I Look at stats and blah blah blah, but don't have a "system" in place. How did you guys learn to cap. Can you offer some resources, literature, prolific handicappers to look at etc. Thank you.
So how do I learn to cap games
- Thread starter M. Pressure
- Start date
get your favorite coin out and start flipping.
if that doesn't work stick to flippin burgers instead. :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
if that doesn't work stick to flippin burgers instead. :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
I just look for sketchy lines that would draw the public in
example. last week KC @ Miami... Miami was -1 Im guessing if you asked 10 people, 8-9 would say KC wins this game, that made me think Miami was a pretty solid play.
Just things like that. I like taking home dogs alot too.
example. last week KC @ Miami... Miami was -1 Im guessing if you asked 10 people, 8-9 would say KC wins this game, that made me think Miami was a pretty solid play.
Just things like that. I like taking home dogs alot too.
if you handicap stats or talent in the nfl, you are simply wasting your time. nfl is all "regression to the mean" and "buy low/sell high". if you follow that, along with the discipline to never lay more than 4 points max in this league, you will make money. simpistic? perhaps. profitable? absolutely.
Handicapping is like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get. Seriously though as one of the replies mentions, you can sometimes spot a pointspread that looks too easy and the average Joe like yourself will be adding up all his stats and trends and will be loving that game. Rule number one is if it looks too easy it is. Go the other way with that pick as you will be on the books side which is good. I also factor in what a team did the week before which means zero to me but a whoile lot to the average gambler. For instance this week the raiders play the Chiefs. raider stock is high and Chief stock is way down because of the Miami loss. take the chiefs. thats just an example. You also have to have a gut feeling that tells you the best game on the card for your play. goodluck
I forgot to add that Greed is the downfall of mankind and if you dont have money to lose you shouldnt be gambling. Greed is not good.
One Huge factor is the emotional factor of a game and how a team is coming up to a game from a so called pyschological standpoint.If a team is coming off a tough loss in a game that they were "hyped" up for they are a poor bet that week especially as a favorite,Example last wekk pats lose a game they had marked on their calender all season to colts they play sloppy lose the game.Team focus is off for next weeks game vs jets and are a 10.5 favorite they are a bad play.Also invovled in this game another emotional factor jet coach eric mangini has been blown off by former collegue bill belicek ever since jets hired him.The jet players love mangini off bye week had time to focus and were"focused" on winning the game for their coach to stick it up beliceks ass.Great betting opportunity there.I wouldnt waste my time on stats and trends they mean very little.You may find a good matchup once in a blue moon but not worth the effort.Agree on above if a line looks too good it usually is.Many other emotional factors have more impact on game than matchups etc.HAs team played 2 tough home games vs divisional rivals and now are going on road as double digit favorite vs crappy team?That wont happen often but a smaller version of that happens fairly often.Good luck with your "handicapping"
i read somewhere and try to always remember and often forget that stats only tell half the story.......the other side of things is called a will to win...............
Many times teams will be looking ahead, relaxing, ect.
Vegas has a good hold on this............common bettors don't...............
The line that I don't get is Indy -1.
Many times teams will be looking ahead, relaxing, ect.
Vegas has a good hold on this............common bettors don't...............
The line that I don't get is Indy -1.
Look at the card and decide which is worst bet of the day and bet it. Or find what you feel is the best bet of the day...and fade it! Most GOY's and Locks usually are anthing but.
Read JR Millers "How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread".It will save you a lot of the time and heartache associated with "learning" about the exquisite torture that is sports handicapping.Don't even consider his service,(its against the rules to tout non sposors here,but thats only the first reason.The second reason is that the service isn't very good most of the time)but the book will teach you a lot.
I'd have to agree with what gman and Emerson say. These kids on here that quote stats and trends are clueless. If you could handicap based on stats and trends, every idiot in America would win.. The fact is, the stats and trends are garbage. They are crutches used to justify picks by people that play favorites and bet overs. You won't see dog players quoting stats and trends because the dogs rarely have stats and trends that justify playing them....yet dog bettors are the ones that make money on a consistant basis.
