BASEBALL
BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 24
San Diego at N.Y. Mets (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Mets blew a golden opportunity to beat up on an NL weakling when they dropped 3 of 4 to the Padres at Petco Park (-$240). But they?ve performed well at CitiField this year (12-8, +$410) and they should manage to exact a measure of revenge this weekend. San Diego checks in with a pitiful .219 team BA, and they?ve averaged a full run per game less than New York. They are just 3-13 vs. lefthanders (-$1040, averaging a meager 2.6 runs per game in those contests). Staff ace Johan Santana checks in with a 2.89 ERA after eight starts, and should handle this visitor with ease. BEST BET: J.Santana.
San Francisco at Miami (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Giants were swept by this team at ATT park in an earlier series (-$375), having also dropped 4 of 6 to this club in 2011. Their team ERA has been dropping steadily in recent weeks, and is now almost identical to San Francisco?s (3.36). The Giants have lost money vs. righthanders in road games (-$300) and they?ll be facing some capable ones here in Miami, most notable Anibal Sanchez, who is off to the best start of his career (2.32 ERA in eight starts). We?ll get on board when he is on the mound. BEST BET: A. Sanchez.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Phillies dropped 6 of 9 to the World Champs in the 2011 regular season (-$530), going on to lose the NLDS to them as well. They are an outstanding hitting team (.279 team BA. tops in the NL) but they?ve been under-performing in recent days (2-8, -$830 in their last 10), while the Phillies have been moving up nicely (7-3, +$320 last 10, with 4.9 runs per game). But Philly?s pitching staff ranks a disappointing 10th in the league right now and their hitting is sill very ordinary. We?ll stay away from this one for now. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Seattle (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
Last year the Mariners couldn?t beat anybody (-$2210 overall) but they are clearly a better team right now, and the Angels are floundering (-$1610 so far in 2012). They are averaging 3.6 runs per game on offense, with Albert Pujols still performing shockingly below par. LA may pull itself together in time, but they?ve lost a lot of money on the road so far, and they are taking on a Seattle team that is making money vs. lefties (+$375). C.J .Wilson is expected to take a turn here at Safeco, and we like the home team?s chances when he does. BEST BET: Mariners vs. C. Wilson.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 25
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Pirates have scored the fewest runs of any team in MLB (just under 2.9 per game), but they?ve been a tenacious money-maker anyway (+$245 so far). The Cubs look like a club that is already just going through the motions (2-8, -$680 in the past 10 days) and their starting rotation is in considerable disarray (4.12 ERA, ranked 12th in the National League). Pittsburgh checks in with the 4th best team ERA in the league (3.36) and they have a chance to move over .500 with a strong showing at PNC Park this weekend. They should take at least 2 of 3 from hapless Chicago. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
Colorado at Cincinnati (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Reds are closing the gap with St. Louis in the NL Central and they are poised to move into first place if they can keep it up. The Rockies look like perfect candidates to play the patsy here at Great American Ballpark. They are only 6-11 outside of Coors Field (-$470) and they are only 2-8 in their last 10 (-$725). Johnny Cueto continues to excel (+$580, 1.97 in his first nine starts) so we?ll back him when he takes his turn. The Reds are 15-5 in day games (+$1090) so we?ll use that angle as well. BEST BET: Cueto/Reds in day games.
Washington at Atlanta (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The NL East looks like it?s going to be very interesting. Last year the teams split 18 games, good for a +$420 Washington profit. Their pitching is the best in the league (2.98 team ERA), considerably better than the home team?s (4.07). But they?ve struggled at the plate, and Atlanta is the top team in the division at the moment. The Nationals? most promising game is the one started by Gio Gonzalez. He?s led his team to victories in 7 of his 8 starts (+$590) and has an ERA of 2.22. The Braves are basically .500 vs. southpaws, and haven?t turned a profit against them. BEST BET: G. Gonzalez.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Two playoff teams from 2011, both of whom have been a big disappointment so far this season. The Diamondbacks aren?t getting the quality pitching they enjoyed last year (4.25 team ERA, ranked 13th in the NL) and their lineup is nothing special. But the Brewers are only 7-13 outside of Miller Park (-$770) and their pitching is even worse (4.62). Lots of questions as these teams look to regroup. We?ll steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Houston at L.A. Dodgers (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Dodgers have the very best record in MLB as we head into Memorial Day weekend, quite an achievement given they were considered unlikely to contend. They have an 19-4 record at Chavez Ravine (+$1420), the pitching has been fantastic (2.99 team ERA) and they rank 4th in hitting in the NL as well (.264 BA). They took 2 of 3 from the Astros at Minute Maid Park, and while Houston has been better than expected, they?re still quite bad, particularly on the road (5-13, -$560). Prices may be too high, but we have to take the home team or pass. BEST BET: Dodgers at -160 or less.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Orioles swept a pair when they met before (+$235) and they?ve been turning heads as they stand atop the AL East (27-15, +$1805). But the Royals are tempting, considering their impressive numbers vs. righthanders outside of Kaufman Stadium (10-6, +$1025). Their starting pitching has been better (3.23 ERA among starters in their last 10). They?ll no doubt be huge underdogs throughout this series, so if we see a price that looks inflated we?ll jump on the visiting underdog. BEST BET: Royals at +175 or better.
