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[Mizzou]

Big Al/Brian Gabrielle

GameDate: Saturday, September 11, 2004 3:30 PM
Matchup: Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Grade: Premium Play
Selection: Play is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line Type: Point Spread
Line Source: Pinnacle Sportsbook
Line: -13.0 / -101

Reason:
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on Notre Dame over Michigan, as the
Fighting Irish have revenge from a 38-0 loss at Michigan last year. But
that was just the 3rd time that the favorite has covered in this series
since 1980. These 2 rivals have played 18 games and the underdog is
15-3 ATS. Also, College teams playing with revenge from a shutout loss
are 138-96 ATS. Finally, Michigan has an incredible dichotomy in their
first road game of the season. Since 1980, the Wolves are 9-1 ATS when
they're not favored, but they're 1-13 ATS as a favorite, including 0-11
ATS when favored by less than 20 points. Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS as a dog
in their first home game of the year, and we'll play on the Irish to
rebound off their loss at Brigham Young. Good luck, as always...Al
McMordie. And be sure to get on board for my evening 3-game package, as
well as my Conference Game of the Month and my Non-Conference Game of
the Year. All these winners are available right now.

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Ref# 153258
GameDate: Saturday, September 11, 2004 1:00 PM
Matchup: Ball State Cardinals @ Purdue Boilermakers
Grade: Premium Play
Selection: Play is Purdue Boilermakers
Line Type: Point Spread
Line Source: Pinnacle Sportsbook
Line: -30.0 / -104

Reason:
At 1:00 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Purdue over Ball State, as
the Boilermakers fall into a Shutout angle that is 29-6 ATS since 1984.
What we want to do is play on any home favorite of -2 to -33 points that
scored 40+ points in a home shutout win the previous game, provided
they're matched up against a foe off a loss. Last week, Joe Tiller's
crew routed Syracuse 51-0, while Ball State hung tough against Boston
College before falling 19-11. Look for another blowout on Saturday
afternoon.

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Ref# 153257
GameDate: Saturday, September 11, 2004 12:00 PM
Matchup: UCLA Bruins @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Grade: Premium Play
Selection: Play is Illinois Fighting Illini
Line Type: Point Spread
Line Source: Pinnacle Sportsbook
Line: 1.5 / -104

Reason:
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Illinois Illini, who
have revenge from a 6-3 loss to the Bruins of UCLA last year. Last
year's loss started a 10-game losing streak for Illinois, but they
snapped that last week when they defeated Florida A&M. UCLA, meanwhile,
was beaten in the Rose Bowl by Oklahoma State, 31-20, as a 1-point
favorite. Now, UCLA has been installed as a small-road favorite at
Illinois, but Game 2 Road Favorites of 6 or less points, that won 8 or
less games the previous year, are 0-11 ATS if they're off a home loss
of 20 points or less, and weren't favored by more than 10 points in
that loss. Last year, Illinois outgained UCLA by 80 yards, but had 4
turnovers vs. 1 for UCLA. With 16 starters returning, Ron Turner's men
will be more composed on Saturday. Take Illinois.
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POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

RATINGS: The lower the number, the higher the play. Top rating of 1. Normally two teams a week rated 1. All choices are listed in order of preference. Key Releases are teams rated 4 or higher. Teams rated 5 are considered recommended plays.

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* ALABAMA over Mississippi
1* WAKE FOREST over East Carolina
2* COLORADO over Washington State
3* CONNECTICUT over Duke
4* OREGON over Indiana
4* NORTHWESTERN over Arizona State
5* OHIO U over Pittsburgh
5* OKLAHOMA STATE over Tulsa

NFL KEY RELEASES
3* BALTIMORE over Cleveland
3* ST LOUIS over Arizona
4* NEW YORK JETS over Cincinnati
4* NEW ORLEANS over Seattle
5* WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay

Analysis of top rated selections

ALABAMA 38 - Mississippi 13 -(9:00 - ESPN2) Sets up perfectly for Bama, which cruised vs UtahSt, & which has WCaro on deck. Balanced attack, with Croyle the guiding hand (16-of-22 LW). OleMiss managed just 1.8 ypr, with Spurlock a paltry 11-of-31, in loss to Memphis. Tide has rolled here. Again.

Wake Forest 45 - EAST CAROLINA 20 - 7:00) Of course, this all depends on Deacons' "mental" after heartbreaking loss at Clemson, in which they held a 254-83 RY edge (Barclay: 179 RYs). Penalty yds (125) killed Wake in that one. Should be able to rebound vs a Pirate squad which allowed 478 RYs in lambasting at WV. Ranked 105th in rush "D" LY, so can this be anything but?

Colorado 31 - WASHINGTON STATE 21 (3:30 - ABC - @ Seattle) These 2 posted heartstopping opening wins, with the Buffs posting TD saving tackle on final play, while Coogs needed 2 TDs in last 10 minutes for escape at NewMex. Four takeaways were vital for WSt, which allowed 415 yds, & can't run the ball (1.0 ypr). Contrast that to CU's 215 RY edge (Purify: 189 yds). Call revenge.

Baltimore 27 - CLEVELAND 17 -(1:00) First of just 5 inter-divisional matches this week. The Ravens did a job on the Brownies LY (33-13 & 35-0 blowouts), in games featuring a blistering overland game. Check RYs edges of 343-60 & 276-78 in those two routs. Cleveland'squestionable "O" line hardly figures to do any dominating vs Raven's exquisite "D". Browns topped 20 pts only 3 times in '03, so acquisition of QB Garcia is a quick plus, as is TE Winslow. But can't see complete series turnaround. Ravens 14-6 ATS in division openers.

