Some rebuild, USC reloads

Lumi

LOKI
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Some rebuild, USC reloads



Within the world of college basketball, there is a general consensus that the North Carolina Tar Heels have a huge recruiting advantage that helps bring a never ending supply of blue-chippers to Chapel Hill. Of course, a great reason for that advantage is the past success of the program, as the conference titles, Final Four appearances and national championships have piled up along the way.

The football equivalent is on the left coast, in the form of USC. The Trojans possess a seemingly never-ending conveyor belt of talent, and the result is seven straight campaigns of 11 wins or more, seven Pac-10 crowns in a row, seven consecutive BCS Bowl appearances and a couple of national titles sprinkled in.

The 2008 campaign brought more of the same, as Pete Carroll's troops won 12 of their 13 games, with the one blemish being a 27-21 upset loss at Oregon State in late September. The Trojans buckled down after that, winning 10 straight, including a 38-24 victory over a good Penn State team in the Rose Bowl.


Does USC have the talent to remain on top of the Pac-10?
The team was once again stellar on both sides of the football, averaging well over 400 yards per game, while yielding just over 200 defensively.

The real question heading into 2009, is whether or not USC has the talent to remain on the top of the heap in the Pac-10 and stay in the hunt for yet another national title.

On the offensive side of things, the Trojans will go into the season with very little experience under center. Mark Sanchez has jumped ship to the NFL and from a financial perspective made the right move, considering the New York Jets made him the fifth pick overall.

The quarterback crop this year consists of Aaron Corp, Matt Barkley and Mitch Mustain. Following the spring, Carroll announced that it will be Corp leading the troops, although competition will still be lively heading into the summer and fall. The main problem with the selection is that Corp, just a sophomore this season, completed only two passes last year as the third-string QB. Still, Carroll has plenty of confidence in Corp, who was a Parade All-American in the prep ranks. Mustain has the most experience, starting eight games at Arkansas before transferring to USC in 2007. Barkley is a true freshman and while he possesses a huge upside, he is still a year or two away from making a real impact under center.

The team's ground game, which averaged almost 200 yards per game last year, returns intact and is a real strength heading into the season. A limitless supply of quality backs will be difficult for defenses to contend with. Expect Carroll to lean heavily on his stable of thoroughbreds, most notably Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight.

The receiving corps loses big target Patrick Turner (third-round draft pick), but returns emerging star Damian Williams, who posted a team-high 58 receptions, for 869 yards and nine TDs in 2008.

The offensive line will also be a real strength, with five starters returning led by Preseason All-American Kristofer O'Dowd at center. There is plenty of depth behind the incumbents, and the result should be one of the nation's best offensive fronts.

The other side of the ball has its share of questions, with only five starters returning. The main concerns are within the front seven, which has lost standout linebackers Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews (both first round draft picks) and Rey Maualuga (second-round pick), as well as Fili Moala (second- round), Kyle Moore (fourth-round) and key reserve Kaluka Maiava (fourth- round).

The new-look front could be built around junior end Everson Griffin, who has star potential and served as an effective pass rush specialist last year.

The secondary loses a pair of steady performers as well in Kevin Ellison and Cary Harris (both selected in the NFL draft), but the crown jewel of the defense returns in the form of All-American safety Taylor Mays. The 6-3, 235- pounder could have left for the NFL after his junior campaign, but the two- time All-American returns to anchor the Trojan defense and is poised for another huge campaign.

With all the holes on both sides of the football heading into the season, most teams would chalk up 2009 as a time to recruit heavily and reload for 2010 and beyond.

However, if we have learned anything since the turn of the century, it is that USC does not qualify as "most teams."
 

Lumi

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Hot Seat in South Bend

Hot Seat in South Bend

Hot Seat in South Bend


Charlie Weis took over the Notre Dame program in 2005, and in his first two seasons at the helm, set coaching records with a combined 19 victories and two BCS bowl appearances.

Of course, that all seems like an eon ago doesn't it?

