series

[RAYMOND]

BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 7



Pittsburgh at San Diego (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th

We expect good things for the Padres in 2005 (see our NL Preview) but they could do no better than a 3-3 split with the Pirates last year (-$120), and could be vulnerable against a quality lefthander like Oliver Perez (+$745, 2.99 ERA), who will be available at a very favorable price in this series. The Padres were not a good betting proposition at Petco Park last year (-$1285) and were considerably less effective against southpaws (14-14, -$695 with only 3.75 runs per game). We?ll overlook Pittsburgh?s lackluster performance on the road in ?04 and try to steal a win with their staff ace, who was unwisely traded by San Diego a couple of years ago. PREFERRED: Perez.



BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 8



Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Cubs are a better team than the Brewers, but they start the season with a wounded mound corp, and could be vulnerable in the early going to a Milwaukee team that went 13-8 (+$1035) in road games vs. righthanders last year, averaging 4.7 runs per game in those contests. Chicago was a disaster money-wise vs. righties at Wrigley Field (only 26-31, -$2660) and they?ll be favored in all these games, heavily when Ben Sheets is not the Brewers? starter. The best time to make money on the league?s weak sisters is in the early going, and this set-up look like a golden opportunity. PREFERRED: Brewers when righty meets righty.

Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Cardinals were hugely profitable last year (+$2420), in large part because no one thought they were that good, and so the prices in the first half of the season were very favorable. That won?t be the case this time around, especially here at Busch Stadium. There?s a lot of pressure on Mark Mulder to come in and anchor this rotation, but his ERA last year was a hefty 4.43, and the Phillies were quite successful in 2004 on the road vs. lefthanders (12-8, +$525 with 5.1 runs per game). We?ll get a great price going against him this weekend, so we?re ready to jump on board. PREFERRED: Phillies vs. Mulder.

N.Y. Mets at Atlanta (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The home team would seem to have an edge over visitor, having beaten them 12 times in 19 meetings last year and compiling an overall money profit here at Turner Field (+$375). But this is an improved Met team and the Braves are known for their slow starts, so caution is advised. The Braves pitching was tops in the NL last year (3.74 team ERA) and should get even better with Tim Hudson in the rotation. So it?s hard to jump in on the visitor, though they?ve clearly upgraded offensively. We?ll check back on game day. PREFERRED: None.

Washington at Florida (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Marlins are going to challenge in the NL East, but we keep thinking about that pitiful record they compiled against righthanders in night games at Pro Player Stadium (19-24, -$1690). The Nationals will be sending Livan Hernandez (3.60 ERA in 35 starts) to the hill in this series for his second start of 2005, most likely in Saturday?s evening contest, probably as a small to medium range underdog. Take him if that is the case. PREFERRED: Hernandez in a night game.

Cincinnati at Houston (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Reds dropped 11 of 17 to the Astros last year (-$220) but they are an inviting side in this series nonetheless if they were taking on any lefthanders (+$1050 with 5.6 runs per game in that situation last year). But Houston is slated to send the trio of Clemens (2.98 ERA, Backe (3.80) and Oswalt (3.51) to the hill in this series. Bad news for a team that went 21-34 vs. righties on the road in ?04. But we have no urge to lay fat prices on the home team either. PREFERRED: None.

L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Dodgers were a huge money-maker in 2004, especially against righthanders (70-47, +$2145) while the Diamondbacks were racking up the worst losses of any team in the majors we?ve ever seen (51-111, -$6085). LA appears to have gotten much weaker during the off-season and we expect to be going against them when the season gets underway. But we can?t bring ourselves to get behind Arizona until they show some signs of life. PREFERRED: None.

Colorado at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Rockies struggled at Coors Field last year and their numbers vs. righthanders were atrocious. But they did remarkably well against lefthanders (+$1150 with 5.0 runs per game) and that makes them worth a long look in the right situation, particularly at what figures to be very inflated prices. The Giants could manage no better than 28-28 (-$1025) at home vs. righthanders last year, and they?ve taken a big hit with the loss of Barry Bonds. Don?t use any Colorado lefties (SF +$1145 vs. southpaws), but jump on the visitor if the right matchup is available. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. Giant lefthanders.

Boston at Toronto (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Red Sox dominated the hapless Blue Jays in 2004 (14-5, +$550), but this series is a classic sandwich affair for Boston, coming on the heels of a three game set at Yankee Stadium and leading up to opening day ceremonies for the world champions at Fenway Park. The Bosox were a poor play as visitors last season (-$1180 overall) and we anticipate a significant drop off this year in their win total, though prices will be higher than ever. Toronto has its weaknesses, but they are an outstanding value at this time and in this setting. PREFERRED: Blue Jays in all games.

