BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 11
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
After a 2-1 start against the Pirates, the Cubs were dealt with very harshly at Turner Field, suffering a sweep at the hands of Atlanta. And with a team that is batting just .175 as a team over the first week of the season, they?ll have their hands full with the outstanding Giants? mound corps, which is off to another strong start. San Francisco manhandled this team in 2012 (6-1, +$420 in head to head play), and they were spectacular vs. lefthanders (+$2155). They?ll get at least one shot to build on that profit when they take on Travis Wood, who?ll be making a start this weekend at Wrigley. BEST BET: Giants vs. T. Wood.
Texas at Seattle (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mariners have a tantalizing pitching duo in Felix Hernandez & Hisashi Iwakuma, but after that the pickings are slim. And as was the case in 2012, the team is again unable to perform effectively at the plate, saddled with a .218 team BA after seven days. The Rangers are getting some outstanding pitching (3.27 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL) so if we avoid Seattle?s two best hurlers, we should get some excellent value on the visitor here at Safeco. BEST BET: Rangers unless opposed by F. Hernandez or Iwakuma.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 12
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Pirates have the makings of a top quality rotation (3.35 team ERA, 6th best in the league), but they are hitting a pitiful .117 after six days, scoring a mere eight runs in all those contests combined. The Reds are looking very sharp atop the NL East, and their all-righty rotation is looking sharp (3.00 ERA). They turned a modest profit vs. the Bucs in 2012 (+$215) and racked up a 21-10 record vs. lefthanders outside of Great American Ballpark (+$1080). They?ll get a shot at a couple of southpaws at PNC Park this weekend, and we?ll use them when they do. BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Washington (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
Early showdown between the top contenders in the NL East, with both teams looking very strong over the first week. The teams were evenly matched last year, with the Nationals eking out out a modest profit (+$110) in their meetings, and they appear well balanced again. Atlanta was less effective vs. lefthanders last season (-$630 overall, averaging just 3.9 runs per game on offense) and Washington has one of the best in Gio Gonzalez. He was a tremendous value last year (+$1465, 2.89 ERA in 32 starts) and he pitched six scoreless innings in his 2013 debut. BEST BET: G. Gonzalez.
Philadelphia at Miami (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
These former stalwarts of the NL East are a pretty pitiful pair these days, with neither likely to compete in 2013. The Phillies are known for their big-name starting rotation, but the results after one week have not been pretty (7.10 team ERA after six games). Roy Halladay followed a lousy spring with a dreadful first start, and the Phillies are justifiably concerned. But the Marlins are limping along at just 1-5 so far (-$350), having averaged just 2.3 runs per game at the plate. We?re not interested in either side at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at St. Louis (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Brewers have some interesting pitchers, and the signing of Kyle Lohse, who looked sharp in his first outing, should help a great deal. But last week?s home-stand was brutal (1-5, -$530) and now they venture into an inhospitable Busch Stadium to take on the tenacious Cardinals. Milwaukee was a total disaster outside of Miller Park last season (only 34-47, -$1655) and it?s hard to feel much confidence following last week?s fiasco. St. Louis is averaging 5.8 runs per game vs. righthanders so far this year, and they?ll be up against an all-righty Milwaukee rotation in this series. They should take at least 2 out of 3 without much difficulty. BEST BET: Cardinals in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
This shapes up as an interesting matchup. The Dodgers have looked superb in the early going, with a staff ERA of just 1.20 after six games, allowing just one earned run per game so far. But they find themselves in 3rd place in the NL West because Arizona has jumped out to a 5-1 start (+$405) with an offense averaging over six runs per game so far (.293 team BA). LA did not fare well in head to head competition with the Diamondbacks in 2012 (6-12, -$740) and their bats continue to flounder (.231 BA, 2.9 runs per game). If we see some underdog prices on the home team here at Chase Field, we?ll take a shot with Arizona. BEST BET: Diamondbacks as underdogs.