I've read a couple books by pro gamblers and they all seem to think reading into stats is a waste of time. Think about this: what are the stats telling you??? In a 16 game season, you might might be able to make something out after the season is over, but wtf do the stas tell you about a team that has played 5, 6, or x amount of games? Answer = dick. Stats aren't weighted. You see an average against all teams when teams stack up in different ways. There are game plan issues, emotional factors, etc., that affect performance on a given day....and, in football, there aren't enough games to accurately see how it all evens out.
Bottom line, know that stats and trends (which casinos are more than happy to provide) are worthless. Look for "opportunities". Opportunities are "wrong favorites", unloved dogs, and "bad spots".
Wrong Favorites - See Auburn/Florida opening line. You won't win all of these games, but follow the winning percentage of these plays and you will be shocked. Books aren't stupid. They look to exploit knowledge advantages and aren't afraid to gamble when they believe they have the best of it.
Unloved Dogs - If you see a team/spread where you know it would take balls of steel to lay a grand on them, that is probably a decent bet. Like the boys were saying, when it looks too good, it probably is, and this is ultimately a version of the stock market. Favorites are overpriced stocks and dogs tend to be undervalued.
Bad Spots - See Louisville/Rutgers game. Was Rutgers the better team? Hell no. Was the Ville in a bad spot? Yep. You try playing football after winning the biggest game in your school's history. Budweiser made a mint in Louisville after the win over WV, and I bet the players contributed. You can't expect people to come out each and every week like it's the only game that matters. It just isn't the case. Michigan is going to have a hard time getting pumped up to play some MAC school after a game against Notre Dame.
I've read a couple books by pro gamblers and they all seem to think reading into stats is a waste of time. Think about this: what are the stats telling you??? In a 16 game season, you might might be able to make something out after the season is over, but wtf do the stas tell you about a team that has played 5, 6, or x amount of games? Answer = dick. Stats aren't weighted. You see an average against all teams when teams stack up in different ways. There are game plan issues, emotional factors, etc., that affect performance on a given day....and, in football, there aren't enough games to accurately see how it all evens out.
Bottom line, know that stats and trends (which casinos are more than happy to provide) are worthless. Look for "opportunities". Opportunities are "wrong favorites", unloved dogs, and "bad spots".
Wrong Favorites - See Auburn/Florida opening line. You won't win all of these games, but follow the winning percentage of these plays and you will be shocked. Books aren't stupid. They look to exploit knowledge advantages and aren't afraid to gamble when they believe they have the best of it.
Unloved Dogs - If you see a team/spread where you know it would take balls of steel to lay a grand on them, that is probably a decent bet. Like the boys were saying, when it looks too good, it probably is, and this is ultimately a version of the stock market. Favorites are overpriced stocks and dogs tend to be undervalued.
Bad Spots - See Louisville/Rutgers game. Was Rutgers the better team? Hell no. Was the Ville in a bad spot? Yep. You try playing football after winning the biggest game in your school's history. Budweiser made a mint in Louisville after the win over WV, and I bet the players contributed. You can't expect people to come out each and every week like it's the only game that matters. It just isn't the case. Michigan is going to have a hard time getting pumped up to play some MAC school after a game against Notre Dame.
ALONG THE SAME THOUGHTS AS PREVIOUS POSTERS ... FIRST OF ALL GO THRU EVERY GAME WITH THE POINTSPREAD BEFORE DOING ANY CAPPING AT ALL ... ANY GAME THAT LOOKS VERY EASY ( A "LOCK") TAKE A REAL GOOD LOOK AT BECAUSE IT IS PROBABLY RIGHT TO GO THE OTHER WAY ...
