Smoke'em Nuggets style

[Happy Hippo]

43-37-2 overall
Spreads: 28-25-1
O/Us: 15-12-2
5-3-1 last night


ok - went all right last night, but the hippo is still not as happy as the hippo should be... let's try again tonight


here's for starters - back later...


1) Nuggets +3.5 win and Nuggets ML win

The Spurs do not play well in b-b games. They are 4-9 ATS and 57% of their losses have come on no rest (they are 5-8 SU). They have not beaten a team with a winning record on a b-b yet this year. All except one of their 5 losses came to teams with winning records. In addition to the b-b, the Spurs also have to deal with the high altitude. The Spurs are 6-10 ATS away vs teams with winning records. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS on the road when favored to win by 1 - 2.5 points.

The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the powerful SW division. They are 7-2 ATS in their last 9. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS when favored to lose by 1 - 2.5 points at home. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 played on 3 or more days rest. Camby (the Nugs captain) was in the local newspaper today talking about how the Nuggets get more pumped up against better competition - they have beaten all of the top nine teams (according to win percentage) except for the Nets & the Spurs on their home floor this year. The Nuggets closed out their season last year at this time going 9-0 SU on their home floor, including beating the Spurs. The Nuggets have a better fg%, better 3 pt %, better free throw percentage, and they have been rebounding the ball better in their last 10 games. The Nuggets are second in the league at forcing turnovers and should get extra fast break points. The Nuggets are 10-6 ATS at home vs teams with winning records.

INJURIES: Patterson (flu), Camby (knee) and Martin (knee) are probable to play. Najera (knee) is doubtful. Boykins & Nene are out.

Ginobili is probable, but Pop said that he might start resting his stars on b-b games if they start to struggle, so I wouldn?t be surprised to see Gino?s minutes cut down.

:weed: Nuggets smoke'em :weed:

 

[Happy Hippo]

showdown in D-town

showdown in D-town

2) Pistons -6 win

I wrote a lot in my post yesterday about how Miami is struggling on the road and trying to pull together as a team. Shaq & Wade are probable but they are both a little banged up. The Pistons have been sitting around waiting for the Heat to arrive and this is the Heat's 4th game in 5 nights and they are on a b-b. The Pistons have been struggling a little recently also, but not at home where they have won 15 in a row by an avg of 9.9 ppg.

The Pistons will get pumped to play the Heat, but can the Heat muster enough energy and emotion at the end of the trip to cover the spread? I'll bet against it.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

 

[Happy Hippo]

DEFENSE

DEFENSE

Let's play some D tonight in D town

3) HEAT/PISTONS UNDER 196 win

 

[Happy Hippo]

Let's try this again, too -

4) BUCKS/SONICS OVER 211 win
The Sonics only managed to score 14 points against the Kings in the fourth quarter last night, and I'm counting on that not happening again...

Bucks are 13th worst defensive team in the league
Bucks are 6-0 O/U last 6 vs western conf opponents
Bucks are 4-1 O/U following an ATS win
Bucks are 5-2 O/U last 7 games as underdog
Bucks are 23rd in the league in fg% allowed

Sonics are 21-7-1 O/U in their last 29 as the favorite
Sonics are 20-9 O/U in their last 29 after an ATS win
Sonics are 10-4 O/U at home vs eastern conf opponents
Sonics have the second best offense in the league
Sonics have the worst defense in the league
Sonics are 29th in the league in fg% allowed
Sonics are 3rd in pointers made

 

[Happy Hippo]

adding:

5 & 6) SIXERS-HAWKS OVER 204 win

BULLS-PACERS UNDER 188 win
Pacers 0-5 O/U last 5 division opp games
Pacers 7-18 O/U last 25 after allowing opp more than 100 points
Pacers 4-7 O/U following SU loss

Bulls 3-9-2 O/U vs division opponents
Bulls 1-4 O/U last 5 played
Bulls 2-5 O/U last 7 played on 2 days rest

Pacers 3rd best home defensive team
Bulls are 17th best defensive road team and #1 in the league at fg% allowed
Pacers are 22nd in the league in offense at home

smaller plays

7 & 8) KINGS-LAKERS OVER 202 loss
SPURS-NUGGETS UNDER 193 loss

ok - i am getting a better feel for this new system and seems these 2 games were too close to the devation

my new O/U "calculator" hit 60% yesterday on all games calculated (2-1-1 on posted plays) - let's see if it can hit again...

