- Apr 1, 2011
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BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 6
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs are well within striking distance in the tightly bunched NL Central standings but they have major rotation problems which suggest trouble ahead. The starters have endured a brutal stretch of games in the past 10 days (8.67 ERA) and are next to last overall in the league this season (4.99). Chicago is only 7-13 vs. righthanders so far (-$770 with only 3.6 runs per game) and the Cincinnati trio of Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake have all shown improvement in their most recent outings. We expect at least two of them to see action, no doubt at reasonably prices vs. the always overpriced Cubs at Wrigley. BEST BET: Volquez/Arroyo/Leake.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Braves have a terrific pitching staff (3.11 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the NL) that is holding the team together at the moment, because the offense has been a disaster (.229 team BA). This matchup looks like a tough one for Atlanta. The Phillies are getting outstanding work from their staff (3.18 ERA) and the team is rolling as May gets underway (7-3, +$270 last 10 days). The Braves have lost money in 2011 (-$385) and they?ll be fortunate to salvage a win here at Citizens Bank this weekend. BEST BET: Phillies in all games.
Houston at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
As usual, the Pirates are struggling at the plate (.230 team BA) but they?ve put together a decent team ERA (3.72) and could be poised for a good weekend at PNC Park vs. the last place Astros. Houston has the worst pitching staff in the league at the moment (5.06 ERA) and they are only 6-13 (-$555) against righthanders. Charlie Moron has looked very sharp in his first six starts (3.52) and is expected to take a turn in this series. And given Pittsburgh?s excellent record vs. lefthanders (4-1, +$385) we?ll go against either of Houston?s struggling southpaws. BEST BET: Morton/Pirates vs. lefthanders.
Washington at Florida (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Marlins had a terrific April (18-9, +$660) and they have a chance to fatten up their record against a far weaker division rival. Florida took 2 of 3 from the Nats in an earlier series, having taken 13 of 18 in head to head play last year (+$640). They have a trio of excellent righthanders in Ricky Nolasco (3.35 ERA), Anibal Sanchez (3.86) and the incomparable Josh Johnson (0.88), at least a couple of whom are expected to be on the mound this weekend. Washington has not fared well on the road in night games, with a 1-6 record in that spot since the season got underway (-$425 with only 3.1 runs per game). BEST BET: Nolasco, A. Sanchez & Jo. Johnson in night games.
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. Mets (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The struggling Mets came alive long enough to engineer a six game winning streak, but they?ve resumed their losing ways and remain mired in last place in the NL East (12-15, -$360). Their pitching is some of the worst in the league (4.58 ERA) and their offense is lagging as well (.249 BA). The Dodgers are playing reasonably well at the moment (3.94 ERA among starters, averaging 4.8 runs per game in those contests) and they?ve posted a 5-2 record vs. lefthanders (+$300). Neither of New York?s southpaws is looking especially sharp at the moment, so we like the visitor?s chances. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Brewers got through April with a .500 record thanks to a respectable showing by their pitching staff (3.62 ERA). Look for a further improvement with Zach Greinke coming off the DL and joining the starting rotation. The big problem for Milwaukee has been their poor showing vs. lefties (averaging just 3.1 runs per game) and they?ll be facing a good one in Jamie Garcia (2.48 ERA in six starts). The Cardinals are perched atop the NL Central, with the NL?s top attack (.294 BA) and a strong team ERA (3.24). BEST BET: J. Garcia.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Considering how poorly these teams have been playing it?s difficult to see who will prevail. The Padres were a contending team in 2010 and their pitching still leads the league (3.03 ERA). But the are only hitting .211 as a team, averaging a dismal 2.9 runs per game a full month into the season. The D?backs are a troubled team as well, but they?ve gotten a boost from Ian Kennedy (+$300), who?s been hard to hit in his two most recent starts (1.62 ERA). San Diego is only 2-9 (-$720) vs. righties at Petco Park. BEST BET: Kennedy.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rockies dropped 2 out of 3 to this team at Coors Field last month, but by any measure April was a tremendous success for this Colorado team (+$575 overall). They have the identical team ERA as the defending champions (3.53) and they check in at ATT Park with a 10-3 record in road games (+$690). The Giants seemed headed in the right direction, but they?ve looked inept in recent days (only 3-6, -$480 in their last 10, averaging just 2.3 runs per game in those contests). With attractive underdog prices available, we like the visitor?s chances. BEST BET: Rockies as underdogs.