Cleveland at Detroit (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

Both these teams were enormously profitable against righthanders last year (Indians +$1335, Tigers +$745) but both posted substantial losses against lefthanders (Indians -$1175, Tigers -$1430). Both teams

have a mix of righties and lefties in their respective locations. so it?s just a matter of sitting back and playing these situations as the occur. This looks like an excellent opportunity to cash in on a pair of division rivals looking for the early edge in the standings. PREFERRED: Leftanders when opposed by righthanders.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

As we discussed in the Boston-Toronto series, this is a sandwich series for NY, coming off a three game set against the Sox and going into Fenway Park on Monday. New York was deadly against lefties last year (36-12, +$1580 with 5.9 runs per game), but they were less effective against righties (-$1375 overall) while the O?s were just the opposite, including a sizzling hot 32-23 (+$1855) mark against righties on the road. So avoid Randy Johnson, and focus on the rest of the New York rotation. PREFERRED: Orioles when righty meets righty.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The A?s have tended to be slow starters in recent years, though considering the shape they are in after losing Mulder and Hudson, they we?re not confident they?ll pull it together. They were a lousy road team in ?04 (-$1045) while the young Devil Rays played remarkably well at Tropicana Field (+$790). Top starter Dewan Brazelton was profitable at home (+$450 with a 3.04 ERA) and looks like a nice proposition here in his second 2005 start. PREFERRED: Brazelton.

Chicago W. Sox at Minnesota (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Twins had the slight edge in head to head play last year (10-9, +$280) and they were a phenomenal 37-17 in night games at the Metrodome (+$1650). The White Sox had real problems handling southpaws last year, particularly in night games (only 10-31, -$2770) so it?s going to be hard to pass up Cy Young winner Johan Santana (+$1060, 2.61 ERA) in his second start of the season. We don?t like laying fat prices, but this time it?s worth it. PREFERRED: Santana.

 

[RAYMOND]

BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 11



Houston at N.Y. Mets (3) 11th, 13th, 14th

The Mets may be underdogs in some of these games, or perhaps very short favorites, and there might be some good opportunities to use them. They beat this team in 4 of 6 last year (4-2, +$500) and eked out a small profit vs. righties at Shea Stadium (+$280). The Astros did not perform well on the road vs. lefties (-$405 with only 3.8 runs per game) and New York has a capable pair who may see action. PREFERRED: Glavine & Ishii if opposed by righthanders.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

These teams will have played at PNC Park to open the season so check those results before jumping in. The Pirates were much better in head to head play (12-6, +$760) but were not impressive on the road (-$685 overall). But since we can?t work up any enthusiasm for the Brewers (-$1425 in ?05) we?ll stay away. PREFERRED: None.

San Diego at Chicago Cubs (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

We?re very high on the Padres this year and are anxious to use them in road games, where they proved to be so profitable in 2004 (+$1275). The Cubs tend to be overpriced. particularly here at Wrigley, and after watching them flounder at home vs. righthanders (26-31, -$2660) we?ll jump on the visitor when they send any of their top hurlers to the mound. PREFERRED: Peavy/Williams/Lawrence.

Philadelphia at Florida (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

The Marlins have dominated this team in head to head play the last few seasons (7-12, -$505 in 2004), but Florida was a lousy proposition at home last year (-$1580). The Phillies turned a profit on the road, including a solid 12-8 (+$525) mark against lefties. We?ll take a shot against Dontrelle Willis (-$795 in 04?) as the visitor looks to gain a measure of revenge. PREFERRED: Phillies vs. Willis.

Washington at Atlanta (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

This Nationals team didn?t stand a chance against the first place Braves when they were the Expos (4-15, -$855 last season) and even though Atlanta is prone to slow starts, it?s hard to use them at this time (Montreal averaged only 3.9 runs per game in 2004). We?ll look at how things shake out over the first week and re-evaluate this series as game day draws near. PREFERRED: None.

Colorado at Arizona (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

The Rockies got the best of the D?Backs in 2004 (13-6, +$815) but who didn?t? Colorado provided some value against lefthanded pitching last year (26-21. +$1150 with 5.0 runs per game) so if the home teams has a southpaw in their rotation we can use the visitor, otherwise we?ll pass. PREFERRED: Rockies vs. lefthanders.



