some early looks

[gardenweasel]

looking at toledo-7(-130)...would like to hear from some mac guru`s here...my guess is that if the over isn`t in the 60`s it might be worth a look....a mediocre(for maryland)maryland offense with a shaky qb put up 40+ on this bunch...toledo could use some home cooking,imo after 3 roadies in a row....the over might be a better play..

vandy+10(-140)....i hate buying a pt and a half,but i`m gonna...vandy has a revenge motive after getting beat last year at home by the middies...and i liked the way they played on the road vs ole miss last week...navy has one of the best coaches in the country in paul johnson...but i`m getting a feel for them and i like them better on the road than as a home favorite....

san diego st-13(-120)...hopefully they won`t be to beat up after michigan...this is an excellent ballclub with a very strong defense..top 10 defense ,maybe.....a legit contender for the mtn west...q.b. was a ? but the passing game clicked for almost 300 yds vs michigan... nevada will have a wide open offense but my guess is they`ll struggle vs this defense..saw moats and lou tech dominate nevada...and i think san diego st is a better club than lou tech...


finally,i really want to take a shot at stanford+21.5 vs the mighty trojans..but i`m not sure..i don`t want to go to the well to many times with this stanford club........with experienced backs,big receivers, an experienced defense(that was shaky last year) and a young phenom qb with a year`s experience under his belt....

with this offense,i would think that the back door could be open even if usc gets out of the gate fast......

we have 2 weeks to prepare here...but,usc has next week off before facing cal the following week...if there was no bye for usc next week,i`d have pulled the trigger here...

right now,i`m wavering a little...maybe ...because this is u.s.c.,the line will rise...

could use some help on this one...there`s always the chance that usc just steamrolls the cardina with the bye looming...l...

 

[gman2]

toledo finally played up to their preseason billing on saturday. i know it wasnt against the greatest opponent, but they really looked sharp on offense. what concerns me though is that defense. i just dont understand what the hell theyre trying to do. they have talent and speed on the D but theyve been shredded all 3 weeks. this might be a game where toledo can 'outscore their defensive liability' though. and this is their glass bowl opener, and theyve always been a dominant home team. can see this being a 45-28 kind of game. im gonna wait and see where the line goes, and what the total opens at. if memory serves correct, rockets have been a solid chalk at home the last few yrs as well. they take care of business vs the inferior teams. but that D is all that worries me

 

[Mr Hockey]

The total is 61.5

 

[AR182]

gw,

i agree with you about toledo. i also jumped on virginia.syracuse is a one dimensional team that cannot match the firepower of virginia on both sides of the ball.

 

[tulah]

USC 1st half rather the

 

[tulah]

entire game . ly up BIG at half

 

[BigSlick]

Love Vandy here (although I cant get near +10 on my book w/o paying out the arss) - its going to be my 2nd largest play of the week behind UF -17 over hapless UK (buying .5).

Looking at Toledo here as well. Although I haven't watched much of the Rockets this year, I have watched the travesty know as the Owls.

 

[Clem D]

Best of luck

 

[mw]

Vandy ran a lot of option at Ole Miss last week. I guess the D ses a good bit of option in practice. You think they can stop the Navy option offense? I'm leaning to Vandy myself.

 

[Joe De]

I'll say it again, Vandy plays better on the road than at home.

They have the talent to give Navy all they can handle.....I've played them at +8

good seeing you around this year weasel....gl

 

[AR182]

pinnacle has vandy at +9.

i jumped on navy when the lines first came out.undecided whether i will keep it.

teams that lost an ot game usually don't do well the following week.

 

[gardenweasel]

heads up on san diego st....their sophomore phenom back lynell hamilton will not play as was indicated by head coach tom craft...

as a matter of fact,he`ll be out until 2005....

part of my play was predicated on what ryan moats of la tech did to nevada in their opener...

and the other part was due to what i see as a large disparity in defenses....

with half the equation blown to hell,i`ll off most of this -13 wager at nevada +15 and keep a little extra sdsu-13 on the side because of that defense...

not recommending this play now that hamilton is down....even though i think sdsu is the much better club.....

g.l.

 

[gardenweasel]

hit on toledo...easy win....over 61.5(landed on 62...lol)

just got vandy in...still glad i bought a point and a half....

stanford played lights out for 3/4`s........really beginning to like edwards....he`s just a sophomore...


still have a small play on san diego st-13 going....with a 13-15 middle going....

17-3 at half...a very tough little san diego st defense...

4-0 with sd st. pending.....

last year was a strong finish...and a great start this year....

going for a colonoscopy in a few weeks.....i already told the doctor to leave the horseshoe alone....

 

[gardenweasel]

5-0.....love it...caught a lot of grief at another site for daring to lay-13 with san diego st`s pedestrian offense....vs nevada`s offense....

this difference was....that stultifying san diego st "d"....

thanks aztecs....obviously that michigan game wasn `t such a fluke....

g.l. tomorrow everybody...a tough pro card,imo...

 

[trolln4walii]

:clap: :clap: Super day gw!! :clap: :clap:

Hope you don't have to skim anything off your earnings on Roy Jones

Looking forward to your insight in the Nfl tomorrow.

 

[gardenweasel]

troll....i wrote something in boxlock`s thread about what happened.....

i did have a couple dollars on the over...very small....never expected roy to be the one going to sleep....

i should have seen this coming,though...
not the k.o.....just rjj hitting the wall....after yo-yoing between heavyweight and 175.....it`s just to hard for a guy that carries no excess weight....to lose muscle and lean tissue...at 35 years
old....roy looked like the anorexic olsen twin in the first tarver fight...

those odds were way out of my league...anything much over -300 is a no go for me.....

i expected to sit through 12 boring rounds of jones basically outboxing journeyman johnson....

instead,we saw something historic and compelling....

that`s boxing...nothing better...

g.l....next week i see some plums...

 

[Box and one]

Gardenweasal...great job yest. Congrads.