ST LOUIS 34 - Arizona 13 - (1:00) The Rams have had 8 months to stew over crucial mental mistakes in LY's playoff loss to the Panthers. To say that they cannot wait until the start of the season, would be an understatement. Bulger should be more comfortable, with the departure of Warner, & remember that StLouis' low water home scoring mark was 27 pts, before that post-season setback. The home team has covered 13 of the last 14 games involving the Cards, so we aren't about to jump that particular ship. Dennis Green will be an unquestioned plus for 'Zona, but until we see that uptick, we ride the host mule.

 

[Mizzou]

WINNINGPOINTS

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** Baltimore over *Cleveland by 17
*** Tennessee over *Miami by 16

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Detroit over *Chicago by 7
*San Francisco over Atlanta by 6

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** PENN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14
*** TEXAS over ARKANSAS* by 24

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Virginia Tech* over Western Michigan by 34
Miami O. over Cincinnati* by 11
Georgia Tech over Clemson* by 2
Colorado over Washington State* by 8 (at Seattle)

Analysis of "Best Bet" Rated Selections

****BEST BET
Baltimore over *Cleveland by 17

Jamal Lewis and the Ravens defense have been a tough combination for the Browns to crack. The Ravens have won and covered four of their last five times in Cleveland. The Ravens swept the Browns last year, outscoring them by a combined margin of 68-13. Lewis was a one-man wrecking crew rushing for a staggering 500 yards against the Browns in last season?s two games. Lewis? pending drug conspiracy trial couldn?t come soon enough for Cleveland. Unfortunately it won?t help the Browns here. The Ravens have held the Browns to an average of 8.6 points the past three meetings. The Ravens, No. 3 in defense last year, are just as tough this season adding Deion Sanders to fill their one hole at nickel back. During preseason the Ravens defense allowed only three touchdowns, with two coming against backups. The Browns, on the other hand, have trouble scoring. In four of the past five seasons they?ve ranked 32nd, 32nd, 25th and 29th in scoring. Cleveland is changing its offense switching to a power ground attack with running backs Lee Suggs and William Green. The Ravens and Ray Lewis, though, are extremely tough to run on. Browns QB Jeff Garcia is an upgrade on Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb, but he hasn?t had enough time to get adjusted to his new surroundings. The Ravens figure to be conservative on offense with second-year man Kyle Boller at quarterback. They should be fine running Lewis, with Boller throwing an occasional safe pass to keep the Browns from stacking the line too much. The Browns lack playmakers in their secondary, and their linebackers are slow and susceptible to cutbacks. No back exploited this more last year than Lewis. There is a class difference between these two teams. Laying a short number on the road isn?t too much to ask in this matchup. BALTIMORE 27-10.

***BEST BET
Tennessee over *Miami by 16

No team had a worse off-season than Miami. Call it the off-season from hell. The Dolphins lost most of their starting offensive line from a year ago, had assistant coaching turmoil and suffered key injuries, among them losing WR David Boston for the season. If this wasn?t demoralizing enough, Ricky Williams decided to take a hike at the last moment leaving the Dolphins? ground game in tatters. Talk about going to pot in a hurry. Thanks for the memories Ricky. When you can?t run the ball well, and you?re not a good throwing team, you don?t have a whole lot to fall back on. Such is the sad case with Miami. WR Chris Chambers and TE Randy McMichael are good receivers, but there?s no one to get them the ball. Morale and confidence are two words you don?t hear much around Miami these days. The Titans lost pass rushing star Jevon Kearse, but had the fifth-best run defense last season. Even without Kearse, the Titans? defensive line should control a Miami offensive line that couldn?t open a hole during preseason that an ant could fit through. The Titans offense, on the other hand, was sharp during preseason. Steve McNair looked in mid-season form, which is saying a lot since McNair was co-MVP last year. Tennessee?s offensive line also was playing well, and new tailback Chris Brown is an upgrade from over-the-hill plodder Eddie George. Brown gives the Titans an outside threat, something George hasn?t provided the past couple of years. The Dolphins lost their home mystique last year, covering just one of eight games at Pro Player Stadium. Their defense is weaker minus traded sack leader Adewale Ogunleye. LB Zach Thomas is trying to bounce back from injury, and the new enforcement of the chuck rule hurts Miami?s more than other teams because its cornerbacks play physical. TENNESSEE 19-3.

****BEST BET
PENN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14

Those that try to make the case that Joe Paterno has stayed a bit too long in Happy Valley might be right to a degree, but only to a degree. Yes, there have been some losing seasons for the Nittany Lions in this recent stretch, but at the same time he also turned out two teams in the past five seasons that were just a few bounces of the ball from being National Championship contenders. While this year?s team is not going to reach back to that level, they are among the nation?s most improved sides. Incentive is easy to come by here after an embarrassing 27-14 home loss to these Eagles to open last season, a game in which they trailed 21-0 at halftime and were pelted by boos from their own fans. It was a much different story in the opening rout of Akron, with Galen Hall?s offensive designs getting the best out of the multi-talented players available. Between Zack Mills, Michael Robinson and Austin Scott he has an explosive offense backfield to work with, and that is a comfort that the limited Eagles do not have. The B.C. offense struggled mightily against Ball State on the road and needed a kickoff return for a TD to break that game open, and with key cogs RB LV Whitworth, OT Jeremy Trueblood and WR Larry Lester all hobbled, they lack the tools to challenge a defense that just shackled Charlie Frye. If Whitworth can not go here it means too much falls on the shoulders of QB Paul Peterson and a young OL that needs time to develop. Even if he does go, the Lions get their revenge anyway. PENN STATE 31-17.

