3.60) and Adam Wainwright (1.69), but the big story so far has to be Brad Penny, who has rejuvenated his career here in St. Louis (0.94 ERA in his first four starts). The Cardinals are profitable vs. righthanders (+$405) and Cincy?s rotation does not currently include any southpaws. BEST BET: Penny.
Pittsburgh at L.A. Dodgers (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Pirates took 2 out of 3 from LA at PNC Park (+$110) but they are fortunate to have won any games given their team ERA is a bloated 6.99. They are only 2-6 on the road this year (-$195) picking up right where they left off in 2009 (22-58, -$2435). The Dodgers have been struggling on the mound a bit, but they are generating plenty of offense (.297 team BA) and they should make a meal of the Bucs here at Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
This promises to be an exciting series, with two strong NL West contenders with outstanding pitching squaring. The Giants have been outstanding (2.82 team BA, tops in the majors) with Barry Zito (1.32 ERA in four starts) and Jonathan Sanchez (1.86 in three starts) two of the top contributors. The Rockies had a hard time dealing with lefthanders on the road last year (8-16, -$730) and we?ve seen the same pattern early in 2010 (1-3, -$220). Both of SF?s surging southpaws are expected to see action. BEST BET: Zito/A. Sanchez.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The White Sox could not hit in 2009, and so far this year we?re seeing more of the same (.224 team BA). What?s surprising is how high the team ERA is (4.58) given how formidable the starting rotation looks on paper. The Yankees are rolling at 12-6 (+$405) with a 3.43 team ERA as well as a .273 team BA (3rd best in the AL). Despite inflated prices they turned a fat profit in the Bronx last year (+$950) and they opened up at 5-1 in their first homestand (+$300). The visitor will be lucky to salvage a win. BEST BET: Yankees in all games.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Twins are off to a very fast start in the AL Central (13-6, +$555) and one key has been the return to top form of Francisco Liriano, who?s been unhittable in his first three outings (+$300, 1.29 ERA). The club is generating lots of runs (5.4 per game so far) as opposed to the Indians, who check in with a .233 team BA, averaging just 3.5 runs per game). The Tribe has gotten decent work from their rotation (3.71 ERA among starters last 10 days), but with a 7-3 record outside of Target Field (+$430), Minnesota looks too good to pass up. BEST BET: Twins at -120 or better.
Boston at Baltimore (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Orioles avoided a sweep at Fenway Park last week with a 7-6 win on Sunday, but this is a team they beat just twice in 18 attempts last year (-$1320) and they are off to the worst start of any team in baseball (3-16, -$1240). Boston is not looking sharp right now (only 8-11, -$775 in 2010) as the big guns in the starting rotation all check in with greatly inflated ERA?s. This is a series we?ll avoid at the present time. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Detroit (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Angels had a successful first road trip (4-2, +$310 vs. the Yankees and Blue Jays) and they were a phenomenally successful visiting team last year (+$1855). The Tigers have a solid bullpen, but the starters have yet to round into form (7.08 ERA last 10 days). Jered Weaver (2.77 ERA) has emerged as the ace of the LA staff now that John Lackey is gone and he?s slated to take a turn at Comerica. Detroit lost a bundle vs. righthanders in 2010 (-$890) so take LA with Weaver on the hill. BEST BET: Jr. Weaver.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The hapless Royals posted a 1-9 mark against the Rays in ?09 (-$775) and this appears to far a far more formidable Tampa Bay squad. Three weeks into the new season they own the best record in baseball (14-5, +$880) while KC continues to flounder. Despite the presence of Cy Young ace Zack Greinke, KC has the worst team ERA in the league (5.55), and their all-righty rotation appears tailor made for the home team to tee off on (+$1100 vs. righties at Tropicana Field last year, 10-1, +$1055 overall in 2010). David Price is coming off a shut out vs. Toronto, and is primed for a big season (2.20 ERA in four starts). We?ll lay the fat price when he goes. BEST BET: Price.
Texas at Seattle (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Rangers turned a profit vs. this team in 2009 (+$315) and took 2 out of 3 in an earlier series this year. But we like the way Seattle has been playing (5-4, +$130 last 10 days), and that 3.41 team ERA is remarkable considering Cliff Lee and Eric Bedard have been stuck on the sidelines. Lee is due back for this series and you have to like his chances, as well as all the other Seattle southpaws, given Texas?s 1-6 record vs. lefthanders (-4735 with only 2.9 runs per game). And don?t forget that the Rangers were only 8-17 on the road vs. lefthanders last season. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Rangers.