L.A. Angels at Texas (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

We think the Angels are overrated and this matchup provides the perfect setting to capitalize on that belief. The Rangers were a terror here at Arlington Stadium, particularly against righthanders (39-18, +$2130) while the Angels were losing money against righthanders with great consistency (-$1090). We?ll be looking for future opportunities to bet against last year?s division champ. PREFERRED: Rangers when righty meets righty.

N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 11th, 13th, 14th

The Yankees are generally a better value as visitors, but it?s hard use righties vs. the Bosox at Fenway (+$1365 last year). The best situation would be another Randy Johnson-David Wells hookup, where we can take advantage of NY?s 36-12 (+$1580) record vs. lefthanders. while exploiting the home team?s difficulty when facing off against southpaws (-$990 in ?04). PREFERRED: Yankees when lefty meets lefty.

Chicago W. Sox at Cleveland (3) 11th, 13th, 14th

We pointed out last week that since both teams handle righthanders well (Indians +$1335, White Sox +$1725) while faring poorly vs. lefties (Tribe -$1175, Chicago -$2030), we can do well by simply playing the series accordingly, and pass anytime righty meets righty or when southpaws square off. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.

Seattle at Kansas City (3) 11th, 13th, 14th

We?re looking for a strong showing from the Mariners this year, and we don?t think much of the anemic Royals. But KC did have a winning record against lefties at Kaufman Stadium last season (14-11, +$535) and Seattle?s road numbers were atrocious (-$2325). But since we?re not prepared to back the home team we?ll be sitting this one out. PREFERRED: None.

Toronto at Oakland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th

Without Carlos Delgado, the Blue Jays look to us like a 60 win team, not surprising considering how badly they fell off in 2004 (-$1905 overall). The Athletics were an impressive 20-6 (+$1010) vs. lefties in this ballpark last year. so we?ll go against the visitor when they send Ted Lilly to the hill. PREFERRED: Athletics. vs. Lilly.



BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 12



San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (2) 12th, 13th

The Dodgers were unstoppable against righthanders in this ballpark last season, but they came up short against lefthanders (10-12, -$640 with only 3.9 runs per game), while the Giants proved to be a profitable road team (+$1215). We?ll jump on a pair of quality lefthanders. at least one of whom will hopefully get a start in this two game set. PREFERRED: Rueter/Lowry.

Cincinnati at St. Louis (2) 12th, 13th

The Reds were a solid money-maker last year, posting a nifty profit of +$1050 on the road vs. lefties). Depending on how the rotation falls, they might get to take a huge price against Mark Mulder. If that happens, we?ll overlook the Cardinals? stellar numbers at Busch Stadium and take the plunge with Cincy. PREFERRED: Reds vs. Mulder.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3) 12th, 13th, 14th

We?ll go with the Orioles anytime righthanders square off (Baltimore +$1855 vs. righties on the road, Tampa Bay 45-70, -$660 overall) and try out luck with the Devil Rays when lefties meet (TB +$705 vs. southpaws, Baltimore -$1030). PREFERRED: Orioles when righty meets righty/Devil Rays when lefty meets lefty.

Detroit at Minnesota (3) 12th, 13th, 14th

The Tigers were only 3-16 against lefties on the road last year (-$1240)

so a bet on Johan Santana is probably easy money. But we?re not sure he?ll start one of these games and even if he does the price will be much higher than we care to lay. Let?s pass. PREFERRED None.

 

[RAYMOND]

Kansas City at L.A. Angels (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Royals did post a profit against lefthanders last year (+$720 overall) and it might be tempting to take them against what we believe to be an overrated Angels squad. But they were 0-7 (-$700) in head to head play vs. this team, so we think it?s wise to avoid them in the early going. The Angels were not a good value in this ballpark last year, so we?ll stay on the sidelines for now. PREFERRED: None.

Texas at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th

The Rangers caught everyone by surprise last season, including an ineffective Seattle team, who they dispatched in 12 of 19 head to head contests (+$425). But we?re looking for a nice turnaround from the Mariners in 2005, especially if Joel Pineiro, Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche regain their form. Texas was only 21-31 on the road vs. righties (-$420) and for all their ineptitude, Seattle still managed to turn a profit vs. righties at Safeco (+$400). We?ll avoid lefthanders, and load up on the home team when the matchup is to our liking. PREFERRED: Mariners when righty meets righty.