Colorado at San Diego (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Rockies had one of the worst seasons in franchise history in 2012 (64-98, -$1940) but they?ve jumped out to an unexpected 5-1 start (+$470) and their momentum could carry them here at Petco Park, as they take on a San Diego team that is yet to get on track (1-5, -$365 with 2.3 runs per game). Surprisingly, Colorado has gotten some good starting pitchers, most notably Jhoulys Chacin, who?s amassed a 1.35 ERA after two starts). He?ll take his next turn against the Padres in this series, and he deserves consideration. BEST BET: J. Chacin.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Indians are showing signs of life under Terry Francona, and their pitching hasn?t been that bad (3.40 team ERA), but the big story seems to be the White Sox. They finished the week atop the AL Central, with a 2.41 team ERA, best in the American League. Part of the story has been the ascendancy of Chris Sale to #1 status. He emerged as a top starter in 2012 (+$460, 3.06 ERA in 29 starts), and he?s been on fire so far. (+$200, 1.11). The Tribe was only 18-35 vs. southpaws last year (-$1380 with 3.7 runs per game) and despite beating up on David Price last Sunday, they are only 1-2 vs. lefties in the early going. Go with Chicago?s lefty ace. BEST BET: Sale.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Yanks salvaged what would have been a complete catastrophe of an opening week when they spanked Justin Verlander at Comerica Park last Sunday. But New York is in sorry shape in all facets of the game (5.37 team ERA, .242 team BA averaging just 4.0 runs per game) and their beleaguered mound corps could have a tough time vs. the Orioles, who are hitting .301 while averaging 6.1 runs per game. The O?s made a profit vs. this team last year by splitting the 18 games played (+$440) and they made a fortune outside of Camden Yards (+$2730). They?ll be available at a good price vs. the collection of cast-offs masquerading as the Yankees. BEST BET: Orioles in all games.
Tampa Bay at Boston (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Red Sox are playing far better than anyone expected, with a 3.29 team ERA and a .301 team BA, and they find themselves with a 4-2 mark after potentially difficult road series vs. New York and Toronto. Still, we?d hesitate to read too much into Tampa?s league worst 5.50 team ERA. In the long they should prove far more formidable than the cobbled together Boston staff. Alex Cobb came up with a scoreless effort in his first start this year, and he?s set to return to the hill here at Fenway Park. The Red Sox were huge money-burners against righthanders in 2012 (-$3590) so we?ll look for the young Tampa righthander to notch another victory. BEST BET: Cobb.
Toronto at Kansas City (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
After all the hype and high profile off-season moves, the Blue Jays ended the week with an ugly 2-4 record, with star acquisition RA Dickey imploding in a 13-0 rout by the Red Sox. Now they head out on the road, a setting where they under-performed in 2012, particularly vs. righthanders (22-35, -$925). The Royals posted a respectable 3-3 mark to open the 2013 campaign, and the offense was effective (.264 team BA, averaging 5.0 runs per game). They have an all-righty rotation which may be able to thwart Toronto, a team that has much to prove. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Blue Jays.
Detroit at Oakland (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Athletics are looking good to start the year (5-2, +$250), relying on the outstanding pitching that led them to 94 wins and an AL West title last year (2.86 ERA so far). They fared especially well at home last year (+$1980) and we?re not sold on the Tigers, who are hitting reasonably well but coming up short on the mound (4.64 ERA so far). Detroit was a big loser for their backers in games played outside of Comerica Park last year (-$1400) so we?ll take our chances with Oakland, as they look to keep ahead of their formidable division foes. BEST BET: Athletics in all games
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Houston at L.A. Angels (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
After winning their opener as the newest member of the American League, it?s been all downhill for the hapless Astros (1-5, -$350 so far). They are at or near the bottom of the league in both hitting (.199 team BA) and pitching (5.00 ERA) and they seem poised to repeat last year?s 107 loss debacle (-$2955). But the Angels are off to a sluggish start, most notably with Josh Hamilton who?s to get on track. The team checks in with a .243 team BA, and we don?t like the idea of laying prices of over 2 to 1 so early in the season. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Minnesota (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Twins opened with a 4-2 week (+$375), taking 2 of 3 from the Tigers before taking 2 of 3 from the Orioles at Camden Yards. The Mets also wrapped up the week at 4-2, albeit against decidedly weaker competition. Despite Minnesota?s good start, we like the Mets in this spot. Their pitching has been way better than expected (2.33 team ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and they racked up a tidy profit vs. righthanders away from CitiField in 2012 (+$715). The Twins were big losers here at Target Field last year (-$1820) and none of their starters concerns us. BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 15
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Pirates turned a nice profit against the Cardinals last season (+$440), but their offensive woes thus far make using them unfeasible. The Cardinals averaged 5.7 runs per game vs. lefthanders in 2012 (+$965 profit), and Pittsburgh?s rotation is heavy on southpaws at the moment. PREFERRED: Cardinals vs. lefthanders.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Big edge to the Reds here at Great American Ballpark, going against a Philly team that ended the season?s first week with a 7.10 team ERA (-$225 overall). Cincinnati is averaging a healthy 6.3 runs per game in the early going, so the Phillies will be fortunate to salvage a single victory in this series. PREFERRED: Reds in all games.
