i understand on any given sunday--a team can string it all together--and voila! presto! bam! a W! i've rattled it around--backwards, sideways and so on, and just don't see where the s'hawks would have a chance--den has a better D--even w/o trevor pryce--granted SEA has alexander, but nothing else. den has no sharpe--but that just means the balls go elsewhere--portis, r smith, mccaffery--so on. please do tell, what you might be seing that i'm missing, if you like SEATTLE this week.
somebody make a case for SEA, please!
- Thread starter tball
- Start date
Play the puppy again angle. Got this one from Steele's book. It's 88-44 ATS from 1990-2001. You take any home dog who won the previous week on the road and is playing an opponent who was at home the previous week. Seattle qualifies here. Besides, 4.5 is a great dog number.
ok, trend aside....
ok, trend aside....
imagine there was no line--just pick THE SU WINNER--who do you like? can u take a no passing team like SEA?--and if so why? a huunch? feeling? bad karma? BAD TOFU?
ok, trend aside....
imagine there was no line--just pick THE SU WINNER--who do you like? can u take a no passing team like SEA?--and if so why? a huunch? feeling? bad karma? BAD TOFU?
Ok, I honestly can't make a case football-wise for Seattle. I can make quite a case for Denver...such as Den being a good team off an embarassing national TV loss...vs Sea being a bad team off an uncharacteristic win (pressure is off them, they revert to the norm). Also I believe reading that Sea's LB corps is pretty much all out due to injury. And Sea was the worst run defence in the league anyways (last time I checked, which was about 2 weeks ago). So that means Portis et al should really go to town on these guys.
However...all that being said...road favorites laying more than a FG are usually a very weak bet and this year has been no exception. When the line is -3? to -6? for the road team, this team ALWAYS looks far superior on paper. And I'm starting to go more by these numbers than football reasons, because it seems like most times when I break down a game by football reasons alone, I am on the wrong side of it and surprised at the outcome.
So I am pretty sure this game will be just be a pass for me.
However...all that being said...road favorites laying more than a FG are usually a very weak bet and this year has been no exception. When the line is -3? to -6? for the road team, this team ALWAYS looks far superior on paper. And I'm starting to go more by these numbers than football reasons, because it seems like most times when I break down a game by football reasons alone, I am on the wrong side of it and surprised at the outcome.
So I am pretty sure this game will be just be a pass for me.
whenever we think no way Team A...can beat or cover against TEAM X ...that team becomes dangerous in my opinion...but statistically i cant give you an argument as to why denver wont cover....good luck sunday...cooz
Tball--
You said imagine there is no line. But there IS a line and that's the great equalizer. About 15% of all games end on 3, and 4 is one of the top 5 point differentials so you cannot discount the spread.
As for no angles, how about current form? The last game is still the best indicator of current form and Seattle is coming off a road win (albeit over a subpar team) but they did handle them pretty good. And Denver is coming off an awful loss to a hated rival. Seattle has to be considered a major disappointment so far, but maybe last week the jump start they've needed. They've only given up 34 pts in their L3 games.
You said imagine there is no line. But there IS a line and that's the great equalizer. About 15% of all games end on 3, and 4 is one of the top 5 point differentials so you cannot discount the spread.
As for no angles, how about current form? The last game is still the best indicator of current form and Seattle is coming off a road win (albeit over a subpar team) but they did handle them pretty good. And Denver is coming off an awful loss to a hated rival. Seattle has to be considered a major disappointment so far, but maybe last week the jump start they've needed. They've only given up 34 pts in their L3 games.
The angle play is soild. Im still not sold on Denvers QB. Seems his Dad's name keeps him up there as one of the best. I dont buy it he's middle of the road QB.
Heavy Trends
Heavy Trends
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
LW the Seahawks put an end to their downward scoring trend with 27 1st half pts in their rout of the Cards.
In that one they held a 27-19 edge in FDs but undoubtedly the key was Seattle's 5-0 advantage in TOs.
Now they catch the Broncos off their epic Monday Nighter vs the Faders.
Host is 15-5-1 ATS in Denver games
Dog is 6-1-1 ATS in Bronco tilts this year.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS as a non-div RF of >2.5 pts
Seattle is 9-3 ATS as Nov dog.
Rufff Home Dog barks Seattle Seahawks +6
Heavy Trends
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
LW the Seahawks put an end to their downward scoring trend with 27 1st half pts in their rout of the Cards.
In that one they held a 27-19 edge in FDs but undoubtedly the key was Seattle's 5-0 advantage in TOs.
Now they catch the Broncos off their epic Monday Nighter vs the Faders.
Host is 15-5-1 ATS in Denver games
Dog is 6-1-1 ATS in Bronco tilts this year.
Broncos are 2-9 ATS as a non-div RF of >2.5 pts
Seattle is 9-3 ATS as Nov dog.
Rufff Home Dog barks Seattle Seahawks +6
this is a moot point--as i got slammed everywhere else---just to clarify what i was trying to say in offering the idea of no line---(to valuist)
yesterday the spread came into effect only....three times--out of 15 games!(WASH vs NYG, HOU vs JAX and KC and BUF). would you be happy-having gone 12-3 for the day?; granted you likely not choose EVERY winner. translation--if you can pick the winner, just straight up winner, you have also, most likely chosen the team who covers (as dogs need not cover when they upset). in all truth THIS trend might speak to more on how a lot of underdogs are SU winning this year. i do thank andf welcome ALL ideas and opinions, as different views present new and possibly exciting outcomes. thanx and GL to everyone-ts
yesterday the spread came into effect only....three times--out of 15 games!(WASH vs NYG, HOU vs JAX and KC and BUF). would you be happy-having gone 12-3 for the day?; granted you likely not choose EVERY winner. translation--if you can pick the winner, just straight up winner, you have also, most likely chosen the team who covers (as dogs need not cover when they upset). in all truth THIS trend might speak to more on how a lot of underdogs are SU winning this year. i do thank andf welcome ALL ideas and opinions, as different views present new and possibly exciting outcomes. thanx and GL to everyone-ts
This is a forgotten point.
Handicapping is not about point spreads its about picking winners. Once you decide who is more likely to win the game outright only then should the pointspread come into frame.
Handicapping is not about point spreads its about picking winners. Once you decide who is more likely to win the game outright only then should the pointspread come into frame.