 

[RAYMOND]

AL WEST

(1) Seattle Mariners (63-99, 4th in 2004)

The wheels came off in Seattle last year, the result being an abysmal season that was far worse than anyone anticipated. This year, having rid themselves of aging and ineffective veterans, the Mariners check in with a pair of explosive free agents added to the lineup, and what could well be the best pitching staff in the division. Accordingly, 2004 may come to be seen as a gross aberation, as this team regains the form that made them one of the AL?s most feared franchises over the past decade. With Adrian Beltre taking over at 3B, they pick up one of baseball?s premier offensive stars (.334 48 121) and one of the main reasons the Dodgers woulnd up in the playoffs. 1B Richie Sexson missed most of ?04, but was good for 45 HR?s in 2003. They?ll get plenty of RBI opportunities batting behind superstar RF Ichiro Suzuki (.372, 36 steals with a record breaking 262 hits) and speedy CF Randy Winn (.286 14 81 with 21 steals). 2B Bret Boone (.251 24 83) and LF Raul Ibanez (.304 16 62) saw their production drop last year, but will be under far less pressure this time around and should respond well. Pokey Reese has no pop in his bat, but provides a nice defensive upgrade at SS. All the starting pitchers suffered through sub-par 2004 seasons, posting numbers well below their lifetime averages. Joel Pineiro has a lifetime ERA of 3.66, Jaime Moyer was 54-21 (3.40) in the three seasons prior to last year. Bobby Matritsch may emerge as a staff ace after posting solid numbers in 15 starts at the end of last year (6-3, 3.27). Tough veteran Eddie Guardado looks to overcome arm problems and handle most save situations and the rest of the pen (Hasegawa, Villone etc) should provide capable setup. Make no mistake: the Mariners are back and will be the team to beat in the west in ?05.

(2) Los Angeles Angels (92-70, 1st in 2004)

The Angels won the AL West more or less by default last year, the rest of the division?s ineptitude making their 92 wins look impressive by comparison. They?ve added nice pieces with the acquisitions of CF Steve Finley (.270 36 94) and SS Orlando Cabrera (.262 10 61), and any outfield that boasts MVP RF Vladimir Guerrero (.337 39 136) and LF Garret Anderson (.301 14 75 in an injury plagued 112 games) is a force to be reckoned with. But those pickups are offset by the loss of Troy Glaus and the decline of such mainstays as 1B Darin Erstad (.295 7 69) and veteran DH Tim Salmon (.253 2 23 in 60 games). And while the bullpen anchored by Francisco Rodriguez still looks sharp, the loss of longtime closer Troy Percival is significant. The big problem for this team is in fact the starting rotation. Kelvim Escobar was the best of the bunch (3.93 ERA) but their supposed number one starter Bartolo Colon had an ugly 5.01 ERA in 2004, and the rest of the crew (Jarrod Washburn 4.64, John Lackey 4.67) wasn??t much better. Mike Scoscia is tops as a manager in our book, but the drubbing they took at the hands of Boston exposed weaknesses that other teams will exploit. A stronger showing by their division rivals will make difficult a return to the playoffs.

(3) Texas Rangers (89-73, 2nd in 2004)

We love what Buck Showalter has done since taking responsibility for this perennial cellar dweller, and we?re impressed by the emergence of Ryan Drese (14-10, 4.20) on the mound. But any team that relies this much on an aging Kenny Rogers (18-9, 4.76) and the oft-injured Chan Ho Park can?t be considered a serious contender. The emergence of Chris Young (3-2, 4.71) and Ricardo Rodriguez (3-1, 2.03 in 5 starts) would certainly be welcome, and they have a bona fide closer in Francisco Cordero (2.13 ERA with 49 saves) but this staff has a long way to go. Offensively they?ve got one of the league?s more imposing infields with 1B Mark Texiera (.281 38 112), 2B Alfonso Soriano (.280 28 91), SS Michael Young (.313 22 99) and 3B Hank Blalock (.276 32 110). but the outfield is mediocre at best. RF Richard Hidalgo?s production was way down (.239 25 82), David Dellucci isn?t well suited to play every day (.242 17 61) while Gary Mathews Jr (.275 11 36) and Laynce Nix (.248 14 46) don?t have a great deal to offer. They caught the league off guard last year en route to 89 victories, it won?t be so easy this time around.