***BEST BET
TEXAS over ARKANSAS* by 24

Mack Brown has had some dark moments since taking over the head job in Austin. But in some ways last year?s 38-28 home loss to Arkansas might have bothered him more than any other ? his Longhorns were simply man-handled at the line of scrimmage, getting out-rushed 265-62 in that one-sided defeat. A team with the Texas level of talent is never supposed to get out-rushed by 200+ yards at home, and that told Brown that it was time for a change of tactics. So away went Carl Reese and his defensive schemes, and in came Gregg Robinson, to install a more aggressive ?stop the run first? dynamic on that side of the ball. That defense accounted itself well in dominating North Texas last week (allowed four first downs and 130 yards, and held Patrick Cobbs to Minus yards rushing), and now is ready to redeem itself against the team that dealt them such a physical beating LY. Of course, it is the same team in name and uniform color only. The Razorbacks return only QB Matt Jones from that starting lineup, and while the raw talent was good enough for them to coast past New Mexico State, the cohesion is certainly not there for them to step up against this class. The picture is also bleak for the home team on the other side of the ball, with a young (only one senior starter on the whole defensive unit right now) and under-sized defensive line no match for the best Texas ground attack of the Brown era. Payback time for a visitor that not only wants to win, but wants to win big. TEXAS 37-13.

 

[Mizzou]

1. WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER 5 WINS; 1 LOSS (83.3%)
2. THE STEAM SHEET 4 WINS; 1 LOSS (80%)
3. THE RED SHEET 4 WINS; 2 LOSSES (66%)
4. THE SPORTS REPORTER MID-WEEK ALERT 2 WINS; 1 LOSS (66%)
5. POINTWISE COLLEGIATE PROHPECY 5 WINS; 3 LOSSES (62.5%)
6. THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA 3 WINS; 2 LOSSES (60%)
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7. THE SPORTS REPORTER 5 WINS; 5 LOSSES (50%)
8. NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP 2 WINS; 3 LOSSES (40%)
9. THE GOLD SHEET 1 WIN; 2 LOSSES (33%)
10. CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF 0 WINS; 5 LOSSES (0%)

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CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* UTAH STATE over Idaho
10* OHIO over Pittsburgh
10* MIDDLE TENN. STATE over Akron
10* SYRACUSE over Buffalo
10* OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24

ANALYSIS
PREFERENCES
11 *UTAH STATE over Idaho
Late Score Forecast:
*UTAH STATE 38 - Idaho 13
We always counsel not to overreact to the results of one game, especially a season-opener. But must have some reaction (horror? pity?) to Idaho being laid bare last week, 65-7, at the hands of its rival Boise State. Vandals were outgained 572 to 212 and scored their only TD on a 71-yard run with just 1:20 left in the game. Rookie HC Holt (former USC LB coach) clearly has his work cut out with Idaho squad that lacks experience (only 8 starters return) & depth just about everywhere. Utah State much further along in HC Dennehy?s 5th season. Sr. QB Travis Cox started all 12 games LY. Cox kept Aggies mostly competitive in opener at Alabama (USU trailed by only 17 after 3 Qs) with a pair of TDP to his speedy new true frosh weapons, RB Chris Forbes & WR Kevin Robinson (from Florida & California, respectively). Aggies, who?ve developed a mean streak at Logan (last 3 wins there by 29 ppg!), shouldn?t need much
more than that emerging triumvirate to get comfy win.


10 OHIO over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO 19 - *Pittsburgh 24
MAC scouts consider Ohio an improving side now that Bobcats have scrapped their landlocked former option attack. We concur. OU hadn?t averaged even a 100 ypg passing in a season for a decade before QB Hawk led offense to 154 ypg thru the air LY. And sr. Hawk & the Bobcats poised to take another step forward in 2004. Ohio struck near perfect balance (230 YR, 229 YP) in 42-14 opening win over VMI last week. Hawk threw 3 TDP, while RBs sr. Roush & RS frosh McRae each had 100+ YR. Tough for transitioning Pittsburgh attack to distance itself in first game without departed o.c. Brookhart and stars Rutherford & Fitzgerald. Those losses being compounded by further attrition (top returning WR Brockenbrough injured & top RB Jawan Walker ineligible), while Panther soph QB Palko making his first start. Pitt HC Harris 5-12 as chalk; 1-6 laying DDs L2Ys! Take.

10 MIDDLE TENN. STATE over *Akron
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENN. STATE 27 - *Akron 23
CKO scouts somewhat surprised Akron is laying a full TD to an athletic, well-coached, hungry Middle Tennessee State squad eager to start season with a win after its ?paycheck? game at Florida was postponed (until Oct.) due to Hurricane Frances. Look for Blue Raiders competent QBs Harris and/or Marks (still competing) & topflight corps of WRs?featuring acrobatic 5-9 Wright (73 catches, school record 9 TDs LY) & 5-7, 185 juco Baker (nicknamed ?The Touchdown Maker?)?to fully exploit a totally rebuilt Zip 2ndary lacking much cohesiveness. And MTS able toestablish run right away vs. still-soft Akron front 7 (4.7 ypc LY) that gave up a whopping 342 YR in 48-10 slaughter at Penn State. Zips dynamic 6-4 sr. QB Frye still developing rapport with a new group of wideouts, and doubt mediocre RBs (just 72 YR vs. Nittany Lions) get untracked vs. a solid, deep Blue Raider front 7 that HC McCollum boasts is his best group ever! And this road trip like walk in the park for road-tested MTS, whichtraveled to Georgia, Clemson and Missouri in early nonconference tilts LY (covered 2 of those). Akron only 1-6 as home chalk last 3+ seasons.