"4" IS A KEY NUMBER FOR ME ... WITH ALL THE BACKDOOR COVERS I HATE GIVING MORE THAN THAT ... BUT QUITE OFTEN VALUE IN THE DOG ESPECIALLY AT HOME ...
ALSO MANY GOOD CAPPERS ON HERE TO WATCH ...
"4" IS A KEY NUMBER FOR ME ... WITH ALL THE BACKDOOR COVERS I HATE GIVING MORE THAN THAT ... BUT QUITE OFTEN VALUE IN THE DOG ESPECIALLY AT HOME ...
ALSO MANY GOOD CAPPERS ON HERE TO WATCH ...
Go through the games with spreads, pick the games that pop out at you, circle them or write them down, leave them alone for a little while over night whatever.
Come back to them and go oppoisite on your mortal locks.
As a wise man once said when coming home in trouble: Slam the door, throw the fridge on the floor, and yell out anyone want to get F*($ked!!!!
But remember always throw the fridge on the floor.
Makes for something to do the next morning when you are in trouble.
Come back to them and go oppoisite on your mortal locks.
As a wise man once said when coming home in trouble: Slam the door, throw the fridge on the floor, and yell out anyone want to get F*($ked!!!!
But remember always throw the fridge on the floor.
Makes for something to do the next morning when you are in trouble.
- Mar 16, 2002
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I do look at a few things....
NFL - I almost always play any home team getting points....
Certain teams match up well against others....
Hou plays Jax tough
Den plays NE well
NE typically plays the Colts tough
Baltimore against Pitt (close games)
Dallas owns the Skins
Here are a few things I look at - Yards per Play.... (good running teams can distort the numbers) If a team has an advantage on both sides of the ball, they have a good chance of winning. I then look at the QB completion percentage and yards per pass/tds -Ints. Like others say.. If it looks to good, stay away or play the other side.
NFL - I almost always play any home team getting points....
Certain teams match up well against others....
Hou plays Jax tough
Den plays NE well
NE typically plays the Colts tough
Baltimore against Pitt (close games)
Dallas owns the Skins
Here are a few things I look at - Yards per Play.... (good running teams can distort the numbers) If a team has an advantage on both sides of the ball, they have a good chance of winning. I then look at the QB completion percentage and yards per pass/tds -Ints. Like others say.. If it looks to good, stay away or play the other side.
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What bad advice. If your going to fade your own picks, then what is the point of doing the work.
Me i start looking at games on Wed. I pay close attention to injury updates and player news. Games are won in the trenches so thats probably what i look out for the most. As far as stats i usually go back a few weeks. Rush D, Pass D, Rush O, Pass O, special teams and so on. Points scored on the road Vs points at home.
Let down games are big for me. The Colts won 2 huge games on the road and then came home last week to a soft Buff team. As predicted the Colts took the week off and Buff covered easily. Same with Balt on the road vs Tenn coming off the bye week.
Last week was a great spot for let down games which is why i played 11 games. I usually only play 4-6.
Think like a coach. A few weeks ago there was a game where both starting RBs were injured and both Ds were strong against the run. Everyone on the forum was screaming UNDER. If you are a coach and you are playing a strong run D without your starting RB are you going to try and stuff it down their throat. As expected both teams abandon the run early and there was lots and lots of passing. The game went over.
I also like to take dogs that have enough fire power for a back door cover. Some bad teams with QBs that are decent enough for a back door.
GB, Jets, SF, Clev, Houst, Rams, and a few others. These teams are getting points every week.
There are some other variables that i take into account but this is getting long winded... Anyway if you do your homework you will win some games.
Any questions let me know.
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Wow guys, this was more than I expected. I thought I would get like two smart ass posts then this thread would sink to the bottom. Thanks for taking the time to provide your insight and knowledge. You guys have pointed me a step in the right direction and have given me somwhat of a foundation to build on. Feel free to keep this rolling. As always this is much appreciated, Im sure not only for me, but maybe other posters on here as well. We are all here to have fun and make a little money...thats what I like about this place. Thanks again cheers. :toast:
PS
Stay way from trends... for example you see stuff like this all the time.
