socon sunday

loophole

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western Carolina and vmi come through yesterday; today brings the last socon regular season game with mercer visiting the unc-g Spartans. anyone who's been reading my socon write-ups knows the adversity the mercer bears have faced this month so I won't repeat it here. they've now lost the last 6 s/u and ats. today's game will determine who finishes 6th in the socon regular season and earns the last bye for last bye for the conference tournament. the Spartans are 4-0 s/u and ats and are a solid 10-4 @ home. during their winning streak, they've clearly made an effort to step up their defense - last 4 fg%/3pt% =27%/25.6%; 35.1%/20.7%; 38.1%/21.7%; 37.3%/23.1%. you have to feel for the mercer bears, but it's hard to imagine them doing anything but losing today and going 1 and out in the tournament. unc-g -4 is the play.
 

buddy

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Seems to be a bit ironic...I mean me playing devil's advocate in this reply while thinking of getting ready for church.

#1 / They say a "bettors memory is only as good as the last game", so in that regard, NC GREEN has bettors drolling. Given past performances, NC GREEN bettors already have their ticket cashed. But I'm always leary of that phrase we've all heard before, "Not so fast, my friend."

#2 / There doesn't seem to be much of a disparity in performance between common opponents.

#3 / This is Mercers 2nd cons rd game which would seem to add to their burden, but Mercer has been in the role of a favorite 7 times in their past 10 and three consecutive loss/no covers in that role is most uncommon.

Conclusion: I think this outcome may be much closer than one would think.

Good luck.

I'll pray for you.
 

gk51

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Line drop from 4 1/2 to 3 1/2?

Someone out for UNCG or any news? Thanks for any help.
 

loophole

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nothing im aware of. there's a relatively small handle on this game and fairly balanced action from what I see. probably one big bet came in and everyone reacted to it. I'm happy where I am.
 

DZ

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Late cover by UNC-Gbro. Maybe a little lucky but a cover nonetheless. Thanks again and keep it up! :toast:
 

gk51

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Thanks Loop. Your socon analysis are the best. Looking forward to the tournament.
 
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