10 SYRACUSE over *Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
SYRACUSE 42 - *Buffalo 16
After being humiliated 51-0 on national TV by sr. QB Orton and the high-tech passing of Purdue, Syracuse HC Paul Pasqualoni in desperate need of a victory, especially here in his home state. And Pasqualoni?s now under-fire defense will be desperate to redeem itself. Fortunately, it can gang up against the run against a hard-trying Buffalo team that has only 7 TDP in its last 12 games against Div. I-A competition. Moreover, Orange A-A RB Rhodes (1347 YR & 20 TDR LY) will get going against the undersized Bull front seven, taking loads of pressure off the green, but quick, Syracuse QBs. And, with the pressure mounting on Pasqualoni, expect little mercy vs. Buffalo, which lost by scores of 38-15 to Colgate & 38-7 to Connecticut at home LY, and 63-7 the last time it played Syracuse (four years ago, on the road). Scouts report Orange supporters, after the drive west, likely to outnumber the Bulls fans.

10 OAKLAND over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24
(Sunday, Sept. 12)
CKO insiders report Oakland team is much more motivated to excel in ?04 under highly-respected Norv Turer than it was under inflexible, unapproachable, and generally disliked Bill Callahan. And more harmonious, revenge-minded Raiders itching for rematch, since many disgruntled players lacked passion and focus when they lost at Pittsburgh 27-7 latter part of disastrous ?03. In that contest, shaky Steeler 2ndary not truly tested by Oakland?s limited QB Rick Mirer, who was starting due to injury to Rich Gannon. This time, look for a healthy, quicker Gannon (lost 10 lbs. during offseason), speedy stable of WRs, and a more vertical attack to do lots of business. Pittsburgh going with a more run-oriented attack this season, but that won?t be too effective vs. Raiders fortified DL (added DT Sapp & run-stuffer NTWashington), placing more pressure on erratic QB Maddox, who has thrown a whopping 33 ints. last 2 years. Oakland?s talented, veteran 2ndary is licking its chops! Steelers just 6-11 as home chalk last 2 yrs.

TOTALS: UNDER (35) in Jacksonville-Buffalo game?With these two defenses, must consider the prospect of very few TDs, especially since Bills went ?under? every home game LY...OVER (42) in Cincinnati-New York Jets game?Jets going to faster-paced offense; Carson Palmer and his ?big gun? will go down firing (maybe with a few damaging interceptions).

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): KANSAS (-2?) vs. Toledo?Holes in Toledo defense might be too much for QB Gradkowski to overcome on the road...UTAH (-12) at Arizona?Few teams in opening week showed as good of a quickness/power combo as Utes; few QBs were as accurate than Alex Smith; few offenses as versatile as Urban Meyer?s...FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+8) at North Texas?FAU has shown it can play with Mean Green; only negatives are the Owls? travel (at Hawaii last week) and the humiliation factor for North Texas (blown out 65-0 in Austin)...ST. LOUIS (-11?) vs. Arizona? If the refs call the no-contact rule the same as they did in the preseason, Rams? WRs should have a huge advantage...SAN DIEGO (+5) at Houston?Charger RB Tomlinson & QB Brees are both natives of Texas; would temper enthusiasm if Marty decides to go with rookie QB Rivers from the get-go.

 

[Mizzou]

THE GOLD SHEET TECHNICAL REPORT

SELECTIONS ARE IN BOLD PRINT!

VIRGINIA TECH
After facing top-ranked Southern Cal in its opener, Virginia Tech will get a chance to take out some frustration Saturday afternoon at Lane Stadium against outmanned Western Michigan. HC Frank Beamer?s Hokies, who throttled the Broncos by near-identical scores (30-0 & 31-0) in ?01 & ?02 meetings, have been very good value lately vs. non-conference opposition at Blacksburg, covering their last nine chances. Overall at home, VT has covered 6 of its last 7 as host, and covered 4 of 5 laying double digits at home a year ago. Meanwhile, WMU has hardly been an ornery underdog the past few seasons, standing a poor 3-10 vs. the number as the ?short? since ?02, and a mere 4-13 getting points since ?01.

SMU
The latest installment of the long-running Metroplex rivalry takes place Saturday night at Fort Worth when SMU invades to face TCU at Amon Carter Stadium. And the substantial pointspread hurdle could be a bit much for the Horned Frogs to overcome again. For the past two seasons, the Mustangs, a significant underdog on each occasion, covered handily vs. their local rival. Indeed, covering any number as chalk has been a chore for recentlyovervalued TCU, which has hardly proved worth the pointspread premium it?s been receiving lately, standing just 3-10-1 vs. the number its last 14 as favorite. The Frogs have also dropped 9 of their last 11 spread decisions as a doubledigit favorite. Fired-up SMU qualifies as a featured play this week in the Rivalry Underdog system as well.

TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech has held the upper hand in recent years in its meetings vs. regional rival New Mexico. The Red Raiders have won by double-digit margins the past four seasons vs. the Lobos and haven?t dropped a pointspread decision in the process. They also haven?t lost vs. the number the last six games in this series dating to 1994, and look to succeed again in Saturday night?s faceoff at Albuquerque. Overall, Tech has offered some pretty good value as a favorite the past few years for HC Mike Leach, standing 12-5 vs. the number as chalk since ?02.

CALIFORNIA
Is Cal a juggernaut? Perhaps so, if recent results are any indication, which is bad news for visiting New Mexico State on Saturday afternoon at Berkeley. Note that the Golden Bears stand a solid 14-6-2 vs. the number their last 22 games on the board (17-8-2 since ?02) for HC Jeff Tedford, qualifying themselves as a featured play in the College Coach & Pointspread system this week. As for the Aggies, it?s been one disappointment after another on the road the past few seasons, as they?ve dropped 12 of their last 17 spread decisions as a visitor.