(4) Oakland Athletics (91-71, 2nd in 2004)

It dangerous to pick against a team put together by the irrepressible Billy Beane, who has consistently assembled winning squads on the stingiest of budgets. But after losing Tim Hudson to the Braves and Mark Mulder to the Cardinals, the one constant area of excellence on this team has been thoroughly decimaed. What is left is a Barry Zito who in no way ressembles the pitcher who achieved Cy Young honors three years ago, and Rich Harden with considerable potential (11-7, 3.99). But after that it?s anybody?s guess. Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and Dan Meyer will need to get good in a hurry if this team is to stand any chance of being run out of contention early. Eric 3B Chavez was not in top form last year (.276 29 77 in 125 games) and the other key every day players like SS Bobby Crosby (.239 22 64), Eric Bynes (.283 20 73) and DH Erubiel Durazo (.321 22 88) are adequate at best. You can only pinch pennies so long before the wheels come off. That?s sadly the case for Bay area fans in 2005.

 

[RAYMOND]

AL CENTRAL

(1) Minnesota Twins (92-70, 1st in 2004)

It wasn?t long ago that the Twins were the focus of contraction rumors, as the team struggled with a meager payroll and shrinking fan base. Since then, they have taken command in the AL Central, winning the division crown in each of the past three seasons. Their pitching was tops in the league last year, thanks in large measure to CY Young ace Johnan Santana (20-6, 2.61). Now, with Joe Mays returning to the rotation after missing alll of 2004, along with dependable veteran Brad Radke (11-8, 3.48), the Twins find their grip on first place tighter than ever. The emergence of Joe Nathan (1.62 ERA with 48 saves) as one of the league?s pre-eminent closers solidifies a bullpen that includes a pair of first rate set-up men in Juan Rincon (11-6, 2.63) and J.C. Romero (7-4, 3.51). Simply put, no one in the Central division can seriously compete. The lineup will have to get by without Christian Guzman and Corey Koskie, but they boast one of baseball?s most outstanding outfields. Torii Hunter?s numbers were down in 2004 (.271 23 81) but his sparkling defense was good enough for a Golden Glove. Jacque Jones (.254 24 80) and Shannon Stewart (.304 11 47 in 92 games) are in their prime with plenty of speed to burn. The infield will have some new faces. 1B Justin Morneau (.271 19 58 in 74 games) is only 23 year old and looks like the real deal . If 3B Mike Cuddyer (.263 12 45), 2B Luis Rivas (.256 10 34) and ex-Red SS Juan Castro continue to live to to their potenial, it adds another dimension to this formidable squad. There is no question about sophomore backstop Joe Mauer?s bat, but there is some uncertainty about whether his surgically repaired knee can handle the stress of daily catching duties. But the way things are stacking up, Minnesota looks like a runaway in the regular season, and a potentially lethal threat in October.

(2) Cleveland Indians (80-82, 3rd in 2004)

If anyone stands a chance of competing with Minnesota in the Central division, it has to be the Indians. who have progressed nicely with Eric Wedge at the helm. They improved dramatically in 2004, picking up 12 extra victories and falling just shy of .500. They?ve added some proven veterans to a maturing young squad, and should have no trouble adding 5-7 wins to their season total, more if everything falls into place. The pitching was 5th best in the league, led by sensational lefty C.C,, Sabathia (11-10, 4.12) and Jake Westbrook, who established himself as the #2 man with a 14-9, 3.38 mark. Kevin Millwood joins the teams after a sub-par season with ther Phillies (9-6, 4.85 in 25 starts). If they can get some quality starts out of Scott Elarton, Cliff Lee & Jason Davis, they will boast one of the league?s better rotations. Bob Wickman, who picked up 13 saves in 30 games after missing all of 2003, is joined in the bullpen by lefty Arthur Rhodes as setup man. Switch hitting C Victor Martinez (.283 23 108) is a rising star behind the plate. Juan Gonzalez joins the club looking to rebound from an injury plagued 2004. as does 3B Aaron Boone. The lineup is loaded with blossoming young talent, most notably CF Coco Crisp (.297 15 71), 1B Ben Broussard (.275 17 82 in 418 AB?s) and 2B Ronnie Belliard (.282 12 70). The loss of Omar Vizquel at SS will hurt defensively, so alot depends on the speedy development of Jhonny Peralta. In the end they?ll come up short, but this is a team to be reckoned with in 2006.

