Sneaky Bird gets the worm

[JT Sneaks]

Okay after a rough last night I hope I got this out of my system....

Yesterday's recap...
2-5 -2.60 (5-10L15)

Special Thanks to the expo backers who persuaded me to bandwagon for a nice,and almost my only, win!

Overall:
54-44, +21.64

One goal I always set is to try and have ten more wins than losses, and since last night put me under that goal, I thought I should crack the books early.

Back in minutes with the early games.



[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 07-21-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

Detroit @ Cleveland -200 / 11O15

A couple of early points that jump out in this game.

Behind The Plate
Hirschbeck is behind the plate and those who follow umps know he is a good one as his O/U numbers are very lopsided at 3/15.

Nagy Vs. Who?
A. PettyJohn gets the start for the ttigers today and the only numbers (right now) I have on this kid is that he pitched one game this season and got shelled. He pitched five innings giving up five runs, to include three dingers to the mighty reds? I't didn't help that the tigers only gave him one run in that game.

Analysis
With the early questions and notes behind us, let's break it down.

Series
The series between these two has been dominated this year by the tribe. Although the tigers won yesterday the tribe is 9-4 this year vs. the tigers. The second game of a series also seems to be a good point for the tribe as they are 21-10 overall and are 9-5 after a loss. The tigers in the same role are below .500 at 14-17, but equal the tribe at 9-6 if it is after a win.

Overall
The tigers have won four out of the last five, and seven out of the last ten. One of those losses was when Pettyjohn pitched.
Cleveland has won three out of four, but is just 5-5 in the last ten.
The tigers are not morning people as they are just 33-45 in day games while the tribe is 48-33.

Pitching
I have already covered the short numbers on pettyjohn, so I will turn to tribe starter Nagy.

Nagy in his last three is 1-1 with an era over eight, but it could be a bit skewered as he did make a start in enron field. Overall his numbers are not sharp this season. At the jake he is only 1-3 with an era over eight, and in the day he is just 1-1 with an era over nine. Looking for the bright spot? Here it is. When nagy starts against the tigers, the tribe is 8-2 to includ four wins in his last four starts at the Jake.

Lineups
This is important to today's game on both sides the indians have been without Burks, and Gonzo, both run producers who are banged up, and the Tigers have been sitting Tony Clark fueling the specualation fire that he will be traded.

Final Analysis
Side
The tribe is screaming for me to play them in this contest, but the chalk is too much for a team that is losing at home, and it may be getting to them mentally."I don't know what's going on here," said Tribe shortstop Omar Vizquel. "We're supposed to feel comfortable at home, with all the fans and everything. For some reason, we just don't win here."

However with the better pitcher, and the hotter bats I would consider putting the tribe in a parlay.

Total
This total is at 11 due to the hot hitting of both clubs and the fact that detroit as a young pitcher going to the hill. The weather is also a factor in this line as the wind is currently blowing out of the Jake, but I am playing the Under here and I will show you several reasons why to include the Sneaks X-Factor.

1) Although the Tigers have a young pitcher on the hill I look for him to do alright. He has already got that one game under his belt, and he is a southpaw an advantage against the tribe. Tribe is hitting .194 vs. lefties in last ten.

2) Power outage. The tribe is sitting some run producers in burks and gonzo, leaving Thome the cleanup role and some pressure.

3) Weather. This is a mystery to me. The wind is blowing out to center so it should favor the Over right? Wrong. The O/U is 0/4 this year when blowing out and when the winds are between 10-20 the O/U is 7/12, again favoring the under.

4) X-Factor
As mentioned earlier Hirschbeck gets the call behind the plate, and he his an under ump to say the least. This year he is 3/15, but that only scrathches the surface. He has never had a year where the Over has exceeded his under numbers and since '97 his O/U numbers are 43/90. The under comes in 68%!

With a call from the higher ups to call more strikes Hirschbeck must be licking his lips. I look for him to keep Nagy sharp, while making the young lefty look seasoned.

Final: Cleveland 7 Detroit 2

PLAY UNDER 11 -105

JT

Sneaks

Afternoon Trifecta:
1) UNDER 11 -105 Tribe/Tigers
to be cont.

 

[thisisbad]

Wow, that is a lot of info man. I love it

You and Rander should team up, you both give great writeups, and may even save some time between you. Just a thought, not trying to intrude.

