HERE'S A FEW THINGS I LOVE TO LOOK AT WHEN CAPPING.
1) EPA per Play / Dropback (Season + Playoffs)
Offensive EPA per Play
| Team | EPA/Play | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots | ~+0.112 | Better offense overall, especially passing; highest dropback EPA (0.256) among the two. |
| Seahawks | ~+0.054 | Modest offensive EPA overall, less explosive on the ground and through the air. |
MY PATS vs Run Breakdown
Pats have higher dropback EPA and pass success rates — a strong passing unit historically. Seahawks are not as efficient in offensive EPA but balanced and effective enough.
Sharp Take: Patriots offense has the edge in pure EPA metrics. Seahawks offense is competent but behind. That often translates into true line overvalue on Pats if the market skews too far to Seattle.
📊 2) Success Rate Differential
Success Rate (offense)
Seattle: ~47.0%
New England: ~46.4%
Relatively even — this says both teams can move the chains, but neither dominates.
Defense Success Rate
Per PFF data:
Seattle defense has lower defensive success rates than Pats in some measures as a unit; Patriots slightly better on pass defense.
Sharp Take: Success rate gap is narrow — meaning expectation lines that are too wide aren’t justified purely by fundamental offensive success.
📊 3) Adjusted Line Yards vs. Pressure Rate
Official analytics show the Patriots offensive pressure rate and sack numbers are higher — suggesting their line struggled at times, especially in playoffs.
Meanwhile Seattle defensive front is elite at rushing and stopping the run.
Sharp Angle: Patriots QB may be vulnerable to pressure → bumps down offensive projection. Seahawks pressure is underrated.
📊 4) Cluster Injury Multipliers
Currently no verified public injuries reported significant enough to trigger a cluster effect. Both rosters are relatively healthy entering the game. (No major reports of multiple starters out from valid news sources.)
✔ No cluster injury discount or penalty on either side.
📊 5) Net Rest / Travel Handicap
Super Bowl is at neutral site — Levi’s Stadium (California).
- Both teams traveled equally; no Jet Lag bias.
- Rest is identical (both had long preparation weeks).
Sharp Take: No edge here.
📊 6) Turnover Regression / Fumble Luck
From advanced profiles: Patriots have historically better turnover margin. Neither team’s current playoff turnover performance is extreme enough to expect large regression.
Sharp Insight: Pats typically get slightly better turnover efficiency swings than average NFL teams — a subtle edge.
📊 7) Referee Tendencies
Crew Profile: Shawn Smith
Core identity = “LET THEM PLAY… except DBs”
Overall penalties
Fewer flags than league average~12 penalties/game (low)
~6 fewer yards than average crew
Very few:
Offensive holding
False starts
But…
🚨 HIGH on:
Defensive Pass Interference (DPI) and defensive holding
This is the key.
📊 What matters for betting is that there should be Fewer overall flags = faster game clock
Less holding
Less false starts
Less stoppages
👉 Clock runs
👉 Fewer drives
👉 Lower possessions
Sharp effect:
📉 Slight lean → UNDER
2️⃣ BUT heavy DPI / defensive holding = explosive plays
DPI = spot fouls
= 30–50 free yards
= automatic 1st downs
These: flip field position instantly and create cheap TDs. inflate variance
Sharp effect:
📈 Slight lean → OVER
⚖️ So which dominates?
In my modeling: General penalties slow games down more consistently than DPI speeds them up. DPI is high-variance (spiky). Low flags is structural (predictable).
So: Net effect = still slightly UNDER
Now match to THESE TEAMS (this is the edge)
Patriots have 5th most DPI calls and their secondary already grabby
Against a ref crew that:
calls 3rd-most DPI and 2nd-most defensive holding
Translation:
Patriots secondary = RISK
That directly helps: Seahawks passing offens Seahawks explosive plays
That hurts Patriots + spread
Seahawks
- low DPI team (30th fewest)
- less handsy
They are LESS likely to get burned by this crew
Translation:
Refs slightly favor Seattle stylistically
Historical trends from Smith
Underdogs
5–2 ATSGood for Patriots + points
Overs
5–2Small sample but aligns with DPI trend
Teams leading at half only win 34%
This is wild but mostly noise/variance — not predictive enough to bet. Ignore.
