BASEBALL
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 12
Houston at Arizona (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
There?s not much good news to report for either one of these franchises at the moment, both of whom are mired near or in the basement of their respective divisions. The Diamondbacks have been dreadful here at Chase Field (-$1145) so we might catch a decent price on the road team in some of these games. It appears the Houston lefthanders will not be available, but Roy Oswalt has shown some improvement since April. He?s our best hope in what otherwise shapes up as a lackluster match-up. BEST BET: Oswalt.
Minnesota at Chicago Cubs (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Cubs tend to be overpriced here at Wrigley Field, so their 16-10 record at home only translates into a modest +$85 profit. But they are in the black, and when you consider Minnesota?s appalling 7-18 road record (-$955) the host team looks quite appealing. Ted Lilly (+$220, 3.28 ERA in 11 starts) is likely to see action, and he?ll be hard to pass up considering that the Twins have yet to beat a lefthander outside of the Metrodome (averaging only 2.4 runs per game in those contests). Prices will be inflated as usual, but in this case betting the heavy favorite makes sense. BEST BET: Lilly.
Boston at Philadelphia (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We get the match-up many had hoped to see in last year?s World Series, as the suddenly very hot Phillies (8-2, +$660 last 10 days) host the Red Sox at Citizens Bank. There pitching has looked a bit better, and they?ll be in against a Boston team that has struggled on the road (15-16, -$330) and is coming off a three game set with the Yankees at Fenway. Jon Lester had a solid outing last weekend, but his ERA is still high (5.09 in 12 starts) and the Phillies are a scary 15-5 vs. lefthanders this year (+$955 with 5.8 runs per game). BEST BET: Phillies vs. Lester.
Detroit at Pittsburgh (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Tigers have been a money-maker in 2009 and they are doing their best work vs. lefthanders (11-5, +$640 with 5.6 runs per game) so they have a shot when Pittsburgh sends one of their southpaws to the mound. The Pirates aren?t as bad as we?ve seen in past seasons, but they?re unlikely to make it over .500 and into contention. And let?s not forget that despite all Detroit?s difficulties last season, they still managed a 13-5 mark vs. the NL (+$760). The Tigers also check in with the 2nd best team ERA in the American League (4.13). BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Cleveland (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Cardinals have fallen a couple games off the pace in the competitive NL Central, but they have an outstanding team ERA (3.88, 3rd best in the league) and look like a pretty good proposition here at Progressive Field this weekend. The Indians have a terrible pitching staff (5.23 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league) and they?ve already lost a fortune against righthanded pitching (18-28, -$1100 so far in 2009). Great news in St. Louis has been the return to top form of Chris Carpenter, who checks in with a spectacular 0.71 ERA in his six starts so far. We?ll be on board when he takes the mound against the last place Indians. BEST BET: Carpenter.
Florida at Toronto (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Blue Jays built up a fat lead in the AL East, but they?ve has a very rough stretch and are looking to regroup. Their pitching has been letting them down (5.19 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they are 0-3 in inter-league action (-$360). But Rogers Centre has been a positive venue for this Toronto team (21-10, +$865) and the Marlins are 14 games under .500 since opening the season at 11-1, They?re having a hard time putting together a dependable rotation, and the only pitcher who causes us concern is Josh Johnson (+$600, 2.63 ERA in 12 starts). As long as we sidestep him, the home team should turn a profit. BEST BET: Blue Jays unless opposed by Jo. Johnson.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mets got the best of their cross-town rival in 2008, but the Yankees have looked very sharp over the past month (averaging 6.7 runs per game in the past 10 days) and they catch the Mets in the midst of a particularly bad stretch (-$185 only 3.4 runs per game in the last 10 days, and a bloated 5.56 ERA among starters). We?ll pass on Friday night?s game, since the Yankees will have wrapped up a series at Fenway Park the night before. But the Mets are only 8-11 in day games (-$615) and the Saturday & Sunday contests are both slated for the afternoon. BEST BET: Yankees in day games.
