Six Nations International Rugby

[crookycymru]

UPDATE

Please note that Paddy Power have now made the above line Wales +5.....that was why it was so important to get on early. However good news for North Americans, Sports Interaction who without a doubt have copied Paddy Powers lines (as PaddyPower are the only bookmaker to have released lines thus far, unless SI have their own rugby compilers :nono: ) still have Wales at +5.5, which is unlikely to last if you guys decide to lump on at SI

Paddy Power have also cut Italy from +53 to +49, but SI still have Italy at +53.5.......it does seem a big start given Englands team this weekend, but the Italians task is not helped by Diego Dominguez' absence. I am still thinking over this one. :shrug:

May well add another unit to that Wales line by the weekend, but now looking forward to the UK books releasing their lines probably tomorrow.

 

[cameroncrazie]

I saw that Wales at SIA this morning crooky. I was pleasantly surprised by it based on your evaluation of the game. I haven't seen any lines yet from 365 or Olympic. Maybe they will be even better. You never know. Anyway, I will be on the lookout for any additional plays and as always good luck. Keep the winners coming.

 

[kickserv]

Thanks for update Gareth

 

[british bulldog]

CAMERONCRAZIE

I wouldn't worry to much about looking around for lines. +5.5 is the same as +6. As you are aware the half point ensure's there are no ties. Here in the UK by taking +6 a tie is possible, but once again unlike North American books where yop would get a push, here the bet would be a loser because prices are offered for a draw.

Don't wait for Bet365, they will take the price from their UK office and I can tell you that it will not be any higher than +5, and if I know bet365, it is more likely to be +4. They are not one from stepping to far out of line with other books.

This is just my opinion, but I feel what Crooky is saying is take the handicap mark because the smart money has shifted the line already and is likely to move again.

 

[cameroncrazie]

Your reasoning makes sense british bulldog. The idea of betting on a tie is a foreign one to me that does make a 1/2 point difference all the more important. I will jump on it before it changes. Thanks.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

crooky:

Sherkin the Goat shall lead the Welshmen out...hopefully to victory.

Thx and GL.

 

[crookycymru]

Scotland 30-22 Wales
Ireland 15-12 France
England 40-5 Italy

Again a poor weekend, with Wales never looking like getting within six points. I maintained all week, that the only way this bet would lose if Wales failed to win the battle in the forwards. That is exactly what happened, and to be 17-3 down after 20 minutes meant we were always playing catch up. Two injury time tries flattered Wales, and meant we were only three points outside the handicap. However, well done to Paddy Power on laying a line that completely sucked me in....I expect their top brass will be out in Dublin this weekend with a few dollars in their pockets after this win.

However, there is one very big positive from this weekend. Ireland win again to leave the outright bets in a very healthy position. Mentally this game was huge for the Irish. Their defence was superb, and to withstand that French pressure for such long periods is a credit to how strong they are at present. If they gain a expected victory over Wales next week, then the match between England and Ireland will leave us on the verge of a thirty point profit, and will go a long way to my target of reaching $10,000 profit by the end of the World Cup. If they lose to England, then that figure will be a mile away. However, I am quietly confident which leaves me making a early play on that game.

2 Point Win Ireland (+5) vs England at 10/11 with PaddyPower

 

[crookycymru]

Updated Six Nations Standings

Team P W D L F A Diff PTS
England 3 3 0 0 91 31 60 6
Ireland 3 3 0 0 88 31 57 6
France 3 1 0 2 67 43 24 2
Italy 3 1 0 2 48 99 -51 2
Scotland 3 1 0 2 39 96 -57 2
Wales 3 0 0 3 53 86 -33 0

 

[crookycymru]

Updated Six Nations Odds

England 2 - 5

Ireland 7 - 4



Ireland are also 7/4 to get the Grand Slam. Should the Irish beat Wales next week, then it means there will be a opportunity for anybody to hedge their bets for the England game, ensuring a certain profit.