Minnesota at Boston (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
Showdown between a pair of teams that were considered top contenders when the season got underway. Both have been dreadful so far (Twins -$915, Boston -$1020), but the edge here has to be with Boston. Their starting pitching is coming around (2.20 ERA among starters last 10 days), with all members of the rotation coming off solid outings. Minnesota ranks last in the league in both pitching (4.88 ERA) and hitting (.233 BA, averaging just 3.1 runs per game). A great opportunity for the Sox to fatten up on a struggling visitor at Fenway Park. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Toronto (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tigers got off to a bad start in 2011, got hot for a while, then tapered off once again (3-6, -$430 last 10 days), so caution is advised. We like what we?ve seen from the Toronto pitching staff (3.76 ERA), most notably Ricky Romero (3.00 ERA), who?s slated to appear in this four game set at Rogers Centre. Detroit is only 6-10 on the road this year (-$330) while the Blue Jays are a spectacular 10-5 in night games (+$700). We like the home team?s chances when the setting is right. BEST BET: Romero/Blue Jays in night games.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have been running hot and cold, but they are back to .500 after a sweep of the White Sox at US Cellular and now they host a Tampa team they swept at Tropicana Field to open the season. But the Rays have been spectacular since getting off to that horrendous first couple of weeks (6-4, +$145 last 10 days) and they have a big pitching edge, with an ERA over one run less than Baltimore?s. We?ll take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Rematch of last season?s championship series, with both teams looking evenly matched at the moment (Texas 3.86 ERA, averaging 5.2 runs per game on offense, New York 3.79 ERA, averaging 5.6 runs per game). The Rangers check in with a 6-3 record vs. lefthanders (+$325 with 6.6 runs per game) and they?ll no doubt catch a nice price against Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia, who?s looked sharp but does not match up well vs. this lineup. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Sabathia.
Oakland at Kansas City (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
That Oakland mound corps continues to excel (2.79 ERA, best in the majors), but their run production remains anemic (.234 team BA, averaging just 3.3 runs per game). The Royals have been hitting well, particularly vs. lefthanders (7.2 runs per game) and they?ve been very profitable in the early going (+$440). The Athletics have an abundance of lefty starters, so we can use the home team under favorable circumstances. BEST BET: Royals vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Indians are the big story in baseball at the moment. They own the best record in baseball at 19-8 (+$1325) and their stats are far better than anyone projected they would be (.272 BA, tops in the AL, 3.49 ERA, 4th best in the league). The Angels look good at 16-12, but they?ve lost money vs. righthanders at Anaheim (-$435) and their run production has been unimpressive in recent days (only 3.4 per game in their last 10). With a rotation consisting entirely of righthanders, we like the visitors throughout, and we?re likely to see some attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Chicago W. Sox at Seattle (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox won a pair of games to start a four game set at Yankee Stadium last week, then promptly dropped the next five in a row, including a sweep in their own backyard by the Orioles over the weekend. It?s hard to get excited by the Mariners, but the team is coming off a decent stretch (7-3, +$645) and they have a trio of righthanders in Felix Hernandez (3.32 ERA), Doug Fister (2.70), and Michael Pineda (2.01) who have a chance to keep this team moving in the right direction. At least a couple of them are likely to appear this weekend at Safeco. BEST BET: F. Hernandez/Fister/Pineda.
BEGINNING MONDAY MAY 9
L.A. Dodgers at Pittsburgh (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
Both these teams have done well vs. lefthanded pitching (LA +$300, Pirates +$385) but both have lost money vs. righties (Dodgers -$515, Pittsburgh -$665 at PNC Park). We?ll play this series accordingly, passing if righty meets righty or when southpaws square off. PREFERRED: Righthanders when opposed by lefthanders.
Philadelphia at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Phillies dispatched the Marlins without difficulty last year (13-5, +$605), but this appears to be a far more formidable Florida club. They?ve posted a 7-1 record vs. righthanders in home night games (+$605 with 5.1 runs per game) while the Phillies are only 5-8 vs. righties at night (-$650). The Phillies look very tough right now, but the home team could be a nice value if the price is right. PREFERRED: Marlins when righty meets righty in night games.