(3) Chicago White Sox (83-79, 2nd in 2004)

The White Sox quietly put together a winning season in 2004, and though they?ve made some dramatic changes, they appear poised to equal last year?s win total. The loss of Maglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee represents a big downgrade in power and average in the heart of the lineup but the newcomers Scott Podsednik (70 stolen bases to lead the NL last year) and Jermaine Dye (.265 23 80) should allow the team to play more smallball--something they will have to do. The key will be how well the pitching holds up. There?s an abundance of talent, and if it all comes together, this could be an awesome staff. Mark Buehrle (16-10, 3.89) is one of our favorite lefties and is still only 26 years old. Freddy Garcia (13-11, 3.81) was a smart mid-season pick-up, as was the inconsistent but potentally lethal Jose Contreras (13-9, 5.39). ?El Duque? Hernandez comes over from the Yankees following an 8-2 (3.30) comeback last summer but it remains to be seen if his shoulder will hold up through an entire season. Closer Shingo Takatsu had 13 years in Japan under hs belt prior to last season (6-4, 2.31 with 19 saves). The pitching will need to carry the club, because the lineup is unimposing, especially if the injured Frank Thomas (.271 18 49 in 74 games) is out for very long. Paul Konerko (.277 41 117) will bear much of the load in the Big Hurt?s absence and must prove he can be consistent. We think the club will wind up where it was last season, but with so many variables they could surprise us, perhaps for the better, perhaps worse.

(4) Detroit Tigers (72-90, 4th in 2004)

The Tigers picked up 29 more wins in ?04 than in their disastrous 2003 campaign and have emerged as a fashionable pick in the AL Central. It sounds way too premature. Detroit has potential in the starting rotation and with the signing of Troy Percival (2.90 with 43 saves), but right now their rotation consists of hurlers who would be no better than #4 or #5 men on other teams. That will keep them well shy of .500 in the standings. 22-year-old Jeremy Bonderman is a future star, and his 2004 numbers (11-13, 4.89) should improve after a strong finish, but he is still bound for some more growing pains. Mike Maroth (11-13, 4.31), Nate Robertson (12-10, 4.90) and Jason Johnson (8-15, 5.13) aren?t going to scare anyone. Any lineup that includes C Ivan Rodriguez (.334 19 86) will put runs on the board, and Carlos Guillen (.318 20 97) looks like baseball?s next great shortstop. But the rest of the offense consists of journeyman like LF Rondell White (.270 19 67) 1B Carlos Pena (.241 27 82), RF Bobby Higginson (24 12 64) and Dmitri Young (.272 18 60). If the pitching gets better in a hurry they may prove us wrong, but don?t count on much of an upgrade over the 2004 edition.

(5) Kansas City Royals (58-104, 5th in 2004)

We tought the Royals were in solid shape going into last year and we certainly weren?t alone. After going 83-79 in 2003 following a 100 loss 2002 campaign, all signs pointed to a breakout year in KC. How wrong we were. The Royals suffered a total meltdown under Tony Pena, with a league worst 5.15 team ERA and a next to last team BA of .259. By mid-season Carlos Beltran was gone, Juan Gonzalez was disabled, the starting rotation was in shambles, and a sorry collection of mediocrities listlessly sleepwalked through the second half. The only good news going into 2005 is the return of Jose Lima, who sizzled in LA (13-5, 4.07) and was a big part of their first division victory in over a decade. Zack Greinke just turned 21 and shows real promise (8-11, 3.97 in 24 starts) as did Runelvys Hernandez in his first two seasons before missing all of last year. 1B Mike Sweeney is the lone offensive standout (.287 22 79) but has been hampered by a bad back. And it?s all downhill after that. This team will be hard pressed to avoid their 3rd 100 loss debacle in the past 4 years.

 

[RAYMOND]

AL EAST

(1) New York Yankees (101-61, 1st in 2004)

Last year we went against the Yankees on these pages for the first time in over a decade, believing that the loss of Clemens, Pettitte & Wells, combined with Boston?s addition of Curt Schilling would finally propel the Red Sox past New York in the standings. We were wrong, the Yankees once again won the division, but we were vindicated in the post-season when the Sox overcame their arch rivals en route to the World Series championship that had so long eluded them. This year however, the tables have turned. The acquisitions of Randy Johnson (16-14, 2.60 ERA), Carl Pavano (18-8, 3.00) and Jaret Wright (15-8, 3.28) vastly improve the Yankee rotation, while the loss of Pedro Martinez & Derek Lowe significantly downgrades that of Boston. Consequently, we look for the Yankees to coast to a division title. In addition to their starters, this team has the top bullpen in baseball, anchored once again by closer Mariano Rivera (1.94 with 53 saves). Mike Stanton (3.16 with the Mets in ?04) gives them the quality lefthander out of the pen that was sorely lacking last year, while Tom Gordon (2.21), Paul Quantrill & Felix Rodriguez will chew up plenty of innings in middle relief. The lineup is awesome as always: Tony Womack (.307 with 26 stolen bases) joins SS Derek Jeter (.292 23 78), 3B Alex Rodriquez (.286 36 105) in an explosive infield. 1B Jason Giambi looks sharp in spring training, but Tino Martinez (.262 26 78 with Tampa Bay) is standing by just in case. Gary Sheffield (.290 36 121), Hideki Matsui (.298 31 108) and Bernie Williams (.262 22 70) are a potent outfield, and C Jorge Posada (.272 21 81) remains one of the league?s most dependable backstops. Despite their deficiencies in 2004, they still finished three games up in the AL East. This year, we pick them to win it by at least 10.