 

[crookycymru]

Six Nations returns this weekend with three games.

Check back through the week for picks.

 

[crookycymru]

Here is the first of this weeks plays on the Six Nations. More may follow as the books slowly start releasing their lines.


England vs Scotland (16:00 pm GMT, Twickenham, London, England)

England return to 'fortress' Twickenham after their unconvincing defeat of the Italians. At one point it looked like they could score a hundred points, but the Italians knuckled down, and although the game was already lost, they were the better team for large parts of the game. The Scots, fresh from their stuffing of the Welsh, travel to Twickenham-a ground where they have not won since 1983.
England today named a team that has prompted me to bet this line early. Five key players return, namely one Martin Johnson, and the line up has a very different look than the one that started against Italy. It is a credit to the standard of English rugby at the moment, that victories over France, Wales and Italy have been marred with poor performances. True that had England been at their best, then the results may have been a lot more clear cut. However, they are still undefeated, and should travel to Dublin after this victory with a 'game of the season' clash against Ireland.
Scotland can look to nobody except their passion and pride to defeat the English. This alone is not enough to win at the top end of international rugby, and they should leave Twickenham on Saturday on the back of a heavy defeat. They have one class forward in flanker Simon Taylor, and Scott Murray will have to rediscover some form if he is going to compete with the English front five. Man to man Scotland are way behind their English counter parts, and this will tell on the weekend.
True, that England will probably take a lot of their players off during the second half, in preparation for that epic in Dublin, but you then have the likes of Dan Luger, Joe Worsley and Danny Grewcock to torment the Scots (players pushing for selction themselves). The spread could well be beyond doubt by the time these guys take the field, and it is then on to Dublin where hopefully their grand slam bid will be thwarted again by the mighty Irish.

2 Points England (-29) at 10/11 with Paddy Power

 

[hoss]

Agreed Gareth!!

I'm playing all 3 games this weekend (+ actually backing 2 favourites for a change!!)

3pts France (- 21) 10/11 VC, Blue Sq etc - Italy look a much tighter outfit this year + have cut out a lot of the stupid penalties they used to give away, but in my opinion France are the best equiped side to spread the ball around enough to rack up the points needed to cover.

2pts England (-29) P.Power, Wilsonsports -Crooky's done the write up here! + I can't disagree, Scotland are pants!

2pts Wales (+14) 10/11 Stan James, Sp Odds - Ireland are bound to be a bit nervy + looking ahead to their biggest game for years v England - relying on a bit of the Welsh pride at home (to me, they are a totally different side in Cardiff) + trust they'll keep it tight. Sure, Ireland look the business this year, but getting a 2 try start at home looks a bit of an insult.

hoss!

 

[crookycymru]

Hoss,

I like your plays.

A few notes on the Wales game.....they have named easily their best line up this season to face the Irish. Ben Evans, Steve Williams, and Gavin Thomas have quite rightly been dropped. We have now brought in a genuine ball carrier in Colin Charvis, while Gareth Llewellyn with all his experience should have been there from the start all season. Johnathan Humphreys is back at hooker, and while I do not rate him, he will not tolerate the lack of passion shown by the pack, as against Scotland and Italy. Martyn Madden starts on the bench, and no doubt look out for his bulldozing runs in the 2nd half. I would like to have seen Iestyn Harris at 10, as he turned the game around in ten minutes when he came on against the Scots. Stephen Jones however, is a solid player who will never let you down.

It would be typical of a Welsh team to either beat the Irish today, or get a result out in Paris next week. Seen it done before, and it will happen again. I am kind of hoping the resurgence happens in Paris as a Welsh win today will cost me a fortune, but you can me guaranteed that by 2pm today, I will be at the stadium, and that money will be the last thing on my mind.

COME ON WALES!!!!

 

[crookycymru]

After a shocking 0-3 weekend on the Super 12, it was nice to hit the big bet of the weekend yesterday with England (-29) creeping home by two points.