Cincinnati at Houston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Astros dropped 2 of 3 to the Reds in an earlier meeting, and that 6-13 record vs. righties (-$555) will be a problem vs. this rotation. Cincinnati is 4-1 vs. lefties (+$310 with 9.0 runs per game) and should fare well when Houston sends a southpaw to the hill. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. Houston lefthanders.
San Diego at Milwaukee (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Brewers are just shy of .500 as May gets underway, but with Zach Greinke joining Shaun Marcum (2.21 ERA in six starts) in the rotation, along with Randy Wolf (2.39), the team should derail the light hitting Padres without difficulty. All three are likely to see action vs. SD at Miller Park. PREFERRED: Greinke/Marcum/Wolf.
N.Y. Mets at Colorado (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Rockies haven?t hit as well as you would expect for a team enjoying a fat lead in the NL West (.236 BA). But they have a huge pitching edge over the Mets (3.53 team ERA as opposed to 4.58 for New York) and their righthanders can handle the visitors? inept offense without much difficulty. The Mets are a dismal 6-14 (-$860) vs. righties in 2011. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Mets.
Oakland at Texas (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 at McAfee Coliseum last weekend, so look for Texas to exact a measure of revenge. The Rangers are 6-3 vs. lefties this year, including a 5-0 mark at Arlington (+$505 with 8.2 runs per game). Hard to pass up the hard hitting home team under the circumstances. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. lefthanders.
Chicago W. Sox at L.A. Angels (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Angels embarrassed Chicago when they visited US Cellular in mid-April, sweeping the lackluster White Sox without much difficulty (3-0, +$360). They?ve turned a profit vs. lefthanders this season (+$195) and neither of the visitor?s ace southpaws has flashed the good form we might have expected to see from them. PREFERRED: Angels vs. lefthanders.
BEGINNING TUESDAY MAY 10
Washington at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves took 2 out of 3 when these teams squared off in April. Atlanta has a spectacular pitching staff (3.11 ERA) but the team has not been impressive here at Turner Field (-$425). We?d consider a play on the visitor, but Washington is only 1-6 in night games on the road (-$425), so caution is advised. PREFERRED: None.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Cardinals should do better against Chicago than they did in 2010, when the hapless Cubs managed to win 9 of 15 in head to head play (+$790). St. Louis is 12-4 in night games this year (+$735) and their solid stats (.294 BA, 3.28 ERA) suggest they?ll be a serious contender for the NL Central title all season long. PREFERRED: Cardinals in night games.
Arizona at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Giants are going through a very tough spell (3-6, -$480 last 10 days, averaging just 2.3 runs per game in those contests), so laying big prices on them as a home favorite is out of the question for now. The Diamondbacks don?t offer much of an opportunity however, so we?re content to sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Yankees are 9-3 at home vs. righthanders (+$425 with 5.9 runs per game), and they?ll be up against a Kansas City team that has yet to win a road game at night (0-6, -$600). All three of these contests are scheduled evening affairs, so we like the home team?s chances. PREFERRED: Yankees vs. righthanders.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
James Shields is enjoying a nice bounce-back season for Tampa Bay, posting a very tidy profit for the visitor in his six starts (+$380, 2.14 ERA). The Rays check in with a 5-1 record in night games away from Tropicana Field (+$560 with a spectacular 7.6 runs per game in those contests). The Indians are likely to cool off at some point. PREFERRED: Shields/Rays in night games.
Boston at Toronto (2) 10th, 11th
The Red Sox have had plenty of woes to start the 2011 campaign (12-15, -$1020 overall), but they did manage to take 3 of 4 from this team when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park (+$125). Their pitching has been far better than Toronto?s in recent days (2.20 ERA in their last 10, as opposed to 4.98 for the Blue Jays), so we?ll back them in both games. If the visitor can manage at least a split we won?t get hurt. PREFERRED: Red Sox in both games.
Seattle at Baltimore (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mariners have the makings of a decent rotation, and they?ve fared well in night games outside of Safeco Field (6-4, +$515). The Orioles are 0-5 vs. lefties here at Camden Yards (-$515 with only 1.8 runs per game), so we?ll look for Seattle?s southpaws to improve on their stats. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Orioles.