The Irish only won three games in 2007, finishing with the worst record (3-9) in school history. The 2008 campaign was better, with seven victories, capped off with a bowl win over Hawaii (49-21) that ended a long drought of postseason futility. Still, there was a stunning loss to Syracuse (one of the worst teams in the FBS) in South Bend, and major inconsistency in the second half of the season.

After posting the most wins ever in his first two years on the job, Weis followed with the most losses (15) in any two-year span at the school.

So, what does 2009 have in store for the Irish, and will Weis be around to guide the program in 2010?

The schedule is certainly inviting this year, and being alive in the BCS bowl picture may just be enough to keep Weis employed.

Breaking it down, the Irish open up the 2009 campaign at home against one of the weaker WAC programs, Nevada. The Wolf Pack should pose little problem for ND, especially in South Bend.

Notre Dame then hits the road to Ann Arbor for the annual showdown with Michigan. The Wolverines are still in rebuilding mode, and although Rich Rodriguez has some pieces in place now, Notre Dame has the talent to win this one.

Michigan State is next on the docket, and the Spartans must replace a good portion of their offense, including star-power at the quarterback and tailback positions. Another win for the Irish could have this team brimming with confidence.

Next up is a road trip to West Lafayette and the Purdue Boilermakers, who are under new management. Notre Dame will get another "W" heading into a three- game homestand that features Washington, USC and Boston College.

The Huskies should present little resistance, leaving the Irish with a possible 5-0 mark heading into the clash with the Trojans. This is probably a loss for the hometown team, which has lost to USC seven straight times, but look for the Irish to play tough.

The homestand concludes with Boston College, and the Eagles may just catch Notre Dame on either an emotional high or low, resulting in yet another Boston College win in South Bend.

That, however, may be the last time the Irish taste defeat in the regular season. Notre Dame closes out the year with Washington State, Navy, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Stanford.

The Cougars are in disarray and will pose no problem for the Irish, who will play that game in the Alamodome in San Antonio.

The Midshipmen are next on the docket and again will not be much of a threat.

The game at Pittsburgh will be tough, as the Panthers should have one of the best defenses in the country this year. However, a narrow Notre Dame win is likely.

Connecticut is an up-and-coming team in the Big East, but the Huskies have lost one of the nation's premier tailbacks in Donald Brown, and will be traveling to South Bend in late November.

The regular season concludes with a trip to Palo Alto against Stanford. The Irish will have a BCS bowl bid in their sights and should be able to close out with a win over the Cardinal.

Of course, all of the above represents the best-case scenario for Weis' program, and we all know that his team has not enjoyed much success lately.

Realistically, this schedule could not have come at a better time for Weis, who is perhaps on his last leg in South Bend.

He benefited from outstanding talent on offense his first two seasons, and it remains to be seen if players like Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardzija made Weis look good, or vise versa.

Improvement on the offensive side of things this year should be attainable, with the likes of quarterback Jimmy Clausen, wideouts Golden Tate and Michael Floyd and versatile tailback Armando Allen back in the fold. The offensive line also returns four of its five starters, and that could be a big factor as well.

Clausen showed flashes of brilliance last season as a sophomore, completing over 60 percent of his passes for over 3,100 yards. His 25 TDs passes were fine, but they were offset by a whopping 17 interceptions. He will need to make better decisions with the football in 2009.

Still, Tate and Floyd represent a dangerous duo on the outside. As a sophomore, Tate (5-11, 195) led the team in receptions (58), receiving yards (1,080) and TDs (10) and is poised for another big season. Just a freshman, the 6-3 Floyd (48 receptions, for 719 yards and seven TDs) was an impact player down the field as well. Allen led the team in rushing (585 yards), but also hauled in 50 receptions and combined for five TDs.

It remains to be seen if Weis can get the most out of this year's group in South Bend.

His job could very well depend on it.
 

Lumi

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Fighting an uphill battle

Fighting an uphill battle

Fighting an uphill battle


- This week, the BCS will hear a proposal by the Mountain West Conference to bring about an eight-team playoff system for the national title. The only problem is, while the BCS will go through the motions, its mind is already made up.

The old adage "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" has been replaced by "even if it is broke, who cares when money is involved?"

