slow-down Sunday

[Stag]

YTD: 84-46-13......+72.15 units

crazy week for me. should have been down much more for the week, but hit some big plays when needed. My units were also too large on some chalk pays.
I'm gonna try to get back to solid capping (finding value, smaller plays, less games). This is only my 3rd year of NHL capping, and it's obvious I still have lots to learn.
By the way, someone asked a few days ago how much I wagered per unit. This season, it is 100 bucks per unit. I feel comfortable at that mark, but had lots of nailbiting this past week.....very uncomfortable. Hence, I'm lowering my number of units.

3 units
Buffalo +150

That's all folks

 

[saint]

Stag-

Have you improved in each of your 3 years of capping...do you think you've gotten better with time and experience? This is my first year capping NHL so I was just curious. Thanks for all of your help!

saint

 

[Stag]

Saint....definitely have improved. I've always had winning seasons, but my money management has improved over time. Last week, I regressed a little because I liked a ton of games and ended up forcing too many large plays. Good thing I caught myself last night.
One thing I have noticed this year and will learn from: Has anybody noticed that low totals of 4.5 always seem to go OVER?! I think I am like 0-8 this year on taking UNDER 4.5 goals!! That's one thing I will try to stay away from now. Live and learn!

 

[jatski]

4 1/2 no unders

4 1/2 no unders

Stag:

I agree ... every under 4' I've played this year has gone over as well. I swore off them a couple weeks ago. I've also lost almost every over 6 game I've played.

jatski

 

[saint]

Agree, most 4.5 have gone over except the one in last nights Anaheim game...I parlayed Anaheim ML and the over 4.5...only put 20 on it and it payed out like 110. Go figure! End score 3-1.
Also have noticed the recent trend of Atlanta games going under 6.

 

[jatski]

P.S. ...

P.S. ...

Like the Sabres today also.

jats

 

[ZigZag]

The Under was just dominating the NHL early on in the season. Just about every game was set at 5.5 and it was under city.

You looked up and down the teams and there were so many with huge Under records. Now you look at the O/U and most teams are very close to even.

This under trend really changed when they started dropping the 4.5 lines on us. Most of the 4.5 totals have juice on the over so you think wow an Under trend team and I don't have to pay any juice. I just pull my hair out with these lines. I can't force myself to take the over, but Under 4.5 is just to damn low. The killer on 4.5 is the 2-2 game that goes to OT. An extra 5 min for a goal.

I am really watching the way the lines come out now. Whenever I see 4.5 I just feel like they are trying to balance out the O/U for teams. I have been staying away lately.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ZigZag, totally agree with your post....

most books are lowering the lines to about 4.5

I'm staying away....


:nono:

 

[Stag]

YTD: 85-46-13.....+76.65 units

 

[Terryray]

4.5 closing lines this year have gone 20-21. Most under 4.5 are dog bets, so you'd be ahead if you took them all.

Anaheim 0-2 u4.5 at home, 4-1 away.
Tampa bay 2-1 at home, 1-5 away.
Pitt is 1-1 at home, 3-0 away.

Interesting. Gotta study this chart in more detail.
these stats are thru 1/14/02

 

[Terryray]

But with more 4.5 lines being posted, any trend I noted above (and 4-1 ain't much of a trend!) might change. But I have the feeling that scoring overall has lowered too. Gotta check that.

Nice pic on Buff Stag!