📐 Sharp Adjustment : How I'm adjusting it
When modeling: Ref effects are small: Typically: Total: ±0.5 to 1 point. Spread: ±0.25 to 0.5 points
My adjustment here:
Total:
Base lean UnderDPI pulls back up
Net ≈ neutral to slightly Under
Spread:
Slight Seattle benefit from DPI tendencies≈ 0.5 point edge Seattle
So: If your “true line” was: SEA -2.5 which mine is then Refs move it to: SEA -3
Still NOT near market -4.5
Meaning:
Does NOT erase Patriots value
Key Sharp Signals Here
Handle outweighs bets on Patriots ML
Patriots ML has more $$ than tickets. This is the classic sharp money signature — a reverse split.
Why this matters:
Public is usually heavy on favorites — Seahawks are only 40% of bets. Yet the Patriots are 61% of the money on the ML. This is exactly the kind of “smart money versus square money” divergence we're looking for.
👉 Sharp side money is on Patriots ML.
✅ 2️⃣ Handle and bets align on Seahawk favorite — but not heavily
- Seahawks -4.5 has 58% of both handle and bets.
- That means the money and tickets aren’t diverging — that’s not sharp.
In sharp-money logic:
📌 When bets and handle move together → less predictive edge
📌 When handle and bets diverge → sharp money pressure
So Seahawks -4.5 does not show a reverse line move in favor of Seattle.
✅ 3️⃣ Sharp Tilting Under on Total
- Under 45.5: 57% handle vs 55% bets
- That’s not a huge split, but the $$ is marginally heavier on the under.
Combine this with:
- Lower offensive EPA projections
- Conservative scoring profiles
- Patriot defense historically improving in big games
This confirms the analytics that the total should be lower than market, not higher.
📈 What This Confirms About the Game
⚡ True Line vs Market Consensus
📍 True analytics lean:
- Seahawks slightly better team overall
- But not by 4.5+ points
- The “true spread” range from projected efficiency is closer to SEA -1 to SEA -2.5
📍 Market currently:
- SEA -4.5
- That’s too much without sharps driving it
📍 Sharp money behavior says:
- Sharps want Patriots + points or ML
- Public wants Seahawks
That is textbook “reverse line movement” — aggregate line holds or even gets slightly less sharp as public pours money in.
What the Money Is Saying (Sharp Interpretation)
BET SIGNAL: Patriots +4.5 (or better)
- Public bets are disproportionately on Seahawks, but money is on Patriots.
- Heavy money on Patriots + points means syndicates see value.
- ML +195 backed by big money is extremely sharp indicator.
BET SIGNAL: Patriots Moneyline
- Not a huge % handle, but them leading money on ML is an even stronger indicator.
- Taking +195 on the ML vs public piling on the favorite is textbook value.
BET SIGNAL: Under 45.5
- Handle leaning toward Under confirms analytics from EPA/success rate model.
- The total isn’t just public lean — money supports it.
Reverse Line Movement is Present. A true RLM is when. Public bet % pushes a line in one direction
BUT Handle (money) holds or pushes it back.
Here’s exactly what we see today:
Public heavily favors Seahawks.
Books are not moving line significantly further in Seahawks’ favor.
Large money is supporting Patriots.
That is RLM and I LOOOOOOOOVE IT! .
Final Sharp Bet-theory Take
- Market consensus heavily favors Seahawks via public money.
- True analytics read suggests a closer game than a double-digit gap — ~1–3 points of separation.
- Reverse line movement exists if sharp books flatten Seahawk money.
- Best strategy isn’t just betting the favorite — it’s finding value around the true line vs. consensus.
NEP and the points !!!!!!!!!!!!! LFG!!!!