The SEC has already passed on the idea, making a statement to that extent following its spring meetings. While I understand the SEC's desire to maintain a stranglehold on one of the spots in the big game, when will common sense finally win out and bring about a change?

We all know the answer to that one. As long as television and bowl game revenue continue to flow freely to the power conferences, nothing will change. That point is underscored by the four-year, $500 million BCS package from ESPN that will go into effect in 2011. Now that ESPN has the rights to BCS games, don't expect anymore spirited "playoff" talk from the sports media giant. There is absolutely no way the powers that be will allow on-air personalities to engage in talk about the merits of such a thing, with half a billion invested on the other side of the argument. There is also the danger of ESPN manipulating things behind the scenes to set up the marquee matchups that it wants, considering the power the company has to influence what gets viewed nationally, and when.

The real losers in this deal are the smaller conferences. The Mountain West has refused to sign the deal, but that of course is a hollow threat, as some of that money will find its way to the MWC coffers and the conference isn't about to let that slip away on principle. It isn't the first time the conference has had a problem with ESPN. In 2004, the MWC declined a contract renewal with ESPN, as the deal heavily emphasized weekday games, something the conference wasn't interested in being a part of. That spawned the birth of the Mtn. and the jury is still out on the conference's exclusive television network.

Not sure if you have ever watched a game on the Mtn., and don't get me wrong, the network certainly tries, but its broadcasts are lacking in a lot of areas. Getting national exposure is a necessity if the Mountain West is to really make strides forward.

This will have to be done the hard way. Getting no support from the BCS will force the MWC to take the long road to reach its objective. What the Mountain West needs to do is sign the deal with ESPN (which it will inevitably do) and then go out and start beating top-tier programs from the six major conferences on a regular basis. Beefing up its schedule year-in and year-out will lend some credibility to its request to be taken seriously and treated as an equal. Running the table in a non-BCS conference isn't, in and of itself, worthy of a national title shot. However, knocking off highly regarded programs throughout a season and then finishing with an unblemished record would be hard to argue against. It will also help in recruiting and make things very uncomfortable for the BCS.

While not in the Mountain West, Boise State certainly made people stand up and notice with its upset win over Oklahoma a couple of years ago in the Fiesta Bowl. The Mountain West's elite, namely Utah and BYU, possess the talent to do the same. Just ask Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide, who were a game away from playing for the national title this past season, but instead were throttled by Utah in the Sugar Bowl (31-17), as the Utes capped off a 13-0 season with the win.

That was a statement win for Utah and the Mountain West to an extent. A proven track record over a sustained period of time is what is needed from not only Utah, but BYU as well. Throw a talent-rich TCU squad into the mix, and the Mountain West may just have three opportunities most seasons to make things interesting.

That being said, the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, Big East and Pac-10 are probably safe for now, but just how long that situation remains is tough to say.

It's not easy to ignore the elephant in the room, especially if the pachyderm is constantly stepping on your feet.
 

Roger Baltrey

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Nice write ups. Agree with everything except that Nevada is one of the weaker WAC schools and ND should have easy time in South Bend. QB for Nevada Kaepernick is stud and he can give ND fits. This should be a close game.
 

Lumi

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Ten College Football Wagers to Watch For in 2009

Ten College Football Wagers to Watch For in 2009

Ten College Football Wagers to Watch For in 2009

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn a bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the PapaJohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O?Brien?s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year?s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have the return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year?s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games. Plus SC has the usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach?s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of this series, so add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. However, coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and thus be better prepared. Florida State, who isn?t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense, buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is a nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams on that list. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, an emotionally worn-out Wake doesn?t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won?t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season?s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be equally settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 of the series and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after this encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won?t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with the pain of that first loss, Tulsa ran into a hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in a 40-point loss. (That?s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa?s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they will be off a huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with a perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less though and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in a 13-10 affair. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to their own 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in the Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have a legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and could set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of the ?08 season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, outgaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville?s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at his present location, he needs his team to rewatch the film of last season?s debacle for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ?Ville for granted, instead looking ahead to a season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for a right to play in the ?08 C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn?t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in the same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.
 
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