Atlanta at Baltimore (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Braves have some decent pitchers (4.05 ERA) and it seems as though they should be winning more games than they have been. But their numbers vs. righthanders have been deplorable (only 15-20, -$850 with just 3.7 runs per game) and the Orioles have turned a profit here at Camden Yards (+$360). But we can?t trust a team with the worst ERA in MLB (Baltimore 5.34 so far) when it?s clear that the visitor will have the best of every pitching matchup. We?ll stay on the sidelines for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Tampa Bay (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
Things are pretty bleak in Washington these days (15-40, -$2325 so far in 2009) and they?re in for a bumpy trip to Tampa Bay, taking on a Rays team that seems to have the wind to its back (6-3, +$315 last 10 days with a 2.10 ERA among starters). They?ve been dominating righthanders here at Tropicana Field (13-6, +$395) and the Nationals check in with the fattest ERA in the NL (5.47). We will steer clear of the visiting lefthanders, since Tampa has struggled vs. southpaws, but in all other cases we?ll lay the price on the home favorite. BEST BET: Rays vs. righthanders.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
When you look at Milwaukee?s stats (.249 team BA, 4.14 ERA) it?s surprising that they are in first place with a 33-24 record (+$1000). They?ve been at their best here at Miller Park, and that will make it tough on the visiting Chisox, who continue to struggle offensively (only 4.1 runs per game so far). Mark Buehrle has had a strong first two months of 2009 (+$400, 2.91 ERA in 11 starts) and we?re not anxious to go against him. But considering how well the Brewers are playing, no one else on the visiting staff gives us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Brewers unless opposed by Buehrle.
L.A. Dodgers at Texas (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The two biggest money-makers in MLB this year square off in this inter-league matchup. Texas has had a remarkable run, thanks in large measure to Kevin Millwood?s resurgence (2.97 ERA in 12 starts) and the strong performance of Scott Feldman (+$685, 2.63 ERA in 8 starts). But Millwood is not slated to take the mound this weekend, and the Rangers could be vulnerable against the sizzling hot Dodgers (+$1685 in 2009). LA leads the league in both hitting (.280 team BA) and pitching (3.68) and they are clearly the team to beat in the National League this year. We can?t pass up a team of this quality at what promises to be some very short road prices. BEST BET: Dodgers unless opposed by Feldman.
Cincinnati at Kansas City (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We had high hopes for the Royals this year, especially after they jumped to an early April lead in the competitive AL Central. But they?ve hit the skids in a big way, and are currently floundering near the division basement (1-8, -$780 last 10 days with a 5.99 ERA among starters, while averaging just 2.4 runs per game). The Reds have lost some ground in recent days themselves (3-7, -$365 last 10), but their pitching is holding up well (3.94 team ERA, 5th best in the NL) and they?ve turned a nice profit on the road (+$520). With staff ace Zack Greinke (1.55 ERA in 12 starts) not due to take a start in this series, the visitor should have no trouble taking at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Reds in all games.
Seattle at Colorado (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mariners seemed to be fading in May, but they?ve climbed back to just under .500, so they could still be a factor in the AL West this year. They have the lowest team ERA in the league (3.74 ERA) and we like their chances here at Coors Field, where the last place Rockies are only 9-14 this year (-$905). Eric Bedard is having his best season ever (2.47 ERA in 11 starts) and looks like a solid value. Jarrod Washburn has also regained his form (3.07 in 11 starts), and both Seattle southpaws are expected to see action this weekend. BEST BET: Bedard/Washburn.
San Diego at L.A. Angels (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
It seems as though the Angels should be playing better, now that their pitching staff is healthy. We do expect them to make a run in the AL West, and the Padres would appear to be just what they need to fatten up their win total. San Diego is struggling once again (only 2-7, -$520 last 10 days with a 5.75 ERA among starters), and they check in with a dismal 8-19 record in road games (-$810). But LA isn?t scoring enough runs to justify the stiff prices we?re likely to see in Anaheim this weekend. We prefer to steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at San Francisco (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We like what we?re seeing in Oakland lately (7-4, +$450 last 10 days) as their young pitching staff continues to mature. But the Giants are 18-9 here at ATT Park (+$870) and their team pitching (3.75 ERA) is second only to the Dodgers in the National League. The Athletics are only 6-12 on the road vs. righthanders (-$430) and they?ll be up against the deadly duo of Matt Cain (2.27 ERA in 11 starts) and Tim Lincecum (2.96 ERA in 12 starts). Prices will be high, but this is a San Francisco team that looks like a serious wildcard contender. BEST BET: Cain/Lincecum
BEGINNING MONDAY JUNE 15
Milwaukee at Cleveland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Brewers have turned a nice profit on the road this year (+$450) and they have some quality hurlers who should stop a Cleveland offense that is only 18-28 (-$1100) against righthanders this season. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Indians.