Tampa Bay at Boston (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox are starting to make up some ground (8-3, +$490 in their last 11) and they are poised to move out of last place, possibly dropping the Yankees into the division basement in the process. Tampa has been a losing proposition vs. lefthanders (5-8, -$380). But Tampa is tough on righties (+$1040), while Boston is just the opposite (+$150 vs. southpaws at home, -$690 vs. righties). We?ll play these matchups accordingly. BEST BET: Rays when righty meets righty/ Red Sox when lefty meets lefty.
Toronto at Texas (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Prices climbed absurdly high on Texas after their torrid start. Now that they?ve split their last 12 games they are close to break even, and that suggests an opportunity to use Toronto. The Blue Jays have outstanding pitching (3.61 team ERA), most notably Brandon Morrow, who checks in with a stellar 1.90 ERA after eight starts. Texas has lost money at Arlington (-$450) so take the hot Toronto righthander when he goes. BEST BET: Morrow.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Twins have won a few more games recently, but they?ve been unbelievably bad up to this point. Their pitching is the worst in baseball (5.14 ERA) and the hitting isn?t much better (.243 team BA, 11th in the American League). The Tigers have struggled, but they have a promising young southpaw in Drew Smyly (2.89 ERA in eight starts), who?s slated to take a turn at Target Field. Minnesota has lost money at home in 2012 (-$585). BEST BET: Smyly.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
These teams have already played nine games with each other, with the Chisox taking five (+$120). But the Indians have been the big story in the AL Central up to this point, and they come into US Cellular with a 10-3 record vs. righthanders on the road (+$10 with 5.5 runs per game). We?ll avoid Jake Peavy (+$340, 2.39 ERA), who?s rejuvenated his career in Chicago after several injury plagued seasons. But none of the home teams other righties gives us cause for concern, so we?ll stick with the visiting Tribe in the right situation. BEST BET: Indians vs. all righthanders except Peavy.
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
These are dark days for the beleaguered Yankees, as the rash of injuries they?ve suffered has begun to take its toll. The Athletics are far from an elite club, but they have one of the top mound corps in the league (3.64 team ERA) and they check in with an 8-5 record against lefthanders (+$555 with a respectable 4.3 runs per game). It?s not expected that they?ll face Andy Pettitte, but C.C. Sabathia is due to take a turn in this series. He?s looked very ordinary in his recent outings (4.85 ERA last two) so grab the underdog price on the home team when he goes. BEST BET: Athletics vs. Sabathia.
BEGINNING MONDAY MAY 28
Washington at Miami (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Nationals swept a pair in the teams? first meeting (+$200) and they?ll be up against a Marlins team that has lost money in games played here in Miami (-$235). But Washington?s two top hurlers, Strasburg & Gonzalez, are likely to miss this series, and Miami has a trio of outstanding arms in Anibal Sanchez (2.32), Mark Buehrle (3.17) and Carlos Zambrano (1.96), at least a couple of whom should see action. PREFERRED: A. Sanchez/Buehrle/C. Zambrano.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Mets have punished the Phillies in head to head play up to this point (5-1, +$735) and they?ve been a tremendous money-maker against righthanders (+$1040). The Phillies have had a terrible time dealing with lefthanders (only 3-8, -$820) and they?ll no doubt face at least one in this series. We?ll go with New York when they do. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. Philly righthanders.