Anyway, what about playing Clev on runline to cut down the juice? Seems like a great play today.

Thanks again man.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

JT:

Excellent write-up. Wish I had read your report before posting my plays for the day.

I still see value inthe Tigers at +170, although I realize the Tigers rookie starter doesn't instill much confidence. problem is -- with Nagy and the shaky relief staff, Tribe has a hard time being justified at ANYWHERE NEAR 2-1, even against a weak team -- let alone a team like Detroit which has been scoring runs out the arse. We disagree on this game, but I am considering a hedge on the UNDER -- which basically means my boy for the Tigers has to hold the Tribe to <5 runs. If Detroit/UNDER doesn't sound like the weirdest possible hedge play in baseball history -- then I don't know what does.

That's my play.

Again -- nice write-up.

Nolan

 

[JT Sneaks]

It's articles like this that make me pass on the tribe...


Driving in a runner from third is baseball's version of scoring at a one-third discount because you can drive it in with an out. And when you consider that many games are decided by one or two runs ...well, here's Garner on the importance of driving in runners from third with fewer than two out:


"It's the difference between winning and losing a pennant. The inability to do it probably affects 20 games a year. If you can do it, you're going to win 20 more games. That's the difference between winning 80 and 100 games.


"When you learn how to do it, and you're facing a top pitcher and your pitching is good enough to compete with that, then a team is going to win because of a mistake, or someone is going to do a hitting fundamental -- move the runner over and get him in."


A good team will drive in about 60 percent of runners from third with fewer than two out. The Tigers have exceeded that ideal while winning eight of their past 11. During that streak, they are 14-for-22 at driving in a runner from third with fewer than two out and the difference three runs or fewer.


I still think the under is the play here.

thisisbad,

Whenever I think I have a possible play with large chalk, I always look to the run line first, but don't let the money fool you. Just because your dropping the line from around -200 to -110 doesn't give it more value. The key point is if the tribe will be able to cover the run and a half. In this case I don't think so, let me give you a couple of reasons.

1) I think this game will go under and therefore it is very possible for the game to remain close and when I have an under I prefer it because teams tend to play tighter.

2) I hate to give runs to a team that is winning. A hot team finds a way to keep it close, and makes hits at the right time and the tigers are doing just that. (see above article)

3) I hate to give runs with a team that is playing in a tough situation. The indians are not playing well at home, and I think it is affecting the attitude in the clubhouse.

I hope this helps with your selection and I wish you the best.

ND,

It does sound like the wierdest possible hedge play, but I like it!

Back with the second part of the trifecta...

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Boston @ Chi Sox-115 / 10 un15

Analysis
No questions or notes that jump out in this one so I am going staright to the game itself.

Side
The consensus seems to be on the white sox in this situation, but I will pass. Baldwin pitches well against the sox, but they still hit him hard. The red sox have played better and as a matter of fact have the third best record in the bigs since may 24th only behind seattle, and atlanta. However Ohka goes for the red sox and he is know for giving up a big chunk of runs early and often.

PASS

Total
Here is where it gets good.

Pitching
Baldwin's career era vs. boston is over 6 at 6.48 and the lineup should look forward to seeing him to include hot hitting manny who had two longballs last night.
Daubach .308 (may not play as he was hit in the head with a foul tip last night)
Nixon .600
Offerman .313
O'leary .368
Manny .321
Baldwin also has an era over six in his last three starts. The over has also cashed three out of his last four start and opponents are hitting .339 against him in his last three starts.

Ohka has only pitched two innings against the white sox, but he has a reputation for giving up the big inning. In his last three starts he has an era over 8.The red sox have lost six out of his last seven and he has never given the sox more than five innings in those starts. That means the red sox bullpen will get some time. Pulphiser and lowe have been dark spots of late and if they get a chance to throw today this game could look as though it is being played in coors. Ohka has also been bad in day starts going 0-2 with an era of 4.84.

Pens
The recent struggle by the red sox pen has been noted, so now let's look at chicago. The white sox used up some of their pen of late, and the remaining members of the pen combine for an era over nine in the last three.

The bo sox have been averaging about five runs a game while the chi sox just under five which already puts us near the total.