L.A. Angels at San Francisco (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
We suspect that Tim Lincecum will make an appearance in the last game of this series and that?s bad news for an Angels team that has lost money on the road vs. righthanders (-$250). They might fare much better against the SF southpaws (LA +$455 on the road against lefties), but we?re reluctant to make that call with the Giants playing so well at ATT Park. PREFERRED: Lincecum.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JUNE 16
Atlanta at Cincinnati (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Braves have had a terrible time coping with righthanders this year, with an outstandingly bad record against them in night games (only 9-15, -$980). The Reds are a solid 8-4 against righthanders in night games here at Great American Ballpark (+$405) so this sets up nicely for the home team, with a pair of evening contests scheduled for Tuesday & Wednesday. PREFERRED: Reds when righty meets righty in night games
Washington at N.Y. Yankees (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
This looks like a bleak scenario for Washington; a team with a 6-20 road record (-$1170) taking on the red-hot Yankees in the Bronx. But prices will be in excess of 2 to 1 throughout, perhaps as high as 3 to 1 in some cases, so a single win by the Nationals will give the Yankees a cash loss. We?ll take a pass for now. PREFERRED: None.
N.Y. Mets at Baltimore (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets have been stumbling in recent days (-$185 with 3.4 runs per game and a 5.56 ERA among starters last 10) and they could have a difficult time coping with a Baltimore team that checks in with a 9-4 record vs. righthanders in night games at Camden Yards (+$560 with 6.2 runs per game). All three of these games are evening starts. PREFERRED: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Philadelphia (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Phillies are hot right now (8-2, +$660 last 10 days with a 2.67 ERA among starters, averaging 5.3 runs per game in those contests) and the Blue Jays have not performed well outside of Rogers Centre (-$605). The home team should take at least 2 out of 3 in this series. PREFERRED: Phillies in all games.
Florida at Boston (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Red Sox are tough at Fenway Park, but the Marlins could steal a win against Jon Lester. He?s been mediocre for the most part in 2009 (5.09 ERA in 12 starts) and Florida checks in with a 13-7 record against lefthanders (+$600 with 5.2 runs per game). We could catch a nice price on the visiting underdog in this one. PREFERRED: Marlins vs. Lester.
Houston at Texas (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Astros have made up some ground in recent days (7-3, +$325 last 10) and they have a history of coming on strong in the 2nd half. But it?s hard to find a good spot to go against the Rangers, a team that is 18-9 (+$770) at Arlington this year. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Both teams are having a tough time scoring runs this year (White Sox .249 team BA, 3rd worst in the AL . . . Cubs .248, 4th worst in the NL), but they are both competitive within their respective divisions. We?ll have to examine specific match-ups closely before making a call in this one. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at Kansas City (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Diamondbacks have turned a profit on the road vs. righthanders (+$530) and they?re catching a Royals team that is reeling. Avoid Zach Greinke (1.55 ERA) who is expected to be on the hill at Kaufman Stadium, but the rest of the KC staff is fair game. PREFERRED: Diamondbacks vs. all righthanders except Greinke.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Twins have had their ups and downs, but they are 18-7 in night games at the Metrodome (+$955 with 6.1 runs per game) and should have no trouble defeating a Pittsburgh team that is 11-17 on the road this year (-$335). PREFERRED: Twins in night games.
Detroit at St. Louis (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Tigers are an excellent value vs. lefthanders, but the St. Louis rotation is all-righty, and that spells trouble for Detroit (-$360 in that situation). We?ll try our luck with a trio of Cardinal hurlers, at least two of whom are likely see action in this series. PREFERRED: Wainwright/Lohse/Carpenter.
Tampa Bay at Colorado (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Rays are rounding into form, and should be a solid value at Coors Field, where the Rockies have lost a bundle (-$1005). But only jump in if the price is fair. PREFERRED: Rays at -115 or less.
Seattle at San Diego (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Righty vs. righty match-ups should favor the home team. San Diego has turned a profit vs. righties at Petco Park (+$435) while the Mariners have lost money vs. righties in all settings (-$400 with only 3.7 runs per game). PREFERRED: Padres when righty meets righty.