St, Louis at Atlanta (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Cardinals had absolutely no success when they squared off against Atlanta the first time (0-3, -$425), as the Braves exacted a measure of revenge for stealing the wildcard slot from them on the last day of the 2011 regular season. They?ve lost money against righthanders so far in 2012 (-$480) and Atlanta has a quality trio, at least a couple of whom will be on the hill at Turner Field for this series. PREFERRED: Beachy/Hanson/T. Hudson.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Bucs are a very competitive squad despite a severe lack of offense, but the Reds are not a team they match up against particularly well. The Pirates are only 5-8 against righthanders at PNC Park (-$285), and they?ll be facing a Cincinnati rotation that does not have any southpaws. The Reds have been unbeatable in day games this year (15-5, +$1090) so we?ll use them in the series opener on Monday. PREFERRED: Reds in day games.
San Diego at Chicago Cubs (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Padres can?t hit a lick (.219 team BA) but they rank high on the list of quality pitching teams in the NL (3.45 team ERA) and they may be able to score some victories here at Wrigley. The Cubs are a pitiful 9-15 at home (-$620), a losing proposition just as they were in 2011 (-$630). They have lost 8 of their last 10 games played (-$680) and their starters are floundering (5.52 in those games). If the price is right back San Diego. PREFERRED: Padres as underdogs.
Houston at Colorado (4) 28th (DH), 30th, 31st
The Astros have managed to turn a modest overall profit, but that horrible 5-13 road record (-$570) will keep us from using them. But Colorado has been a bad bet here at Coors Field (-$760) and their pitching has been the worst in the league (5.05 team ERA). We?d just as soon sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at San Francisco (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Diamondbacks have already taken 4 of 6 from this team in head to head play (+$170) and San Francisco still can?t get the job done against righthanders (1316, -$540). Ian Kennedy?s numbers aren?t so good. but he has a 3.64 ERA in five starts on the road, so he?s worth a shot here at ATT Park. PREFERRED: Kennedy.
Milwaukee at L.A. Dodgers (4) 28th, 29th, 30th, 31st
The Dodgers are tearing up the league at the moment. They?ve won 8 of their last 10 (+625), averaging 5.1 runs per game with a 1.91 ERA among starters). The Brewers haven?t had any success when they venture outside of Miller Park (7-13, -$770) so stick with the hot home team at any price. PREFERRED: Dodgers in all games.
Detroit at Boston (4) 28th, 29th, 30th, 31st
The Red Sox were swept by the Tigers when they visited Comerica Park (-$305), and even though they?ve moved up a bit in the standings we?re inclined to stick with Detroit. They have a formidable duo in Justin Verlander (2.14 ERA) and Doug Fister (1.59), both of whom should see action. Boston is only 5-9 vs. righthanders here at Fenway (-$690). PREFERRED: Verlander/Fister.
Oakland at Minnesota (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Athletics have a staff ERA exactly 1.5 runs per game lower than Minnesota?s (3.64 as opposed to 5.14) and they?ve been very profitable on the road thus far (+$660). The Twins have been a disaster at Target Field this year (6-14, -$585) so we?ll grab the visitor throughout and look to come away from this four game set with at least a split. PREFERRED: Athletics in all games.
Chicago W. Sox at Tampa Bay (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Rays are tough on righties (+$1040) so we?ll stay away from Chicago when they start one. We prefer to use lefties against Tampa Bay (only 5-8, -$380 vs. southpaws), but only when the home team has a righty on the mound (Sox 11-6, +$585 vs. righties on the road). PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. Tampa Bay righthanders.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Royals have been hugely profitable in their road games this year (+$1085) and w like their chances here at Progressive Field. The Indians are only 4-8 vs. lefthanders in 2012 (-$445 with just 3.8 runs per game), so we?ll go with the Kansas City southpaws when they are available. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Indians.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Orioles have manhandled the Blue Jays in head to head meetings up to this point (5-1, +$545) and they?ve managed to produce a 15-6 record away from Camden Yards (+$1405). Jason Hammel is off to a terrific start (+$490, 3.12 ERA in eight starts) so we?ll use him here at Rogers Centre. PREFERRED: Hammel.
Seattle at Texas (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Mariners dropped 3 of 4 to Texas in an earlier meeting, but the Rangers have cooled off quite a bit (-$465 in their last 12). Seattle has performed well vs. lefthanders (+$375 with 4.7 runs per game) and they?ll no doubt face at least one or two when they visit Arlington. PREFERRED: Mariners vs. lefthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
With 25% of the season complete, the Yankees are limping along near the .500 level, and it?s been expensive for their backers (-$760 overall). But the Angels have been dreadful -$1610 with only 3.6 runs per game so far), so there are reasons to avoid both team at the moment, which we intend to do. PREFERRED: None.
BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 24
San Diego at N.Y. Mets (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Mets blew a golden opportunity to beat up on an NL weakling when they dropped 3 of 4 to the Padres at Petco Park (-$240). But they?ve performed well at CitiField this year (12-8, +$410) and they should manage to exact a measure of revenge this weekend. San Diego checks in with a pitiful .219 team BA, and they?ve averaged a full run per game less than New York. They are just 3-13 vs. lefthanders (-$1040, averaging a meager 2.6 runs per game in those contests). Staff ace Johan Santana checks in with a 2.89 ERA after eight starts, and should handle this visitor with ease. BEST BET: J.Santana.
San Francisco at Miami (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Giants were swept by this team at ATT park in an earlier series (-$375), having also dropped 4 of 6 to this club in 2011. Their team ERA has been dropping steadily in recent weeks, and is now almost identical to San Francisco?s (3.36). The Giants have lost money vs. righthanders in road games (-$300) and they?ll be facing some capable ones here in Miami, most notable Anibal Sanchez, who is off to the best start of his career (2.32 ERA in eight starts). We?ll get on board when he is on the mound. BEST BET: A. Sanchez.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Phillies dropped 6 of 9 to the World Champs in the 2011 regular season (-$530), going on to lose the NLDS to them as well. They are an outstanding hitting team (.279 team BA. tops in the NL) but they?ve been under-performing in recent days (2-8, -$830 in their last 10), while the Phillies have been moving up nicely (7-3, +$320 last 10, with 4.9 runs per game). But Philly?s pitching staff ranks a disappointing 10th in the league right now and their hitting is sill very ordinary. We?ll stay away from this one for now. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Seattle (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
Last year the Mariners couldn?t beat anybody (-$2210 overall) but they are clearly a better team right now, and the Angels are floundering (-$1610 so far in 2012). They are averaging 3.6 runs per game on offense, with Albert Pujols still performing shockingly below par. LA may pull itself together in time, but they?ve lost a lot of money on the road so far, and they are taking on a Seattle team that is making money vs. lefties (+$375). C.J .Wilson is expected to take a turn here at Safeco, and we like the home team?s chances when he does. BEST BET: Mariners vs. C. Wilson.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 25
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Pirates have scored the fewest runs of any team in MLB (just under 2.9 per game), but they?ve been a tenacious money-maker anyway (+$245 so far). The Cubs look like a club that is already just going through the motions (2-8, -$680 in the past 10 days) and their starting rotation is in considerable disarray (4.12 ERA, ranked 12th in the National League). Pittsburgh checks in with the 4th best team ERA in the league (3.36) and they have a chance to move over .500 with a strong showing at PNC Park this weekend. They should take at least 2 of 3 from hapless Chicago. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
Colorado at Cincinnati (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Reds are closing the gap with St. Louis in the NL Central and they are poised to move into first place if they can keep it up. The Rockies look like perfect candidates to play the patsy here at Great American Ballpark. They are only 6-11 outside of Coors Field (-$470) and they are only 2-8 in their last 10 (-$725). Johnny Cueto continues to excel (+$580, 1.97 in his first nine starts) so we?ll back him when he takes his turn. The Reds are 15-5 in day games (+$1090) so we?ll use that angle as well. BEST BET: Cueto/Reds in day games.
Washington at Atlanta (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The NL East looks like it?s going to be very interesting. Last year the teams split 18 games, good for a +$420 Washington profit. Their pitching is the best in the league (2.98 team ERA), considerably better than the home team?s (4.07). But they?ve struggled at the plate, and Atlanta is the top team in the division at the moment. The Nationals? most promising game is the one started by Gio Gonzalez. He?s led his team to victories in 7 of his 8 starts (+$590) and has an ERA of 2.22. The Braves are basically .500 vs. southpaws, and haven?t turned a profit against them. BEST BET: G. Gonzalez.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Two playoff teams from 2011, both of whom have been a big disappointment so far this season. The Diamondbacks aren?t getting the quality pitching they enjoyed last year (4.25 team ERA, ranked 13th in the NL) and their lineup is nothing special. But the Brewers are only 7-13 outside of Miller Park (-$770) and their pitching is even worse (4.62). Lots of questions as these teams look to regroup. We?ll steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Houston at L.A. Dodgers (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Dodgers have the very best record in MLB as we head into Memorial Day weekend, quite an achievement given they were considered unlikely to contend. They have an 19-4 record at Chavez Ravine (+$1420), the pitching has been fantastic (2.99 team ERA) and they rank 4th in hitting in the NL as well (.264 BA). They took 2 of 3 from the Astros at Minute Maid Park, and while Houston has been better than expected, they?re still quite bad, particularly on the road (5-13, -$560). Prices may be too high, but we have to take the home team or pass. BEST BET: Dodgers at -160 or less.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Orioles swept a pair when they met before (+$235) and they?ve been turning heads as they stand atop the AL East (27-15, +$1805). But the Royals are tempting, considering their impressive numbers vs. righthanders outside of Kaufman Stadium (10-6, +$1025). Their starting pitching has been better (3.23 ERA among starters in their last 10). They?ll no doubt be huge underdogs throughout this series, so if we see a price that looks inflated we?ll jump on the visiting underdog. BEST BET: Royals at +175 or better.
