FYI. This is a copy and paste of some info that was emailed to me by VSIN (Vegas Sports and Information Network) so do with it what you will. :0008
Now onto baseball...
In case you missed it, spring training is now in full swing. Many bettors may not know this, but yes you can bet on spring training. The betting public largely bypasses betting preseason baseball. After all, the games mean nothing, starters rarely play more than inning or two and lineups are littered with rookies and longshots who won't make the Opening Day roster. Teams aren't even trying to win. Many games feature split squads. Also, a good majority of players are working on specific parts of their game, testing new things and not overly concerned about the results. The main goal of most teams is to evaluate players. So why would you bet on something devoid of any meaning?
On the surface, this makes a lot of sense. Lay off and wait until Opening Day when it actually counts. However, believe it or not, wiseguys target spring training betting precisely for these reasons.
Since 2005, spring training underdogs have won at a 46.2% clip according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular-season underdogs are 42.5%. This means that preseason dogs cash at a 3.7% higher clip. Why? Because the games don't matter, which levels the playing field, increases variance and decreases the edge on the favorite. However, despite this higher win percentage, you are still deep in the negative. A $100 bettor betting every preseason dog would have lost $7,609.
The key is betting these dogs on the spread, also known as the run-line. This means betting the dogs at + 1.5 runs, meaning they can either win the game or lose by one and you still win your bet.
Spring training run-line underdogs are 61.8% since 2005. A $100 bettor taking each one would have profited $2,207. If they are also on the road, they improve to 64.4% (profiting $7,643). There is barely any home-field advantage in the preseason due to the unpredictable rosters and small stadium attendances. Plus, games can end in a tie in the preseason, which would cash a + 1.5 bet.
Now onto baseball...
In case you missed it, spring training is now in full swing. Many bettors may not know this, but yes you can bet on spring training. The betting public largely bypasses betting preseason baseball. After all, the games mean nothing, starters rarely play more than inning or two and lineups are littered with rookies and longshots who won't make the Opening Day roster. Teams aren't even trying to win. Many games feature split squads. Also, a good majority of players are working on specific parts of their game, testing new things and not overly concerned about the results. The main goal of most teams is to evaluate players. So why would you bet on something devoid of any meaning?
On the surface, this makes a lot of sense. Lay off and wait until Opening Day when it actually counts. However, believe it or not, wiseguys target spring training betting precisely for these reasons.
Since 2005, spring training underdogs have won at a 46.2% clip according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular-season underdogs are 42.5%. This means that preseason dogs cash at a 3.7% higher clip. Why? Because the games don't matter, which levels the playing field, increases variance and decreases the edge on the favorite. However, despite this higher win percentage, you are still deep in the negative. A $100 bettor betting every preseason dog would have lost $7,609.
The key is betting these dogs on the spread, also known as the run-line. This means betting the dogs at + 1.5 runs, meaning they can either win the game or lose by one and you still win your bet.
Spring training run-line underdogs are 61.8% since 2005. A $100 bettor taking each one would have profited $2,207. If they are also on the road, they improve to 64.4% (profiting $7,643). There is barely any home-field advantage in the preseason due to the unpredictable rosters and small stadium attendances. Plus, games can end in a tie in the preseason, which would cash a + 1.5 bet.