DENVER
It?s opening week, which has been a good omen for the Denver Broncos the past few years. HC Mike Shanahan?s bunch has covered its last four lidlifters and looks to make it five straight when hosting Kansas City Sunday night at Invesco Field. Since Shanahan arrived in Denver as coach in ?95, the Broncos have covered 7 of 9 openers, and well as 7 of 9 home openers. They?ve also covered their last three chances at home against the AFC West rival Chiefs. And, upon further inspection, one discovers that Shanahan?s bunch has excelled the past few years when hosting division foes, winning and covering 9 of 10 vs. those sorts at Invesco since its opening in 2001.

 

[Mizzou]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:

BEST BETS
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY by 7
*NEW ORLEANS over SEATTLE by 7
UNDER 48, KANSAS CITY vs. *DENVER
*CAROLINA over GREEN BAY by 11

SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21

BEST BETS
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
*ALABAMA over MISSISSIPPI by 20

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*ILLINOIS over UCLA by 4
*CONNECTICUT over DUKE by 6
*NORTHWESTERN over ARIZONA ST. by 10
*OREGON over INDIANA by 12
*TCU over SMU by 14
TEXAS TECH over *NEW MEXICO by 13

ANALYSIS

BEST BET
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
Cleveland is the home dog with double-revenge and an entire off-season to prepare for a big intradivision re-match. The Browns have more revenge hidden behind the two lop-sided losses to Baltimore in 2003, because their new starting quarterback, Jeff Garcia, lost 44-6 to the Ravens late last season as a member of the 49ers, a game Garcia claims turned freaky in a hurry due to tipped balls. So, it?s put up or shut up for him.With Garcia behind center, the Browns gain an experienced,creative leader that has not existed for them at the position since they were re-born from scratch in 1999. The more accomplished quarterback is taking points. The Browns might even have the better defense when all is said and done this season, partly because they beefed up the DL depth in the off-season, partly because the entire unit figures to make strides in the second season under Dave Campo, partly because LB Warrick Holdman strengthens the linebacking unit, and partly because the Cleveland offensive line isn?t totally decimated by injuries going into the season like it was last year, ruining their first- and second-down production, making it harder for their lousy ex-QBs to succeed on third down, and preventing the defense from ever getting a rest. It?s the NFL, and beating the Browns three times in a row by jamming Jamal Lewis down their throats is not supposed to happen. But a drastic difference in approach is unlikely, since Baltimore QB Kyle Boller has only six NFL starts under his belt, vs. 71 for Garcia. CLEVELAND, 19-9.

BEST BET
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15
Inside job! Falcons? new head coach Jim Mora, Jr. was the 49ers?defensive coordinator for the last five seasons, and his offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp, had been involved as either a San Francisco offensive assistant or coordinator for the last nine seasons. Although the 49ers have turned over the roster more than the average team in the off-season, nobody on the planet knows the strengths and weaknesses of the San Francisco personnel, and coaches, better than these two guys who now call the shots for the Falcons. Each of them knows full well that Erickson wants to open up the 49ers? offense with players who have not had featured roles within the system for very long. New starting QB Tim Rattay missed Spring practice with a badly pulled groin, didn?t make his pre-season debut until Game 3, and is supported in the backfield by a potential fumbler, Kevan Barlow, who himself is no longer supported by the presence of running mate Garrison Hearst. Asking these guys to carry the burden of offensive responsibilities in a more finesse-oriented arrangement is asking for trouble. San Francisco had an NFC best +12 Turnover Ratio last season (with the synergy between Mora?s defense and Knapp?s offense), yet still finished sub.-500. They are now on track to make more turnovers, which normally doesn?t translate to more wins. Meanwhile, Atlanta?s 1-2 punch of Mr. Inside T.J. Duckett,and Mr. Outside Warrick Dunn, can stay fresh and tire out the 49ers? defense, which then must find the energy to chase Michael Vick around the field. ATLANTA, 31-16.

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21
New Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio has a good preparation pal in the team?s new defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, who was most recently Miami-OH?s defensive coordinator. Perhaps being armed with Narduzzi?s inside knowledge of this particular opponent is what mboldened Dantonio to add some spice to the in-state rivalry by publicly knocking Miami-OH for opening the season with Division 1-AA Indiana State. He?s daring Miami-OH to show them something, confident that Narduzzi can put his defensive personnel in place to counter nearly everything in the Miami-OH playbook now that the visitors? plays are being executed by players other than ex-starting QB Ben Roethlisberger and some of the most massive departed senior offensive linemen in America. That confidence can prompt Dantonio to give the green light to his own QB, senior stat-seeker Gino Guidugli, who will find this secondary quite easy to riddle. Cincinnati, 41-20.

BEST BET
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
Colorado has some anger brewing inside from last year?s 47-26 loss to Washington State, and some real positive energy following last week?s wild/wacky 27-24 non-cover win vs. archrival Colorado State. Colorado knows it?s not likely to get burned by big passing plays as was the case against Wazzu last year (74- and 77-yard TD pass plays). Gotta love that CU has the better quarterback, Joel Klatt, who completed all but two aerials attempts in 15 tries last week. Observing WSU QB Josh Swogger last Friday night reveals a kid who doesn?t always feel the pocketcollapsing around him. Also, quality Klatt is not Cole McCamey, the sub-par first-time starting New Mexico QB that WSU picked to death. Colorado, 30-21.

