socon thursday

[loophole]

rough day for my plays yesterday as Tulane plays dead for ecu and the wolfpack fizzles out once again. only my pack can turn a 12 point lead into a 7 point deficit in about 6 minutes. but I digress, on to tonight's socon games.


Wofford @ western Carolina: this game appears to offer the most value in the socon tonight. there's a couple of battles going on in the conference standings in the final week of the regular season. Wofford, furman, and etsu are all 11-5 in conference play and in contention for 2nd place, which brings not only a tournament bye, but a very strategic day off after the first game. meanwhile, western, mercer and unc-g are tied for 5th @ 8-8, with the 1st 6 places receiving byes. both of tonight's teams have a lot riding tonight.

there's a history between Wofford and western. both go back to the original southern conference, and although the overall series is tied 25-25, Wofford has won the last 6, and knocked the 'cats out of the socon tourney 4 of the last 6 years. western's last game game in Spartanburg is worth a close look. the catamounts were short a couple of players but played well enough to go to the half with the lead. things got ugly in the second half though. 4 cat players fouled out and, after going 37/49 from the ft line, Wofford recovered for a 19 point win. there's nothing in print about this, but you just get the feeling that the 'cats have had this game circled.

both these teams have been playing well, winning 5 of their last 6. Wofford has a prolific offense, sporting 3 of the top 4 3 pt shooters in the league. but the terriers have a huge game Saturday @ etsu that will go a long way in deciding who gets that 2nd place seed. also, the line for this game is a story in itself. 4 weeks ago, the 'cats were 4 point dogs in Spartanburg; tonight they're 2 point dogs in Cullowhee. even at that number, they're still drawing most of the action from what I see. I've got a high opinion of western coach larry hunter, who was a wolfpack assistant a little over a decade ago. i think he has his guys ready tonight. western Carolina +2 is the play.

 

[loophole]

mercer @ vmi: I having a hard time spitting this out . . . but I like the keydets to cover tonight. hear me out before you laugh out loud. yes, vmi is the doormat of the socon. they've lost 8 of their last 9, and 13 of 15 socon games, have shown some life lately. they won their last home game against unc-g, and played samford down to the wire in Birmingham last Saturday. this is senior night, and the keydets do feature a couple of senior starters. don't really know but senior night is usually a pretty big deal at the military schools.

but this play is really about fading mercer. the bears are reeling since the shooting death of one of their teammates. at the end of last month they were 8-3 in conference and in contention for the regular season crown. after the shooting, they had one emotional home win against the citadel, but thereafter have gone 0-5 s/u and ats. this is not the same mercer team from a month ago. besides the lost teammate, they've lost two key players to suspension, and now, in the course of dropping heartbreaking nailbiter to etsu in macon on Saturday, two more key players - stephon jelks and ethan stair - collided had had to leave the game in the closing minutes. both are listed as questionable but appear to have made the trip with the team. btw, that's close to 500 miles from macon, ga to Lexington, va. i'm guessing its about 8 or 9 hours by bus. both will probably play, but if either is not 100%, especially jelks, it will further handicap the bears.

finally, the line tonight is currently mercer -7, and @ that number they're drawing about 65%-70% of the action, depending on who's numbers your're looking at. yet, amonth ago they beat vmi in macon by 15 as 13- point favorites. that makes today's line at least a point or 2 heavy, despite mercer's travails since then. that looks like market recognition to me, and enough for me to play vmi +7.

 

[3 putt pete]

I must tell you how refreshing it is to see somebody like you infuse some knowledge to this forum. I love the roll up the sleeves and research approach as well as the sharing of such information which seems a lost art. The real cappers here are few and far between.

Best of luck

 

[GaDawg12]

I must tell you how refreshing it is to see somebody like you infuse some knowledge to this forum. I love the roll up the sleeves and research approach as well as the sharing of such information which seems a lost art. The real cappers here are few and far between.

Best of luck

Been reading Loops writeups forever and totally agree Pete very insightful and helpful. Thx Loop:toast:

 

[loophole]

thanks guys. writing them games up actually helps me make my picks, which I enjoy as much as the gambling. I miss the days when there use to be a lot more of that around here. besides, I figure I can be lazy with record tracking if I tell everyone why I'm playing a game. then everyone can decide for themselves whether there's merit to the play. I'm also one of those guys that just play out of a handful of conferences - socon is my main one - so I keep a lot of info/sites on my computer.

1 more for now.

furman @ etsu: this is the biggest game going on in the socon tonight. winner here is a favorite to claim 2nd in the conference, with its day off in the tourney. etsu is technically still in contention for 1st place, but league-leader utc would have to take an unlikely loss to samford in Chattanooga or @ vmi. for this matchup, history compels me (and apparently almost everyone else) to bet the bucs in this spot. the paladins have historically been a sorry road team, even in their best years. this year they've actually played more competitively, but they're still just 3-11 overall, 2-5 in conference on the road. they have wins @ vmi, samford and appy state - that's it. out of their 11 losses, they covered tonight's line 3 times - @cunc-a, unc-g and citadel furman's last win in Johnson city was in 2005. the last time they swept etsu was the '86-'87 seaso, and yes, the bucs are in revenge mode. conversely, etsu has one of the strongest home courts in the league. they're 11-2 this year, with losses to scon leader utc two weeks ago and caa leader unc-w back in novenber. I like this game @ -3- or -4, with all the action on the bucs wouldn't want let it get too far up ther. the p[lay is etsu -3-.

 

[3 putt pete]

Played ETSU this morning as well as Tenn Tech. The only two games on the board that I really like enough to get involved with.

 

[loophole]

I'm a tenn tech buyer tonight too pete. tough team @ home.

 

[hawkeye]

Thanks for the info. I am laying WC ov--gl

 

[loophole]

makes sense to me hawkeye. if I was hunter I would make mercer run the whole game. g/l

 

[loophole]

briefly, here's one more I like tonight, in the big south, not the socon).

Winthrop @ high point: its senior night in high point. the panthers have 4, but 1 is really special. he's john brown, a 6'8'' power forward who's scored 2210 pts at high point, the most of anyone since they became div1. he's the 2nd leading active scorer currently in the ncaa. high point is of a few ncaa div1 schools (4 I think) that has never participated in march madness. tonight's game will go a long way in deciding who wins the big south regular season and the no.1 tourney seed( only the tourney winner goes dancing). revenge for high point also. interestingly enough, when high point lost in rock hill a few weeks ago, they were 4 point favorites in 1 of their rare lined games. either this is the biggest sucker line of the season or the linesmakers are being lazy. probably not much of a handle here so i'll guess lazy. high point -5 is the play.



glta

 

[loophole]

socon games play out as forecasted but you have to feel for john brown of high point. he injured his right ankle or foot about 3 minutes before halftime and never returned. it was his senior night game and he had 19 points before he left the game. he was owning anyone close to him. glad for his sake high point won the game (but didn't cover) as I would really like to see him lead high point into their 1st ncaa appearance. looking at the short Friday card and might post a play later today.