Small Schools

Musca

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Mar 3, 2005
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Interesting lines. Conference play is starting in most cases and this is where everything changes... teams that are 0-4 still have a chance to make the playoffs because they could still win their conference. Lines are tighter is some places and I do not have totals up... yet.

Ohio -4.5: I posted this already under my early play. Really think EIU is just being given too much credit.

Indiana State -4: Indiana State playing very good ball with the upset of Ball State. They have played 3 games including 2 vs FBS and have NO turnovers. Liberty defense is being hyped as a top 10 pass defense but they have not played any real offensive juggernauts. Norfolk State is not good offensively and Bryant was ranked because of their defense. I believe Mike Perish and the Sycamores get the job done vs the Fighting Turner Gills.

Garner Webb +12: Citadel has played a tough schedule but still should not be laying DD here. Gardner Webb is playing their 3rd triple option team of the season so they are not unfamiliar with what Citadel is bringing. Gardner looked great last week vs Wofford and maybe this GW offense is waking up... I am not going to call for the outright upset here but it is a real possibility.

Western Carolina+6.5: This line opened at 7.5 and is moving: Furman offense has scored 14 points the last 2 games.. both losses. The problem is their defense is playing great but they are not forcing turnovers. WCU is playing decent ball and has the defense to win this game. I had this line has Furman -2 but even that line was ??? because Furman offense is bad.

Mercer -2 : Playing against the VMI defense here. This is going to be a shootout. Both teams get up and down the field but Mercer defense is better and they will win this one. 55 to 41

San Diego -9: Marist is bad. Their defense is not great, their offense is not great, their special teams are not great. The Torreros are 9-0 vs Marist and I believe after that HUGE win last week by USD over Princeton that they will travel to the east coast and take care of business. I see a final of 33-9.

William and Mary vs Stony Brook: Play this under 36 if we get a total. I also think The tribe handles SB but I do not want to lay DD on homecoming. SB is going to move away from the 2 QB system and Bedell is going to be back tomorrow (though I think he will still be limited). I expect Tribe are going to win 22 to 9

Montana State -20: North Dakota offense is bad. their defense is good. In the 2nd half of the game vs SB the UND offense had an amazing 11 yards... They still won. However, they are now playing one of the best offenses in the Big Sky and maybe FCS. I expect the Bobcats to score 35 at least.... Can UND score enough to stay in that? NO

SEMO+7
Illinois State -43
Western Illinois +12 and Under 48
Grambling State +160

Totals:
I do not have posted numbers yet but I wanted to throw these out
Lehigh over 68
Fordham over 65
Norfolk State under 46
Furman Under 36


If I get actual posted numbers then I will do write ups on the totals.

NBL

M
 
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Musca

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Mar 3, 2005
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Adding

Adding

2 Friday Night Half Times:

New Mexico +6 Medium
Old DOminion -3 +105; Big Play- I like this one A LOT.
 

Musca

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One More

One More

Does not look like I am going to get totals for tomorrow. C'est la vie.

One play that just keeps bugging me that I want to make but the numbers say not to..


Lamar +7.5 and Moneyline +230: Lamar has been feasting on the small schools and in a big way. I believe this is going to be a very high scoring game and I believe the pass offense of Lamar is going to be able to keep them in this game. I believe SHSU is good but they are struggling and with the young QB Johnson... he just has not settled in yet. I think we see a big game. 55-54

Moneylines:
Western Carolina +160
Lamar +230
Gardner Webb +260
Western Illinois +320
SEMO +210
Houston Baptist +1350

NBL

M
 

Musca

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hopefully we see some totals

hopefully we see some totals

I have some games highlighted and hopefully I get a total or two...
 

Musca

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Mar 3, 2005
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Last Group

Last Group

UC Davis +17: They get their all conference RB back (for the first time this year). The Stud RB for EWU Forte is ??? and will not start. But truthfully we do not really know what UC Davis is.. they lost to Stanford and Colorado State but they are physical. They run a pro set style and runs down hill. I believe the emotion of last weeks win by EWU is going to cost them a little here. The game was not just physically but emotionally draining. They came back from 2 td's down and scored and went for 2 with 27 seconds left to win the came 52-51. EWU will score but UC Davis... I believe can score enough to keep it close.

41-31 or something like that.

NBL

M
 

Musca

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Mar 3, 2005
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Well Made money again

Well Made money again

8-7 ATS as they never hung totals on todays games. I think that is a little better for me because seems that a couple of games I was off on... score wise.

I am 37-23 ATS... Then went 3-7 on the moneyline dogs as well. So, pretty happy with the day. Lost my small plays Lamar, UC davis and hit the bigger plays.

Gardner Webb took the lead 14-13 in the 3rd and then did not score again. Citadel pinned their ears back and just sold out. Pretty solid.

Furman and Towson are automatic go against when they are laying points right now. Wow. North Dakota covered the game vs Montana State thanks to a fumble return for a TD. I think Montana will be favored by 17 and honestly doubt UND scores.

Marist game was insane. They score 13 pts in first half.. they had not scored more than 7 in a game all season. The Marist vs San Diego is turning into a pretty fun rivalry... Last 5 games have been separated by a td or less but USD has won 10 straight vs Marist.

Stony Brook vs Bill and Mary- If the Tribe did not throw an INT on the opening drive in SB endzone I think this would have been completely different. Anyway... Maybe SB defense is for real... Maybe.

Jacksonville will house Drake this week. I think we see some upsets as we really start getting some nice matchups in conference play.

Lehigh vs Monmouth- The game had 4 or 5 missed FG's. Insane.

The books are over valuing James Madison also. The coach is a gambler who does not punt much and they just do not kick. I just do not understand the coaching in that game today. No way JMU should have lost that game.

See you all next week. Take care.

NBL

M
 
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