Sf -4.5?

[TheShrimp]

It's not that I think ZONA is necessarily a bad bet at +4.5. I just thought the line would be a lot higher. Could it show up as a Goldman pick???

Consider that NYJ @ CHI last week was 6.5. On a neutral field, SF would give the jets points and CHI would give ZONA points, but this spread is LESS???

SF is nicked up, but they still have some home field to play for, and no one is listed as OUT.

I got a unit on this, but will seriously consider going for the middle if it climbs. Just really surprised it's under a TD.

[@SIA]

 

[gardenweasel]

oly at -4

oly at -4

and i bought down to 3.....then,hooked it up with the raiders -3(bought half)....if you notice lately,especally in the parity-ridden afc,these top rung clubs do quite well at home when laying small point spreads ...and the san fran game must be an overreaction to the cards staying close to a poor st louie club..if san fran blows here,they finish at st louie and could end the season on a 3 game losing streak.. san fran should play well coming off their home loss and i think as long as griese is qb`ing denver,-3 with oakland is a steal at home coming off a loss...i look for the oakland veterans to step up bigtime this week...denver doesn`t impress me...underachievers...as you can see,i`m not above buying points to get a favorable line.... .....g.l.,bud.

 

[TheShrimp]

SF @ OAK was OAK -3, meaning SF and OAK are even on a neutral field. And SF won.

OAK @ ZONA was an 8 point favorite. And OAK won 41-20.

I'm not trying to pull an "A beat B, B Beat C, so A should beat C" but this is just a very out of whack line to me.

STL was a 3.5 pt favorite at ZONA fachrissakes. Did that WIN over the mighty lions or hanging with the 6-7 Rams convince people that ZONA is for real?

I really thought this game would be 8.5 or so, maybe 7.5 at worse, and I was going to pound ZONA with the points. Now, it comes out at 4.5, which is much closer to what I think it really should be.

Here's the thing, that 8.5 or so is the kind of line I'm maybe used to seeing in years past. I'm kind of trying to piece together reasons why I had an off year this year, and this is the kind of game where I was really waiting for too big a line on the game. Maybe bettors are getting slicker at finding good dogs. Maybe I'm just slipping.

Who knows.

I grabbed some niners just hoping for a middle. I don't think its a great bet. I just think the line will go up.

 

[Valuist]

San Fran has the division locked up and basically has no shot at home field advantage so they must be thinking letdown. As bad as Arizona is, they looked like they were still trying last Sunday night. I'm guessing that's why the line seems low. OTOH, there isn't much difference between -4.5 and -5.5 since 5 is a very rare occuring number.

 

[Billy]

Also I think SF has already let it be known Garcia, Owens, and
a host of others are going to sit this one out and heal.....very
unpredictable game to consider in my opinion.........

 

[gardenweasel]

these are all solid points

these are all solid points

but i don`t think coach moochie wants to go into the playoffs on an 0-3 run........we all know the hot teams usually carry it into the playoffs and you can`t just turn it on when you want to...i wasn`t all that impressed with what arizona looked like vs a ram team in disarray...i hope the 9`ers come to play...and i don`t mind buying a point to 3 to get a little edge(although i did read the article regarding the sitting down of several players)...if i read more info indicating a "throw the game away mentality",i`ll buy off and lose the point buy money....thanks for the heads up.........g.l.

 

[GM]

San Fran has the division locked up and basically has no shot at home field advantage so they must be thinking letdown. As bad as Arizona is, they looked like they were still trying last Sunday night. I'm guessing that's why the line seems low. OTOH, there isn't much difference between -4.5 and -5.5 since 5 is a very rare occuring number.

That's what I was waiting for someone to point out, thank you Valuist. Lack of motivation. San Fran will be the #4 seed...division locked up, but can't move up unless they get a whole lot of luck (I am sure they aren't even thinking about moving up, remote a possibility as it is). It's not like they won't ~want~ to win, but after a number of important games this is basically an exhibition game to them while they wait for the playoffs to begin. Of course they are far better than the Cards...but without motivation, it's just a stab in the dark I think.

 

[pt1gard]

exactly on SF lack of MO

exactly on SF lack of MO

i looked at carib future and nearly came unglued when I saw SF in season finale is getting +7 at Rams--up 6 pts!! from last week ... then i realized, REST TIME AND WHO CARES ...

stay away from SF anyhow, they play every single game to last possession, or so it seems ...

take care, gregg

 

[cooz3]

sanfran..has absolutely nothiing to play for except pride....if they sit garcia and owens...this game is a toss up on the road....barlow is banged up and hearst....zona has been decimated by injuries but they have been playing for nothing since week ..well for a while....both teams were healthier in thier last match in sanfran...niners were up big when zona slowly snuck thier way back in the game and almost covered...i think jake had a like 4 picks or so...sanfran does not know how to close a game out...and ill take points against a team like that anytime on the road....believe me thats difficult to say...im a big niners fan...but i wouldnt be surprised in the least if sanfran was winning by 10 the whole game and zona scores a late touchdown to cover....be careful here...good luck...cooz

 

[gardenweasel]

if this is so easy

if this is so easy

why isn`t everyone slamming the cards at +4?.......based on what i`m hearing,this is an easy winner.....i know the guys on here are fairly sharp....why not hit this thing at +4 and wait for the line to drop to pick`em....with garcia,owens and all these guys out and no motivation other than to stay healthy,,would seem to make perfect sense....

 

[ferdville]

SF hasn't looked right in weeks; have nothing to play for but pride, and pride isn't much in evidence these days in NFL. Can't endorse Zona. Looks like one to stay clear of to me.

 

[GM]

Well, I said SF has no motivation here...but that doesn't mean I think Arizona is an easy spread cover either. These guys suck hind tit and are playing out the string too. What can you say about them that is encouraging? I can't think of anything. Like I said, as I see it, a total shot in the dark...50/50 chance of either team covering this number as I see it. No way I bet $$ on this game.

 

[gardenweasel]

happy to get the push

happy to get the push

sometimes it pays to spend a little dough and get a favorable line.....

 

[cooz3]

dont mean to say i told you so...but i saw this back door coming ..see earlier post in this thread.....cooz

 

[gardenweasel]

cooz

cooz

called it dead on...nice call....it ain`t braggin`when you hit the nail on the head......