(2) Boston Red Sox (98-64, won World Series in 2004)

The three teams that captured the World Series title prior to last year (Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins) all faltered in the standings the following season, failing to even make it back to the playoffs. Perhaps a letdown was to be expected, and if that?s the case, we can expect the mother of all letdowns in Beantown this year. Slap happy Sox fans, many of whom have been in a drunken stupor since last October, won?t feel the intensity that drove them in the past, and neither will the players, who were never the most disiplined bunch to begin with. Losing an icon like Pedro Martinez is never good for morale, and even though Derek Lowe suffered through a disappointing campaign, he showed his old form in some critical post-season performances. Curt Schilling is an ace (21-6, 3.26), but has been hobbled since last September and won?t be ready when the season begins. Wade Miller (7-7, 3.35 with Houston) is capable, but will also start the season on the DL. A lot depens on Matt Clement (9-13, 3.68 with the Cubs) and David Wells (12-8, 3.73 with San Diego), but Clement is adequate at best, and Fenway Park will be far less forgiving to a lefty like Wells than were Yankee Stadium and Petco Park. The offense is sound and will keep them from falling on their faces, especially if DH David Ortiz (.301 41 139) and LF Manny Ramirez (.308 43 130) can duplicate last year?s awesome output. Edgar Rentaria (.287 10 72 with St. Louis) is an ideal replacement for Orlando Cabrera, and the rest of the everyday lineup (Damon, Mueller, Millar, Varitek, Nixon) is solid. The bullpen, led by post-season hero Keith Foulke (2.17, 32 saves), will pick up the slack when the starters falter. This team still has plenty of weapons, but we think they?ll fall well short of the 98 wins they posted in ?04, leaving the door open for another wild-card contender to knock them out of the post-season.

(3) Baltimore Orioles (78-84, 3rd in 2004)

The AL East has seen a significant disparity between the front running Yankees & Red Sox and the rest of the division. We certainly won?t be surprised if the same pattern repeats itself this year, but if any other team can climb into contention, we think it has to be the Orioles. They?ve got more than enough offense to keep them competitive and the pitching, though far from strong, does boast some promise. Rodrigio Lopez (14-9, 3.59) checks in as the opening day pitcher after bouncing back and forth from the bullpen the past two seasons. Sidney Ponson had a miserable year in ?04 (11-15, 5.30) but he?s still only 28 and loaded with talent, while lefty Eric Bedard (6-10, 4.59 in 26 starts) has looked very sharp in spring training. If those two perform consistently, the O?s will have the makings of a decent rotation. An explosive offense is going to get even better with the addition of Sammy Sosa, who belted 35 HR?s in an off year. SS Miguel Tejada broke the 150 RBI mark, while batting .311 with 34 HRs. 3B Melvin Mora (.340 27 104) and 1B Rafael Palmiero (.258 23 88) and 2B Brian Roberts (.273 4 53) round out an infield second only to the Yankees in explosiveness. The rest of the outfield is less imposing (Raines, Bigbie, Gibbons), but Baltimore boasts one of the games premier offense catchers in Javy Lopez (.316 23 86). The bullpen situation was bleak last year, with the erratic Jorge Julio posting only 22 saves to go with an inflated (4.57) ERA. B.J. Ryan (2.28, 122 K?s in 87 IP) is a big, flamethrowing lefty who will take over



as closer and, if last year?s numbers are any indication, Ryan is poised for a great year. The addition of LHP Steve Kline and RHP Steve Reed shores up the rest of the ?pen and gives the O?s one of the best lefty reliever duos around. If the rotation can deliver qualtiy starts with any kind of consistency, the hitters may be able to keep this team close behind Boston in the Wild Card race, at least for a while.