 

[Happy Hippo]

midwest b-ball

midwest b-ball

9) BULLS +5 loss
The Bulls are statistically better than the Pacers - they shoot a better field goal percentage, better free throw percentage, they are better at rebounding and their bench is statistically more productive. The only area they are not better at is ball handling & defense, but they are still a very good defensive team (#1 in the league in fg% defense). Both of these teams have problems turning the ball over, but the Bulls are more of a fast-break team and scores more points off of turnovers. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 played on 2 days rest. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs teams with winning records. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games in Indianapolis, which is impressive because Conseco Fieldhouse is traditionally a tough place to play. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Indiana.

The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs teams with SU losing records. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games as the favorite. They are 6-9 SU & ATS on no rest. There is a slight chance that Jermaine O?Neal might play tonight, but if he does, I think this will favor the Bulls even more because the Pacers will need to adjust to him back in the lineup.

INJURIES:
Hinrich is probable (elbow), Duhon is questionable (back pain)

Tinsley is questionable (sinus), O?Neal is questionable (groin)

 

[Happy Hippo]

10) Bucks +3 loss

Seattle is the worst team in the league at covering spreads. This is because if you want to cover a spread, especially in close games, you have to play defense and the Sonics just don?t know how. They allow 104.5 ppg at home, which is more than any team (including themselves) gives up on the road. This is why they have a paltry 16-17 SU home record and are 13-18-2 ATS at home. The Sonics are the third worst team in the league in b-b games, with a 4-9 SU record and losing by an average of 9 ppg. The Sonics are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after an ATS win. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on no rest. They are 4-10 ATS when their opponents scores 100 points or more in their previous game.


The Bucks have been playing well on the road, with a 19-12-2 ATS record and are 14-19 SU (doesn?t sound great, but only the Pistons, Nets & Heat have better road records in the eastern conf). The Bucks have been playing well recently and are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games following a win. They are 3-0 in their last 3 road games as an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 on 1 day rest. The Bucks are 11-5 ATS on the road vs teams with losing records.


Last 5 games:
Bucks 97.0 ppg
Bucks allowed 91.6 ppg
Sonics 109.0 ppg
Sonics allowed 108.2 ppg

INJURIES:
Mo Williams, questionable (sprained ankle)
Earl Watson, doubtful (hit in throat in practice) and Nick Collison, out (foot)

 

[Pkorkis]

just getting into this stuff, sport nut but don't know much about capping so I'm kind of learning off of you guys right now. i'm following your bets tonight hippo, GL man! (I hope I don't curse you I was TERRIBLE last night)

-----------------------------------
1)Spurs(SanAntonio)
Nuggets(Denver) 03/22/06 (22:40 ET)
Nuggets(Denver) +115
Biggest Bet

-----------------------------------
2)Parlay (4 Teams)
Bucks(Milwaukee)
Sonics(Seattle) 03/22/06 (22:10 ET)
Bucks(Milwaukee) +125

Heat(Miami)
Pistons(Detroit) 03/22/06 (20:10 ET)
Pistons(Detroit) -330

Kings(Sacramento)
Lakers(LA) 03/22/06 (22:40 ET)
Lakers(LA) -155

Knicks(NewYork)
Magic(Orlando) 03/22/06 (19:10 ET)
Magic(Orlando) -280

-----------------------------------
3) Parlay (3 Teams)
Bucks(Milwaukee)
Sonics(Seattle) 03/22/06 (22:10 ET)
Bucks(Milwaukee) +125

Heat(Miami)
Pistons(Detroit) 03/22/06 (20:10 ET)
Pistons(Detroit) -330

Knicks(NewYork)
Magic(Orlando) 03/22/06 (19:10 ET)
Magic(Orlando) -280

-----------------------------------
4)Parlay (2 Teams) Heat(Miami)
Pistons(Detroit) 03/22/06 (20:10 ET)
Pistons(Detroit) -330

Knicks(NewYork)
Magic(Orlando) 03/22/06 (19:10 ET)
Magic(Orlando) -280

-----------------------------------
5) Heat(Miami)
Pistons(Detroit) 03/22/06 (20:10 ET)
Pistons(Detroit) -7

-----------------------------------
6) Bulls(Chicago)
Pacers(Indiana) 03/22/06 (19:10 ET)
Bulls(Chicago) +175

-----------------------------------
7)Bucks(Milwaukee)
Sonics(Seattle) 03/22/06 (22:10 ET)
Over 210

 

[Pkorkis]

by the way let me know if you notice me doing something stupid (like all my parlays...i can't help it they're fun)

 

[DeadPrez]

by the way let me know if you notice me doing something stupid (like all my parlays...i can't help it they're fun)

parlays are a book's best friend
you need to win every game to win the money
they only need to win one

 

[Pkorkis]

yeah, most of those parlays are really small bets just for fun...i know its stupid but I can hope huh? but yeah, i need to stop doing that and making real bets, what do you think about the others?