Some late team news has prompted me to make a play on todays action.

Italy vs France (14:00 GMT, Stadio Flaminio, Rome, Italy)

The Italians today were hit by the withdrawal of their star player in fly half Diego Dominguez. He has been replaced by Ramiro Pez, who is not the world class kicker that Dominguez is, and neither has he the ability to control the game from ten, as Dominguez has done from fly half when he has played this term.
As a team I have tipped up to win the World Cup at the end of the year, I have to be disappointed with the French defence of their title this year. It was always going to be tough with visits to Dublin and Twickenham, but they will be looking to the other three games, to win in style. With Scotland already in the bag, they will be looking to rack up the points agaist Italy (today) and Wales (next week). Thomas Castaignede returns today, and his pace should cause the Italians all sorts of problems. The back row trio of Betsen, Magne and Harinordoquy, is probably the best in the world. Up front the Italians should have no match for the French, and if they can get thier pacey backs running, then the Italians could be in for a long afternoon.
Slight concern is that the French have not beat the Italians in style over the last few seasons, but are taken to cover today with Bet Direct.

1 Point Win France (-21) at 9/10 with BetDirect

 

[crookycymru]

Wales 24-25 Ireland
England 40-9 Scotland
Italy 27-France 53

After the disappointing weekend in the Super 12, it was great to have a 2-0 weekend in the Six Nations, hitting the two point play along the way.

Firstly, congratulations to Hoss on a 3-0 weekend. Excellent capping as per usual.

The Wales match was a superb test match. For anybody who has not watched a rugby match, then you should get a tape of this game to see how exciting it is. A 80,000 crowd on a Saturday afternoon in Cardiff is bettered by little else, and the match was a credit to rugby. OK, not the highest standards in the world, but you had a country in Wales, who has the whole Welsh nation on their backs against a Irish team, sweating on a possible first grand slam, so the standards were never going to be sky high. However, it was a thrilling finish, and bar a few dubious referee decisions, Wales would have won.

I said yesterday that it would be typical of Wales to either beat the Irish, or France next week. I genuinely believe they have a decent chance in Paris, and with the books sure to give Wales a big start in Paris, then there may be a possible play next weekend.

England won as expected, and creeped past our handicap of twenty nine points, while the French today looked like scoring a ton of points, before Italy got their acts together and really had France under the cosh in that 2nd half. Again the set handicap of twenty one points was nver really in doubt. There is few better things to watch than the French playing rugby at their best, and that is what we got in the first 40 minutes. Ball handling skills to be in awe of!

It is now on to next week. I am on the verge of a massive pick up if Ireland beat the English. Anybody who backed Ireland, can now lay off, to secure a profit.

Back through the week, with the final picks from the Six Nations of 2003, and next week, I will have a updated rugby record of my postings on this site.

Good Luck

 

[crookycymru]

Updated Six Nations Standings :

Team P W D L F A Diff PTS
England 4 4 0 0 131 40 91 8
Ireland 4 4 0 0 113 55 58 8
France 4 2 0 2 120 70 50 4
Italy 4 1 0 3 75 152 -77 2
Scotland 4 1 0 3 48 136 -88 2
Wales 4 0 0 4 77 111 -34 0

 

[crookycymru]

Updated Six Nations Odds

England 2 - 5

Ireland 7 - 4

 

[kickserv]

well done Gareth

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Thanx guys....well done.

 

[crookycymru]

Thanks for the comments!

Forgot to mention it was my birthday today, so that France bet was sure to be a winner right??? :shrug:

Also filled my boots on Bradford (-28) today in the rugby league, so a great end to the weekend. Do not post rugby league on Madjacks, probably as there would be little interest.

Pawaqatsi, I am looking forward to your Aussie rules picks. Lets have some winners so I can build up the kitty ready for the Superbowl party next year!!