Oakland at L.A. Dodgers (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Dodgers are only 6-12 vs. the AL over the past two years (-$695) and the A?s are 4-2 (+$340) in night games vs. lefties on the road. PREFERRED: Athletics vs. lefthanders in night games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 12
Houston at Arizona (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
There?s not much good news to report for either one of these franchises at the moment, both of whom are mired near or in the basement of their respective divisions. The Diamondbacks have been dreadful here at Chase Field (-$1145) so we might catch a decent price on the road team in some of these games. It appears the Houston lefthanders will not be available, but Roy Oswalt has shown some improvement since April. He?s our best hope in what otherwise shapes up as a lackluster match-up. BEST BET: Oswalt.
Minnesota at Chicago Cubs (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Cubs tend to be overpriced here at Wrigley Field, so their 16-10 record at home only translates into a modest +$85 profit. But they are in the black, and when you consider Minnesota?s appalling 7-18 road record (-$955) the host team looks quite appealing. Ted Lilly (+$220, 3.28 ERA in 11 starts) is likely to see action, and he?ll be hard to pass up considering that the Twins have yet to beat a lefthander outside of the Metrodome (averaging only 2.4 runs per game in those contests). Prices will be inflated as usual, but in this case betting the heavy favorite makes sense. BEST BET: Lilly.
Boston at Philadelphia (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We get the match-up many had hoped to see in last year?s World Series, as the suddenly very hot Phillies (8-2, +$660 last 10 days) host the Red Sox at Citizens Bank. There pitching has looked a bit better, and they?ll be in against a Boston team that has struggled on the road (15-16, -$330) and is coming off a three game set with the Yankees at Fenway. Jon Lester had a solid outing last weekend, but his ERA is still high (5.09 in 12 starts) and the Phillies are a scary 15-5 vs. lefthanders this year (+$955 with 5.8 runs per game). BEST BET: Phillies vs. Lester.
Detroit at Pittsburgh (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Tigers have been a money-maker in 2009 and they are doing their best work vs. lefthanders (11-5, +$640 with 5.6 runs per game) so they have a shot when Pittsburgh sends one of their southpaws to the mound. The Pirates aren?t as bad as we?ve seen in past seasons, but they?re unlikely to make it over .500 and into contention. And let?s not forget that despite all Detroit?s difficulties last season, they still managed a 13-5 mark vs. the NL (+$760). The Tigers also check in with the 2nd best team ERA in the American League (4.13). BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Cleveland (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Cardinals have fallen a couple games off the pace in the competitive NL Central, but they have an outstanding team ERA (3.88, 3rd best in the league) and look like a pretty good proposition here at Progressive Field this weekend. The Indians have a terrible pitching staff (5.23 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league) and they?ve already lost a fortune against righthanded pitching (18-28, -$1100 so far in 2009). Great news in St. Louis has been the return to top form of Chris Carpenter, who checks in with a spectacular 0.71 ERA in his six starts so far. We?ll be on board when he takes the mound against the last place Indians. BEST BET: Carpenter.
Florida at Toronto (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Blue Jays built up a fat lead in the AL East, but they?ve has a very rough stretch and are looking to regroup. Their pitching has been letting them down (5.19 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they are 0-3 in inter-league action (-$360). But Rogers Centre has been a positive venue for this Toronto team (21-10, +$865) and the Marlins are 14 games under .500 since opening the season at 11-1, They?re having a hard time putting together a dependable rotation, and the only pitcher who causes us concern is Josh Johnson (+$600, 2.63 ERA in 12 starts). As long as we sidestep him, the home team should turn a profit. BEST BET: Blue Jays unless opposed by Jo. Johnson.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mets got the best of their cross-town rival in 2008, but the Yankees have looked very sharp over the past month (averaging 6.7 runs per game in the past 10 days) and they catch the Mets in the midst of a particularly bad stretch (-$185 only 3.4 runs per game in the last 10 days, and a bloated 5.56 ERA among starters). We?ll pass on Friday night?s game, since the Yankees will have wrapped up a series at Fenway Park the night before. But the Mets are only 8-11 in day games (-$615) and the Saturday & Sunday contests are both slated for the afternoon. BEST BET: Yankees in day games.