Behind The Plate
Cousins gets the call behind the plate where the totals in 2001 are at 13/8, but more importantly he is averaging 10.57 runs per game, along with two home runs per game. He is making sure the pitchers have to thro precise to get strikes. In his last eight games overall the O/U is 5/3, when he has been behind the plate with the white sox the over has cashed four straight and eight out of ten. He has been behind the plate with baldwin three times and the over has cashed ALL three times. When he has been behind the plate for the bo sox the Over has cashed four out of the last six, and six out of ten. The one time he was behind the plate for ohka it was an under. In his last two years behind the plate the O/U is 36/18 (67%) and out of those games when he has worked a total of ten the OVER has cashed nine out of 11 times (82%)!


Finally a little more gravy please....

white sox have seen the Over come in at 4-0-1 in the last five....

Final: Sox 10 Sox 6


PLAY OVER 10 -105

Afternoon Trifecta:
1) UNDER 11 -105 Tribe/Tigers
2) OVER 10 -105 Bo Sox/Chi Sox
to be cont.


Last leg of the trifecta and starting lineups as I get them...up next...

JT

Sneaks

 

[wigs]

i see det under up to +110 some places.

 

[thisisbad]

JT, i understand totally. Thanks for the info. First time with bases, still got a lot to learn man

 

[JT Sneaks]

Great info wigs I appreciate the line update, I have not pulled the trigger as of yet and my preferred book has Even.

Thanks....

Sneaks

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Tony Clark & Juan Gonzalez are both in the lineup.

Detroit
Cedeno
Easley
Higginson
Fick
Clark
Halter
Simon
Cruz
Encarnacion

Cleveland
Cabrera
Vizquel
Alomar
Gonzalez
Thome
Cordova
Cordero
Fryman
Laker

 

[JT Sneaks]

Time Crunch want to get this out, info to follow.....

Afternoon Trifecta:
1) UNDER 11 -105 Tribe/Tigers
2) OVER 10 -105 Bo Sox/Chi Sox
3) UNDER 10 +105 Sea/Minn

JT

Sneaks

 

[wigs]

2 big under umps with high totals today, hirschebeck and meals in houston today. i can't ignore these numbers they have when behind the plate. i will gladly take +110. i watched a hirschbeck game a few months ago at enron with doug davis and tony mcknight pitching and was amazed as to how big his strike zone actually is. that game ended 2-1 i believe. i dont think this one will but i definitely think under offers some tremendous value with a guy who hasn't been involved in an over on a total above 9.5

[This message has been edited by wigs (edited 07-21-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

Thanks for the info TU, also for those who have not checked out happy capper's post on CWS it's worth a looksee.....

Twins/Sea Under

going to make this quick as it will be useless in about ten minutes. Unknown's take the hill for both teams today but they have both pitched in the bigs and have both pitched well. Both teams are not hitting well, and seattle's pitching has been red hot posting five shutouts this month alone. The bullpen for seattle has a string of 28 scoreless innings in a row.

Hope this helps although it is late....

oh yeah we have an under ump behind the plae as well....

Later,

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Tampa Bay +120

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Okay here it is....

Montreal +175
Mets +120
St. Louis -1.5
Houston -1.5
KC +145

and that's just my parlay...

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

no , not deja vu just posting here for record keeping...additional info to the post at the end....



Tapani is a great pitcher, if he is pitching a day game at wrigley. The stros know this is the chance they have been waiting to make an impact in the division and it comes at a good time as the bats are on fore! It gets better against Tapani....

Tapani in his career has an era over six against the stros and this lineup is like murderer's row against him.....

Alou .375
Biggio .400
Castillo .375
Hildago .500
Lugo .625
Merced .400

this does not even include bags or berkman, who hit less than .250 against tapani...

The cubs are not hitting well when tapani start giving him just 1.7 runs in support in his last three starts.The cubs have lost six of his start in a row and have lost six out of his last seven against the astros.

In the lastten games the astros are hitting 308 vs righties while the cubs are juts at .213....

PLAY Astros -1.5 +165

JT

Sneaks

additional info
The astros are 6-4 in the last ten, and all six wins have come by at least two runs....

The cubs are 4-6 in the last ten and five of those losses were by two or more runs....

Finally head-to-head dating back to last year....the astros have won seven in a row against the cubs to include 4-0 thisyear, and overall 10 out of the last 11 meetings in those ten wins the astros won eight by two or more runs to include every matchup this year.