"The under has hit 9 out of 10 times this year. Bet under."
The problem with this line of thinking is that those other games have ZERO to do with the game at hand.
Trends are idiotic. People post trends that go back 2 yrs sometimes. Hank Goldberg plays trends a lot and that is why he is a phuking joke. Players get traded coaches move, personnel changes every year. What does a game played last season have to do w/ a game that is being played this week.
Stay way from trends... for example you see stuff like this all the time.
"The under has hit 9 out of 10 times this year. Bet under."
The problem with this line of thinking is that those other games have ZERO to do with the game at hand.
Trends are idiotic. People post trends that go back 2 yrs sometimes. Hank Goldberg plays trends a lot and that is why he is a phuking joke. Players get traded coaches move, personnel changes every year. What does a game played last season have to do w/ a game that is being played this week.
Phil Steele has a book called "ten keys to a winning season". It's pretty interesting.
My 2 cents
1. Money management is the most important factor of them all. Don't ever bet it all on 1 play.
Establish your bankroll & never bet any more then 5% on a single wager.
2. Keep away from parlays. The big reward is not worth it.
3. You don't have to bet the game just because it's on T.V .
4. Don't be afraid to play a ugly dog.
My 2 cents
1. Money management is the most important factor of them all. Don't ever bet it all on 1 play.
Establish your bankroll & never bet any more then 5% on a single wager.
2. Keep away from parlays. The big reward is not worth it.
3. You don't have to bet the game just because it's on T.V .
4. Don't be afraid to play a ugly dog.
Very briefly...this has nothing to with stats, trends etc. etc..,but are absolutely some of the most important factors..
If your impulsive ,unprepared,undiciplined :nono: , save yourself all the time and Just throw your money out the window.
Read alot, build some criteria to follow, learn how to JUST SAY NO!!
Ultimate key element for success???
DISIPLINE!!!!!
:grins: do you have it? GL.
If your impulsive ,unprepared,undiciplined :nono: , save yourself all the time and Just throw your money out the window.
Read alot, build some criteria to follow, learn how to JUST SAY NO!!
Ultimate key element for success???
DISIPLINE!!!!!
:grins: do you have it? GL.
Though there has been lots of good advice, and not very good advice, I easily think Tulah's post sums it up(sans phil steele who is a lying tout)
You never witness cappers(pro or recreational) hit over 65% over a consistent period of time. So the #1 handicapping principle you need to get is money management, because even if you hit 9 out of 10 you will lose it all if you have no money management, while a guy who is hitting 1 out of 10 will still have coin left to fight another day.
In regards to bball(pro/college) and college football -
I disagree with people who say stats/trends are a waste of time. The best handicapper on this site uses them all the time. And I use stats and trends ALOT to back up playing dogs in these sports, much more than I do in playing overs/favorites.
A couple of systems that are easy to follow and implement and seem to be succesful are -(applicable to college foots)
Double Digit Dogs that outrush thier oppenents and have better rushing D as well.
Teams that avg Double the rushing yrds than their oppenent and allow half as many rushing yrds on D.
(Pro BBall) - Play the under on the lowest game on the board when there is more than 3 games (check Keyser's thread in pro hoops)
There are tons more systems, and these are pretty basic, but they can be tracked and the two college foots system have proven to be winners (I will be waiting to see the effectiveness of the pro bball system)
I think start off with basic systems, follow a few proven handicappers, and MONEY MANAGEMENT are the best ways to get into handicapping - I think analyzing stats/trends/gut reactions are all tools of very successful cappers yet like anything you will need experience to develop them.
GL this season and for years to come
Oh and 1 more thing- post girly pictures in your threads so that everyone will be too distracted to read your losers LOL - works for me!