Atlanta at Baltimore (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Braves have some decent pitchers (4.05 ERA) and it seems as though they should be winning more games than they have been. But their numbers vs. righthanders have been deplorable (only 15-20, -$850 with just 3.7 runs per game) and the Orioles have turned a profit here at Camden Yards (+$360). But we can?t trust a team with the worst ERA in MLB (Baltimore 5.34 so far) when it?s clear that the visitor will have the best of every pitching matchup. We?ll stay on the sidelines for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Tampa Bay (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
Things are pretty bleak in Washington these days (15-40, -$2325 so far in 2009) and they?re in for a bumpy trip to Tampa Bay, taking on a Rays team that seems to have the wind to its back (6-3, +$315 last 10 days with a 2.10 ERA among starters). They?ve been dominating righthanders here at Tropicana Field (13-6, +$395) and the Nationals check in with the fattest ERA in the NL (5.47). We will steer clear of the visiting lefthanders, since Tampa has struggled vs. southpaws, but in all other cases we?ll lay the price on the home favorite. BEST BET: Rays vs. righthanders.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
When you look at Milwaukee?s stats (.249 team BA, 4.14 ERA) it?s surprising that they are in first place with a 33-24 record (+$1000). They?ve been at their best here at Miller Park, and that will make it tough on the visiting Chisox, who continue to struggle offensively (only 4.1 runs per game so far). Mark Buehrle has had a strong first two months of 2009 (+$400, 2.91 ERA in 11 starts) and we?re not anxious to go against him. But considering how well the Brewers are playing, no one else on the visiting staff gives us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Brewers unless opposed by Buehrle.
L.A. Dodgers at Texas (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The two biggest money-makers in MLB this year square off in this inter-league matchup. Texas has had a remarkable run, thanks in large measure to Kevin Millwood?s resurgence (2.97 ERA in 12 starts) and the strong performance of Scott Feldman (+$685, 2.63 ERA in 8 starts). But Millwood is not slated to take the mound this weekend, and the Rangers could be vulnerable against the sizzling hot Dodgers (+$1685 in 2009). LA leads the league in both hitting (.280 team BA) and pitching (3.68) and they are clearly the team to beat in the National League this year. We can?t pass up a team of this quality at what promises to be some very short road prices. BEST BET: Dodgers unless opposed by Feldman.
Cincinnati at Kansas City (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We had high hopes for the Royals this year, especially after they jumped to an early April lead in the competitive AL Central. But they?ve hit the skids in a big way, and are currently floundering near the division basement (1-8, -$780 last 10 days with a 5.99 ERA among starters, while averaging just 2.4 runs per game). The Reds have lost some ground in recent days themselves (3-7, -$365 last 10), but their pitching is holding up well (3.94 team ERA, 5th best in the NL) and they?ve turned a nice profit on the road (+$520). With staff ace Zack Greinke (1.55 ERA in 12 starts) not due to take a start in this series, the visitor should have no trouble taking at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Reds in all games.
Seattle at Colorado (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
The Mariners seemed to be fading in May, but they?ve climbed back to just under .500, so they could still be a factor in the AL West this year. They have the lowest team ERA in the league (3.74 ERA) and we like their chances here at Coors Field, where the last place Rockies are only 9-14 this year (-$905). Eric Bedard is having his best season ever (2.47 ERA in 11 starts) and looks like a solid value. Jarrod Washburn has also regained his form (3.07 in 11 starts), and both Seattle southpaws are expected to see action this weekend. BEST BET: Bedard/Washburn.
San Diego at L.A. Angels (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
It seems as though the Angels should be playing better, now that their pitching staff is healthy. We do expect them to make a run in the AL West, and the Padres would appear to be just what they need to fatten up their win total. San Diego is struggling once again (only 2-7, -$520 last 10 days with a 5.75 ERA among starters), and they check in with a dismal 8-19 record in road games (-$810). But LA isn?t scoring enough runs to justify the stiff prices we?re likely to see in Anaheim this weekend. We prefer to steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at San Francisco (3) 12th, 13th, 14th
We like what we?re seeing in Oakland lately (7-4, +$450 last 10 days) as their young pitching staff continues to mature. But the Giants are 18-9 here at ATT Park (+$870) and their team pitching (3.75 ERA) is second only to the Dodgers in the National League. The Athletics are only 6-12 on the road vs. righthanders (-$430) and they?ll be up against the deadly duo of Matt Cain (2.27 ERA in 11 starts) and Tim Lincecum (2.96 ERA in 12 starts). Prices will be high, but this is a San Francisco team that looks like a serious wildcard contender. BEST BET: Cain/Lincecum
BEGINNING MONDAY JUNE 15
Milwaukee at Cleveland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Brewers have turned a nice profit on the road this year (+$450) and they have some quality hurlers who should stop a Cleveland offense that is only 18-28 (-$1100) against righthanders this season. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Indians.
