BEGINNING MONDAY, MAY 8
Colorado at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Pirates remain atop the NL Central standings despite losing their last seven in a row (+$1025 overall). Those defeats came against two very formidable AL East clubs. Now they face a Colorado team with a 4.96 team ERA (3rd worst in the league) and an offense that averages just 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers (8-15, -$335). Mitch Keller has been effective in seven appearances so far (+$475, 3.32 ERA) and looks like a solid value in the series opener, as the Bucs look to snap their recent slide. BEST BET: M. Keller.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Stunning collapse by the Cardinals so far in 2023, considering they won 93 games last year. They are the biggest money-burners in MLB at the moment (11-24, -$2065). Their starting rotation has a 5.99 ERA in the past 10 days. In addition, they are only 1-13 in night games vs. right-handers (-$1510). They’ll have to contend with Marcus Stroman (2.18 ERA in 7 starts) and Jameson Taillon (3.38 last two). The Cubs have turned a modest profit playing at Wrigley Field (+$250). BEST BET: Stroman/Taillon.
L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Dodgers have won 8 of their last 10 (+$540) and jumped into 1st place in the NL West. They’ve gone 17-8 vs. right-handers (+$490), averaging 6.1 runs per game in those contests. The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 9 (-$460), averaging just 3.3 runs per game over that period. LA has not done well against left-handers in 2023, so steer clear of the Milwaukee southpaws. We’ll take a shot against Freddy Peralta, the lone Milwaukee righty scheduled to start in this series. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. right-handers.
Miami at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins played poorly against Atlanta and Chicago this past week, snapping a five game losing streak with a 14 inning win on Sunday at Wrigley. They rank next to last in offense in the National League (.674 OPS), averaging just 3.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are the 3rd best offense in the NL (.769 OPS), averaging 5.3 runs per game so far. They have two outstanding arms in Zac Gallen (+$315, 2.53 ERA) and Merrill Kelly (+$220, 3.20). both of whom are slated to take turns in this series, as Arizona looks to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West. BEST BET: Gallen/M. Kelly.
Washington at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Nationals remain in last place in the NL East, but they’ve been a money-maker up to this point against right-handed pitching (+$760), having racked up huge profits vs. righties on the road in 2022 (+$2120). The Giants remain below .500, with a 9-13 (-$440 record vs. right-handers so far. Jake Irvin has a nice first outing for Washington last week (2.08 ERA) and should catch a fat price vs. Anthony DeSclafani in the series opener. BEST BET: J. Irvin.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Guardians lost money vs. the Tigers in head to head play last year (-$500) and they continue to struggle to score runs. Their .631 team OPS is the worst in the American League, and they are only 4-9 vs. left-handers so far (-$1025). The Tigers started out poorly, but they’ve become a profitable club (+$740). Eduardo Rodriguez has emerged as the ace of the Detroit rotation (1.81 ERA), and one of the best left-handers in MLB. He should make short work of the Guardians at Progressive Field. BEST BET: E. Rodriguez.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rays are now 28-7 (+$1745) and remain the top team in MLB in all categories (.869 OPS, 3.01 ERA). They erased a six run deficit vs. Gerrit Cole & the Yankees on Sunday, pushing New York 10 games off the pace in the AL East. However, the Orioles will be one of the toughest challenges they face. Baltimore has been immensely profitable over the past two seasons (+$1015 so far in 2023), with an offense that averages 5.4 runs per game. We’ll keep a close eye on these two as the series progresses. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees are hovering just above .500 as they return home from a trip to Tampa Bay. They’ll draw a soft opponent in the Bronx this week, when the 8-27 Athletics come to town. Oakland (-$1320 overall) checks in with a pitiful 7.25 team ERA, but it’s hard to pull the trigger on the Yankees, who will be prohibitively priced favorites throughout. New York is averaging barely 4.0 runs per game, so we’re inclined pass on these two. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Royals did turn a profit against the White Sox in 2022 (+$505), but they are only 9-26 to begin the year (-$1375), including a disastrous 3-16 mark here at Kaufman Stadium. Not much to recommend the White Sox at this point (-$1000 overall), but they are getting a nice return to form by Lucas Giolito, who has posted a 1.98 ERA in his two most recent appearances. KC averages just 3.8 runs per game vs. right-handed starters. BEST BET: Giolito.
Houston at L.A. Angels (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels went 6-13 vs. the Astros in 2022 (-$660) but there is reason for optimism in LA. In addition to staff ace Shohei Ohtani, they are getting a strong performance by Patrick Sandoval, who comes in with a 2.94 ERA in his six outings so far. He’ll catch a generous price against the defending champion Astros, who are limping along at .500 (-$775 overall). Houston has averaged just 3.0 runs per game in the last 10 days. BEST BET: Sandoval.
Texas at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rangers continue to hold the top slot in the AL West, with a stellar offense (.800 OPS) that averages 6.7 runs per game. But they were only 5-14 vs. the Mariners in head to head play last year (-$870) and their top starters are not slated to appear at T-Mobile. Seattle has gotten excellent work from George Kirby (3.11) and Luis Castillo (2.38), both of whom are expected to take the mound against Texas. BEST BET: Kirby/L. Castillo.