 

[Happy Hippo]

Pkorkis--

i am by no means the resident expert, but i will let you know what i think...

first of all, good luck - you will need it - sports betting is fun because you can win a lot of money but no matter how well you cap the games, there is alway luck involved, which is why a 50-60% winning percentage is good.

i don't think you will ever win consistently playing parlays, both from experience & from all that i've read. like DeadPrez pointed out above, you have to win all your bets and they only have to win one - that gives them better odds than you:nono:. It is better that you placed most of your parlays on the moneyline - that gives you better odds... i still play parlays every once in awhile, cause like you said - it is REALLY fun and when you put down 20 and win 550 it is the best investment. I bet parlays for my first year+ of betting, but i found that over time, for every parlay that i placed and won, i would lose more on $$ in parlays & other straight bets lost. so now i place a parlay about once a week... and usually don't win...

the bottom line is that in the long run it is more fun and better for your bank to win more bets than to win that one big parlay every week... personally, I like to place LOTS of bets every night, mostly the same amount on each play (but there are usually 1 or 2 each night i really like and double up on) so that i have the best chance of winning over 50%. Betting on lots of games gives you a better chance against that thing called LUCK - plus I am a big NBA fan and watch all the games.

hope that helps and good luck to you

 

[Happy Hippo]

also, moneyline bets are fun, but in cases such as the bulls - playing on the road against a good team, I would bet on the points +5 (bigger bet) and then if you really like the team to win, put a smaller bet on the ML

 

[Pkorkis]

Yeah that def. helps hippo. I know i need to start getting away from parlays and just work consistent ML's. As for the bulls, that was a small bet b/c I just don't like the Pacers as of late. Question though, you think I should put a bet on the +5 and a little less on the ML?
i.e.
$100 on +5
$50 on ML?
Something like that? What kind of % less should I put on the ML. I know a lot of this is math & % (like poker) to make smart bets. But I have yet to sit down and try to figure it all out so let me know if there's a system you guys follow.
THANKS!!
-Phil

 

[Happy Hippo]

hey phil -

yeah - something like that... i don't want to tell you exactly what to do with your $$ - it all depends on how much the money line is worth (if it is big like +400 or something bigger then a smaller bet usually) and how much I'm feeling the game - for instance, tonight i have no ML bets - last night I took the Hornets ML & Wolves ML because I thought they really would win... but i usually don't make ML bets at all - probably only 3-4 times a week, so for what percentage of your money to put on them... that's up to you - after awhile you will get more feel for it. eventually, you can be on more or less, depending on how many spread vs MLs you win - you should just keep track so you know what bets are doing the best for you

actually - i have to edit this because i do have the nuggies ML tonight :weed:

 

[Happy Hippo]

i'm a big poker player, too, so i do calculate a lot of odds and i'm a math freak so i love numbers & statistics, and over time, just making straight bets will win you the most money, but making parlays is just too tempting.... that's why vegas loves it!!

 

[WayneWonder]

One thing I have gotten killed with in the parlays is by putting alot of the same games in different parlays. All it takes is one of those games to lose to spoil all your fun.

 

[Pkorkis]

thanks for all the help hippo. seriously I appreciate any advice I can get right now seeing as to how i'm just starting...i understand what you were telling me though w/ the ML's & the +???'s. I should start keeping track...i'll start tonight.

0-0
Haven't lost yet...jump on the bandwagon guys

 

[Pkorkis]

One thing I have gotten killed with in the parlays is by putting alot of the same games in different parlays. All it takes is one of those games to lose to spoil all your fun.

yeah i was just thinking that...not happy about that but hopefully it works out tonight and I don't have to learn by losing


0-0
still no losses... :SIB

 

[Happy Hippo]

One thing I have gotten killed with in the parlays is by putting alot of the same games in different parlays. All it takes is one of those games to lose to spoil all your fun.

:iagree:

this has happened to me way too many times to remember....