Should I be Worried?

[Nolan Dalla]

I put up a lengthy analysis of the Academy Award race for BEST ACTOR this year. In case you missed it, I touted SEAN PENN as a solid bet to win his first Oscar.

I watched in horror and disbelief last night when the Screen Actor's Guild awarded the BEST ACTOR to.......JOHNNY DEPP.

When they announced that, my wife went ballistic. I was barely able to speak and rolled off the sofa laughing hysterically in shock. What on God's earth are these people voting on?

DEPP is certainly a fine actor, but that role and that movie was one of the most dreadful movie experiences of my life. There was NOTHING the least bit impressive about the performance. So, someone please educate me and tell me what I was missing from that Pirates of the Caribbean movie and Depp's SAG-worthy performance.

Is Hollyood so far strung out that they can't make reasonable judgments as to artistic merit? (Loaded question)

On a more serious note, I want to know if there's any explanation for this and hear speculation as to whether my two wagers on PENN are now on thin ice. I layed -600 to win $250 at one site and -380 to win $200 at the other site -- which were the maximum allowable wagers. The $450 isn't that big a deal, but I sure as hell don't want to go down in flames laying nearly a grand on a bet that looks like it could be in serious jeopardy.

I'd like to hear some feedback.


Nolan Dalla

 

[The Big Tease]

Nolan.....I read that Penn pissed some people off by not showing up to the Golden Globes or something like that.....most of the "experts" are touting Bill Murray in this category because I guess he gave some great speeches at some awards banquet recently, and I guess the way you win those awards is by sucking up to the Academy or getting a lifetime achievement award......I still think you are OK, and I dont think that Depp wins the biggy.....but you might want to consider getting out a little bit with Murray....Just my opinion.....g'luck


Myself, I think the safer bet is for the Peter Jackson to get best director......they had pretty decent odds at 5 Dimes....but the lines are down

 

[THE KOD]

Nolan

Sean Penn went to Iraq with his against the USA political views.

I don't think the Academy will reward that.

They would give it to Depp before Penn.


KOD

 

[djv]

When he got the Golden Globe award and did not show. I said, Self he's not getting the Oscar. Has nothing to do with Iraq. To many people agree with him we didn't need to rush there. I think he's out. And what a good way to give Murry the award. And no one will feal bad for Penn

 

[THE KOD]

Has nothing to do with Iraq. To many people agree with him we didn't need to rush there.

.........................................................................

"Sean, as you most assuredly know, recently returned from Baghdad after a three-day personal fact-finding mission. It seems that he was distrustful of the foreign-policy perspectives being offered by the various news media and international/national decision-makers. By visiting Iraq, Penn apparently sought to obtain the "ground truth" about the veracity of Iraq's claims of being WMD-free ? and to "pursue a deeper understanding of the conflict." Must be nice to have the free time and funding to sport about second guessing everyone from Great Britain to Human Rights Watch to Jon Stewart from The Daily Show. Perhaps this is the start of an exciting new industry: "matters of conscience" tourism?

Now, look: I am all about learning about strategy, policy, and the regional implications of war against Iraq. I just think that the wrong place to do that is in Baghdad. Being led about by duplicitous Iraqi authorities will not bring one to a series of satisfactory conclusions about the use and efficacy of diplomacy and military force. In visiting Iraq, was Penn allowed to visit the torture cells, where countless prisoners spent their last painful moments on earth? Was he brought to the sites where young girls were raped before their fathers as a form of political punishment and intimidation? Was he flown to the Kurdish villages, where thousands perished in Saddam's chemical attacks against his own citizens? Of course not. In truth and fact, Penn's sanitized trip was devoid of the things that he really needed to see.

Penn stated that he went to Iraq to "see Iraqi faces ? and go home with some impressions that will not let me off the hook." While Penn visited the Al-Mansour Children's Hospital and saw the smiling faces of the children within, he was not shown the faces of Iraqis contorted in death following murder at the hands of Saddam Hussein's henchmen. Talk about impressions that would never let you off the hook?

The point here is that there are better ways to become more knowledgeable about international affairs than to visit the monster's lair. As a start, I recommend reading alternative news sources. I start off every morning reading the New York Times and Washington Post to get one side of the equation, and the Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal to get the other. I end the day with USA Today and counter it with the National Review Online. And get this: It is cheaper than a ticket to Iraq!

Or perhaps you could digest documents from organizations like the United Nations, the Central Intelligence Agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International.