Washington at Miami (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nationals fared extremely well on the road vs. righties last season (7-20, +$1855) and their outstanding pitching staff should make short work of a Miami team that is averaging just 2.3 runs per game so far. All of Washington?s starters except Dan Haren looked very sharp in their initial appearances, so play this series accordingly. PREFERRED: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann & Detwiler vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Colorado (4) 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets dropped 4 of 6 to a terrible Colorado team in 2012 (-$575) and the team they?ll be facing in this series has looked sharp in the early going (5-1, +$470). They were only 21-38 (-$1595) vs. lefthanders last year, so take a shot with Jeff Francis, who is due to take a turn here at Coors Field. PREFERRED: Francis.
San Diego at L.A. Dodgers (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Padres have produced dreadful numbers to open the new year (6.43 team ERA, .204 team BA), so we don?t see them giving the Dodgers much of a fight here at Chavez Ravine. LA has been the best pitching team by far (1.00 ERA), but with prices likely to be prohibitively high we?ll steer clear. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (4) 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th
The White Sox rotation had a terrific opening week (2.41 team ERA, best in the AL), while the highly touted Blue Jays have really floundered (-$430). They were ineffective in night games in 2012 (-$1440) and all four of these contests are slated to take place in the evening. We could catch some nice underdog prices on a visitor who should do no worse than a split. PREFERRED: White Sox in all games.
L.A. Angels at Minnesota (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
We?d be inclined to find a spot where we could use the Twins. who jumped out to a profitable 4-2 opening week (+$375) while the Angels struggled. But Minnesota was such a disaster here at Target Field last season (-$1820) that we??re reluctant to try our luck. We?ll take another look on game day. PREFERRED: None.
Houston at Oakland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Athletics fattened up at Houston?s expense last weekend. sweeping a three game set at Minute Maid Park, scoring 23 runs off the Astros? inept rotation (5.00). Houston was only 20-61 on the road last year (-$2695) so even with the expected high prices we should still turn a nice profit. PREFERRED: Athletics in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 16
San Francisco at Milwaukee (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Brewers had a lousy 1-5 start to the season (-$530) and they lost money in head to head play with the Giants in 2012 (-$210) But their numbers in night games at Miller Park were excellent last year (33-17. +$1065) and they?ll have Kyle Lohse (2.86 ERA last year) on the mound in a night game in this series. He looked sharp in his first start and looks like a solid value here. PREFERRED: Lohse.
Boston at Cleveland (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Terry Francona faces his old club for the first time, no doubt adding some fuel to the Indians? efforts here at Progressive Field. They?ve looked good on the mound (3.40 team ERA) and we?re far from sold on Boston, a team that lost a fortune in 2012 (-$3760). If the price is right we?ll back the Tribe. PREFERRED: Indians at -120 or less.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Orioles turned a nice profit vs. the Rays in 2012 (+$420) and they picked up some money when they took 2 of 3 at Tropicana Field to start the new campaign (+$165). Tampa?s pitching was awful the first week, with Cy Young champ David Price looking less than stellar. Keep riding the O?s for now. PREFERRED: Orioles in all games.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mariners were a profitable item vs. righthanders last season (+$580 overall) and they have a pair of righthanders who we?re anxious to use here at Safeco. At least one should be available. The Tigers lost money vs. this team in head to head play in 2012 (1-5, -$700). PREFERRED: F. Hernandez/Iwakuma.
Arizona at N.Y. Yankees (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Diamondbacks are off to a strong start (+$405), sweeping the Brewers in their first road series of the year. The Yanks are in sorry shape (5.37 ERA, .242 team BA) so grab the visitor if the price is right. PREFERRED: Diamondbacks at +115 or better.
Kansas City at Atlanta (2) 16th, 17th
The Royals are a tempting underdog (+$475 as visitors in 2012), but they are using nothing but righthanders in their rotation, and the Braves were devastating in that situation last year (+$2265). We?ll take a pass on this one. PREFERRED: None.
Texas at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cubs aren?t hitting, but their pitching hasn?t been all that bad so far (3.75 team ERA) and they were profitable in day games at Wrigley Field last year (+$835). Take a shot with Chicago in Thursday?s afternoon contest. PREFERRED: Cubs in day games.