Detroit at Minnesota (2) 10th, 11th
We?d have been tempted to grab the Tigers in this series a week ago, but they?ve cooled off somewhat (-$575 overall) so we?re far from enthusiastic. The Twins have been an unmitigated disaster (9-18, -$915) so there?s no way we?ll consider them at the moment. We?ll take a fresh look on game day. PREFERRED: None.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs are well within striking distance in the tightly bunched NL Central standings but they have major rotation problems which suggest trouble ahead. The starters have endured a brutal stretch of games in the past 10 days (8.67 ERA) and are next to last overall in the league this season (4.99). Chicago is only 7-13 vs. righthanders so far (-$770 with only 3.6 runs per game) and the Cincinnati trio of Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake have all shown improvement in their most recent outings. We expect at least two of them to see action, no doubt at reasonably prices vs. the always overpriced Cubs at Wrigley. BEST BET: Volquez/Arroyo/Leake.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Braves have a terrific pitching staff (3.11 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the NL) that is holding the team together at the moment, because the offense has been a disaster (.229 team BA). This matchup looks like a tough one for Atlanta. The Phillies are getting outstanding work from their staff (3.18 ERA) and the team is rolling as May gets underway (7-3, +$270 last 10 days). The Braves have lost money in 2011 (-$385) and they?ll be fortunate to salvage a win here at Citizens Bank this weekend. BEST BET: Phillies in all games.
Houston at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
As usual, the Pirates are struggling at the plate (.230 team BA) but they?ve put together a decent team ERA (3.72) and could be poised for a good weekend at PNC Park vs. the last place Astros. Houston has the worst pitching staff in the league at the moment (5.06 ERA) and they are only 6-13 (-$555) against righthanders. Charlie Moron has looked very sharp in his first six starts (3.52) and is expected to take a turn in this series. And given Pittsburgh?s excellent record vs. lefthanders (4-1, +$385) we?ll go against either of Houston?s struggling southpaws. BEST BET: Morton/Pirates vs. lefthanders.
Washington at Florida (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Marlins had a terrific April (18-9, +$660) and they have a chance to fatten up their record against a far weaker division rival. Florida took 2 of 3 from the Nats in an earlier series, having taken 13 of 18 in head to head play last year (+$640). They have a trio of excellent righthanders in Ricky Nolasco (3.35 ERA), Anibal Sanchez (3.86) and the incomparable Josh Johnson (0.88), at least a couple of whom are expected to be on the mound this weekend. Washington has not fared well on the road in night games, with a 1-6 record in that spot since the season got underway (-$425 with only 3.1 runs per game). BEST BET: Nolasco, A. Sanchez & Jo. Johnson in night games.
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. Mets (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The struggling Mets came alive long enough to engineer a six game winning streak, but they?ve resumed their losing ways and remain mired in last place in the NL East (12-15, -$360). Their pitching is some of the worst in the league (4.58 ERA) and their offense is lagging as well (.249 BA). The Dodgers are playing reasonably well at the moment (3.94 ERA among starters, averaging 4.8 runs per game in those contests) and they?ve posted a 5-2 record vs. lefthanders (+$300). Neither of New York?s southpaws is looking especially sharp at the moment, so we like the visitor?s chances. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Brewers got through April with a .500 record thanks to a respectable showing by their pitching staff (3.62 ERA). Look for a further improvement with Zach Greinke coming off the DL and joining the starting rotation. The big problem for Milwaukee has been their poor showing vs. lefties (averaging just 3.1 runs per game) and they?ll be facing a good one in Jamie Garcia (2.48 ERA in six starts). The Cardinals are perched atop the NL Central, with the NL?s top attack (.294 BA) and a strong team ERA (3.24). BEST BET: J. Garcia.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Considering how poorly these teams have been playing it?s difficult to see who will prevail. The Padres were a contending team in 2010 and their pitching still leads the league (3.03 ERA). But the are only hitting .211 as a team, averaging a dismal 2.9 runs per game a full month into the season. The D?backs are a troubled team as well, but they?ve gotten a boost from Ian Kennedy (+$300), who?s been hard to hit in his two most recent starts (1.62 ERA). San Diego is only 2-9 (-$720) vs. righties at Petco Park. BEST BET: Kennedy.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rockies dropped 2 out of 3 to this team at Coors Field last month, but by any measure April was a tremendous success for this Colorado team (+$575 overall). They have the identical team ERA as the defending champions (3.53) and they check in at ATT Park with a 10-3 record in road games (+$690). The Giants seemed headed in the right direction, but they?ve looked inept in recent days (only 3-6, -$480 in their last 10, averaging just 2.3 runs per game in those contests). With attractive underdog prices available, we like the visitor?s chances. BEST BET: Rockies as underdogs.