Or if you simply must fly around to verify, then go to London and interview both dissidents and Iraqi supporters, but do not waste time by visiting Saddam's Little Shop of Horrors. For by visiting Iraq, you come perilously close to being used as a propaganda tool by a dictator who has oppressed his people and has verifiably raped and murdered his own citizens. How much different is that from an actor visiting a 1938 Germany and declaring his opposition to war against Hitler? Or visiting a murderous Stalin or Mao and giving them a clean bill of health? At a certain point, you find yourself allied with those whose dreams of power sail down a river flowing with the blood of their victims ? victims who are more often than not their own people.

I am not denying Penn's right as a citizen to voice his opposition to a possible war. Nor am I questioning his legitimate search for answers. My point is that there is a better way to grapple with theses issues than by naively playing into a murderous dictator's hands. By doing so, you may be contributing to the oppression of a tortured people.

Speaking at the completion of his tour, Penn stated that, "if there is a war or continued sanctions against Iraq, the blood of Americans and Iraqis alike will be on our hands." No, Penn, not quite. The blood of the Iraqis already runs thick on the hands of their own leader.

If I may say so, there seems to be no one who is willing to say to Penn, "Sean ? what in the hell are you doing? Did you really think that you were going to learn anything by going there? And do you really think that was such a wise thing to do?" Allow me then, to be that person. Or if not, then please forward all scripts to the e-mail address below."

? Roger D. Carstens is an Army special-forces major assigned to Ft. Bragg, N.C. He is a member of the Council for Emerging National Security Affairs
.........................................................................

 

[djv]

Scott since were lied to so much by our press and government. The best place to get a real feal for the truth is go your self.
But after saying that you have to hope you get a chance to see the real truth not a show put on while your there. Penn didn't change anyones mind. As we know now plans for Iraq were in the works before 9/11. So hes no worse then the BS we get from DC. But he should have understood he would be come a target.

 

[Master Capper]

I really dont see how Penn going to Iraq will have any influesnce on the award, besides didn't Depp rip the bush administration and has since moved to France to live? I read your analysis Nolan and I think it was a excellent write-up.

 

[Hoops]

I didn't think Penn's performance was anything special. Very overrated IMO. He's done much better work before.

I thought Depp was excellent in POTC. He made an incredibly unique character that I doubt many actors could have pulled off.

Murray would still be my choice though. My favorite acting peformance and movie of last year.

 

[THE KOD]

So hes no worse then the BS we get from DC. But he should have understood he would be come a target.

.............................................................................

djv

If you don't think the Academy will be influenced by Sean Penn
the traitor going to Iraq , then you are living in a dream world.
The academy is full of people with political concerns over who
gets their stupid awards.

No way in hell Sean Penn gets a Oscar.

George W just did the clean up work his daddy left behind.
So whats wrong with that ?

KOD

 

[gardenweasel]

i liked his work

i liked his work

earlier in his career much better....the turn he did as the handicapped guy was an embarrassment,imo...

haven`t seen mystic river...

 

[djv]

Scott I only am saying he got he GG award. No one gave a chit about Iraq in gieving him that award. And he's not a traitor. He did what ever American has the right to do say whats on your mind. Im not saying he was right. But he did nothing wrong. If he had he would be in jail and the Bush gang would have made abig deal out of it. I believe Murry was going to win anyway.

 

[THE KOD]

I believe Murry was going to win anyway.

...................................................

djv

I believe Bill Murray will win also. But thats alot differant than
saying Penn don't have a chance in hell of winning. Alot of
politics at the Academy was all I was saying.

If you don't think Penn's politics were discussed amongst the Academy, I think you would be naive.

Freedom of speech is one thing. Consorting with the enemy is another. My opinion is that he is a traitor no better than Jane Fonda. Penn is one crazy bastid though so I do respect that much about him. I guess I just don't agree with his politics.

KOD


PS - Not sure how the Academy goes bout voting. I will try to find something on the process. Is it a sealed vote ? not sure really

 

[THE KOD]

1. Voting on all achievements shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.

3. Individual reminder lists from which the nominations are voted shall refer only to the motion picture in which the achievement was made, and not to any individual responsible, except in the case of nominations for acting which name both the individual and the one picture wherein the achievement occurred.

4. Voting for nominations and awards shall be by secret ballot. Printed forms and ballots shall be supplied by the Academy and shall be returned unsigned. Ballots shall be opened and counted by a firm of certified public accountants designated by the Academy president.

