- Mar 18, 2009
- 418
- 1
- 0
I look at both teams schedule this year and see 1 game each that may give some insight:
Army - played Hawaii at home in Early September losing at home 31-28. Total went over the 52.5 # and with Hawaii playing on road (and similar system to SMU) this would bode well for SMU in this home game for them: History says lean SMU -7 and over 51.5
SMU - played run heavy Navy in mid-October at Navy and lost 28-21. Total went under the 52 point spread (not a coincidence that the 2 lines i discussed are 52.5 and 52 and todays line is 51.5...). History says play Army +7 and no call on o/u.
My interpretation: SMU playing on its home field is huge...and their fans will show up. What will SMU score based on above history: avg of what Arny gave up to Hawaii and what SMU put up on Navy is say 25 for our "base #". I'm adding 4 points for home field since both were based on away games. Add 2 pts for Navy being better than Army. Add 2 pts for Teacher June Jones being better than Hawaii coach. So 25+4+2+2= about 33 for SMU.
Army we'll avg the 28 from above 2 history games. We'll take 3 away because road game vs home games above. I think that is the only adjustment making here. Army scores about 25 then.
So I see about 33 - 25...putting spread at 8, and o/u at 58. Light play on SMU and on over.
Army - played Hawaii at home in Early September losing at home 31-28. Total went over the 52.5 # and with Hawaii playing on road (and similar system to SMU) this would bode well for SMU in this home game for them: History says lean SMU -7 and over 51.5
SMU - played run heavy Navy in mid-October at Navy and lost 28-21. Total went under the 52 point spread (not a coincidence that the 2 lines i discussed are 52.5 and 52 and todays line is 51.5...). History says play Army +7 and no call on o/u.
My interpretation: SMU playing on its home field is huge...and their fans will show up. What will SMU score based on above history: avg of what Arny gave up to Hawaii and what SMU put up on Navy is say 25 for our "base #". I'm adding 4 points for home field since both were based on away games. Add 2 pts for Navy being better than Army. Add 2 pts for Teacher June Jones being better than Hawaii coach. So 25+4+2+2= about 33 for SMU.
Army we'll avg the 28 from above 2 history games. We'll take 3 away because road game vs home games above. I think that is the only adjustment making here. Army scores about 25 then.
So I see about 33 - 25...putting spread at 8, and o/u at 58. Light play on SMU and on over.