Minnesota at Boston (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
Showdown between a pair of teams that were considered top contenders when the season got underway. Both have been dreadful so far (Twins -$915, Boston -$1020), but the edge here has to be with Boston. Their starting pitching is coming around (2.20 ERA among starters last 10 days), with all members of the rotation coming off solid outings. Minnesota ranks last in the league in both pitching (4.88 ERA) and hitting (.233 BA, averaging just 3.1 runs per game). A great opportunity for the Sox to fatten up on a struggling visitor at Fenway Park. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Toronto (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tigers got off to a bad start in 2011, got hot for a while, then tapered off once again (3-6, -$430 last 10 days), so caution is advised. We like what we?ve seen from the Toronto pitching staff (3.76 ERA), most notably Ricky Romero (3.00 ERA), who?s slated to appear in this four game set at Rogers Centre. Detroit is only 6-10 on the road this year (-$330) while the Blue Jays are a spectacular 10-5 in night games (+$700). We like the home team?s chances when the setting is right. BEST BET: Romero/Blue Jays in night games.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have been running hot and cold, but they are back to .500 after a sweep of the White Sox at US Cellular and now they host a Tampa team they swept at Tropicana Field to open the season. But the Rays have been spectacular since getting off to that horrendous first couple of weeks (6-4, +$145 last 10 days) and they have a big pitching edge, with an ERA over one run less than Baltimore?s. We?ll take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Rematch of last season?s championship series, with both teams looking evenly matched at the moment (Texas 3.86 ERA, averaging 5.2 runs per game on offense, New York 3.79 ERA, averaging 5.6 runs per game). The Rangers check in with a 6-3 record vs. lefthanders (+$325 with 6.6 runs per game) and they?ll no doubt catch a nice price against Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia, who?s looked sharp but does not match up well vs. this lineup. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Sabathia.
Oakland at Kansas City (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
That Oakland mound corps continues to excel (2.79 ERA, best in the majors), but their run production remains anemic (.234 team BA, averaging just 3.3 runs per game). The Royals have been hitting well, particularly vs. lefthanders (7.2 runs per game) and they?ve been very profitable in the early going (+$440). The Athletics have an abundance of lefty starters, so we can use the home team under favorable circumstances. BEST BET: Royals vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Indians are the big story in baseball at the moment. They own the best record in baseball at 19-8 (+$1325) and their stats are far better than anyone projected they would be (.272 BA, tops in the AL, 3.49 ERA, 4th best in the league). The Angels look good at 16-12, but they?ve lost money vs. righthanders at Anaheim (-$435) and their run production has been unimpressive in recent days (only 3.4 per game in their last 10). With a rotation consisting entirely of righthanders, we like the visitors throughout, and we?re likely to see some attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Chicago W. Sox at Seattle (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox won a pair of games to start a four game set at Yankee Stadium last week, then promptly dropped the next five in a row, including a sweep in their own backyard by the Orioles over the weekend. It?s hard to get excited by the Mariners, but the team is coming off a decent stretch (7-3, +$645) and they have a trio of righthanders in Felix Hernandez (3.32 ERA), Doug Fister (2.70), and Michael Pineda (2.01) who have a chance to keep this team moving in the right direction. At least a couple of them are likely to appear this weekend at Safeco. BEST BET: F. Hernandez/Fister/Pineda.
BEGINNING MONDAY MAY 9
L.A. Dodgers at Pittsburgh (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
Both these teams have done well vs. lefthanded pitching (LA +$300, Pirates +$385) but both have lost money vs. righties (Dodgers -$515, Pittsburgh -$665 at PNC Park). We?ll play this series accordingly, passing if righty meets righty or when southpaws square off. PREFERRED: Righthanders when opposed by lefthanders.
Philadelphia at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Phillies dispatched the Marlins without difficulty last year (13-5, +$605), but this appears to be a far more formidable Florida club. They?ve posted a 7-1 record vs. righthanders in home night games (+$605 with 5.1 runs per game) while the Phillies are only 5-8 vs. righties at night (-$650). The Phillies look very tough right now, but the home team could be a nice value if the price is right. PREFERRED: Marlins when righty meets righty in night games.
Cincinnati at Houston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Astros dropped 2 of 3 to the Reds in an earlier meeting, and that 6-13 record vs. righties (-$555) will be a problem vs. this rotation. Cincinnati is 4-1 vs. lefties (+$310 with 9.0 runs per game) and should fare well when Houston sends a southpaw to the hill. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. Houston lefthanders.