5. In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the preferential or weighted average system. Votes for achievements in pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the nominations balloting. Tabulation of final ballots shall be according to the plurality system. No "write-in" votes shall be counted on the final ballot.

6. Not more than five nominations shall be made for each award. In all cases nominations shall be announced and placed on the final ballot in alphabetical order.

8. In the event that an achievement voted an award was done in collaboration, each of the collaborators shall receive an award trophy (unless the number of awards is specifically limited by a category's special rules). In the event of a tie for first place in the final balloting, awards shall be given for both achievements.

9. The Board of Governors shall provide for such screenings or special meetings as may be desirable to insure a full and fair consideration of the merits of all eligible achievements.

................................................................................

djv

Look at #9. If they provide screenings then seems like the Academy members would have plenty of time to mingle and talk
about everyone.

 

[THE KOD]

CHARLIZE THERON, REN?E ZELLWEGER, WILL SMITH and TOM CRUISE may soon be basking at either the ultra-private Exclusive resort or the Auberge du Soleil resort. A $4,000 getaway is just one of the tidbits in this year's Oscar Gift Basket for presenters.

Stars can also kick back in front of the $6,000 state-of-the-art Samsung high definition TV set with one-year Voom programmming subscription. Or if it's the nightlife they crave, the two-night penthouse package at Caesar's Palace -- including four tickets to see CELINE DION and $9,000 in spending money at the hotel -- should do the trick.

How about an exclusive dinner party, courtesy of the $1,500 Morton Steakhouse certificate? And to add to the sweet smell of success, JEAN PATOU of Paris is pitching in with "En Joy" parfum, bottled in Baccarat and personalized with each nominee's name.

In all, the A-list stars will walk away with an estimated $100,000 worth of goodies. That amount makes this year's gift bag the most luxurious in Oscar history!

 

[djv]

SA, That number 9 is darn intersting. Makes you wonder how much action behind the doors does go on.

 

[IX_Bender]

I, too, thought Depp was the only worthwhile thing in POTC. Without him, the movie could not stand up on two legs.

Could it be the year for Penn, possibly. That particular category is one Ive stayed away from. Still remember dropping six dollars when they announced Brody from Pianist over Lewis in GONY.

 

[Pujo21]

No State of Grace with Penn..i think he's the material girl ! LOL

No State of Grace with Penn..i think he's the material girl ! LOL

I think the Academy Voting is by secret ballot and tabulated with an accounting firm.....

i'm not sure they even have discussions amongst each other about who gets awards.. maybe they do.???????

 

[RexBudler]

I didnt see the movie but Im sure it couldnt have been better than his performance in Fast Times at Ridgemont High.......his quote " Hey bud...let party " will probably be remembered more than anything else he has ever said

gotta love Jeff Spiccolli

 

[Terryray]

just a bit worried

just a bit worried

Depp's movie was very popular, got good reviews, and he carried it. It surprised folks and made a lot of money too. He's overdue for an Oscar.



Those are the reason's he'd win it. How good you think performance is means nothing. How do the avg voting member thinks of it is what counts--but that's only part of it. Frequently the actor's history, "due" factor, popularity, money made, Oscar advertising budget (see Miramax) and other ancillary items trump all (Al Pacino deserve it for "Scent of Woman" or Henry Fonda for "On Golden Pond"?)


"Artistic Merit" in an Oscar award? That's like looking for love in a whorehouse!




on to handicapping...

6 out of 9 SAG Best Actor winners have then gone on to win Best Actor at the Oscars:

94-Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump
95-Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
96-Geoffrey Rush, Shine
97-Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets
98-Robert Benigni, Life is Beautiful
99-Kevin Spacy, American Beauty



But guys in comedies rarely win Best Actor. I think Depp and Murray will compete for the votes members are willing to cast for actors in "comedies" and therefore default Penn as winner.


Murray won Golden Globe. No actor winning this has gone on to win the Oscar since '97.


BUT, Robbins will probably win for best supporting actor and no movie swept both actor and best supporting without also winning Best Pic and Best Director and "Mystic River" isn't the juggernault for that kinda huge sweep. But who knows?


maybe Murray will win. He's "due" and it was a fine performance, and not exactly a comedy...


Penn -125 at thegreek now
Murray +200

 

[IX_Bender]

Nice writeup and info terryray

Notice how in the last few years the trend has reversed with the SAG not winning. Nothing Id hang my hat on, but noteworthy. Good sign for you Nolan.

BTW - Benigni's win was laughable IMO.