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
After a 2-1 start against the Pirates, the Cubs were dealt with very harshly at Turner Field, suffering a sweep at the hands of Atlanta. And with a team that is batting just .175 as a team over the first week of the season, they?ll have their hands full with the outstanding Giants? mound corps, which is off to another strong start. San Francisco manhandled this team in 2012 (6-1, +$420 in head to head play), and they were spectacular vs. lefthanders (+$2155). They?ll get at least one shot to build on that profit when they take on Travis Wood, who?ll be making a start this weekend at Wrigley. BEST BET: Giants vs. T. Wood.
Texas at Seattle (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mariners have a tantalizing pitching duo in Felix Hernandez & Hisashi Iwakuma, but after that the pickings are slim. And as was the case in 2012, the team is again unable to perform effectively at the plate, saddled with a .218 team BA after seven days. The Rangers are getting some outstanding pitching (3.27 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL) so if we avoid Seattle?s two best hurlers, we should get some excellent value on the visitor here at Safeco. BEST BET: Rangers unless opposed by F. Hernandez or Iwakuma.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 12
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Pirates have the makings of a top quality rotation (3.35 team ERA, 6th best in the league), but they are hitting a pitiful .117 after six days, scoring a mere eight runs in all those contests combined. The Reds are looking very sharp atop the NL East, and their all-righty rotation is looking sharp (3.00 ERA). They turned a modest profit vs. the Bucs in 2012 (+$215) and racked up a 21-10 record vs. lefthanders outside of Great American Ballpark (+$1080). They?ll get a shot at a couple of southpaws at PNC Park this weekend, and we?ll use them when they do. BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders.
Atlanta at Washington (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
Early showdown between the top contenders in the NL East, with both teams looking very strong over the first week. The teams were evenly matched last year, with the Nationals eking out out a modest profit (+$110) in their meetings, and they appear well balanced again. Atlanta was less effective vs. lefthanders last season (-$630 overall, averaging just 3.9 runs per game on offense) and Washington has one of the best in Gio Gonzalez. He was a tremendous value last year (+$1465, 2.89 ERA in 32 starts) and he pitched six scoreless innings in his 2013 debut. BEST BET: G. Gonzalez.
Philadelphia at Miami (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
These former stalwarts of the NL East are a pretty pitiful pair these days, with neither likely to compete in 2013. The Phillies are known for their big-name starting rotation, but the results after one week have not been pretty (7.10 team ERA after six games). Roy Halladay followed a lousy spring with a dreadful first start, and the Phillies are justifiably concerned. But the Marlins are limping along at just 1-5 so far (-$350), having averaged just 2.3 runs per game at the plate. We?re not interested in either side at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at St. Louis (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Brewers have some interesting pitchers, and the signing of Kyle Lohse, who looked sharp in his first outing, should help a great deal. But last week?s home-stand was brutal (1-5, -$530) and now they venture into an inhospitable Busch Stadium to take on the tenacious Cardinals. Milwaukee was a total disaster outside of Miller Park last season (only 34-47, -$1655) and it?s hard to feel much confidence following last week?s fiasco. St. Louis is averaging 5.8 runs per game vs. righthanders so far this year, and they?ll be up against an all-righty Milwaukee rotation in this series. They should take at least 2 out of 3 without much difficulty. BEST BET: Cardinals in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
This shapes up as an interesting matchup. The Dodgers have looked superb in the early going, with a staff ERA of just 1.20 after six games, allowing just one earned run per game so far. But they find themselves in 3rd place in the NL West because Arizona has jumped out to a 5-1 start (+$405) with an offense averaging over six runs per game so far (.293 team BA). LA did not fare well in head to head competition with the Diamondbacks in 2012 (6-12, -$740) and their bats continue to flounder (.231 BA, 2.9 runs per game). If we see some underdog prices on the home team here at Chase Field, we?ll take a shot with Arizona. BEST BET: Diamondbacks as underdogs.