BEST BET
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
Last season?s Happy Valley, PA audience paid to see Bizarro Theatre, an offbeat, offensive dark comedy produced by Penn State. Immediately down 7-0, a three-and-out non-drive that started on their own 19 caused Penn State to hand BC great starting field position for the Eagles? second drive, also ending in a TD. Then, a Zack Mills INT on his own one-yard-line cued the Fat Lady, who launched into the grotesque, ?21-0 First Quarter Aria? as the curtain came down crashing on the head of a thrashing, spasming Joe Pa. The Nittanys moved the ball well enough during a comeback attempt that was doomed by BC?s expertise at chewing the clock. But a 10-play, 53-yard drive ended in a fumble, as did a 6-play 55-yard drive, and PSU also missed a field goal after taking possession at the BC 47. Facts are that the BC offense was not ?extended? against this opponent a year ago, and their new QB has no track record in contentious games as a favorite against Big Ten athletes like this unit, which played well last year and can easily improve with the maturity. Penn State, 23-13.

 

[Mizzou]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES:
N.Y. JETS by 15 over Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over Atlanta
OVER 45 total points in the Seattle-New Orleans game

NCAA KEY RELEASES:
VIRGINIA TECH by 36 over Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA STATE by 32 over Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH by 3 over Clemson

Analysis of Key Selections

NY JETS 31 - Cincinnati 16?First start for Cincy wonder child Carson Palmer. And Bengal off. coord. Bob Bratkowski has been telling Palmer all summer to prepare for every blitz, stunt, and disguised coverage in the book. Still, Palmer (had no reg.-season snaps LY) has to ?do it? on the field. And that should prove problematic against a NYJ defense that is faster, younger, healthier & deeper than LY and has adopted a more aggressive scheme under new def. coord. Donnie Henderson. New multi-millionaire QB Chad Pennington, running faster-paced scheme, has never looked better.

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 23?When former S.F. def. coord. Jim Mora Jr. left the 49ers to take over as Atlanta HC, Mora took S.F. off. coord. Gregg Knapp with him. Niner coach Dennis Erickson was quick to elevate assistants Ted Tollner to off. coord. & Willy Robinson to def. coord. So you can expect nothing but the best effort from S.F., whose top defender, LB Julian Peterson, has ended his holdout. And QB Rattay (groin, forearm) looked fine (14 of 18) once he got on the field in the late preseason. Falcon defense (last in NFL LY) youthful & problematic; Vick had only 29 exhibition snaps in new system!

OVER 45 points NEW ORLEANS 28 - Seattle 27?Seahawks were 8- 0 SU at home LY, but only 2-7 on the road. So, even with N.O. QB Aaron Brooks (check status; bothered by a strained ab in preseason) hobbled a bit, prefer to be taking with offensively-potent Saints, especially with speed receiver WR Stallworth healthy again. Still, best option in this one might be ?over,? as it?s hard to see either of these defenses dominating, considering new ?hands-off? guidelines. Might back off N.O. if Brooks much less than 100%. (03-SEATTLE 27-N. Orl. 10...N.20-17 S.33/151 N.25/103 N.29/47/1/256 S.12/23/0/119 S.0 N.3) (03-SEATTLE -3 27-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

VIRGINIA TECH 46 - Western Michigan 10?Tech has ruthlessly dispatched non-conf. foes at rowdy Lane Stadium recently, covering last 9 in role. Huge step up in class for WMU, and first road start for lightly-experienced jr. QB Baggett (3 TDP in 42-0 home win over Tenn.-Martin last week). Bread-and-butter Hokie ground game will face a lot less resistance from smallish Broncs than it did in opener against rockedribbed USC. Sr. QB Randall & HC Beamer out to renew VT?s confidence. (02-Virginia Tech -22' 30-0 01-VIRGINIA TECH -15 31-0...SR: Virginia Tech 2-0)

OKLAHOMA STATE 42 - Tulsa 10?OSU completed only two passes last week in 31-20 victory at UCLA. But that was okay, as its pro-caliber OL and highquality RBs pounded out 426 yds. on the ground (Morency 252!). Since hard-trying Tulsa has been whacked by combo 73-13 last two games (Ga. Tech in bowl; Kansas last week) outside of defense-shy WAC and top LB Pinson (6-1, 240) back from injury list for bigger, deeperCowboys, will side with class difference.

Georgia Tech 27 - CLEMSON 24?Last 7 meetings decided by total of only 23 points (including 6 straight by a FG!) before Clemson caught Ga. Tech coming off a gut-wrenching 14-13 loss at Fla. State in LY?s blowout. Tigers managed to survive Wake?s upset bid last week, but Clemson attack clearly missed injured top RB Coleman. Defensive edge to Jackets. And rugged sr. RB Daniels (169 YR, 3 TDs in opener) a valuable vs. speed-oriented Tiger defense. QB Ball muchimproved TY.

 

[Mizzou]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK NOTRE DAME +12 over MICHIGAN

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Texas over ARKANSAS
3* ALABAMA over Ole Miss
3* TEXAS A&M over Wyoming
2* S. Miss (+) over NEBRASKA
2* Iows St. (+) over IOWA
2* Penn State over BOSTON COLLEGE


SUMMARY OF NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Jacksonville over BUFFALO
3* ST. LOUIS over Arizona
2* Tampa Bay over WASHINGTON
2* Detroit over CHICAGO

==================================

PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Penn State over BOSTON COLLEGE by 7
Rest assured, this is a game Joe Pa will have a vested interest in. Nittany Lions are 11-1 ATS as underdogs or short favorites in their first road game of the season and Boston College is 0-4 ATS at home against avenging non-conference foes in its last four tries. We said last week that we thought Penn State would return to glory this season and avenging last season's 13-point home loss is one of the biggest red circles on its calendar. The young Eagles step up in class after playing barefooted Ball State last week.