Tampa Bay at Boston (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox are starting to make up some ground (8-3, +$490 in their last 11) and they are poised to move out of last place, possibly dropping the Yankees into the division basement in the process. Tampa has been a losing proposition vs. lefthanders (5-8, -$380). But Tampa is tough on righties (+$1040), while Boston is just the opposite (+$150 vs. southpaws at home, -$690 vs. righties). We?ll play these matchups accordingly. BEST BET: Rays when righty meets righty/ Red Sox when lefty meets lefty.
Toronto at Texas (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Prices climbed absurdly high on Texas after their torrid start. Now that they?ve split their last 12 games they are close to break even, and that suggests an opportunity to use Toronto. The Blue Jays have outstanding pitching (3.61 team ERA), most notably Brandon Morrow, who checks in with a stellar 1.90 ERA after eight starts. Texas has lost money at Arlington (-$450) so take the hot Toronto righthander when he goes. BEST BET: Morrow.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Twins have won a few more games recently, but they?ve been unbelievably bad up to this point. Their pitching is the worst in baseball (5.14 ERA) and the hitting isn?t much better (.243 team BA, 11th in the American League). The Tigers have struggled, but they have a promising young southpaw in Drew Smyly (2.89 ERA in eight starts), who?s slated to take a turn at Target Field. Minnesota has lost money at home in 2012 (-$585). BEST BET: Smyly.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
These teams have already played nine games with each other, with the Chisox taking five (+$120). But the Indians have been the big story in the AL Central up to this point, and they come into US Cellular with a 10-3 record vs. righthanders on the road (+$10 with 5.5 runs per game). We?ll avoid Jake Peavy (+$340, 2.39 ERA), who?s rejuvenated his career in Chicago after several injury plagued seasons. But none of the home teams other righties gives us cause for concern, so we?ll stick with the visiting Tribe in the right situation. BEST BET: Indians vs. all righthanders except Peavy.
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
These are dark days for the beleaguered Yankees, as the rash of injuries they?ve suffered has begun to take its toll. The Athletics are far from an elite club, but they have one of the top mound corps in the league (3.64 team ERA) and they check in with an 8-5 record against lefthanders (+$555 with a respectable 4.3 runs per game). It?s not expected that they?ll face Andy Pettitte, but C.C. Sabathia is due to take a turn in this series. He?s looked very ordinary in his recent outings (4.85 ERA last two) so grab the underdog price on the home team when he goes. BEST BET: Athletics vs. Sabathia.
BEGINNING MONDAY MAY 28
Washington at Miami (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Nationals swept a pair in the teams? first meeting (+$200) and they?ll be up against a Marlins team that has lost money in games played here in Miami (-$235). But Washington?s two top hurlers, Strasburg & Gonzalez, are likely to miss this series, and Miami has a trio of outstanding arms in Anibal Sanchez (2.32), Mark Buehrle (3.17) and Carlos Zambrano (1.96), at least a couple of whom should see action. PREFERRED: A. Sanchez/Buehrle/C. Zambrano.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Mets have punished the Phillies in head to head play up to this point (5-1, +$735) and they?ve been a tremendous money-maker against righthanders (+$1040). The Phillies have had a terrible time dealing with lefthanders (only 3-8, -$820) and they?ll no doubt face at least one in this series. We?ll go with New York when they do. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. Philly righthanders.