Colorado at San Diego (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Rockies had one of the worst seasons in franchise history in 2012 (64-98, -$1940) but they?ve jumped out to an unexpected 5-1 start (+$470) and their momentum could carry them here at Petco Park, as they take on a San Diego team that is yet to get on track (1-5, -$365 with 2.3 runs per game). Surprisingly, Colorado has gotten some good starting pitchers, most notably Jhoulys Chacin, who?s amassed a 1.35 ERA after two starts). He?ll take his next turn against the Padres in this series, and he deserves consideration. BEST BET: J. Chacin.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Indians are showing signs of life under Terry Francona, and their pitching hasn?t been that bad (3.40 team ERA), but the big story seems to be the White Sox. They finished the week atop the AL Central, with a 2.41 team ERA, best in the American League. Part of the story has been the ascendancy of Chris Sale to #1 status. He emerged as a top starter in 2012 (+$460, 3.06 ERA in 29 starts), and he?s been on fire so far. (+$200, 1.11). The Tribe was only 18-35 vs. southpaws last year (-$1380 with 3.7 runs per game) and despite beating up on David Price last Sunday, they are only 1-2 vs. lefties in the early going. Go with Chicago?s lefty ace. BEST BET: Sale.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Yanks salvaged what would have been a complete catastrophe of an opening week when they spanked Justin Verlander at Comerica Park last Sunday. But New York is in sorry shape in all facets of the game (5.37 team ERA, .242 team BA averaging just 4.0 runs per game) and their beleaguered mound corps could have a tough time vs. the Orioles, who are hitting .301 while averaging 6.1 runs per game. The O?s made a profit vs. this team last year by splitting the 18 games played (+$440) and they made a fortune outside of Camden Yards (+$2730). They?ll be available at a good price vs. the collection of cast-offs masquerading as the Yankees. BEST BET: Orioles in all games.
Tampa Bay at Boston (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Red Sox are playing far better than anyone expected, with a 3.29 team ERA and a .301 team BA, and they find themselves with a 4-2 mark after potentially difficult road series vs. New York and Toronto. Still, we?d hesitate to read too much into Tampa?s league worst 5.50 team ERA. In the long they should prove far more formidable than the cobbled together Boston staff. Alex Cobb came up with a scoreless effort in his first start this year, and he?s set to return to the hill here at Fenway Park. The Red Sox were huge money-burners against righthanders in 2012 (-$3590) so we?ll look for the young Tampa righthander to notch another victory. BEST BET: Cobb.
Toronto at Kansas City (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
After all the hype and high profile off-season moves, the Blue Jays ended the week with an ugly 2-4 record, with star acquisition RA Dickey imploding in a 13-0 rout by the Red Sox. Now they head out on the road, a setting where they under-performed in 2012, particularly vs. righthanders (22-35, -$925). The Royals posted a respectable 3-3 mark to open the 2013 campaign, and the offense was effective (.264 team BA, averaging 5.0 runs per game). They have an all-righty rotation which may be able to thwart Toronto, a team that has much to prove. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Blue Jays.
Detroit at Oakland (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Athletics are looking good to start the year (5-2, +$250), relying on the outstanding pitching that led them to 94 wins and an AL West title last year (2.86 ERA so far). They fared especially well at home last year (+$1980) and we?re not sold on the Tigers, who are hitting reasonably well but coming up short on the mound (4.64 ERA so far). Detroit was a big loser for their backers in games played outside of Comerica Park last year (-$1400) so we?ll take our chances with Oakland, as they look to keep ahead of their formidable division foes. BEST BET: Athletics in all games
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Houston at L.A. Angels (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
After winning their opener as the newest member of the American League, it?s been all downhill for the hapless Astros (1-5, -$350 so far). They are at or near the bottom of the league in both hitting (.199 team BA) and pitching (5.00 ERA) and they seem poised to repeat last year?s 107 loss debacle (-$2955). But the Angels are off to a sluggish start, most notably with Josh Hamilton who?s to get on track. The team checks in with a .243 team BA, and we don?t like the idea of laying prices of over 2 to 1 so early in the season. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Minnesota (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Twins opened with a 4-2 week (+$375), taking 2 of 3 from the Tigers before taking 2 of 3 from the Orioles at Camden Yards. The Mets also wrapped up the week at 4-2, albeit against decidedly weaker competition. Despite Minnesota?s good start, we like the Mets in this spot. Their pitching has been way better than expected (2.33 team ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and they racked up a tidy profit vs. righthanders away from CitiField in 2012 (+$715). The Twins were big losers here at Target Field last year (-$1820) and none of their starters concerns us. BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 15
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Pirates turned a nice profit against the Cardinals last season (+$440), but their offensive woes thus far make using them unfeasible. The Cardinals averaged 5.7 runs per game vs. lefthanders in 2012 (+$965 profit), and Pittsburgh?s rotation is heavy on southpaws at the moment. PREFERRED: Cardinals vs. lefthanders.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Big edge to the Reds here at Great American Ballpark, going against a Philly team that ended the season?s first week with a 7.10 team ERA (-$225 overall). Cincinnati is averaging a healthy 6.3 runs per game in the early going, so the Phillies will be fortunate to salvage a single victory in this series. PREFERRED: Reds in all games.