SUMMARY OF 5* SELECTIONS: (LASR YEAR OVER 74%)
TEXAS
BRONCOS
SAINTS UNDER

SUMMARY OF 4* SELECTIONS:
NOTRE DAME
DOLPHINS
STEELERS OVER

SUMMARY OF 3* SELECTIONS:
SOU. MISS.
SAINTS
49ers UNDER

Analysis of 5* Best Bet Selections

Texas over ARKANSAS by 14
Texas remembers well laying 13.5 at home to the Pigs lastseason and taking a 10 point loss to the locker room. That revenge and the fact that Arkansas has only four returning starters from that upset win has us smelling a roast. Remember, the Longhorns were 5-0 SUATS as visitors last season and are 26-6-1 ATS in SU revenge wins. In fact, Mack Brown himself stands 18-3 ATS in SU revenge victories. LeHog is 6-36-1 ATS in SU home losses. Hook 'em Horns.

DENVER over Kansas City by 13
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five home openers, 4-1 ATS as home chalk of -3 or less, 9-1 ATS at home vs the division and 4-0 ATS vs division opponents with revenge. All of this is the handiwork of Head Coach Mike Shanahan, the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser feature at the bottom of page 2 (the fact that Shanahan's teams have gone 44-10-1 ATS lifetime when winning a division game certainly bears repeating). Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as road dogs of +3 or less. With every one pencilling in KC into the AFC Championship game, we'll erase those thoughts and take the Broncos in the toughest venue in the NFL.

=====================================

MTi NFL Report
MTI?s NFL Selections . . . Week #1, 2004

Side Play of the Week!!
4* CHICAGO -3 over Detroit?Chicago has beaten the
Lions straight up as a favorite at home in each of the
past three seasons and we see no reason for this to
change here. Bears QB Grossman has not exactly had
a stellar pre-season, but with a solid running game
(Thomas Jones 6.5 ypc in the preseason) and a solid
defense, the Bears should put this one in the win column
for new head coach Lovie Smith. The Bears have
road games vs Green Bay and Minnesota over the next
two weeks so they will go all out to ensure victory here
to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start.
The Lions are in a completely different scheduling
situation. They are on the road with two home games
next with the Texans next week. Detroit will save their
best effort for their winnable home opener. Historically,
the Lions have focused mainly on their home games.
There?s good reason for this as Detroit is 0-24 straight
up since 2001 on the road ? 0-30 including the preseason!
That?s right, the Lions have not won a road
game in three seasons. Their road ineptitude starts in
the first quarter of their road opener.
In their last three road openers, Detroit has been
outscored in the first quarter by a 42-3 margin!! Finally,
we have a league-wide system that has not lost
in thirteen seasons! It reads, ?The league is 10-0 ATS
since 1991 in game 1 as a 1-3 point favorite vs a divisional
opponent when they have a divisional opponent
next week as long as the total is fewer than 43 points.?
The Bears qualify here as they have the Packers next
week. The league has covered ? on the average ? by
more than a touchdown in this situation.
For most intents and purposes, Detroit?s season
starts next week when they host the Texans. Lay the
small number.
FORECAST: CHICAGO 24 Detroit 10

Other Side Selection
3* Baltimore -2? over CLEVELAND?The schedulemakers
have given the New Browns a chance to start
off the season with a win, as they have played game
one at home in each of their five seasons in the league.
Unfortunately, Cleveland has not taken advantage as
they are 0-5 straight up at home in game one.
The Ravens are very tough to beat when they are
favored and the OU line is low. Baltimore is a perfect
10-0 ATS when they are favored by more than two points
and the OU line is fewer than 38 points. In this situation
the Ravens have won by an average of 15.8 points
per game and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg. In
addition, the Browns perform terribly as a dog when
the OU line is low. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS as a dog when
the OU line is fewer than 38 points losing by an average
of 19.0 ppg and failing to cover by an average of
13.7 ppg. Yes, the Browns have revenge motivation for
their 13-33 and 0-35 losses but the smash-mouth Ravens
should rip the heart out of the Browns in the first half.
Finally, the Ravens qualify for the same system
mentioned in the top play. Specifically, ?The league is
10-0 ATS since 1991 in game 1 as a 1-3 point favorite
vs a divisional opponent when they have a divisional
opponent next week as long as the total is fewer than
43 points.? Baltimore hosts the Steelers next week so
this one qualifies.
Note: for many more great systems, including a
26-0 ATS system and a 22-0 OU system, order a copy
of the 262-page 2004 Killer Sports NFL Annual. See
the front page of this issue for a special offer.
FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 Cleveland 3

OU Play of the Week!!
4* Cincinnati at NY Jets UNDER 41?The Jets are
0-12 ATS and 2-10 their last dozen home openers. Head
coach Edwards knows about the Jets? poor starts and
will be very deliberate to prevent the costly turnover.
He will feature a stiff defense and a heavy dose of
Curtis Martin ? especially when they have the lead.
The Jets are 1-12 OU their last 13 as a home favorite
by at least 3 points, with an average OU margin of
minus 12.0 ppg.
The lone over was by two points in a game that included
a punt return for a TD and a TD drive of 11
yards after a fumble recovery. The average OU margin
in the 13 games is minus 12.0 ppg. In addition,
the Jets are 0-3 OU their last three vs non-divisional
opponents going under by an average of 17.5 ppg and
the Bengals are 0-3 OU since when their opponent is
playing in their home opener, with an average OU
margin of minus 14.2 ppg.
With Palmer seeing his first action as a rookie, Lewis
should play conservatively on offense to let Palmer get
acclimated to the pros. Everything points to a low scoring
game. Get it before it drops to 41 or below.
FORECAST: NY JETS 17 Cincinnati 16

 

[Mizzou]