San Diego at Milwaukee (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Brewers are just shy of .500 as May gets underway, but with Zach Greinke joining Shaun Marcum (2.21 ERA in six starts) in the rotation, along with Randy Wolf (2.39), the team should derail the light hitting Padres without difficulty. All three are likely to see action vs. SD at Miller Park. PREFERRED: Greinke/Marcum/Wolf.
N.Y. Mets at Colorado (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Rockies haven?t hit as well as you would expect for a team enjoying a fat lead in the NL West (.236 BA). But they have a huge pitching edge over the Mets (3.53 team ERA as opposed to 4.58 for New York) and their righthanders can handle the visitors? inept offense without much difficulty. The Mets are a dismal 6-14 (-$860) vs. righties in 2011. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Mets.
Oakland at Texas (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 at McAfee Coliseum last weekend, so look for Texas to exact a measure of revenge. The Rangers are 6-3 vs. lefties this year, including a 5-0 mark at Arlington (+$505 with 8.2 runs per game). Hard to pass up the hard hitting home team under the circumstances. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. lefthanders.
Chicago W. Sox at L.A. Angels (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Angels embarrassed Chicago when they visited US Cellular in mid-April, sweeping the lackluster White Sox without much difficulty (3-0, +$360). They?ve turned a profit vs. lefthanders this season (+$195) and neither of the visitor?s ace southpaws has flashed the good form we might have expected to see from them. PREFERRED: Angels vs. lefthanders.
BEGINNING TUESDAY MAY 10
Washington at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves took 2 out of 3 when these teams squared off in April. Atlanta has a spectacular pitching staff (3.11 ERA) but the team has not been impressive here at Turner Field (-$425). We?d consider a play on the visitor, but Washington is only 1-6 in night games on the road (-$425), so caution is advised. PREFERRED: None.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Cardinals should do better against Chicago than they did in 2010, when the hapless Cubs managed to win 9 of 15 in head to head play (+$790). St. Louis is 12-4 in night games this year (+$735) and their solid stats (.294 BA, 3.28 ERA) suggest they?ll be a serious contender for the NL Central title all season long. PREFERRED: Cardinals in night games.
Arizona at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Giants are going through a very tough spell (3-6, -$480 last 10 days, averaging just 2.3 runs per game in those contests), so laying big prices on them as a home favorite is out of the question for now. The Diamondbacks don?t offer much of an opportunity however, so we?re content to sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Yankees are 9-3 at home vs. righthanders (+$425 with 5.9 runs per game), and they?ll be up against a Kansas City team that has yet to win a road game at night (0-6, -$600). All three of these contests are scheduled evening affairs, so we like the home team?s chances. PREFERRED: Yankees vs. righthanders.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
James Shields is enjoying a nice bounce-back season for Tampa Bay, posting a very tidy profit for the visitor in his six starts (+$380, 2.14 ERA). The Rays check in with a 5-1 record in night games away from Tropicana Field (+$560 with a spectacular 7.6 runs per game in those contests). The Indians are likely to cool off at some point. PREFERRED: Shields/Rays in night games.
Boston at Toronto (2) 10th, 11th
The Red Sox have had plenty of woes to start the 2011 campaign (12-15, -$1020 overall), but they did manage to take 3 of 4 from this team when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park (+$125). Their pitching has been far better than Toronto?s in recent days (2.20 ERA in their last 10, as opposed to 4.98 for the Blue Jays), so we?ll back them in both games. If the visitor can manage at least a split we won?t get hurt. PREFERRED: Red Sox in both games.
Seattle at Baltimore (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mariners have the makings of a decent rotation, and they?ve fared well in night games outside of Safeco Field (6-4, +$515). The Orioles are 0-5 vs. lefties here at Camden Yards (-$515 with only 1.8 runs per game), so we?ll look for Seattle?s southpaws to improve on their stats. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Orioles.
Detroit at Minnesota (2) 10th, 11th
We?d have been tempted to grab the Tigers in this series a week ago, but they?ve cooled off somewhat (-$575 overall) so we?re far from enthusiastic. The Twins have been an unmitigated disaster (9-18, -$915) so there?s no way we?ll consider them at the moment. We?ll take a fresh look on game day. PREFERRED: None.