Washington at Miami (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nationals fared extremely well on the road vs. righties last season (7-20, +$1855) and their outstanding pitching staff should make short work of a Miami team that is averaging just 2.3 runs per game so far. All of Washington?s starters except Dan Haren looked very sharp in their initial appearances, so play this series accordingly. PREFERRED: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann & Detwiler vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Colorado (4) 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets dropped 4 of 6 to a terrible Colorado team in 2012 (-$575) and the team they?ll be facing in this series has looked sharp in the early going (5-1, +$470). They were only 21-38 (-$1595) vs. lefthanders last year, so take a shot with Jeff Francis, who is due to take a turn here at Coors Field. PREFERRED: Francis.
San Diego at L.A. Dodgers (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Padres have produced dreadful numbers to open the new year (6.43 team ERA, .204 team BA), so we don?t see them giving the Dodgers much of a fight here at Chavez Ravine. LA has been the best pitching team by far (1.00 ERA), but with prices likely to be prohibitively high we?ll steer clear. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (4) 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th
The White Sox rotation had a terrific opening week (2.41 team ERA, best in the AL), while the highly touted Blue Jays have really floundered (-$430). They were ineffective in night games in 2012 (-$1440) and all four of these contests are slated to take place in the evening. We could catch some nice underdog prices on a visitor who should do no worse than a split. PREFERRED: White Sox in all games.
L.A. Angels at Minnesota (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
We?d be inclined to find a spot where we could use the Twins. who jumped out to a profitable 4-2 opening week (+$375) while the Angels struggled. But Minnesota was such a disaster here at Target Field last season (-$1820) that we??re reluctant to try our luck. We?ll take another look on game day. PREFERRED: None.
Houston at Oakland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Athletics fattened up at Houston?s expense last weekend. sweeping a three game set at Minute Maid Park, scoring 23 runs off the Astros? inept rotation (5.00). Houston was only 20-61 on the road last year (-$2695) so even with the expected high prices we should still turn a nice profit. PREFERRED: Athletics in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 16
San Francisco at Milwaukee (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Brewers had a lousy 1-5 start to the season (-$530) and they lost money in head to head play with the Giants in 2012 (-$210) But their numbers in night games at Miller Park were excellent last year (33-17. +$1065) and they?ll have Kyle Lohse (2.86 ERA last year) on the mound in a night game in this series. He looked sharp in his first start and looks like a solid value here. PREFERRED: Lohse.
Boston at Cleveland (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Terry Francona faces his old club for the first time, no doubt adding some fuel to the Indians? efforts here at Progressive Field. They?ve looked good on the mound (3.40 team ERA) and we?re far from sold on Boston, a team that lost a fortune in 2012 (-$3760). If the price is right we?ll back the Tribe. PREFERRED: Indians at -120 or less.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Orioles turned a nice profit vs. the Rays in 2012 (+$420) and they picked up some money when they took 2 of 3 at Tropicana Field to start the new campaign (+$165). Tampa?s pitching was awful the first week, with Cy Young champ David Price looking less than stellar. Keep riding the O?s for now. PREFERRED: Orioles in all games.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mariners were a profitable item vs. righthanders last season (+$580 overall) and they have a pair of righthanders who we?re anxious to use here at Safeco. At least one should be available. The Tigers lost money vs. this team in head to head play in 2012 (1-5, -$700). PREFERRED: F. Hernandez/Iwakuma.
Arizona at N.Y. Yankees (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Diamondbacks are off to a strong start (+$405), sweeping the Brewers in their first road series of the year. The Yanks are in sorry shape (5.37 ERA, .242 team BA) so grab the visitor if the price is right. PREFERRED: Diamondbacks at +115 or better.
Kansas City at Atlanta (2) 16th, 17th
The Royals are a tempting underdog (+$475 as visitors in 2012), but they are using nothing but righthanders in their rotation, and the Braves were devastating in that situation last year (+$2265). We?ll take a pass on this one. PREFERRED: None.
Texas at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cubs aren?t hitting, but their pitching hasn?t been all that bad so far (3.75 team ERA) and they were profitable in day games at Wrigley Field last year (+$835). Take a shot with Chicago in Thursday?s afternoon contest. PREFERRED: Cubs in day games.