St, Louis at Atlanta (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Cardinals had absolutely no success when they squared off against Atlanta the first time (0-3, -$425), as the Braves exacted a measure of revenge for stealing the wildcard slot from them on the last day of the 2011 regular season. They?ve lost money against righthanders so far in 2012 (-$480) and Atlanta has a quality trio, at least a couple of whom will be on the hill at Turner Field for this series. PREFERRED: Beachy/Hanson/T. Hudson.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Bucs are a very competitive squad despite a severe lack of offense, but the Reds are not a team they match up against particularly well. The Pirates are only 5-8 against righthanders at PNC Park (-$285), and they?ll be facing a Cincinnati rotation that does not have any southpaws. The Reds have been unbeatable in day games this year (15-5, +$1090) so we?ll use them in the series opener on Monday. PREFERRED: Reds in day games.
San Diego at Chicago Cubs (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Padres can?t hit a lick (.219 team BA) but they rank high on the list of quality pitching teams in the NL (3.45 team ERA) and they may be able to score some victories here at Wrigley. The Cubs are a pitiful 9-15 at home (-$620), a losing proposition just as they were in 2011 (-$630). They have lost 8 of their last 10 games played (-$680) and their starters are floundering (5.52 in those games). If the price is right back San Diego. PREFERRED: Padres as underdogs.
Houston at Colorado (4) 28th (DH), 30th, 31st
The Astros have managed to turn a modest overall profit, but that horrible 5-13 road record (-$570) will keep us from using them. But Colorado has been a bad bet here at Coors Field (-$760) and their pitching has been the worst in the league (5.05 team ERA). We?d just as soon sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at San Francisco (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Diamondbacks have already taken 4 of 6 from this team in head to head play (+$170) and San Francisco still can?t get the job done against righthanders (1316, -$540). Ian Kennedy?s numbers aren?t so good. but he has a 3.64 ERA in five starts on the road, so he?s worth a shot here at ATT Park. PREFERRED: Kennedy.
Milwaukee at L.A. Dodgers (4) 28th, 29th, 30th, 31st
The Dodgers are tearing up the league at the moment. They?ve won 8 of their last 10 (+625), averaging 5.1 runs per game with a 1.91 ERA among starters). The Brewers haven?t had any success when they venture outside of Miller Park (7-13, -$770) so stick with the hot home team at any price. PREFERRED: Dodgers in all games.
Detroit at Boston (4) 28th, 29th, 30th, 31st
The Red Sox were swept by the Tigers when they visited Comerica Park (-$305), and even though they?ve moved up a bit in the standings we?re inclined to stick with Detroit. They have a formidable duo in Justin Verlander (2.14 ERA) and Doug Fister (1.59), both of whom should see action. Boston is only 5-9 vs. righthanders here at Fenway (-$690). PREFERRED: Verlander/Fister.
Oakland at Minnesota (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Athletics have a staff ERA exactly 1.5 runs per game lower than Minnesota?s (3.64 as opposed to 5.14) and they?ve been very profitable on the road thus far (+$660). The Twins have been a disaster at Target Field this year (6-14, -$585) so we?ll grab the visitor throughout and look to come away from this four game set with at least a split. PREFERRED: Athletics in all games.
Chicago W. Sox at Tampa Bay (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Rays are tough on righties (+$1040) so we?ll stay away from Chicago when they start one. We prefer to use lefties against Tampa Bay (only 5-8, -$380 vs. southpaws), but only when the home team has a righty on the mound (Sox 11-6, +$585 vs. righties on the road). PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. Tampa Bay righthanders.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Royals have been hugely profitable in their road games this year (+$1085) and w like their chances here at Progressive Field. The Indians are only 4-8 vs. lefthanders in 2012 (-$445 with just 3.8 runs per game), so we?ll go with the Kansas City southpaws when they are available. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Indians.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Orioles have manhandled the Blue Jays in head to head meetings up to this point (5-1, +$545) and they?ve managed to produce a 15-6 record away from Camden Yards (+$1405). Jason Hammel is off to a terrific start (+$490, 3.12 ERA in eight starts) so we?ll use him here at Rogers Centre. PREFERRED: Hammel.
Seattle at Texas (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Mariners dropped 3 of 4 to Texas in an earlier meeting, but the Rangers have cooled off quite a bit (-$465 in their last 12). Seattle has performed well vs. lefthanders (+$375 with 4.7 runs per game) and they?ll no doubt face at least one or two when they visit Arlington. PREFERRED: Mariners vs. lefthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
With 25% of the season complete, the Yankees are limping along near the .500 level, and it?s been expensive for their backers (-$760 overall). But the Angels have been dreadful -$1610 with only 3.6 runs per game so far), so there are reasons to avoid both team at the moment, which we intend to do. PREFERRED: None.