Colorado at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Pirates remain atop the NL Central standings despite losing their last seven in a row (+$1025 overall). Those defeats came against two very formidable AL East clubs. Now they face a Colorado team with a 4.96 team ERA (3rd worst in the league) and an offense that averages just 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers (8-15, -$335). Mitch Keller has been effective in seven appearances so far (+$475, 3.32 ERA) and looks like a solid value in the series opener, as the Bucs look to snap their recent slide. BEST BET: M. Keller.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Stunning collapse by the Cardinals so far in 2023, considering they won 93 games last year. They are the biggest money-burners in MLB at the moment (11-24, -$2065). Their starting rotation has a 5.99 ERA in the past 10 days. In addition, they are only 1-13 in night games vs. right-handers (-$1510). They’ll have to contend with Marcus Stroman (2.18 ERA in 7 starts) and Jameson Taillon (3.38 last two). The Cubs have turned a modest profit playing at Wrigley Field (+$250). BEST BET: Stroman/Taillon.
L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Dodgers have won 8 of their last 10 (+$540) and jumped into 1st place in the NL West. They’ve gone 17-8 vs. right-handers (+$490), averaging 6.1 runs per game in those contests. The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 9 (-$460), averaging just 3.3 runs per game over that period. LA has not done well against left-handers in 2023, so steer clear of the Milwaukee southpaws. We’ll take a shot against Freddy Peralta, the lone Milwaukee righty scheduled to start in this series. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. right-handers.
Miami at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins played poorly against Atlanta and Chicago this past week, snapping a five game losing streak with a 14 inning win on Sunday at Wrigley. They rank next to last in offense in the National League (.674 OPS), averaging just 3.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are the 3rd best offense in the NL (.769 OPS), averaging 5.3 runs per game so far. They have two outstanding arms in Zac Gallen (+$315, 2.53 ERA) and Merrill Kelly (+$220, 3.20). both of whom are slated to take turns in this series, as Arizona looks to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West. BEST BET: Gallen/M. Kelly.
Washington at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Nationals remain in last place in the NL East, but they’ve been a money-maker up to this point against right-handed pitching (+$760), having racked up huge profits vs. righties on the road in 2022 (+$2120). The Giants remain below .500, with a 9-13 (-$440 record vs. right-handers so far. Jake Irvin has a nice first outing for Washington last week (2.08 ERA) and should catch a fat price vs. Anthony DeSclafani in the series opener. BEST BET: J. Irvin.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Guardians lost money vs. the Tigers in head to head play last year (-$500) and they continue to struggle to score runs. Their .631 team OPS is the worst in the American League, and they are only 4-9 vs. left-handers so far (-$1025). The Tigers started out poorly, but they’ve become a profitable club (+$740). Eduardo Rodriguez has emerged as the ace of the Detroit rotation (1.81 ERA), and one of the best left-handers in MLB. He should make short work of the Guardians at Progressive Field. BEST BET: E. Rodriguez.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rays are now 28-7 (+$1745) and remain the top team in MLB in all categories (.869 OPS, 3.01 ERA). They erased a six run deficit vs. Gerrit Cole & the Yankees on Sunday, pushing New York 10 games off the pace in the AL East. However, the Orioles will be one of the toughest challenges they face. Baltimore has been immensely profitable over the past two seasons (+$1015 so far in 2023), with an offense that averages 5.4 runs per game. We’ll keep a close eye on these two as the series progresses. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees are hovering just above .500 as they return home from a trip to Tampa Bay. They’ll draw a soft opponent in the Bronx this week, when the 8-27 Athletics come to town. Oakland (-$1320 overall) checks in with a pitiful 7.25 team ERA, but it’s hard to pull the trigger on the Yankees, who will be prohibitively priced favorites throughout. New York is averaging barely 4.0 runs per game, so we’re inclined pass on these two. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Royals did turn a profit against the White Sox in 2022 (+$505), but they are only 9-26 to begin the year (-$1375), including a disastrous 3-16 mark here at Kaufman Stadium. Not much to recommend the White Sox at this point (-$1000 overall), but they are getting a nice return to form by Lucas Giolito, who has posted a 1.98 ERA in his two most recent appearances. KC averages just 3.8 runs per game vs. right-handed starters. BEST BET: Giolito.
Houston at L.A. Angels (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels went 6-13 vs. the Astros in 2022 (-$660) but there is reason for optimism in LA. In addition to staff ace Shohei Ohtani, they are getting a strong performance by Patrick Sandoval, who comes in with a 2.94 ERA in his six outings so far. He’ll catch a generous price against the defending champion Astros, who are limping along at .500 (-$775 overall). Houston has averaged just 3.0 runs per game in the last 10 days. BEST BET: Sandoval.
Texas at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rangers continue to hold the top slot in the AL West, with a stellar offense (.800 OPS) that averages 6.7 runs per game. But they were only 5-14 vs. the Mariners in head to head play last year (-$870) and their top starters are not slated to appear at T-Mobile. Seattle has gotten excellent work from George Kirby (3.11) and Luis Castillo (2.38), both of whom are expected to take the mound against Texas. BEST BET: Kirby/L. Castillo.