(4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays (70-91, 4th in 2004)

Getting this team to a .500 record is going to be tough until management breaks down and starts spending some money. But Lou Piniella got the most out of the available talent last year, breaking the 70 win mark and climbing out of last place in the division for the first time in franchise history. Much will depend this year on the continued emergence of starters Dewon Brazelton (6-8, 4.77) and Scott Kazmir (2-3, 5.67) who exhibited flashes of brilliance after coming over from the Mets in the Zambrano deal. Mark Hendrickson (10-13, 4.81) and Robb Bell (8-8, 4.46) round out the rotation and Danys Baez (3.57 with 30 saves) is a competent closer. The outfield corners should be flanked by stolen base champ Carl Crawford (.296 11 55) and lone power threat Aubrey Huff (.297 29 104) with the newly acquired Alex Sanchez (career .292 hitter) holding down center field until Rocco Baldelli (.280 16 74) returns from rehabbing a knee injury. The infield is unimposing, but if IB Josh Phelps (17 HRs 61 RBIs in 103 games with Toronto & Cleveland) can get into more games this year, his numbers should improve. C Toby Hall (.255 8 60) has been the focus of many Piniells tirades in the past, hopefully he?s progressed enough to escape the wrath of the fiery manager in 2005. This team will be long gone from contention by the All-Star break, but they should show continued progress, perhaps winning 75 games by year?s end.

 

[RAYMOND]

(4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays (70-91, 4th in 2004)

Getting this team to a .500 record is going to be tough until management breaks down and starts spending some money. But Lou Piniella got the most out of the available talent last year, breaking the 70 win mark and climbing out of last place in the division for the first time in franchise history. Much will depend this year on the continued emergence of starters Dewon Brazelton (6-8, 4.77) and Scott Kazmir (2-3, 5.67) who exhibited flashes of brilliance after coming over from the Mets in the Zambrano deal. Mark Hendrickson (10-13, 4.81) and Robb Bell (8-8, 4.46) round out the rotation and Danys Baez (3.57 with 30 saves) is a competent closer. The outfield corners should be flanked by stolen base champ Carl Crawford (.296 11 55) and lone power threat Aubrey Huff (.297 29 104) with the newly acquired Alex Sanchez (career .292 hitter) holding down center field until Rocco Baldelli (.280 16 74) returns from rehabbing a knee injury. The infield is unimposing, but if IB Josh Phelps (17 HRs 61 RBIs in 103 games with Toronto & Cleveland) can get into more games this year, his numbers should improve. C Toby Hall (.255 8 60) has been the focus of many Piniells tirades in the past, hopefully he?s progressed enough to escape the wrath of the fiery manager in 2005. This team will be long gone from contention by the All-Star break, but they should show continued progress, perhaps winning 75 games by year?s end.

(5) Toronto Blue Jays (67-94, 5th in 2004)

Now that baseball has pulled the plug on their beleagured Montreal operation, can the other Canadian team be far behind. Perhaps the absence of the Stanley Cup hockey will help boster attendance at Skydome, where the Blue Jays again failed to top 2 million. But considering what?s likely to be on the field, fans will be hard pressed to muster much enthusiasm. Their only offense star Carlos Delgado bailed out in the off season, accepting an offer from the Marlins, and 3B Corey Koskie (.251 25 71) is hardly an adequate replacement. Vernon Wells (.272 23 67) saw his numbers fall off precipitously in 2004 and the rest of the everyday lineup is mediocre at best. Eric Hinske (.246 15 69) takes over every day duty at 1B, with 2B Orlando Hudson (.270 12 58) and SS Russ Adams (.306 4 10 in 22 games) rounding out the infield. Much depends on the return to form of Roy Halladay (8-8, 4.20 in 22 starts) and strong showings by Ted Lilly (12-10, 4.065) and Miguel Batista (10-13, 4.80). Lefty Scott Schoeneweis may break into the starting rotation. Complicating matters will be the necessity of breaking in a new catcher. Surprises are always possible, but it?s going to be hard for the Blue Jays to make much noise in the AL East for some time to come, quite a letdown for a franchise that packed the house regularly and captured back to back World Series titles in the erarly 1990?s. It now seems so long ago.

 

[themadmax]

THANKS RAYMOND, I HOPE YOU WIN BIG THIS YEAR. GOOD LUCK.

 

[BillyS]

Ray you did some good a** research that we can all benefit from on this site, Thanks again bro!!

 

[chuckdman]

Best BBall info on the net and a great read.
Thanks Raymond!