L.A. Angels at San Francisco (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
We suspect that Tim Lincecum will make an appearance in the last game of this series and that?s bad news for an Angels team that has lost money on the road vs. righthanders (-$250). They might fare much better against the SF southpaws (LA +$455 on the road against lefties), but we?re reluctant to make that call with the Giants playing so well at ATT Park. PREFERRED: Lincecum.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JUNE 16
Atlanta at Cincinnati (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Braves have had a terrible time coping with righthanders this year, with an outstandingly bad record against them in night games (only 9-15, -$980). The Reds are a solid 8-4 against righthanders in night games here at Great American Ballpark (+$405) so this sets up nicely for the home team, with a pair of evening contests scheduled for Tuesday & Wednesday. PREFERRED: Reds when righty meets righty in night games
Washington at N.Y. Yankees (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
This looks like a bleak scenario for Washington; a team with a 6-20 road record (-$1170) taking on the red-hot Yankees in the Bronx. But prices will be in excess of 2 to 1 throughout, perhaps as high as 3 to 1 in some cases, so a single win by the Nationals will give the Yankees a cash loss. We?ll take a pass for now. PREFERRED: None.
N.Y. Mets at Baltimore (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets have been stumbling in recent days (-$185 with 3.4 runs per game and a 5.56 ERA among starters last 10) and they could have a difficult time coping with a Baltimore team that checks in with a 9-4 record vs. righthanders in night games at Camden Yards (+$560 with 6.2 runs per game). All three of these games are evening starts. PREFERRED: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Philadelphia (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Phillies are hot right now (8-2, +$660 last 10 days with a 2.67 ERA among starters, averaging 5.3 runs per game in those contests) and the Blue Jays have not performed well outside of Rogers Centre (-$605). The home team should take at least 2 out of 3 in this series. PREFERRED: Phillies in all games.
Florida at Boston (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Red Sox are tough at Fenway Park, but the Marlins could steal a win against Jon Lester. He?s been mediocre for the most part in 2009 (5.09 ERA in 12 starts) and Florida checks in with a 13-7 record against lefthanders (+$600 with 5.2 runs per game). We could catch a nice price on the visiting underdog in this one. PREFERRED: Marlins vs. Lester.
Houston at Texas (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Astros have made up some ground in recent days (7-3, +$325 last 10) and they have a history of coming on strong in the 2nd half. But it?s hard to find a good spot to go against the Rangers, a team that is 18-9 (+$770) at Arlington this year. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Both teams are having a tough time scoring runs this year (White Sox .249 team BA, 3rd worst in the AL . . . Cubs .248, 4th worst in the NL), but they are both competitive within their respective divisions. We?ll have to examine specific match-ups closely before making a call in this one. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at Kansas City (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Diamondbacks have turned a profit on the road vs. righthanders (+$530) and they?re catching a Royals team that is reeling. Avoid Zach Greinke (1.55 ERA) who is expected to be on the hill at Kaufman Stadium, but the rest of the KC staff is fair game. PREFERRED: Diamondbacks vs. all righthanders except Greinke.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Twins have had their ups and downs, but they are 18-7 in night games at the Metrodome (+$955 with 6.1 runs per game) and should have no trouble defeating a Pittsburgh team that is 11-17 on the road this year (-$335). PREFERRED: Twins in night games.
Detroit at St. Louis (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Tigers are an excellent value vs. lefthanders, but the St. Louis rotation is all-righty, and that spells trouble for Detroit (-$360 in that situation). We?ll try our luck with a trio of Cardinal hurlers, at least two of whom are likely see action in this series. PREFERRED: Wainwright/Lohse/Carpenter.
Tampa Bay at Colorado (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Rays are rounding into form, and should be a solid value at Coors Field, where the Rockies have lost a bundle (-$1005). But only jump in if the price is fair. PREFERRED: Rays at -115 or less.
Seattle at San Diego (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Righty vs. righty match-ups should favor the home team. San Diego has turned a profit vs. righties at Petco Park (+$435) while the Mariners have lost money vs. righties in all settings (-$400 with only 3.7 runs per game). PREFERRED: Padres when righty meets righty.
Oakland at L.A. Dodgers (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Dodgers are only 6-12 vs. the AL over the past two years (-$695) and the A?s are 4-2 (+$340) in night games vs. lefties on the road. PREFERRED: Athletics vs. lefthanders in night games.