THE RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* GEORGIA TECH
89* SYRACUSE
88* PENN STATE
88* COLORADO
88* ALABAMA
88* CAROLINA (NFL)
Analysis

Georgia Tech 24 - CLEMSON 22 - (8:00 EDT) Line opened at Clemson minus 9, and is now minus 7?. As our Wise Points section on Pointwise showed, this series is solidly in the domain of the underdog,with the pup covering an amazing 13-of-14 since '90, with final margins of exactly 3 pts for 6 consecutive years. A year ago, the dog still yapped, but it was far from a nailbiter, as the Tigers (+6) rolled by a 39-3 count. The fact of the matter, however, is that the Jackets were in off one of their most excruciating losses in their history, blowing a 13- 0 fourth quarter lead to FlaSt. They now catch the Tigers off a draining win over WakeForest, in a game that saw Clemson with a 254-83 RYdeficit. Overland game in this on squarely on Tech's side with Daniels. Revenge rears its head in this bitter rivalry.
RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89

Syracuse 37 - BUFFALO 10 - (6:00) Line opened at Syracuse minus 17, and is now minus 15?. The Orange have hit hard times, indeed, with their current 10-15 straightup record, since defeating KansasSt in the '01 Insight Bowl. As noted on this publication a week ago, they are reaping the seeds of yearly disappointing results in the all-important recruiting wars. The chorus calling for Pasqualoni's dismissal has grown to a crescendo of late, reaching its peak following Sunday's disastrous nationally televised 51-0 loss to Purdue. Thus, a plethora of negativity. However, the Bulls present the perfect foil to getting back on the right track. Buffalo is on SU runs of 1-22, & 7-45. 'Cuse simply underpriced in this setup.
RATING: SYRACUSE 89

Penn State 30 - BOSTON COLLEGE 20 - (8:00) Line opened at Boston College minus 2, & is now Penn St minus 1?. Not getting many breaks, as far as line changes are concerned, but neither,did we a week ago, in that satisfying opening week. We asked on our earlier edition, when Paterno was "serving notice" with the Lions' slaughter of Akron. Sure, the Zips are hardly a power, but returned a dozen starters from LY's decent 7-5 squad, which provided plenty of offensive fireworks. They managed just 10 pts, along with a 352-72 RY deficit vs the Nits, in that 22? pt spread loss. Eagles have played well vs State, but won'tduplicate LY's 21-0 first quarter lead, which quickly settled matters. Paterno revenger.
RATING: PENN STATE 88

Colorado 31 - WASHINGTON STATE 20 - (3:30) Line opened at Washington St minus 3, and is now minus 2?. As with PennSt & GaTech above, revenge is again front-&-center with this selection. The Coogs of WashSt are seeking their 4th consecutive 10-win season, & by year's end, things just may work out. However, they have been decimated by graduation, returning just 6 starters, including all defensive linemen, & their quarterback. Contrast that to Buffs returning 14 starters, including 7 down linemen, RB Purify, & QB Klatt. Note Purify's 189 RYs vs ColoSt, compared to WashSt's anemic 31 RYs vs NewMex last week. Year ago, all that could have gone wrong for Buffs in loss to Coogs, did. Changes here.
RATING: COLORADO 88

ALABAMA 38 - Mississippi 13 - (9:00) Line opened at Alabama minus 10, and is now minus 10?. As we figured a week ago, in naming Memphis as a Superior Play on the Red Sheet, the Rebs of Ole Miss would be hard pressed to come near duplicating their recent exploits, under the guiding hand of Eli Manning. That proved out in their opener, as they managed a paltry 58 RYs (just 1.8 yds per carry), in that 10-pt ATS setback. Spurlock, who carries the heavy cross of Manning's replacement, was able to click on only 11-of-31 passes vs the Tigers, while his counterpart, 'Bama QB Croyle was a solid 16-of-22 vs UtahSt. The Tide has won the last 2 as series host by near identical 45-7 & 42-7 scores. Once more.
RATING: ALABAMA 88

CAROLINA 26 - Green Bay 20 - (9:05 Monday) Line opened at Carolina minus 3, and is still minus 3. Despite the fact that the New England Pats are again world champs, 2003's true story just may have been the extraordinary & legitimate rise of these Panthers, as they came from a 1-15 record to within a few plays from Super Bowl winners in just 2 years. Fox has built a true contender, with that defense, a quality QB in Delhomme, & a powerful running game. The Packers have been one of the premier Monday Night plays lately, covering to the tune of 9-2, but during much of that span, they were among the elites. A definite feeling that despite presence of Favre, Green, etc, GreenBay is no longer in that column.
RATING: CAROLINA 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Wake Forest, Va Tech, Utah - NFL: Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia

 

[Mizzou]

BRIAN GABRIELLE NCAAF FOR FRIDAY

Game Date: Friday, September 10, 2004 10:00 PM

Matchup: Oregon St. Beavers vs Boise State Broncos

Grade: Premium Play
Selection: Play on Oregon St. Beavers
Line Type: Point Spread
Line Source: Pinnacle Sportsbook
Line: 7.5 / -102.0

Game Date: Friday, September 10, 2004 7:00 PM

Matchup: Florida State Seminoles vs Miami - FL Hurricanes
Grade: Premium Play
Selection: Play on Florida State Seminoles
Line Type: Point Spread
Line Source: Pinnacle Sportsbook
Line: 2.0 / -109.0

 

[skillrules]

Love the Newsletter records in post #3! Hopefully your source will provide that info all year. That winning points sheet has done pretty well for me when Ive paid attention to them.

Thanks for the info.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Great job, Mizzou...........GL, THE HITMAN

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Mizzou, you have this weeks letters?

 

[skillrules]

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=159248